Article: Under-Delivering

[drjim]

There is no reason they can't sink some of that excess cost into more riskier investments that might pay off long term. There is no longer the option to spend at will in the international or amatuer ranks, so basically this money is being pocketed. As paying customers - we damn sure can bitch about money being pocketed after some explicit promises about changing the team's outlook.

 

Shaun Marcum at 3 years cripples NOTHING. There is no reason not to do this. There is no backload of AAA pitchers he is getting in the way of. Hell, all he does is guarantee Blackburn doesn't make the rotation our of ST. I fail to see the downside.

 

OK, if you go 3/30 on Marcum and he gets hurt, you don't think $10 mil+ of dead money in '15 could cause a problem? This is of course speculation as we have no idea what kind of contract he is looking for or has been offered or even what his medicals actually look like. I wouldn't have a problem with signing him to this type of deal, but I also don't have a problem with not signing him and seeing what you actually have with Diamond/Worley/Hendriks/Gibson and eventually May/Meyer with the other fillers currently on the roster.

 

I personally don't care what the payroll is I just want the team to be as a good as possible with an appropriate balance of current success and future considerations. I never had big plans for this year so I would be hesitant to take a risk that might allow the team to scratch out a few extra wins this season at the cost of bigger downside in the future. I don't think a guy like Marcum is so great that they need to lock him up this year. There will be a guy or two like him next offseason they can go after if the team is in a better position to contend.

[snepp]

I am waiting for proof that any free agent wanted to listen to the Twins make them an offer.

 

I have reports supporting the beliefs that they either offered crap, or offered nothing at all. Other than your opinion, what do you have to support it? If it's out there I want to see it.

 

I'd love to be able to defend the front office by saying that free agents just hate us and refuse to play in Minnesota, despite TR offering to "make it rain," but the information available right now clearly suggests otherwise.

[snepp]

are you talking about articles like the kind I posted on page two of this thread?

 

Similar, but the ones I'm referring to go back to around the time that the stadium debate and the extend-or-trade Santana discussions were at their peak.

[ThePuck]

OK, if you go 3/30 on Marcum and he gets hurt, you don't think $10 mil+ of dead money in '15 could cause a problem? This is of course speculation as we have no idea what kind of contract he is looking for or has been offered or even what his medicals actually look like. I wouldn't have a problem with signing him to this type of deal, but I also don't have a problem with not signing him and seeing what you actually have with Diamond/Worley/Hendriks/Gibson and eventually May/Meyer with the other fillers currently on the roster.

 

I personally don't care what the payroll is I just want the team to be as a good as possible with an appropriate balance of current success and future considerations. I never had big plans for this year so I would be hesitant to take a risk that might allow the team to scratch out a few extra wins this season at the cost of bigger downside in the future. I don't think a guy like Marcum is so great that they need to lock him up this year. There will be a guy or two like him next offseason they can go after if the team is in a better position to contend.

 

Payroll is gonna be at 80M this year...we'll drop at least another 20M when Morneau and Willingham are gone....and we're not bringing in any high price talent. We could have pre-arbitration eligible or 1st year arbitration players at every starting spot besides Mauer. We're talking Sano, Rosario, Parmelee, Florimon, Hicks, Arcia, maybe Benson. Along with Gibson, May, Meyer, Worley, Diamond.

 

Why would 10M stifle us in 2015?

[johnnydakota]

I can give the Twins "some" leeway on this. After all the years of success and picking at the end of the draft, that talent pool was bound to dry up, even if I do think part of it is being behind in terms of talent evaluation. At least, have some promising young hitters in the system now that we can look forward to seeing in a couple of years.

 

And how many can lay down a bunt?Advance a runner , hit the cutoff man, or how many middle infielders do we have that have under 30+ errors?how many pitchers refine or learn a new pitch since being signed? i find the entire system lacking and needing replacing .

