Article: Under-Delivering

[old nurse]

Justin Upton turns down a trade to the Mariners. The city of Seattle is a great place. The team has been bad for longer than the Twins. Upton has been with Arizona through some very good years and some very bad years. There is no statement as to why he blocked the trade.

[Fanatic Jack]

Nick,

 

Great argument. I spent $3,200 to renew my season tickets based on the fan forum and what was being said by GM Terry Ryan. I always believed he was a straight shooter but was obviously wrong. Twins will probably be worse than last year. Fans were fooled again.

[ThePuck]

Read the post I was responding to. The poster indicated the Pohlads are willing to spend on a winner but it's Ryan's fault for not spending the money, that's just more than a little naive IMO.

 

I think it's a combination. IMO, Ryan is being stubborn. He has an idea how much players are worth and he won't budge. He's under-estimated the market and won't adjust based on principle.

 

Then again, it's reported he hasn't made that many offers at all. Player's aren't gonna sign non-existent offers. :-)

[edavis0308]

Justin Upton turns down a trade to the Mariners. The city of Seattle is a great place. The team has been bad for longer than the Twins. Upton has been with Arizona through some very good years and some very bad years. There is no statement as to why he blocked the trade.

 

It's probably because of that high rate of depression up there.

[Alex]

112 million in 2011 and we all saw how that turned out.

 

I realize this wasn't your central point, but I do think this comment needs to be put in context because I see it's ilk often.

 

In 2011, the Twins top two salaries weren't on the field most of the season and they didn't go out and spend that money (112M) on a decent FA pitcher, either. Span was injured often as well. This means that much of the season, their lineup was manned by minimum wage players. That payroll certainly isn't representative of what the Twins would have actually paid for and wanted to field that season.

 

Then, in 2012 they cut the payroll, and that certainly didn't work out better. You could argue that the opposite is true. With a healthy lineup they weren't able to produce a significant number of wins above the previous year. Sure, Baker was hurt and Pavano declined, but they certainly had room to spend. Instead they went into the season with no depth in their starting pitching and relied on a coin flip. We all know how that turned out.

 

---

 

Discussing this has reminded me of another argument entirely. Remember when there were people saying the Mauer's salary was holding this team back or that the right thing for him to do would be to renegotiate his pay so the Twins could be competitive? I think the last two off-seasons have shown us the ridiculousness of that argument, not to mention next season they'll have a lot more to spend then even this year but again, probably won't. I'm starting to think the right thing for Mauer to do is request a trade.

[Alex]

I think it's a combination. IMO, Ryan is being stubborn. He has an idea how much players are worth and he won't budge. He's under-estimated the market and won't adjust based on principle.

 

Then again, it's reported he hasn't made that many offers at all. Player's aren't gonna sign non-existent offers. :-)

 

I agree. I think that, especially in terms of pitching signings and evaluation of FA, they are well behind the curve on value and the shape of the market.

[Alex]

So your saying they spent to much time teaching the young batters to bunt? but i think your correct in thinking that there is a lack of teaching and developing in the minors, i just think it is not just pitching that is lacking

 

I can give the Twins "some" leeway on this. After all the years of success and picking at the end of the draft, that talent pool was bound to dry up, even if I do think part of it is being behind in terms of talent evaluation. At least, have some promising young hitters in the system now that we can look forward to seeing in a couple of years.

[twinsnorth49]

I think it's a combination. IMO, Ryan is being stubborn. He has an idea how much players are worth and he won't budge. He's under-estimated the market and won't adjust based on principle.

 

Then again, it's reported he hasn't made that many offers at all. Player's aren't gonna sign non-existent offers. :-)

 

So a combination of what? Ryan and the Pohlad's? Or the combination of Ryan being stubborn and underestimating the market? Where are you going with this? All I stated was that I don't think it's entirely Ryan's unwillingness to spend and that the Pohlad's likely are playing a role. If you actually read it, I'm mainly agreeing with you.

