Article: Under-Delivering

[Boom Boom]

The Twins are setting themselves up again for another bad season. If they lose 95-100 games again, they'll have all the same reasons next offseason to not spend money as they do now.

 

No free agents want to come here. You can't pick up 20 wins by throwing money at free agents. We're going to fix this the right way, from the ground up. Lather, rinse, repeat.

 

Next year's free agent class isn't any better, BTW.

[Kwak]

Yes, I think this is actually greater cause for fear than just the usual, "Twins are being cheap," thing and it goes deeper than Correia. I'm concerned that Ryan and the Twins are just not on par with the rest of the league when it comes to accurately identifying starting pitching talent, whether in schoolboys or veteran MLB pitchers.

This is consistent with the past two seasons and likely 2013. The pitching was not only ineffective, but Twins-developed pitchers were typically below par (in MLB) with respect to: pickoffs, holding baserunners, and fielding their position. It seems as if the franchise treated pitchers as a lower priority than the other positions.

[Alex]

.....They have to make decisions on some people and this is the year to do that. They need to know what they can count on from guys like Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar, Chris Parmelee, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, Casey Fien, Cole De Vries, Tyler Robertson, Anthony Slama, and some others. .

 

I think very few people are complaining about the fact that they haven't added bats (even if an argument could be made for one up the middle) or even relief pitching. Fine. However to say that they didn't sign at least one decent starting pitcher so they can see what Liam Hendriks or Cole Devries can do is a bit of a stretch isn't it? Especially when like so many arguments here, you can refute it with "Keven Correia." It's what I don't get at all about the signing. If they're throwing in the towel, they might as well have saved $9M and let Devries/Deduno/Hendriks,et all pitch the next two years.

 

It's the same with any discussion here for those saying the Twins shouldn't spend more money because it won't help them. They're throwing $10M at Correia. Was there a worse overpayment for pitching this offseason?

[lightfoot789]

Based on injury reports (Free Agents) from last year and/or overall stuff - Who would? and should have the Twins signed? How much and what would you have paid for these guys? How much better are the guys you are going to name in comparison with who the Twins signed and or already have? Truly - besides Grienke - who? There was not one other #1 pitcher out there. What makes a very good #3? ERA? WHIP? INNINGS? - now how do they compare?

[ThePuck]

However to say that they didn't sign at least one decent starting pitcher so they can see what Liam Hendriks or Cole Devries can do is a bit of a stretch isn't it? Especially when like so many arguments here, you can refute it with "Keven Correia."

 

 

I actually debated a guy today on another site and he thinks the Correia signing is a good signing. Trending up, he says. In fact, here's a direct quote that almost made me lose my lunch: 'Honestly, I don't think Correia was a bad signing. In fact, I think he was a decent one.'

[Highabove]

There are thousands of Fans who are spending the Winter sending money to the Twins.

Why should we accept a half a** attempt at improving the product.

The Fans are not paying Small Market prices.

[Alex]

Based on injury reports (Free Agents) from last year and/or overall stuff - Who would? and should have the Twins signed? How much and what would you have paid for these guys? How much better are the guys you are going to name in comparison with who the Twins signed and or already have? Truly - besides Grienke - who? There was not one other #1 pitcher out there. What makes a very good #3? ERA? WHIP? INNINGS? - now how do they compare?

 

Most people now use different stats than these to evaluate pitchers because they rely heavily on the defense behind the pitcher and are not as predictive as other numbers but I'd start with K/BB and K/9. Pitcher wins are, frankly, very outdated even though some still value them.