Ihave thought for some time now that we need to fire everyone from David ST.Pete right down to the janator in the instructional leaque , because for some time now kids arnt ready when they get to the show , even after sitting year after year in the minors...

[johnnydakota]

We do agree, all I was saying is I don't think the blame goes to either Pohlad OR Ryan, but both of them. In an interview with Pohlad, it was said that during rebuilding years the percentage of revenue spent on salary goes down. It's policy that's been in place for quite some time. Ryan does the spending, and he's dropped payroll 32M since he's come back as GM. Not sure how much of the drop was due to policy and how much was Ryan not doing what's necessary due to stubbornness

 

And i believe Terry was brought back specifically to lower payroll. I think Pohlad gives the fans lipp service while telling Ryan to slash payroll

[snepp]

Hammer, Doumit, and Correia currently come off the books after 2014, where would a 2015 budget crunch come from? They aren't likely going to spend any big free agent money, so any significant budget increases would have to come internally. Other than Worley going through arbitration, where are the big ticket obligations going to come from?

 

Unless the Twins plan to actually open the free agent purse strings in the next couple of offseasons, giving a free agent a 3-year deal now just isn't much of a risk.

[johnnydakota]

I'm late to this thread, but I have a couple of observations.

 

1. I thought the Twins handled the pitching about right. Before the season I thought they would sign an established guy, trade for a starter, sign a guy coming off of injury, and take a flyer on a fourth guy, while planning on having Diamond and Hendriks ready to start the season along with Gibson, depending on how they would space his innings.

 

I thought they executed parts 2-4 fine. Worley is a fine trade addition, I preferred Baker but can live with Pelfrey, and thought Harden was a fine flyer (and wouldn't be surprised if there is another minor league signing or two). Like everyone I'm not a fan of the Correia signing, but I didn't want the Twins, in their current situation, going more than 2 years or giving up a draft pick. So, in reality the competition was McCarthy, Blanton, Lannan, Myers, and possibly Saunders or Marcum. I say possibly because we still don't know what those contracts will end up being (I have read they are holding out for 3 years, which I absolutely would not do). McCarthy is clearly better, but I'm indifferent about Correia vs. Blanton/Lannan/Myers. So overall, I can live with how it played out based on contracts and availability.

 

2. Twins are not small market, but they are not large market. Realistically they fall into the same category as teams like Atlanta, St. Louis, Seattle and should be judged to that standard. Twins are not going to get the huge TV deal other teams have signed, just don't have the subscriptions to compete.

 

I don't understand the whining about payroll. Ideally, as the Twins are rebuilding and moving towards younger players which will bring down the overall salary. I have already said I wouldn't want them to sign a pitcher for more than two years and it would be counterproductive to sign a position player that would block young player or prospect. There were no impact 3B/SS/2B and it wouldn't make sense to go multiple years for an OF. Who is there to sign? Should they spend money for the sake of spending money?

 

I appreciate the frustration but what was the realistic alternative scenario? The issue right now is not an unwillingness to spend money or an inability to evaluate major league free agents. The problem has been bad trades, drafts that haven't worked out, and young players that never developed. The is minimal young talent on the roster and no core to build around. That has started to be remedied and hopefully they will move towards that during this year on both the major and minor league levels. There is no quick fixes - I think best case scenario is they have progress in the rebuild this year with some young players starting to establish themselves and/or have consolidation years in the minors, 2014 as the transition year where wins start to jump, and start competing in 2015.

 

Marcier Izturis? This years gremlin....

[johnnydakota]

OK I will nitpick more. You still have not addressed what the quote says.

