Article: Under-Delivering

[Alex]

I was listening to the MLB station in my car and heard the announcers say that Loshe actually had better numbers than Grienke.

I'd rather have him as a short term fix. He's older yes - but for all the saber blog GM's - He is actually a better fix than Marcum.

I'm a new Twins fan - Would he come back and why did we let him go?

BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

868

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

114

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

1.196

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

8.5

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

0.8

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

2.3

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

8.5

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

3.70

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

ZACH GRIENKE

 

BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable]

864

134

1.090

8.2

0.8

1.6

6.1

3.76

[/TABLE]

KYLE LOSHE

 

Lohse has had some good years, no doubt.

 

Of course, you realize Lohse has NO ONE make him an offer. He's said as much.

 

There's a particular reason he's not a better fix, especially for th Twins even if we thought the Twins would be interested in him (bad blood there, though) and it's the reason no one is interested in him. He costs a draft pick to sign since he received a qualifying offer.

 

Not to mention, if Marcum is out of the Twins price range, Lohse certainly is even if he didn't come with the additional tax of a draft pick.

[TheLeviathan]

So the moral of those two stories is adding more context provides more insight about a player's talents. Which is, you know, important when signing them to lucrative contracts.

[Willihammer]

Lohse is an interesting pitcher coming off two very solid years. The first thing that's helped him has been walking fewer guys. But his strikeout rate, batted ball-type rates, plate discipline, and even his pitch selection, movement and velocity have all stayed very close to career averages. The only thing that's changed has been the league and the park, and his BABIP, which has sunk to the .265 range the last two years. So his ERA has outperformed his FIP by about a full run each of the past two years. But, for his career, his FIP matches his ERA exactly. Add it all up, and I think he's a great candidate for regression.

[lightfoot789]

Definitely not then. There is no one out there now worth giving up draft picks for. My Bad

 

I am actually content (not thrilled) with what we have, and I'm excited to see what the prospects (Gipson / Henriks / Mays) have to offer (Lumps and bumps and all). I would like to add that it would be awesome if the Twins actually had the CR Kernels play a game or more at Target Field and reward fans with at least that pleasure and glimpse of the future. It can still be done. Might get more fans

[twinsnorth49]

At this point Lohse is not worth the pick considering where this team is headed, let alone the money.

[Willihammer]

The guys to target, in my opinion, were all of Baker, Villanueva, McCarthy and Liriano. They could have matched their current offers, thrown in four $5m signing bonuses to boot, and still barely cracked 90m payroll. If everything clicks, heck if 2/4 click, you have a pretty formidable rotation, and then you get to roll the dice again in a 2nd year for 1/2 price (except possibly with Baker).

[cmathewson]

I'm not going to defend Mr. Ryan for not getting someone like Jackson at that price, but I'm good with not giving some of the contracts that have been given. And, I'm very hopeful for Liam Hendriks to take a step forward in 2013. I'm very excited to see how Kyle Gibson does as he breaks into the big leagues. Can Scott Diamond come close to duplicating his 2012 season? What do the Twins really have in Alex Meyer and Trevor May? How quickly can some of those college relievers get up here? Will Anthony Slama get a chance? There are reasons for optimism, and that's not even talking about the likes of Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee and others. I certainly wouldn't give up on Brian Dozier at this point.

 

I don't think the Twins were legitimately going to compete in 2013 regardless. Detroit is too good. But I am very excited about the direction of the team. And frankly, young, talented players are much more valuable than just spending money to spend money.

 

Sometimes I feel like a few people would be happier if the Twins would have given Correia 2 years and $50 million because then the payroll would be back at $100 million and "at least the Pohlad's won't pocket it."

 

 

I agree with this. The reality: The free-agent market was thin. Sanchez was the best guy available for anything close to what the Twins could pay and Detroit overpaid for him by at least $5 million a year. I would have liked to get McCarthy, but he's not had one healthy season in his whole career. Ryan did the cost/benefit analysis and decided to sign the guys he did. He traded what he could trade for pitching without completely ransacking the roster.

 

One thing that is taken for granted by all those down on Correia is missing bats is the only valuable thing in a pitcher. The stat I'd like to see is pitches per out. I don't know if anyone even tracks this, but it is clearly what the Twins care about. To get innings out of a guy, he has to get a lot of quick outs. Strikeout pitchers throw a lot of pitches. So they end up eating fewer innings than guys who pitch to contact. The Twins needed a guy who would give them innings. In this market, it meant getting a guy who didn't strike guys out. To have both, you'd need to spend between $80 and $100 million and Ryan was not going to do that, nor should he. So he made a modest investment to get an innings eater. Correia might not win more than 10 games, but he will take pressure off the bullpen and the rest of the staff, which is a work in progress with a lot of young guys coming off of surgery.