 

Look at the massive difference in these numbers (most are from last season):

 

Correia: 4.7 K/9, 1.93 K/BB (also, by the way, he pitches in the national league, failing to account for league is significant. This signing is likely colossal failure)

Pelfrey: 4.9 K/9. 1.62 K/BB last full season (oh, national league, too)

Worley: 7.2 K/9, 2.28 K/BB (again NL, but I think most of us like this acquisition -- but he also wasn't a FA signing)

 

 

Marcum 7.9 K/9, 2.6 K/BB (NL)

Blanton 7.8 K/9, 4.9 K/BB (NL)

McCarthy 5.9 K/9 3.0 K/BB

 

BTW, Scott Diamond :4.6 K/9, 2.27 K/BB a lot of people wonder if he'll be able to sustain the success he had last season with those kinds of numbers. It's probably possible, but unlikely and rare.

 

See the difference? Even McCarthy has significantly better ratios than either of the FA pitchers we picked up. Hard to tell with Harden but that's a nice high risk/high reward signing -- not a satisfying one.

 

There's a huge difference in the talent of the two groups. IE, the pitchers some of us wanted and the pitchers the Twins signed in FA.

[Alex]

I actually debated a guy today on another site and he thinks the Correia signing is a good signing. Trending up, he says. In fact, here's a direct quote that almost made me lose my lunch: 'Honestly, I don't think Correia was a bad signing. In fact, I think he was a decent one.'

 

Yeah, Correia could easily end up losing a ton of games because he gets crushed by AL hitters, and the fact that he doesn't get to face pitchers means he could strike out less than four batters per game.

[peterb18]

You'll be hard-pressed to find anyone around here complaining about how JR has handled the minor league system since his return.

 

On the other hand, there's another facet to a MLB franchise... The one that actually takes the field here in Minnesota. Nobody here is saying that the Twins need to start trading off minor leaguers to fill these holes. Nobody here is saying that the front office should sacrifice the future by trading for today (in fact, there are calls for the exact opposite). We're saying that the team should spend some of the money given to them when taxpayers financed Target Field.

 

It's not an unreasonable request. Hell, it should be an expectation. The people of Minnesota threw hundreds of millions of dollars at the Twins to make them competitive in the modern market. Asking the Twins to hold up their side of the bargain by spending a very reasonable amount of money to acquire free agents so we don't have to suffer another 65 win season has nothing to do with faith in the future and has everything to do with expecting the team to give back something in return for the enormous gift given them by the taxpayers of Minnesota.

 

I agree with everything that above fellow states, except the 65 win season. It probably will be worse!!

[Kwak]

I must disagree with the comment about wins, they are important--especially on a bad team like the Twins. If anyone wins 10 games next year, that guy will have accomplished--and K's, BBs, or any of the other stats aren't going to be all that significant. The 2013 Twins will not be scoring a plethora of runs so that someone "gets lucky" because the hitters (hitters?! Yikes) bailed him out regularily.

[Alex]

I must disagree with the comment about wins, they are important--especially on a bad team like the Twins. If anyone wins 10 games next year, that guy will have accomplished--and K's, BBs, or any of the other stats aren't going to be all that significant. The 2013 Twins will not be scoring a plethora of runs so that someone "gets lucky" because the hitters (hitters?! Yikes) bailed him out regularily.

 

You've sort of made the point, though, that pitchers have little control over the actual win stat. Worley could pitch well enough that the Twins win 10 or more behind him.

 

Part of the point, though, is that wins aren't all that predictive of next season, and predictive is what you want when going after FA. So, Marcum and Blanton should have better chances to put the Twins in situations to win games than Pelfrey or Correia.

 

Which brings about the ultimate concern that the Twins aren't even looking at a stat that is now considered a vary basic indicator of future success in their hunt for FA pitching. Or they don't value it enough to pay for it.

[Chance]

1) the idea that top FA don't want to come here may be right but we won't know for certain unless they are offered contracts and it has been reported that a lot of the middle ground pitchers that the twins talked to never received an offer from the twins. You never know until you try. If Marcum asks for 2-3 years at 8 mil a year and the rest of the league is offer 1 year for 10 mil, don't you think he would consider the twins if we gave him what he was looking for?

 

2) if its tough to convince people to play in Minnesota you might have to loosen the check book more than other clubs. I think we all can agree that the twins can afford a $100 mil payroll. Instead of sitting on the extra 20 mil they could have "over paid" to get quality pitchers here.