 

You've made your case pretty strongly on Ryan, this just seems gratuitous.

[ThePuck]

So a combination of what? Ryan and the Pohlad's? Or the combination of Ryan being stubborn and underestimating the market? Where are you going with this? All I stated was that I don't think it's entirely Ryan's unwillingness to spend and that the Pohlad's likely are playing a role. If you actually read it, I'm mainly agreeing with you.

 

You've made your case pretty strongly on Ryan, this just seems gratuitous.

 

We do agree, all I was saying is I don't think the blame goes to either Pohlad OR Ryan, but both of them. In an interview with Pohlad, it was said that during rebuilding years the percentage of revenue spent on salary goes down. It's policy that's been in place for quite some time. Ryan does the spending, and he's dropped payroll 32M since he's come back as GM. Not sure how much of the drop was due to policy and how much was Ryan not doing what's necessary due to stubbornness

[old nurse]

So a combination of what? Ryan and the Pohlad's? Or the combination of Ryan being stubborn and underestimating the market? Where are you going with this? All I stated was that I don't think it's entirely Ryan's unwillingness to spend and that the Pohlad's likely are playing a role. If you actually read it, I'm mainly agreeing with you.

 

You've made your case pretty strongly on Ryan, this just seems gratuitous.

Considering the signings that were made I would guess that Ryan can commit to a certain dollar amount without Pohlad approval. Above needs the boss's approval. When you listen to the end of the interview referenced in Nick's article, when they asked him about signing free agent his response was "we tried, sometimes you can't give money away". Those that are so disappointed in the outcome of the off season thus far ignore that comment. With the dearth of information about negotiations it means something. He didn't say the free agents wanted too much money. He essentially said they don't want the Twin's money.

 

It could be said that Ryan is frugal with the money and does not want to give out any more than he should. A learned habit from the Metrodome budgets. Most mid market teams are not giving out very many mistake contracts. Meche, Figgins and Wells comes to mind. Correia has to be given a chance to fail here before the negatory people can add him to the list.

[TheLeviathan]

when they asked him about signing free agent his response was "we tried, sometimes you can't give money away". Those that are so disappointed in the outcome of the off season thus far ignore that comment. With the dearth of information about negotiations it means something. He didn't say the free agents wanted too much money. He essentially said they don't want the Twin's money.

 

I love how you nitpick this stuff. Are you being paid by the Twins to troll this crap?

 

We have information from a variety of league sources that the Twins met with players, but rarely made offers. That tells me they heard what was wanted (likely, 3 years or more) and balked on even offering a contract. These guys that spurned us were probably the likes of Blanton, if even that. The point is, you have LESS information to make your assumption than the claims you have been railing against on the board!

 

Here is the far more likely scenario: This team wanted to sign players to deals that were more than 1 year but less than 3, thus hamstringing themselves to a limited number of free agents, thus landing them in the boat that is Kevin Correia. If this wasn't the case - we'd be signing Marcum right now. Shaun Marcum is the massive trump card that debunks every inane post you insist on.

[Top Gun]

According to Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500, the Twins are interested in bringing aboard free agent right-hander Armando Galarraga on a minor league deal.

 

Wolfson says the Twins have reached out to Galarraga and are waiting to hear back. The 30-year-old starter went 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA over five starts for the Astros in 2012, but he could compete for a spot at the back end of the Twins' season-opening rotation if he is signed.

[drjim]

I'm late to this thread, but I have a couple of observations.

 

1. I thought the Twins handled the pitching about right. Before the season I thought they would sign an established guy, trade for a starter, sign a guy coming off of injury, and take a flyer on a fourth guy, while planning on having Diamond and Hendriks ready to start the season along with Gibson, depending on how they would space his innings.