 

You can say all you want about what Ryan should have done. This is Nelson's third polemic on the topic (counting filling in for the Geek on the podcast). But unless you're prepared to do the cost/benefit analysis of what was available, the words are sung with discord. The Royals acquired pitching by depleting their deep farm system. That wasn't an option for the Twins either. Aside from center fielders, the Twins did not have a lot of surplus talent at any one position. I for one am glad they didn't send someone like Sano to the Rays for Shields. Let's see how this plays out. Sometimes fans have to be patient to ultimately get what they want.

[Brandon]

CMathewson, the post directly above yours disproves your points. Baker, Villanueva, McCarthy and Liriano were all potential solid signing cnadidates that TR could have paid more to get and had on short term contracts which is what he wanted to begin with. Say we sign Villanueva and Marcum instead of Corriea and Pelfry (though I am ok with Pelfry signing he might turn out) . That might cost us a few million more this year but we would be more competetive with them. Also with all of the young and cheap talent on the way from the minors, (Meyer, May, Gibson, Hendricks, Barrios) plus Diamond and Worely, we will have money available to pay one starting pitcher 10 million or so if they work out. That would give us a deep rotation in the future. (Also regarding cheap talent comming up there are several position players too so the entire team payroll will go downin 2014 and 2015.) I like most of what Ryan got accomplished. I am perplexed by what pitching they targeted and that they don't seem interested in pursuing other opportunities to improve the club (Marcum SP, Sanchez 2B, Johnson 2B and more) and that for a team so penny conscious they seem inclined to start Hicks in CF right out the gate instead of waiting 2 months in AAA for the FA and arbitration clock to set one year later.

[TheLeviathan]

But unless you're prepared to do the cost/benefit analysis of what was available, the words are sung with discord. t.

 

There are 10 pages of solid material to refute the overly-wordy crap you posted that is best reduced to this statement.

[Big City]

 

Not to mention, if Marcum is out of the Twins price range, Lohse certainly is even if he didn't come with the additional tax of a draft pick.

 

A draft pick, yes, but it would only be a # 42/43/44/45, somewhere in that range since their first pick is protected. Still, I doubt Lohse is the type of target the Twins would go after being his age and demands in years and dollars.

 

People have become very impatient with the Twins this offseason but there's still a few decent FA SP's on the market. Consider if the Twins sign Marcum and Saunders, would this offseason be a bust? If you're a GM, would you sign your starting pitching depth or your rotation locks first? Common sense would say those depth SP's wouldn't sign unless they saw an opportunity in the rotation. If the Twins had signed Marcum and Saunders first, would Pelfrey and Correia signed? I say, probably not. I think a rotation of...

 

Marcum

Diamond

Worley

Saunders

Pelfrey/Hendricks/Correia

 

...has some potential.

[Alex]

Thers's no way this FA market was thin for starting pitching, no way. If you think this, you need to take a look at the market in previous years and remember this one for next.

 

Though, if you're the Twins and want decent pitching for under $5M your market will always be thin.

[old nurse]

Is the fascination with Lirano and Villaneuva the high K/9 totals? The last two years as a starter Villanueva had an ERA over 4.5. His xfip overall and his overall ERA were about equal. Other than strikeouts, what does he bring to the team?

[lightfoot789]

I like what CMathewSon has to say. "Patience is a Virtue" It is not like we have been waiting for a good team for countless years. You made the playoffs 3 years ago. And in the playoffs anything can happen. Our time is coming.

 

You could be the CUBS - PADRES - ROYALS - PIRATES. You are the Twins who have shown, they know how to win - even if not during these last 2 seasons. "Patience is a Virtue"

[ThePuck]

Yes, anything can happen in the playoffs, but we're 2-15 the last 5 playoff series, we've lost 12 straight playoff games and we've been swept the last three appearances

[Mike Sixel]

Just curious, how many bad years should we endure before we lose patience?

 

I think some people seem to think this is an either or thing. Either they sign FA, or they do the draft thing. I don't see anyone here clamoring for them to not draft players. I don't see anyone here clamoring for them to gut the farm system. I see people suggesting they sign some legit starting FA pitching. If you think this market is thin, wait until next year, when it is projected to be thinner. How does signing a legit pitcher for real money this year hurt them, at all? They are under budget. The budget will go down next year, while income goes up. So, it can't be about having money next year, or even the year after (when Doumit and Willingham's deals are up). So, how does "overspending" by paying market prices this year hurt them at all?

 

And, if one of the reasons players won't sign here is the Twins are bad (which I don't believe, but some of you do), what makes you think a pitcher would sign here next year if they have a third bad year in a row? What makes you think Morneau would re-sign here?

