Bowden: Next Top Prospects to Be Traded

[jay]

ESPN's Jim Bowden names some top prospects that could be dealt in the near future to fill holes at the MLB level. He specifically names SPs Danny Hultzen from the Mariners, Julio Teheran from the Braves, Jameson Taillon from the Pirates, and Zach Lee from the Dodgers. About Hultzen, "Hultzen has middle-of-the-rotation stuff with his changeup being his best secondary pitch and his command and control the difference-maker. Hultzen should be enough to garner a 20-home run, 80 RBI-type bat in return."

 

The next top prospects to be traded - The GM's Office by Jim Bowden Blog - ESPN (Insider required)

 

I think we could certainly match up with Mariners and Braves. Would Willingham be enough to get Hultzen or Teheran? Any chance the Twins would trade a third OF this offseason?

[Seth Stohs]

The general comments that we hear are that Willingham would only fetch a middle of the rotation starter, at best. Can't imagine top 20 type prospects would be possible... not that I wouldn't ask!

[gunnarthor]

I've seen a few Atlanta boards where some were willing to get rid of Teheran for Willingham. Although some were strongly against it, too. He must be a polarizing prospect for Atlanta. I've been a big fan of Lee and hoped the Twins could get him last year (it was rumored that the Dodgers were willing to do a Lee for Carlos Lee deal with Houston but Carlos vetoed it). But I'm not sure the Dodgers need anything we have. Pirates might be dumb enough to trade Taillon at the deadline if they think they're close but they'd be better off keeping him and having him #2 to Cole in a few years.

 

I think Ryan would trade Willingham for a front line starter but I don't think the offer will come and I don't think Ryan would trade Willingham for a Hardy like pu-pu platter of low prosects. I think something more interesting might be a prospect swap. Say Arcia for Hultzen. LH power doesn't play well at TF but might be a better fit in (or elsewhere). Prospect for prospect trades don't happen that much but I think it would be pretty fun to see one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As much as I like Willingham, remember he was a free agent last offseason and settled for 3/21 from a last-place ballclub. He's a useful player, and could possibly fetch a useful player in return, but he's not THAT valuable on the market. He's not going to fetch a top starter or top prospect of any kind.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And whenever I hear "prospect for prospect swap" I think back to the Young-Garza deal (although technically they all at least some MLB experience under their belts in that deal).

 

So suffice to say, I am terrified of prospect for prospect swaps. (I think TR would do it a lot better than Bill Smith, of course. But I don't expect one anytime soon.)

[gunnarthor]

And whenever I hear "prospect for prospect swap" I think back to the Young-Garza deal (although technically they all at least some MLB experience under their belts in that deal).

 

So suffice to say, I am terrified of prospect for prospect swaps. (I think TR would do it a lot better than Bill Smith, of course. But I don't expect one anytime soon.)

 

That's why I love them. Bullock for Diamond. At the time, Twins fans were all "ARRGH" and Atlanta fans were all "Woo-hoo!"

 

And I think a guy like Arcia might be near his peak value now.

[ThePuck]

I hope they keep Arcia...of all the prospects close to hitting the Bigs, I'm most excited to see him with the big club

[Kwak]

That's why I love them. Bullock for Diamond. At the time, Twins fans were all "ARRGH" and Atlanta fans were all "Woo-hoo!"

 

And I think a guy like Arcia might be near his peak value now.

Then you will love trading Diamond, wouldn't he be at his 'peak" value? My XXX, why do people think the Twins should trade a guy because "he's at peak value"? In order to build a quality team, the quality players must be retained. It's the lesser players who should be traded--the fool's gold.

[notoriousgod71]

Then you will love trading Diamond, wouldn't he be at his 'peak" value? My XXX, why do people think the Twins should trade a guy because "he's at peak value"? In order to build a quality team, the quality players must be retained. It's the lesser players who should be traded--the fool's gold.

 

Diamond likely is fool's gold.

[gunnarthor]

Then you will love trading Diamond, wouldn't he be at his 'peak" value? My XXX, why do people think the Twins should trade a guy because "he's at peak value"? In order to build a quality team, the quality players must be retained. It's the lesser players who should be traded--the fool's gold.

 

Not sure the hostility is deserved there. You'd trade a guy b/c you think you'd get something better back for your team. I don't think Arcia's bat will play well in TF so I'd be happy to trade him for something else we need - such as a pitcher.

 

It's not often you get to trade fool's gold for a good piece. Bullock/Diamond was a nice example, I suppose.