 

 

3) Seth made the comment earlier that fans would be happy if the twins spent 2 years 50 mil on correria because the team was spending money but (I know he wasn't serious) the real issue is that instead of paying a 3 year 30 million dollar contract for an above average pitcher that could significantly help the team, they would rather pay 2 years 10-12 mil for a below average pitcher with no value or upside over the 5 AAAA pitchers we saw late last season and who will be lucky to still be on the roster by seasons end because they didn't want to "over pay."

 

4) It's ridiculous how they refuse the to spend money but the money they do spend is often on garbage which we would be better off without. In reality Ryan said that they would refuse to over pay for a player but they did just that for Correria and they probably didn't even have someone bidding against them.

[lightfoot789]

Let's say I agree with you about Wins verse Performance (K/9). Are you saying you that if Corriea wins 12 to 15 games for Twins and has limited K's you will find him a failure? The Twins have been a pitch to contact team for decades and won a few WS that way. I want wins by any means neccessary. As you said - Diamond wasn't dynamic with K's either, but Twins fans enjoyed his outings.

 

In regards to NL vs AL - Marcum pitched in NL last year / Grienke pitched in NL last year / Jackson NL / - These are all guys that the people on this board craved in the off season. You give DH's too much credit as it pertains to pitchers having to face a real extra hitter. The NL to AL transition is overrated and vice verse. If you can pitch - you can pitch. I will take wins over high K rate and giving up HRs and BB's any day. ERA & WHIP is most important stat with pitching besides Wins. Can't lose if guys aren't on base. PERIOD

[Alex]

Let's say I agree with you about Wins verse Performance (K/9). Are you saying you that if Corriea wins 12 to 15 games for Twins and has limited K's you will find him a failure? The Twins have been a pitch to contact team for decades and won a few WS that way. I want wins by any means neccessary. As you said - Diamond wasn't dynamic with K's either, but Twins fans enjoyed his outings. In regards to NL vs AL - Marcum pitched in NL last year / Grienke pitched in NL last year / Jackson NL / - These are all guys that the people on this board craved in the off season. You give DH's too much credit as it pertains to pitchers having to face a real extra hitter. The NL to AL transition is overrated and vice verse. If you can pitch - you can pitch. I will take wins over high K rate and giving up HRs and BB's any day. ERA & WHIP is most important stat with pitching besides Wins. Can't lose if guys aren't on base. PERIOD

 

Still missing the point. We're looking at it PREDICTIVELY. Which stats can be used to predict success (not guarantee it -- nothing does that)? You're picking those that are less predictable.

 

Not to mention that I pointed out which pitchers played in the NL. My point with Correia is that he's terrible in the NL....Oh, and how did the shift work out for Jason Marquis? I'm not saying it can't work, but it's not an advantage, whereas going the other way is.

[ThePuck]

Let's say I agree with you about Wins verse Performance (K/9). Are you saying you that if Corriea wins 12 to 15 games for Twins and has limited K's you will find him a failure? The Twins have been a pitch to contact team for decades and won a few WS that way. I want wins by any means neccessary. As you said - Diamond wasn't dynamic with K's either, but Twins fans enjoyed his outings.

 

In regards to NL vs AL - Marcum pitched in NL last year / Grienke pitched in NL last year / Jackson NL / - These are all guys that the people on this board craved in the off season. You give DH's too much credit as it pertains to pitchers having to face a real extra hitter. The NL to AL transition is overrated and vice verse. If you can pitch - you can pitch. I will take wins over high K rate and giving up HRs and BB's any day. ERA & WHIP is most important stat with pitching besides Wins. Can't lose if guys aren't on base. PERIOD

 

Marcum, Jackson and especially Grienke have already had success in the AL. As far as the comparison between AL and NL. Pitchers in the AL get to face players dedicated to hitting 140+ times a seasons. Pitchers in the NL get to face pitchers at least 100+. You think the difference is exaggerated?