[Alex]

I like what CMathewSon has to say. "Patience is a Virtue" It is not like we have been waiting for a good team for countless years. You made the playoffs 3 years ago. And in the playoffs anything can happen. Our time is coming

 

This isn't about not fielding a good team....

 

It's about not even making simple moves to field an interesting, competitive team for the next season.

 

It's about doing the exact opposite of what the stated benefit would be from a stadium funded heavily with taxpayer dollars.

 

Most of us realized they weren't going to the World Series this year, or even the playoffs, but give me something to watch. Give me a reason to come out to the field rather than the beautiful field itself, which by the way, is going to see another precipitous drop in attendance this year if this is how the offseason remains.

 

One argument here is that FA don't want to come to the Twins. I don't buy it, but guess what you need to do to get them here if that IS the case? You need to pay them actually money and you need to be competitive. A team that pushes .500 next season would make it look like the Twins are at least interested in being competitive and not putting all their chips in for a farm system that looks promising but may never arrive at the level we hope.

[TheLeviathan]

A team that pushes .500 next season would make it look like the Twins are at least interested in being competitive and not putting all their chips in for a farm system that looks promising but may never arrive at the level we hope.

 

Not to mention the fact that Shaun Marcum and Kelly Johnson wouldn't cost more than what the Pohlad's will currently be pocketing and neither of them are blocking any prospects. There is no defensible reason not to take these gambles.

[Alex]

Listening to G and G podcast now. Here are the rough numbers: Gleeman mentions he remembers something like thirty pitchers better than Correia available. Also that about 10 signed 1 year deals. So, how is the market so thin again?

 

They also mention, based on Wolfson's info, based on another podcast that the Twins never really made offers to many of the players we've talked about, essentially refuting the point that some have been arguing that we don't know whether or not they've made offers.

[old nurse]

 

1. A Pohlad cruise with 400 of his friends. No media members, and probably not you either.

2. They found their bong from college and are sitting around stoned. They are now thinking that Linecum is a great idea to sign. They wonder why his agent won't return their call.

3. They forgot they traded Hardy. They thought when he comes off the dl he would fill one of the two holes in MI

4.. Not being fluent in Spanish they thought they somehow got Espinosa rather than Escobar. That guy with the last name starting with E will come around soon and play like his former self.

[old nurse]

Listening to G and G podcast now. Here are the rough numbers: Gleeman mentions he remembers something like thirty pitchers better than Correia available. Also that about 10 signed 1 year deals. So, how is the market so thin again?

 

They also mention, based on Wolfson's info, based on another podcast that the Twins never really made offers to many of the players we've talked about, essentially refuting the point that some have been arguing that we don't know whether or not they've made offers.

Where is there a list published of players they talked to?

[Alex]

Where is there a list published of players they talked to?

 

Listen to the podcast with Wolfson. It's the best information you're going to get on the topic. It's discussed at length. #73

[lightfoot789]

G & G are great, but I doubt they have the sources Buster Onley has. I haven't heard of this list on any other MLB site. And the answer to the above post is 3 to 4 years before you jump ship and ask for a mans head.

 

Found a great site for 2012 stats: MLB Stats - MLB Team Isolated Power on TeamRankings.com

 

What we definitely need moving forward are Power Bats and Pitching like we did in 2012 draft class.

Our current Farm Pitchers and this years top draft Pick (2013) will allow us to simulate what the Rays have done for recent years. Grow strong pitching from within and thru trades. We are set up to be very good thru 2020 at the rate we are going. Just not in 2013

If we can get a few other pitching "Top" prospects thru mid season trades (M/W/M) and we are golden. Love where we are headed.

[Alex]

The source is Darren Wolfson who's pretty plugged in, and they're referencing him, just to be clear.

[old nurse]

Listen to the podcast with Wolfson. It's the best information you're going to get on the topic. It's discussed at length. #73

 

Once again. If you were looking for a pretty darn good pitcher there really wasn't a whole lot out there. Using WAR on fan graphs, not the best but not the worst statistic, there were 11free agent pitchers above 2 for both of the last two years. If you look on their leader board 2.4 is the median WAR for all pitchers pitching a minimum of 120 innings. So if you were expecting the Twins to go after good pitching, it doesn't matter the number, it matters who they went after.

[Alex]

Once again. If you were looking for a pretty darn good pitcher there really wasn't a whole lot out there. Using WAR on fan graphs, not the best but not the worst statistic, there were 11free agent pitchers above 2 for both of the last two years. If you look on their leader board 2.4 is the median WAR for all pitchers pitching a minimum of 120 innings. .