You say " We have information from a variety of league sources that the Twins met with players, but rarely made offers." You have no proof for the statement you make following that. You suppose it to be so, so it must be that way. (Am I learning how to argue like you guys yet? It is what you tell me in rebuttal to anything I say). In stating that the Twinslikely balked at a three year contracts, how long is or was the contract for Mauer, Morneau, Span, Baker, Blackburn, Nishi, Willingham and Doumit's (considering the extension made it a total 3 year contract) In 2008, what did they give Cuddyer? Sounds like a place that gives out contracts longer than 2 years. The nock on Marcum is the reported elbow pain. How much dis the Twins spend on injured pitchers last year? Do you think Pohlad wants to spend more for a pitcher who might have elbow problems with a loss of velocity?

 

They have this site called MLB rumors...several times in the last couple of months different writters have posted just those words .

As for Baker Ryan wanted 1 year plus an option , probally at a team friendly deal , so scott signed with the cubs,

as for Cuddyer last year he offered him a 30% pay cut to return , probally the same for Kubal , declined Nathan , then im guessing tried to low ball him plus an option , much the same as baker . As for Crapps he acepted the 30% pay cut and returned ....

[johnnydakota]

Payroll is gonna be at 80M this year...we'll drop at least another 20M when Morneau and Willingham are gone....and we're not bringing in any high price talent. We could have pre-arbitration eligible or 1st year arbitration players at every starting spot besides Mauer. We're talking Sano, Rosario, Parmelee, Florimon, Hicks, Arcia, maybe Benson. Along with Gibson, May, Meyer, Worley, Diamond.

 

Why would 10M stifle us in 2015?

 

Blackburn and the gremlin ( carroll) as well so thats over 29 million if willingham is traded

[ThePuck]

Blackburn and the gremlin ( carroll) as well so thats over 29 million if willingham is traded

 

Even if Willingham isn't traded, we only have him for two more years. He'll be gone in 2015 anyway

[johnnydakota]

Even if Willingham isn't traded, we only have him for two more years. He'll be gone in 2015 anyway

 

It is indeed a sad future for the twins and fans

[Alex]

I would still rather see Diamond, Worley, Pelfrey, Haren, and yes Correia this season and save $20 - $30 million to over spendnext year on a Top Free Agent Pitcher. (Maybe that allows ownership to go 5 years $100 Million to someone instead of 4 years $80 Million / just an over the top example). Saving money this year allows you to over spend next year and entice FA's to MN!! I would even let Gipson, Henriks, and Mays get some outings throughout the year just for experience. And yes neither of us know whether ownership will over spend next year, but I have to believe that most owners want to win.

 

Final question to this topic - Who was the last TOP FA to sign with Twins? and don't say Willingham? He was a key FA, but a not Top FA.

 

As others mentioned, the Twins don't do this. Last year, their excuse for slashing payroll was that they had a lot of picks in the draft. This year, no such excuse is available. In what could likely be the richest pitching FA market in years past and for years to come.

 

The Twins philosophy was never to spend for top in FA, but that was supposed to change with Target Field. None of us are asking Pujols type contracts and none of us were foolish enough to think Greinke would be on the table. We're talking mid-rotation guys.

 

Seriously, the Twins gave Pavano 3 years for 24.5M THREE years ago. We can't risk 3/30 or heck even 3/45 for likely a better pitcher, especially considering available funds over the next 3 years?

 

People have made mention of Twins payroll space of their own, but few people have reminded the apologists here that they are getting additional tens of millions next year (like every team)

 

So yes, they can afford it. Of course, that's a double edged sword and one the Twins will likely use as an excuse since the price of FA has gone up and probably will next year ("These guys are asking ridiculous amounts!"). Anybody aware of this change should have been able to guess it would affect this year's contracts.

[johnnydakota]

As others mentioned, the Twins don't do this. Last year, their excuse for slashing payroll was that they had a lot of picks in the draft. This year, no such excuse is available. In what could likely be the richest pitching FA market in years past and for years to come.

 

The Twins philosophy was never to spend for top in FA, but that was supposed to change with Target Field. None of us are asking Pujols type contracts and none of us were foolish enough to think Greinke would be on the table. We're talking mid-rotation guys.