[Mike Sixel]

Two pitchers are available in the offseason....they are the same age, they want the same money, they pitched the same innings, neither has ever been hurt. One won 19 games, gave up 5 runs a start, and his offense scored 7 runs a start. The other won 6 games, gave up 2 or 3 runs in every start, and his offense scored 3 runs per start. Which pitcher is the one you want to sign in FA?

[Brock Beauchamp]

The NL to AL transition is overrated and vice verse.

 

No, it's not and there are mountains of statistics that show it.

[old nurse]

Two pitchers are available in the offseason....they are the same age, they want the same money, they pitched the same innings, neither has ever been hurt. One won 19 games, gave up 5 runs a start, and his offense scored 7 runs a start. The other won 6 games, gave up 2 or 3 runs in every start, and his offense scored 3 runs per start. Which pitcher is the one you want to sign in FA?

How about realism in a scenario? Phil Hughes 18-8 with an ERA of 4.19 . Great year wins wise. average ERA. Was he a better pitcher than the guy who went 13-12 with a 2.27 ERA? I will take the latter guy, aka Felix Hernandez

[snepp]

NL Pitchers: .330 OPS

AL DH's: .760 OPS

 

 

For a bit of perspective, that would be like replacing Drew Butera......with Prince Fielder.

[lightfoot789]

I guess I am wondering if WHIP is an overated stat. It tells me who gets hit too often and who puts runners on base to often as well. I understand the sabermetrics with the other stats. You would rather take a chance on Marcum despite injuries and pay him for 3 years even if he ends up staying injured - because he has high K Rate and is more likely to win games. He has been healthy 2 of last 4 years.

 

I'd rather stay with a cheaper unknown who at least has potential of eating up 6+ innings (Pefrey / Haren) if healthy. If these guys get to old form - you have 2 steals. Correia at least eats up innings and serves as a seviceable #5 or Healthy Bullpen Long Reliever.

 

Now I see how Jack Morris was omitted from HOF (lol). Sabes didn't hit the standard despite being a winner in big games.

[lightfoot789]

You wrote:

NL Pitchers: .330 OPS

AL DH's: .760 OPS

For a bit of perspective, that would be like replacing Drew Butera......with Prince Fielder.

 

 

Whats the OPS in interleague games is the stat you should be showing me.

What is the NL DH's OPS?

What is the AL Pitchers OPS? when hitting?

Does that stat show that only NL pitchers can't pitch?

as you said, that would be like replacing Drew Butera......with Prince Fielder.

[Top Gun]

Play fantasy baseball and you will learn alot about baseball. How to win, what players are good and who is not. Who to keep and who to trade.

[Alex]

I guess I am wondering if WHIP is an overated stat. It tells me who gets hit too often and who puts runners on base to often as well. I understand the sabermetrics with the other stats. You would rather take a chance on Marcum despite injuries and pay him for 3 years even if he ends up staying injured - because he has high K Rate and is more likely to win games. He has been healthy 2 of last 4 years.

 

I'd rather stay with a cheaper unknown who at least has potential of eating up 6+ innings (Pefrey / Haren) if healthy. If these guys get to old form - you have 2 steals. Correia at least eats up innings and serves as a seviceable #5 or Healthy Bullpen Long Reliever.

 

Now I see how Jack Morris was omitted from HOF (lol). Sabes didn't hit the standard despite being a winner in big games.

 

Not to turn this into a Morris HOF debate, it does add to the discussion of pitcher evaluation. Here's a comparison of the run support Jack Morris got when compared both with Bert Blyleven and his own peers and how that affected his record: The Effects of Run Support | Mario Soto's Blog | FanNation.com. The TLDR version is that if they flipped run support, Blyleven would have been an easier and earlier inclusion and Morris wouldn't have a chance. I love Morris for Game 7, but I realize two things. One, he got the win even in that game because his fielder, Chuck Knoblauch faked Lonnie Smith out, saving a run (and what would have been the game), and two, he'd be by far the worst pitcher elected to the HOF. That said, I have nothing against people that vote for him because he performed well overall in the World Series games he pitched in.

