Kevin Correia?

[kab21]

http://twinsdaily.com/twins-talk/3735-twins-will-seek-affordable-pitchers.html

Just saying I predicted this signin on Oct 14th......not that I have any info but I know how cheap Terry Ryan is

Very disappointing.......if Gardy is fired this season for another 95 loss season, TR should be right behind

 

It's 12/11 and you've declared the offseason over? Keep up the negativity.

[PseudoSABR]

I'm still not sure how much good that Baker deal does the Twins though, because I think he might take a minute to get back to productivity.

 

This context shows what? You gave just as much billing to plugging that Baker was payed "excessively" (is this somehow different than overpaying?) as you did the option year. How that paragraph proves you didn't argue Baker was overpaid is baffling.

 

I'll repeat it: The Twins just guaranteed Kevin Correia as much money as the Cubs did for Feldman and Baker combined. After much laughing at the Cubs early on. I know who should be laughing now.

Baker is coming off injury, and part of the incentive of signing him was that he would regain more value in future years. Five and half million is fine if there's some incentive to paying him that much; I thought it was excessive, given his injury and no option year (that's not crazy, even if you think otherwise). Feldman is a swing man with a worse track record than Correia. Again, the only silver lining is if Correia pitches himself into tradeability.

 

Both deals are bucket loads of Meh, and trying characterize my opinion otherwise misrepresents it. You're trying to drive a wedge when our opinions probably aren't very far apart.

 

That said, I'd rather pay that 5.5 million more over two years to McCarthy, though there might be legitimate health concerns.

[johnnydakota]

2 years 10 million. He is Nick Blackburn. I had the guy on my fantasy team the year he had a sub 4 era in San Diego. He was a pitcher built for San Diego where the ball doesn't fly. I'm not a big fan of this move either

With the heat down in San Diego, the ball travels better than it does back here. Not a great move by the Twins, but one they clearly needed to make.

 

uhhmmm why? dont we already pay a waste of a pitcher 5 million named blackburn?

if we are building for the future, why sign a never was,a dinasour with no trade value?

wouldnt we be farther ahead to see if devries,deuno,walters vasquez hernandez hermsen have any future or value?

[PseudoSABR]

http://twinsdaily.com/twins-talk/3735-twins-will-seek-affordable-pitchers.html

Just saying I predicted this signin on Oct 14th......not that I have any info but I know how cheap Terry Ryan is

Very disappointing.......if Gardy is fired this season for another 95 loss season, TR should be right behind

 

It's 12/11 and you've declared the offseason over? Keep up the negativity.

Right. Signing Corriea makes little different in terms of future competitiveness or our actually capacity to sign star pitching.

[johnnydakota]

 

Why not just save the money or sign a different crappy pitcher to a 1 year deal so atleast its a 1 year deal.

 

Poll would you rather have DeVries or Correia in the rotation?

 

i would rather have butera...ok really deuno,devries,walters hermsen,vasquez,hernandez...at least find out if these guys are prospects or suspects, but correia has no value, a career 4.5 era add in the n.l-a.l conversion and your looking at an era between 4.75-5-00

[johnnydakota]

I don't love the signing, but I don't hate it either. Low risk, low reward. With Diamond and Correia in the rotation our infield defense better be sharp.

 

Hopefully this means TR is loading up $12-15 million per for a Sanchez, Marcum or Jackson. I'm not holding my breath though.

 

Time for a cleansing breath.

 

A few of the Twins apologists are all pink and puffy-cheeked and are undoubtedly still holding out their predictably unnatural hope, but I think Worley and Correia are it. Maybe there's a Joel Zumaya clone available?

 

On the bright side, both will be good candidates for eminent flippability back to the NL come July, so that Hermsen, Wimmers and the 2012 Cast from the "Fame" remake can close out the season in the starting rotation with Diamond (Gibson will likely be shut down or severely limited by the end of August).

kasmir

[johnnydakota]

This should be every bit as successful as last winter's pitching additions. Nicely done TR. Now let's strike while the iron is hot and get Livan signed before the other GMs find out he's still available!

 

or offer capps another pay cut and see if he returns?

[DaveW]

God damnit I miss BYTO!!!!

 

Basically I agree with 110% of what Kab has said in this thread, the fake outrage is hilarious though, keep it up.

[DaveW]

Also:

 

Correia 2/10 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Dempters 3/40

[Shane Wahl]

Also:

 

Correia 2/10 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Dempters 3/40

 

I disagree, but that is fine. Correia isn't even going to be in the rotation in 2014. If he is, the Twins have much larger problems with Gibson, Meyer, May, and Hendriks. Dempster is at least a capable 2-3 and not a 5-6.

[Nick Nelson]

Whatever budget Terry Ryan is working with, he just committed $5 million of it toward a bad player for the next two years. I don't see any positive way to frame this.

[FrodaddyG]

I really need to sink my money into a turd polish manufacturer before JR makes any more signings.

[iastfan112]

Whatever budget Terry Ryan is working with, he just committed $5 million of it toward a bad player for the next two years. I don't see any positive way to frame this.

 

Yep, which is why I'd have rather overpaid for Dempster, Haren, Blanton, ect. You would think that after last years Marquis disaster they'd have shyed away from low K, pitch to contact guys with modest success in the NL. I find it hard to imagine there were other teams beating down Correia's door with a 2 year contract at this point.

[Top Gun]

We can always sell him to Japan!

