Twins Notebook 9/29: Bring on the Astros

[Andrew Thares]

In just a blink of an eye the 2020 MLB regular season has come and gone, with the Minnesota Twins finishing the season as the American League Central Champions for the second consecutive year. Now, the Twins set their sights on the Houston Astros, who they will face in a three-game Wild Card Series taking place at Target Field.Sunday’s Game Recap

CIN 5, MIN 3: Twins Lose In Extras, Win Division

 

Today

Twins vs. Astros 1:08pm CDT

TV Broadcast: ABC

Betting Lines: MIN -170, HOU +145, O/U: 7.5

 

Twins Starter: Kenta Maeda, RHP 2.70 ERA

 

After acquiring Kenta Maeda in the offseason, the Twins have gotten everything they could have wanted out of him, and then some, during the 2020 season. As a result of his performance, Maeda has earned the number one spot in the Twins Postseason rotation. A big reason for Maeda’s improvement this year has been his success against not only righties (whom he has dominated throughout his career) but also against lefties, holding them to an OPS of .521. Not to be out done, righties had an even lower .484 OPS against Maeda this season. This dominance against right-handed hitters will be crucial in this series against the Astros, as they had 1,059 plate appearances by right-handed hitters this season, which was the fourth most in Major League Baseball.

 

The Astros lineup does not have a lot of experience facing Kenta Maeda, accumulating just 31 career regular season plate appearances for their roster as a whole. Maeda also made four appearances against the Astros in relief during the 2017 World Series, where he famously gave up a game tying home run to Jose Altuve in the epic Game 5. However, outside of that Maeda was excellent against that dominant Astros lineup that is made up of many of those same players today. Across 5 and 2/3 innings pitched, Maeda allowed just the one earned run, and held them to an OPS of .655.

 

Download attachment: 48A939D2-1AC6-4164-A33F-4C17FD70456E.png

 

Astros Starter: Zack Greinke, RHP 4.03 ERA

 

With the loss of Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, the 2020 Astros starting rotation is far less intimidating than the one that made them a matchup nightmare in the past few Postseasons. Now, Zack Greinke has been elevated into the number one role, though he is more than qualified for that spot himself. While the 4.03 ERA would suggest that the nearly 37-year-old Greinke is having a down year, that isn’t exactly the case. Greinke’s FIP of 2.80, which is carried by his career best 7.4/1 K/BB ratio in 12 starts this season. A big reason for Greinke’s slightly inflated ERA is his stranded runner rate of just 68.5%, which is his lowest since his final season in Kansas City, all the way back in 2010.

 

Just as is the case with Astros lineup against Kenta Maeda, the Twins lineup has very little experience against Zack Greinke. In total, this Twins roster has just 65 career plate appearances against Greinke, with most of those coming from Alex Avila and Nelson Cruz. In total, the Twins hitters have combined for a .569 OPS against Greinke throughout their careers.

 

Download attachment: 667CA853-3B5B-4DB6-8853-8B8AA5003C07.png

 

Twins Lineup

 

 

News & Notes

 

- Rocco Baldelli said that Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton had “a relatively good day” on Monday, as they try to recover from injuries that caused them to leave early Friday night’s contest against the Cincinnati Reds.

 

- All eyes will be on the Cleveland Indians versus the New York Yankees Tuesday night, as aces Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole will square off.

 

- At 29-31, the Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers are the first two teams with losing records to make the MLB Postseason, since the 1981 Kansas City Royals did it with a record of 50-53 in the strike-shortened season.

 

See Also

Astros-Twins ALDS Preview: Which Starting Rotation Has the Edge?

Astros-Twins ALDS Preview: Which Lineup Has the Edge?

Astros-Twins ALDS Preview: Which Bullpen Has the Edge?

5 Reasons Why This Twins Team is Different

 

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[TouchEmAllGuy]

Let's snap this playoff drought this afternoon!

[dex8425]

2nd paragraph should be "dominant" instead of dominate. 

[USAFChief]

Buxton and Donaldson had "a relatively good day"?

[Andrew Thares]

 

2nd paragraph should be "dominant" instead of dominate. 

Good catch, thanks.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Buxton and Donaldson had "a relatively good day"?

Could always be worse!

[mike8791]

Echoing the Chief, key to this series is Buxton and Donaldson having relatively good days on the field!  Without them performing near peak abilities, Twins chances look greatly reduced.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Come on guys, time to get over the 0 for 16 hump.

[Joey P]

Lets also root for those Sox to beat the Athletics. I want that matchup at Dodger Stadium. I am thinking that playing there will be nice for Maeda and Hill. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

 

Buxton and Donaldson had "a relatively good day"?

I like to think that means their speed of recovery is relativistic.

 

Look for them to be slightly younger than they would have been if they had recovered at a normal pace.

 

(and just to head off the question, no, it has no observable effects on Buxton's service time)

[sampleSizeOfOne]

And if it hasn't been pointed out yet, Buxton's batting second in today's line up.

 

He must have had a speedier recovery than Donaldson...

 

 

[Squirrel]

Make sure to join us in today’s game thread! When so many venues are closed, we can still enjoy the game together online!

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/42345-astros-vs-twins-game-1-928-1pm-central/