 

But, back to your question about WHIP, one of the problems with it is it relies again on defense. It's not terrible, but a good defense is going to prevent hits as well on balls that should be hits and a terrible defense is going to turn should be outs into hits.

 

As for innings eaters, I like what Aaron Gleeman says about durabilty. You're only durable until you're not. One one of his and Bonnes's offseason podcasts last year, they debated the value of Pavano. Bonnes called Pavano an innings eater. Of course, he ate very few innings last season. Certainly some pitchers are more fragile but any pitcher is just an injury away from no longer eating innings.

[Alex]

You wrote:

NL Pitchers: .330 OPS

AL DH's: .760 OPS

For a bit of perspective, that would be like replacing Drew Butera......with Prince Fielder.

 

 

Whats the OPS in interleague games is the stat you should be showing me.

What is the NL DH's OPS?

What is the AL Pitchers OPS? when hitting?

Does that stat show that only NL pitchers can't pitch?

as you said, that would be like replacing Drew Butera......with Prince Fielder.

'

 

I can't tell if this is a joke.... It's not the NL pitchers can't pitch. It's that NL pitchers don't face the same competition and their NL numbers will likely drop when they move to the AL.

[snepp]

Would Correia be, even if completely healthy, an "innings eater" anyway? You still have to perform well enough to pitch deep into games.

[ThePuck]

'

 

I can't tell if this is a joke.... It's not the NL pitchers can't pitch. It's that NL pitchers don't face the same competition and their NL numbers will likely drop when they move to the AL.

 

I don't think it's a joke...I think it's a grasp at straws to defend a point of view that really has no legs to stand on :-)

[lightfoot789]

Not to turn this into a Morris HOF debate, it does add to the discussion of pitcher evaluation. Here's a comparison of the run support Jack Morris got when compared both with Bert Blyleven and his own peers and how that affected his record: The Effects of Run Support | Mario Soto's Blog | FanNation.com. The TLDR version is that if they flipped run support, Blyleven would have been an easier and earlier inclusion and Morris wouldn't have a chance. I love Morris for Game 7, but I realize two things. One, he got the win even in that game because his fielder, Chuck Knoblauch faked Lonnie Smith out, saving a run (and what would have been the game), and two, he'd be by far the worst pitcher elected to the HOF. That said, I have nothing against people that vote for him because he performed well overall in the World Series games he pitched in.

 

But, back to your question about WHIP, one of the problems with it is it relies again on defense. It's not terrible, but a good defense is going to prevent hits as well on balls that should be hits and a terrible defense is going to turn should be outs into hits.

 

As for innings eaters, I like what Aaron Gleeman says about durabilty. You're only durable until you're not. One one of his and Bonnes's offseason podcasts last year, they debated the value of Pavano. Bonnes called Pavano an innings eater. Of course, he ate very few innings last season. Certainly some pitchers are more fragile but any pitcher is just an injury away from no longer eating innings.

 

 

So True about injury away

 

To your point about defense - If our defense sucks we have bigger problems than just pitching, because the offense is only so good.

[ThePuck]

Would Correia be, even if completely healthy, an "innings eater" anyway? You still have to perform well enough to pitch deep into games.

 

 

What if they tried something unconventional? Let all his games be complete games so we save the bullpen? They've tossed this season away anyway, why not try it :-)

[snepp]

What if they tried something unconventional? Let all his games be complete games so we save the bullpen? They've tossed this season away anyway, why not try it :-)

 

Not possible, arms fall off after 100 pitches, it's science.

[snepp]

To your point about defense - If our defense sucks we have bigger problems than just pitching, because the offense is only so good.

 

Sad, but unfortunately true. It's unlikely the offense will be any better than last year, with a good chance of being worse.