[Big City]

I hope they keep Arcia...of all the prospects close to hitting the Bigs, I'm most excited to see him with the big club

 

 

Agreed. I watched some Arcia AB's on youtube and he's fun to watch at the dish. He reminds me a little bit of Morneau in that he's aggressive but has a good eye (excluding 2012) and he crushes every pitch. Arcia's definitely on the fast track and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's our 2014 starting RF.

[righty8383]

In terms of value, Willinham wouldn't seem to be enough to get a prospect like Teheran. But we have seen that if team is desperate enough (Philies, Blue Jays, Royals), they are willing to trade top prospects for big league help. If a team is willing to overpay for Willingham, get it done.

[Big City]

I think Ryan would trade Willingham for a front line starter but I don't think the offer will come and I don't think Ryan would trade Willingham for a Hardy like pu-pu platter of low prosects. I think something more interesting might be a prospect swap. Say Arcia for Hultzen. LH power doesn't play well at TF but might be a better fit in (or elsewhere). Prospect for prospect trades don't happen that much but I think it would be pretty fun to see one.

 

I like the idea but prefer more of a hybrid. What if we traded Willingham and Benson for Hultzen and a throw-in or two?

[Big City]

In terms of value, Willinham wouldn't seem to be enough to get a prospect like Teheran. But we have seen that if team is desperate enough (Philies, Blue Jays, Royals), they are willing to trade top prospects for big league help. If a team is willing to overpay for Willingham, get it done.

 

You may be right, the Phillies are still in search of a right-handed hitting, middle-of-the-order, LF with about $7-$8 million left to spend. They've been rumored to be in on Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells, and Cody Ross but Willingham's contract and performance should trump those 3. Biddle and Ruf would be 2 super-intriguing guys to add to our organization and align perfectly with our 2014-2015 prospects.

[gunnarthor]

I like the idea but prefer more of a hybrid. What if we traded Willingham and Benson for Hultzen and a throw-in or two?

 

I don't know enough about Hultzen but the theory is fine. My guess is that Benson has very little trade value now so it'd have to be someone else. I think any of Hicks, Arcia, Kepler would draw legitimate interest from other teams (and that the Twins might be willing to move). Whether Willingham and Arcia (for example) is too much or too little for Hultzen, I'm not sure.

 

I think Righty has the right idea - let someone get desperate and overpay. Your suggestion that to target a guy like Biddle is a good one.

[Mike Sixel]

If Willingham could net Hultzen, you would do that instantly.

[jay]

The general comments that we hear are that Willingham would only fetch a middle of the rotation starter, at best. Can't imagine top 20 type prospects would be possible... not that I wouldn't ask!

 

I thought those comments were related to getting back a current MLB middle of the rotation pitcher as opposed to a prospect (who obviously isn't a proven commodity).

 

If Nick Swisher gets > 4/50 as rumored, I would tend to think Hultzen is pretty reasonable to ask for when you look at Hammer's remaining 2/14.

[Rosterman]

Right now, today, Willingham is at least as valuable as he will ever be. Will he be equally productive in 2013...where the Twins will be scrambling for a 1-2 hitter, Mauer won't be seeing any good pitches, and Willingham will have to at 4th to see a runner on base or probably lead off if he bats 5th or 6th consistently? Like Delmon Young, the Twins do need to consider offers when a guy is hotter than just hot, and not wait for them to be luke warm. Then you get the more distant prospect. Same with Morneau.

[jay]

Right now, today, Willingham is at least as valuable as he will ever be.

 

Which is exactly why the Twins should still consider moving him this offseason, as hard as it might be to justify trading away a third starting OF.

[ashbury]

If Willingham could net Hultzen, you would do that instantly.

 

Right. It may not be that exactly the same voices saying "Ryan should wait for some team to overpay" are also saying "why isn't Ryan doing more?". But the overall din sounds like that. Highly favorable deals do not pop up every day, and for now Willingham's contract would be hard to replace with another stopgap OF solution that gets us to 2015, so why move him just for the sake of motion if the prospects in return aren't likely to contribute strongly to the next contending squad?

[Guest USAFChief]

 

LH power doesn't play well at TF

 

Tell that to Jim Thome.

 

Coming to these kinds of conclusions about Target Field after 3 years of play is...premature. Dangerous, even.

 

People were convinced TF was death to RH hitters, too. Then the Twins put Willingham in the lineup, and now you have people convinced it's a haven for RH power.

 

There is nothing about TF that should make it exceptionally difficult to hit for power. From either side of the plate. If you want to trade Arcia for pitching, fine, but TF should have no part in the analysis. None.

[Riverbrian]

Which is exactly why the Twins should still consider moving him this offseason, as hard as it might be to justify trading away a third starting OF.

 

There is a difference between considering and getting an offer that makes sense. If Hultzen or Walker is offered by Seattle for Willingham. It's possible that TR is listening.