 

I thought they executed parts 2-4 fine. Worley is a fine trade addition, I preferred Baker but can live with Pelfrey, and thought Harden was a fine flyer (and wouldn't be surprised if there is another minor league signing or two). Like everyone I'm not a fan of the Correia signing, but I didn't want the Twins, in their current situation, going more than 2 years or giving up a draft pick. So, in reality the competition was McCarthy, Blanton, Lannan, Myers, and possibly Saunders or Marcum. I say possibly because we still don't know what those contracts will end up being (I have read they are holding out for 3 years, which I absolutely would not do). McCarthy is clearly better, but I'm indifferent about Correia vs. Blanton/Lannan/Myers. So overall, I can live with how it played out based on contracts and availability.

 

2. Twins are not small market, but they are not large market. Realistically they fall into the same category as teams like Atlanta, St. Louis, Seattle and should be judged to that standard. Twins are not going to get the huge TV deal other teams have signed, just don't have the subscriptions to compete.

 

I don't understand the whining about payroll. Ideally, as the Twins are rebuilding and moving towards younger players which will bring down the overall salary. I have already said I wouldn't want them to sign a pitcher for more than two years and it would be counterproductive to sign a position player that would block young player or prospect. There were no impact 3B/SS/2B and it wouldn't make sense to go multiple years for an OF. Who is there to sign? Should they spend money for the sake of spending money?

 

I appreciate the frustration but what was the realistic alternative scenario? The issue right now is not an unwillingness to spend money or an inability to evaluate major league free agents. The problem has been bad trades, drafts that haven't worked out, and young players that never developed. The is minimal young talent on the roster and no core to build around. That has started to be remedied and hopefully they will move towards that during this year on both the major and minor league levels. There is no quick fixes - I think best case scenario is they have progress in the rebuild this year with some young players starting to establish themselves and/or have consolidation years in the minors, 2014 as the transition year where wins start to jump, and start competing in 2015.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't understand the whining about payroll. Ideally, as the Twins are rebuilding and moving towards younger players which will bring down the overall salary. I have already said I wouldn't want them to sign a pitcher for more than two years and it would be counterproductive to sign a position player that would block young player or prospect. There were no impact 3B/SS/2B and it wouldn't make sense to go multiple years for an OF. Who is there to sign? Should they spend money for the sake of spending money?.

 

There is no reason they can't sink some of that excess cost into more riskier investments that might pay off long term. There is no longer the option to spend at will in the international or amatuer ranks, so basically this money is being pocketed. As paying customers - we damn sure can bitch about money being pocketed after some explicit promises about changing the team's outlook.

 

Shaun Marcum at 3 years cripples NOTHING. There is no reason not to do this. There is no backload of AAA pitchers he is getting in the way of. Hell, all he does is guarantee Blackburn doesn't make the rotation our of ST. I fail to see the downside.

[ThePuck]

Again, competing in 2015 with mostly players who are in the minors right now is an unrealistic projection. 2015 is about the time we'll see most of our better prospects finally all up, but that's not going to right away make us competitive. '87 team took 5 years for them to all gel and get rolling to be competitive.

 

People, mostly the defenders, keep saying 2015 as an excuse to not spend. That's not gonna happen.

[ThePuck]

According to Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500, the Twins are interested in bringing aboard free agent right-hander Armando Galarraga on a minor league deal.

 

Wolfson says the Twins have reached out to Galarraga and are waiting to hear back. The 30-year-old starter went 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA over five starts for the Astros in 2012, but he could compete for a spot at the back end of the Twins' season-opening rotation if he is signed.

 

How many guys can we have on the back end of the rotation? Every time we sign someone they say say, not so bad, he's a back end guy. We have nothing but hopeful #3s to go along with 4s and 5s. Be nice if we could get a front end guy

[lightfoot789]

Is it not possible, that Marcum is still a Free Agent for a reason? It is not like the Twins are the only team to not follow your plan. Maybe all 30+ teams see him as a risk and don't want to give him his asking price? Maybe the Twins are extremely wise not to give 3 years to a pitcher who has had serious arm problems for 2 of the last 4 seasons? What do your sources say about Marcum still being available and on the market (no sarcacism)?