 

I'm sure we can mince data and statistics (For example 2.0 WAR is representative of starter at any position, so calling it the median, is, imo, misleading, especially when the bottom is not zero).

 

Even if we agree to use yours, which I will for this post, then we agree that it would be the same as last year. Not better, not thin. Fine. Moving on.

 

If you look on their leader board 2.4 is the median WAR for all pitchers pitching a minimum of 120 innings..

 

Please go here: Minnesota Twins 2012 Pitching Statistics - ESPN (I used this for a nice easy sort)

 

You'll note that the Twins starting staff had a combined negative WAR, and it's not really even close, sadly.

 

Only one pitcher, Scott Diamond, had a WAR over 2 (2.2). Deduno and Deveries were the only other two positive WAR pitchers at a whopping .6 and .2. Nick Blackburn was a -2.3 WAR pitcher.

 

So adding "average" pitcher 2.4 WAR is a huge net gain to replace Blackburn, The equivalent of adding a HOF pitcher to most staffs.

 

Do you know what Correia's WAR was? -.1. While WAR is an ambiguous stat, it points out why people are flabbergasted by the signing. Cole Devries in that spot would be an improvement and save $9M dollars.

 

So if you were expecting the Twins to go after good pitching, it doesn't matter the number, it matters who they went after.

 

I'd argue it matters who they got, and I'd also point out that based on reports, they didn't really go after even decent pitching. Whether or not that's true, it doesn't matter at this point. The biggest chunk of money used this offseason was poorly spent and they sat on the rest <or> didn't make offers enticing enough to get anyone better. As such, we have a rotation that will likely still be the worst in the league next year.

[Ultima Ratio]

Correia might not win more than 10 games, but he will take pressure off the bullpen and the rest of the staff, which is a work in progress with a lot of young guys coming off of surgery.

 

 

He might not win more than 5 games. Seriously.

[old nurse]

I'

So adding "average" pitcher 2.4 WAR is a huge net gain to replace Blackburn, The equivalent of adding a HOF pitcher to most staffs.

 

 

 

 

I'd argue it matters who they got, and I'd also point out that based on reports, they didn't really go after even decent pitching. Whether or not that's true, it doesn't matter at this point. The biggest chunk of money used this offseason was poorly spent and they sat on the rest <or> didn't make offers enticing enough to get anyone better. As such, we have a rotation that will likely still be the worst in the league next year.

 

There are many different reports from other writers besides Doogie in the airwaves. Heyman, Bollinger, LEN III all put out many little snippets. The Twins did have a bad rotation last year. The only name ever reported that would make a significant difference in the staff the Twins were interested in was Dempster. There was a note one time they talked to Sanchez. Saunders, Meyers, Lannan et al are not top of the rotation guys. Adding them would not have made a significant difference. So you are correct, they did not really go after decent pitching.

[lightfoot789]

Love the thought process - I'm just saying .......... Have Faith

Read: Why Cheap = Smart in 2013 - Puckett's Pond - A Minnesota Twins Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

[Nick Nelson]

Correia might not win more than 10 games, but he will take pressure off the bullpen and the rest of the staff, which is a work in progress with a lot of young guys coming off of surgery.

This sounds like something we might have read about Jason Marquis a year ago.

 

You can say all you want about what Ryan should have done. This is Nelson's third polemic on the topic (counting filling in for the Geek on the podcast). But unless you're prepared to do the cost/benefit analysis of what was available, the words are sung with discord. The Royals acquired pitching by depleting their deep farm system. That wasn't an option for the Twins either. Aside from center fielders, the Twins did not have a lot of surplus talent at any one position. I for one am glad they didn't send someone like Sano to the Rays for Shields. Let's see how this plays out. Sometimes fans have to be patient to ultimately get what they want.

No one has suggested that the Twins trade valuable assets to acquire pitching. This thread is about free agency, and the only thing that the team needs to give up to get better players through this avenue is money that otherwise will not be spent. In that light, the cost vs. benefit analysis that you suggest changes in dynamic. The cost is insignificant in the grand scheme, and the benefit is a better product and a demonstrated commitment to getting better after two brutally awful years.

 

If people think the Twins are going to magically return to contention in 2014 on the shoulders of their current prospects they are living in a dream world; as has been mentioned before, they'll likely have the same excuses for sitting out free agency in a year as they do now. Why should we accept four straight seasons of non-competitive baseball without any meaningful effort being put toward giving fans an interesting and watchable product in the meantime?

 

There are 10 pages of solid material to refute the overly-wordy crap you posted that is best reduced to this statement.

There's no need for this kind of vitriol in every post, Lev. You can disagree with people's points without using such insulting language.

[jokin]

It could have been worse. He could have said MSNBC.

 

Or Al Gorezeera...