 

Seriously, the Twins gave Pavano 3 years for 24.5M THREE years ago. We can't risk 3/30 or heck even 3/45 for likely a better pitcher, especially considering available funds over the next 3 years? People have made mention of Twins payroll space of their own, but few people have reminded the apologists here that they are getting additional tens of millions next year (like every team) So yes, they can afford it. Of course, that's a double edged sword and one the Twins will likely use as an excuse since the price of FA has gone up and probably will next year ("These guys are asking ridiculous amounts!". Anybody aware of this change should have been able to guess it would affect this year's contracts.

 

dont forget the extra tv revenue , carroll and blackburn so we will have eliminated 50 million in salarys in 2 years?while adding to revenue.

nice job .....St Pete will need to hire a couple of extra brinks trucks to haul Pohlads profits

[Alex]

dont forget the extra tv revenue , carroll and blackburn so we will have eliminated 50 million in salarys in 2 years?while adding to revenue.

nice job .....St Pete will need to hire a couple of extra brinks trucks to haul Pohlads profits

 

Yeah, that's what I was referring to with the extra tens of millions that every team will be getting. Those making excuses and worrying about money in the future, don't realize the Twins have it in abundance in future years.

 

Their comments are also very tied to Marcum, but there were a lot more available pitchers the Twins could have gone after. He's all that's left and it's convenient that they have the excuse of his arm (and they're correct it could be a bigger question mark). That's what we're left with, though.

[TheLeviathan]

OK, if you go 3/30 on Marcum and he gets hurt, you don't think $10 mil+ of dead money in '15 could cause a problem?

 

No, it won't. As snepp and Puck already pointed out very nicely. Plus....you said Diamond/Worley/Gibson/Hendricks....sounds like their is still a fifth spot there to me! (Plus, injuries happen and two of those four just recently had significant injuries)

 

There will be a guy or two like him next offseason they can go after if the team is in a better position to contend.

 

The difference is that there will be more buyers and we already have seen how the Twins wilt when the negotiations get tough. Right now they have a chance while other teams have relaxed to swoop in and take a gamble. I never had high hopes for next year either, but Marcum is young enough to be helpful for more than just next year. He, unlike the guys they signed this year, represents more than a stopgap.

[old nurse]

Hey! You get it! I made that argument to show you EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE DOING! And you're criticizing others out of one side of your mouth while you do the same damn thing out of the other side!

 

 

 

.

I have deductive reasoning on my side. There is a set of circumstances and observations that lead to my opinion.

 

Correct on Marcum but there is that thing called Pohlad's money. Considering how Carl Pohlad made his money I do not see how Jim Pohlad would approve it.

[old nurse]

I have reports supporting the beliefs that they either offered crap, or offered nothing at all. Other than your opinion, what do you have to support it? If it's out there I want to see it.

 

I'd love to be able to defend the front office by saying that free agents just hate us and refuse to play in Minnesota, despite TR offering to "make it rain," but the information available right now clearly suggests otherwise.

 

Sources cited like Thyrloss has? People on the far periphery may not know the whole process of what goes on.

In regards to starting pitching free agents. Haren, Jackson, Sanchez, Dempster, McCarthy, Marcum, Blanton and Guthrie are the pitchers available to the Twins who have decent sustained pitching. #3 Starter or better material Pretty darn good pitcher material. 2 or greater WAR. If Ryan contacted the players (agents) and a third said no way, that only leaves a few for you to recruit.

Meyers vs Saunders vs Correia, they all fill a need, but they are not the difference maker. You only have to pick one or two to go after. There is no need to go after 10 of them.

 

I did not include Grienke, Kuroda, or Lohshe as I don't think any of them would sign here to begin with for various reasons and give credit to the FO for knowing that also. Once they did not pick up Baker's option I would have predicted him to be gone.