[Alex]

Is it not possible, that Marcum is still a Free Agent for a reason? It is not like the Twins are the only team to not follow your plan. Maybe all 30+ teams see him as a risk and don't want to give him his asking price? Maybe the Twins are extremely wise not to give 3 years to a pitcher who has had serious arm problems for 2 of the last 4 seasons? What do your sources say about Marcum still being available and on the market (no sarcacism)?

 

No other team is in need of starting pitching like the Twins. Seriously, none. They were the worst staff in the majors by a long shot. So, no other team has the need nor should have the same plan. And , yet again, in order to refute the idea that the Twins are extremely wise, I give you exhibit A, Kevin Correia.

 

Specifically with Marcum, fine. However it's not like he was/is the only option this offseason, thou he is one of the few left now because the Twins didn't compete with other offers.

[old nurse]

I love how you nitpick this stuff. Are you being paid by the Twins to troll this crap?

 

We have information from a variety of league sources that the Twins met with players, but rarely made offers. That tells me they heard what was wanted (likely, 3 years or more) and balked on even offering a contract. These guys that spurned us were probably the likes of Blanton, if even that. The point is, you have LESS information to make your assumption than the claims you have been railing against on the board!

 

Here is the far more likely scenario: This team wanted to sign players to deals that were more than 1 year but less than 3, thus hamstringing themselves to a limited number of free agents, thus landing them in the boat that is Kevin Correia. If this wasn't the case - we'd be signing Marcum right now. Shaun Marcum is the massive trump card that debunks every inane post you insist on.

OK I will nitpick more. You still have not addressed what the quote says.

You say " We have information from a variety of league sources that the Twins met with players, but rarely made offers." You have no proof for the statement you make following that. You suppose it to be so, so it must be that way. (Am I learning how to argue like you guys yet? It is what you tell me in rebuttal to anything I say). In stating that the Twinslikely balked at a three year contracts, how long is or was the contract for Mauer, Morneau, Span, Baker, Blackburn, Nishi, Willingham and Doumit's (considering the extension made it a total 3 year contract) In 2008, what did they give Cuddyer? Sounds like a place that gives out contracts longer than 2 years. The nock on Marcum is the reported elbow pain. How much dis the Twins spend on injured pitchers last year? Do you think Pohlad wants to spend more for a pitcher who might have elbow problems with a loss of velocity?

[TheLeviathan]

You have no proof for the statement you make following that. You suppose it to be so, so it must be that way.

 

Hey! You get it! I made that argument to show you EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE DOING! And you're criticizing others out of one side of your mouth while you do the same damn thing out of the other side!

 

The nock on Marcum is the reported elbow pain. How much dis the Twins spend on injured pitchers last year?

 

If the Twins were sitting at 95M and signing Marcum would stress their budget, I wouldn't recommend it. But they cut their payroll by 25-30% and are in grave need of arms. I don't care if his arm is half-attached - he's been a worthy #2 pitcher in a rotation at times, definitely a #3 - he's worth the gamble. With this much budget room (and more coming on the near horizon) there is ZERO reason not to gamble. Best case scenario he stays healthy and adds a very good arm to our rotation. Worst case scenario it eats half the money the Pohalds pocket anyway.

[snepp]

I'm still waiting on those reports of the Twins making quality offers to quality free agents, despite all the reports to the contrary.

[TheLeviathan]

Is it not possible, that Marcum is still a Free Agent for a reason? It is not like the Twins are the only team to not follow your plan. Maybe all 30+ teams see him as a risk and don't want to give him his asking price? Maybe the Twins are extremely wise not to give 3 years to a pitcher who has had serious arm problems for 2 of the last 4 seasons? What do your sources say about Marcum still being available and on the market (no sarcacism)?