 

If the offer is Blake Beaven... TR just might hang on to Willingham and let the Twins Dialy folks rake him over the coals for not considering a trade for Hultzen.

 

Trades require two GMs to agree. I don't believe TR was planning on trading Revere... The Phillies came along and said Worley and Mays and Terry said OK... If the Mariners come along and say Walker for Willingham. Terry Ryan just might say OK. I just doubt that offer is on the table.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Tell that to Jim Thome.

 

Coming to these kinds of conclusions about Target Field after 3 years of play is...premature. Dangerous, even.

 

People were convinced TF was death to RH hitters, too. Then the Twins put Willingham in the lineup, and now you have people convinced it's a haven for RH power.

 

There is nothing about TF that should make it exceptionally difficult to hit for power. From either side of the plate. If you want to trade Arcia for pitching, fine, but TF should have no part in the analysis. None.

 

It seems to me that pull hitters do well (Thome, Willingham, Plouffe). Oppo-field hitters, not so much. Like PetCo, I think the gaps of Target Field are death valley and the lines down the pole are just big enough where it's hard to hit one out to opposite field (see Mauer, Joe).

[jay]

There is a difference between considering and getting an offer that makes sense. If Hultzen or Walker is offered by Seattle for Willingham. It's possible that TR is listening.

 

If the offer is Blake Beaven... TR just might hang on to Willingham and let the Twins Dialy folks rake him over the coals for not considering a trade for Hultzen.

 

Trades require two GMs to agree. I don't believe TR was planning on trading Revere... The Phillies came along and said Worley and Mays and Terry said OK... If the Mariners come along and say Walker for Willingham. Terry Ryan just might say OK. I just doubt that offer is on the table.

 

I think that's a pretty fair way to look at it. I think the TD folks would be hoping (with no way to ever verify) that TR has at least floated the idea out there instead of sitting back and waiting for a team like the Mariners to put something on the table. The unknown amount of communication that actually takes place is what I think leaves folks frustrated.

[old nurse]

There is a difference between considering and getting an offer that makes sense. If Hultzen or Walker is offered by Seattle for Willingham. It's possible that TR is listening.

 

If the offer is Blake Beaven... TR just might hang on to Willingham and let the Twins Dialy folks rake him over the coals for not considering a trade for Hultzen.

 

 

Trades require two GMs to agree. I don't believe TR was planning on trading Revere... The Phillies came along and said Worley and Mays and Terry said OK... If the Mariners come along and say Walker for Willingham. Terry Ryan just might say OK. I just doubt that offer is on the table.

 

Rather than respond to all of your posts today, let me just give one blanket comment on all off them here. Spot on bright on a cold dark winter day.

[Riverbrian]

Rather than respond to all of your posts today, let me just give one blanket comment on all off them here. Spot on bright on a cold dark winter day.

 

Ahh Thanks!!! You Charger and I are needed for balance.

[Kwak]

It seems to me that pull hitters do well (Thome, Willingham, Plouffe). Oppo-field hitters, not so much. Like PetCo, I think the gaps of Target Field are death valley and the lines down the pole are just big enough where it's hard to hit one out to opposite field (see Mauer, Joe).

HR hitters are typically pull hitters. But Thome did hit more than his fair share of power hits to LF and CF.

[DaveW]

Hultzen will not be traded for anything less then a really good young player with a lot of team control. It would cost much more then Willingham or Arcia.

 

Though he doesn't have the extreme ace type upside, Hultzen if he doesn't progress any more is basically a solid #2/#3 on a team, and if he continues to develop could be even more special.

[Riverbrian]

The Mariners would be idiots to give up any of the young Pitching they have at this point.

 

It's the only way they can compete in the AL West eventually. They have stated over and over again that they are not moving King Felix... In a year or two. Walker, Hultzen and Paxton will be in Seattle to join him. I also like this Iwakuma Guy. Seattle could be a tough team... Giants Like in the very near future is everything pans out.

 

All they have to do is protect that core and start adding in the offensive pieces. Zunino will come up to catch... Montero can also catch and DH. Morales at 1B. Ackley if he devolops at 2B. Who knows on Seager at 3B... maybe... Franklin could be a SS when the pitching core is in the Show... That leaves the OF... and Seattle has never really been afraid to spend some dollars on players. There will be another Hamilton type available next year.

 

I would protect that young core in Seattle. Trading any of those young players would set the franchise back in my opinion.

[ThePuck]

HR hitters are typically pull hitters. But Thome did hit more than his fair share of power hits to LF and CF.

 

Only 7 of his 25 HR in 2010 were to RF and only 3 were to RF in 2011. Even though those are season stats, not TF specific, they would seem to support your theory.