[lightfoot789]

Besides Greinke - I don't think there was a pitcher on the FA market who was a true difference maker. None with whom I'd bet my home - they would remain effective frontliners. Dempster was so so with Rangers - Sanchez is hot and cold - Marcum is often injured as are so many of the other pitchers on market. That's why I can't see why fans are outraged over a weak FA class that is over priced in any other year. These guys are not much better than what you have coming up in your system. Give them a chance, like the Brewers are doing with their staff. They lost Marcum and Greinke and are replacing them with in house prospects. Thier Fans are excited about the future. The Brewers have always been tight with their money as well, but are able to somehow be in the mix. Twins are about to be the Brewers of the AL very soon. The future looks promising to me, but I feel like I can see behind the trees.

[Bill Rigney]

Brock - yes, it should be an expectation as a fan, but certainly not as a taxpayer. Do you really think TR or the Pohlads look at Target Field and feel a responsibility to sign free agents as a "thank you" to taxpayers? Multi-million dollar businesses don't get that way by being sentimental. We wanted MLB in the Twin Cities, regardless of how competitive the team would be. Had the Twins left town, we would've clamored for the Padres or the Royals or an expansion team to come here, regardless of how good the team was likely to be or how much they would spend on payroll. It's a business that we wanted here. The more they win, the more money they make. They owe us nothing.

[twinsnorth49]

At this stage is the only point in signing Marcum to go from a completely half ass team to a kind of half ass team for this year and possibly next? If signing a decent starter to 3 years is necessary. why bother with this year when they will only have a chance to make any real difference is in he last year of the deal, when the team will only be on the cusp of being competitive anyway.

 

Yes, TR said he was going to sign a significant arm but at this point, why bother, it's not likely to make a damn difference this year.

[twinsnorth49]

the Pohlads run the Twins like any other business - they operate on a yearly basis. Thus, they don't carryover budget room to the next year or the year after.

 

I'm glad someone finally had the sense to point this small detail out. Thank you.

[TheLeviathan]

I have deductive reasoning on my side. There is a set of circumstances and observations that lead to my opinion.

 

No, you have inductive reasoning in yours. Same as everyone else.

[TheLeviathan]

Yes, TR said he was going to sign a significant arm but at this point, why bother, it's not likely to make a damn difference this year.

 

True, and I don't disagree. However, this thread is more about holding Ryan to promises about 2013. Marcum at least possibly could be a nice bridge when 2015 comes. And there is nothing to say, if he does pan out, that you can't extend him. With rotation spots open (i.e.: not blocking anyone significant) the Twins should be gambling with players that could be long-term help. Marcum is young enough to be that and has been very, very good.

 

What he represents for 2013 is a promise kept by Ryan to ticket-holders. But, for those of us that always thought 2015 was a more realistic vision for this team, he also represents a nice piece of the puzzle.

[twinsnorth49]

True, and I don't disagree. However, this thread is more about holding Ryan to promises about 2013. Marcum at least possibly could be a nice bridge when 2015 comes. And there is nothing to say, if he does pan out, that you can't extend him. With rotation spots open (i.e.: not blocking anyone significant) the Twins should be gambling with players that could be long-term help. Marcum is young enough to be that and has been very, very good.

 

What he represents for 2013 is a promise kept by Ryan to ticket-holders. But, for thos e of us that always thought 2015 was a more realistic vision for this team, he also represents a nice piece of the puzzle.

 

Yes, holding TR accountable to his words is fair, I have no problem with that. Sure, extending Marcum is possible but going into 2016 he would be 35, how long would he want? If it's another 3, being that it would likely be his last deal, I'd rather wait to go that route after this year in order to get someone more likely to contribute through the initial contract. If the 2015 team does end up being one moving towards contending in 2017-18 then add a guy like Marcum then as well.

 

My opinion does not account for the likelihood of that happening however.