 

Yes, Marcum comes with serious risks. However - A) He's not blocking any AAA starters. Gibson, Worley, and Hendricks still have a spot. Essentially, he replaces someone we shouldn't give a rip about anyway. He's been a very good starter. C) The payroll is going to continue to drop next year, so it's not stressing our ability to retain or obtain anyone

 

If this team isn't willing to take some risks like this one at a position of desperate need when it has payroll flexibility, that is a very worrisome future trend. And not one that any fan should abide while they pay above average ticket prices.

[snepp]

Worst case scenario it eats half the money the Pohalds pocket anyway.

 

Exactly this.

 

Unless the team's plan moving forward is to permanently lower the payroll to infuriating levels (the bull**** this offseason better be temporary), his signing would in no way impede payroll flexibility.

[old nurse]

I'm still waiting on those reports of the Twins making quality offers to quality free agents, despite all the reports to the contrary.

 

I am waiting for proof that any free agent wanted to listen to the Twins make them an offer.

[lightfoot789]

I would still rather see Diamond, Worley, Pelfrey, Haren, and yes Correia this season and save $20 - $30 million to over spendnext year on a Top Free Agent Pitcher. (Maybe that allows ownership to go 5 years $100 Million to someone instead of 4 years $80 Million / just an over the top example). Saving money this year allows you to over spend next year and entice FA's to MN!! I would even let Gipson, Henriks, and Mays get some outings throughout the year just for experience. And yes neither of us know whether ownership will over spend next year, but I have to believe that most owners want to win.

 

Final question to this topic - Who was the last TOP FA to sign with Twins? and don't say Willingham? He was a key FA, but a not Top FA.

[TheLeviathan]

I would still rather see Diamond, Worley, Pelfrey, Haren, and yes Correia this season and save $20 - $30 million to over spendnext year on a Top Free Agent Pitcher.

 

I'm not sure if snepp ever found the quotes, but the Pohlads run the Twins like any other business - they operate on a yearly basis. Thus, they don't carryover budget room to the next year or the year after. So, again - this is money that WILL be pocketed. Not put towards the team in any meaningful way.

 

Seems to me you have been conditioned to accept such things.

[Top Gun]

Who are the top free agents you want to over spend for next year? You must know, and I sure would like to know. Can you name the top 3 SP for me?

[Kwak]

I would still rather see Diamond, Worley, Pelfrey, Haren, and yes Correia this season and save $20 - $30 million to over spendnext year on a Top Free Agent Pitcher. (Maybe that allows ownership to go 5 years $100 Million to someone instead of 4 years $80 Million / just an over the top example). Saving money this year allows you to over spend next year and entice FA's to MN!! I would even let Gipson, Henriks, and Mays get some outings throughout the year just for experience. And yes neither of us know whether ownership will over spend next year, but I have to believe that most owners want to win.

 

Final question to this topic - Who was the last TOP FA to sign with Twins? and don't say Willingham? He was a key FA, but a not Top FA.

In '91 it was Morris, in '92 a pitcher from Pittsburgh named Smiley (he took Morris's place when Morris jumped to Toronto). After '92 the Twins' record headed South. I am not aware of any others that signed or were even offered a contract to play for the Twins. The philosophy of "lots of arm s" to fix the rotation is diametrically opposed to aquiring one star to accomplish the same goal. It appears that the "quantity" over "quality" preference has been in force for some time.

[snepp]

I never did find the specific articles I was looking concerning the budget, and any google searches that include budget and revenue inevitably lead to a mountain of irrelevant results. These were the same articles that included front office comments about 52% of revenue going to payroll, etc.

[ThePuck]

I never did find the specific articles I was looking concerning the budget, and any google searches that include budget and revenue inevitably lead to a mountain of irrelevant results. These were the same articles that included front office comments about 52% of revenue going to payroll, etc.

 

are you talking about articles like the kind I posted on page two of this thread?