[Alex]

Besides Greinke - I don't think there was a pitcher on the FA market who was a true difference maker. None with whom I'd bet my home - they would remain effective frontliners. Dempster was so so with Rangers - Sanchez is hot and cold - Marcum is often injured as are so many of the other pitchers on market. That's why I can't see why fans are outraged over a weak FA class that is over priced in any other year. These guys are not much better than what you have coming up in your system. Give them a chance, like the Brewers are doing with their staff. They lost Marcum and Greinke and are replacing them with in house prospects. Thier Fans are excited about the future. The Brewers have always been tight with their money as well, but are able to somehow be in the mix. Twins are about to be the Brewers of the AL very soon. The future looks promising to me, but I feel like I can see behind the trees.

 

if you think this is a weak FA market,especially in terms of the kinds of money the Twins would spend, I don't kno what to tell you. Other people have done a much better job explaining than I have. The Twins GMhandbook lists them all, Bonnes and Gleeman discussed it at length on a podcast using specific comparisons and Gleeman (and probably others) wrote blogs about it. Yes, there was one ace available, but there were a ton of pitchers avaliable that could have fit into a reasonable price range based on the current market and be sustainable frontof the rotation guys.

 

Your concern about question marks on those pitchers is very weak, considering most of the, are proven ML pitchers, of which the ones we're waiting for are not and the others that we've added have the EXACT same issues. Pitchers just aren't durable these days, period.

 

If you think this season players are overpriced, wait until you see what happens when hundreds of millions flood the market next season.

 

As a side not to an older discussion, the Angels explained one reason they wouldn't be interested in Lohse was because they don't think his numbers will hold on a return to the AL.

[TheLeviathan]

If it's another 3, being that it would likely be his last deal, I'd rather wait to go that route after this year in order to get someone more likely to contribute through the initial contract. If the 2015 team does end up being one moving towards contending in 2017-18 then add a guy like Marcum then as well.

 

True, he won't be young at that point. He also represents some nice possibilities for low-risk, high-reward trade value. Again, I think all we're talking about his money that is going to be pocketed. It's frustrating that money we're contributing to the team isn't being put back into it at the rate generally expected.

[lightfoot789]

I was listening to the MLB station in my car and heard the announcers say that Loshe actually had better numbers than Grienke.

I'd rather have him as a short term fix. He's older yes - but for all the saber blog GM's - He is actually a better fix than Marcum.

I'm a new Twins fan - Would he come back and why did we let him go?

BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

868

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

114

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

1.196

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

8.5

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

0.8

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

2.3

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

8.5

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

3.70

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

ZACH GRIENKE

 

BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable]

864

134

1.090

8.2

0.8

1.6

6.1

3.76

[/TABLE]

KYLE LOSHE

[edavis0308]

I was listening to the MLB station in my car and heard the announcers say that Loshe actually had better numbers than Grienke.

I'd rather have him as a short term fix. He's older yes - but for all the saber blog GM's - He is actually a better fix than Marcum.

I'm a new Twins fan - Would he come back and why did we let him go?

BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

868

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

114

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

1.196

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

8.5

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

0.8

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

2.3

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

8.5

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

3.70

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

ZACH GRIENKE

 

BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable]

864

134

1.090

8.2

0.8

1.6

6.1

3.76

[/TABLE]

KYLE LOSHE

 

I'm mobile so its hard to look it up, let alone post, but I suspect you would be better served using a previous three year average.

[lightfoot789]

Great Plan B.

Grienke 2010 / 2011

BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable, width: 0]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

919

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

100

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

1.245

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

9.0

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

0.7

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

2.3

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

7.4

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]

3.29

[/TD]

715

103

1.200

8.4

1.0

2.4

10.5

4.47

[/TABLE]

Loshe 2010 / 2011

BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable, width: 0]

431

59

1.783

12.6

0.9

3.4

5.3

1.54

775

109

1.168

8.5

0.8

2.0

5.3

2.64

[/TABLE]