[Top Gun]

It serves Pohlad right, who would want to come here and play for that cheap bastard. The players and agents know!

[mattsaari]

Watching fans rend their garments and tear at their hair over a free agent signing it's easy to remember that this is a children's game. What else could possibly turn a bunch of adults into tantrum throwers? I get it, baseball makes people impassioned. It also makes people act rash.

 

Kevin Correia has not been a great pitcher, nobody will argue that. On the other hand, he has not since 2004 had RAR numbers comparable to what Blackburn, Dedudo, Walters and Marquis gave us last year. In fact, the numbers that got him tossed out of the Pirates rotation would have slotted him as the Twins #2. I know this is no ringing endorsement. It's not meant to be. It's simply the reality that our Twins are facing right now. They needed 3 whole big league pitchers to fill out the rotation for 2013, just to hope to compete. If Correia's acquisition does nothing more than prevent the continued misuse of Brian Duensing as a starter, it's a win. I'm not crackin' on Duens. He's one of my favorite players. Just that he's a below average starter, but a really good reliever.

 

Heck, If we got an entire pitching staff staff of Corrieas career average (as a starter) production, the team would allow 745 earned runs. Not sexy, but 17 runs better than last year. Somewhere between 1 and 2 wins. Let's say we can expect the bully to produce the same rate as last year (3.77 ERA, .42 r/i).

 

We slot in a whole staff of Correia career average (starts) pitchers. That gives them an avg start of 5 2/3 vs 5 1/3. 53 1/3 fewer innings to the bully first of all. That's a whole reliever worth of appearances (which would theoretically leave the pen more effective -- but we're not going to deal in that intangible right now). It reduces the team ERA to 4.29. Extrapolate that to the 1438.2 IP for 2k11 and the team surrenders 691 earned runs. That's still 100 behind Detroit, sure. But it's 71 better than last year. That's 7 Wins better, more or less. It's late and I can't sleep, so might be I've totally borked the math. I hope not, since that'd be too bad.

 

Let's just slot 2k12 Correia into an avg non-Diamond 2k12 starter (5.86 ERA! More than a run every other inning!) from last year, and give him his 160.67 innings. That reduces the team's starting pitching run allowance from 528 earned runs to 498. That's 30 runs. 3 'wins'. That places Correia's value to the 2k12 Twins at $15 Mil. They're paying him a third of that per season. Regression risk is built in to the contract.

 

While he's not the most exciting player on the block, he is a valuable pick up to the Twins. Considering they've also replaced another 5.86 ERA (The aggregate non-Diamond) starter with Worley (who produced at roughly the same rate last year, with injury) at the minimum, they've greatly improved the rotation. If we slap Worley's injured season into the matrix, we get at total of 474 starter runs. Meaning injured Worley is worth 2.4 'wins' to the 2k12 Twins as well. Obviously this only gets the team to 73 wins, but it's only cost 10.8 Mil of payroll over the next two seasons, with regression protection built in.

 

If we want to protect against the whole AL/NL thing, we add 23 Runs to that, negating the gain of Injured Worley. This doesn't include the likelihood that Healthy Worley will out produce Injured Worley.

 

Blah blah. Just adding the exact production that Correia gave the Pirates last year and even accounting for the AL/NL conversion: he would have been worth 17 Runs at a minimum to the Twins last year. Meaning his 5 Mil is actually less than his value would have been.

[old nurse]

http://twinsdaily.com/twins-talk/3735-twins-will-seek-affordable-pitchers.html

Just saying I predicted this signin on Oct 14th......not that I have any info but I know how cheap Terry Ryan is

Very disappointing.......if Gardy is fired this season for another 95 loss season, TR should be right behind

 

I remember. I know you and I were prime targets for the slings and arrows from the apologists.

 

It looks like my prediction of $85M might have been a bit of an overshoot. One could say that one apparent intent from these maneuvers at payroll paring is that TR is setting Gardy up for his early dismissal papers.

 

Between the two of you can you ever remember a major free agent ever signing with a 180 loss team in a mid to small market? It isn't always about money. Name call those that think differently than you do to try to diminish a point of view but no major free aeant is going to a losing team at anything other than a totally outrageous contract. 6/90 for Sanchez is what the agent wanted. Even if the Twins offered, he wouldn't take it.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Whatever budget Terry Ryan is working with, he just committed $5 million of it toward a bad player for the next two years. I don't see any positive way to frame this.

 

Aren't you the same guy who thought the Twins could get James Shields for Dernard Span and BJ Hermsen?

[TheLeviathan]

I thought it was excessive, given his injury and no option year

 

You can keep twisting your own words around to make it sound better, but you called 5.5M excessive. You then came on this thread and said 2 years and 10M (guaranteed, not an option year! Which HURTS trade value, not helps it!) is "not that bad". Those opinions together are stupid. There is no twisting this into "not that bad" in any world, but certainly not when you called a 1 year 5.5M deal "excessive". All the hand wringing and laughing about that looks mighty stupid now.

 

Just to recap a third time for you, they just paid a player who is bad at baseball as much money as the Cubs did for one meh guy and one guy who, if healthy, is pretty darn good. If you asked anyone before the offseason which of those two scenarios you would rather be in (bad player vs. two players) they'd have said the two players with meh ability and upside/health concerns 100 out of 100 times. It's a no brainer.

 

You, Nick, and many others shouted across this forum what silly moves those were by the Cubs. They look pretty damn sharp to me as we sit and look at a 10M dollar turd today.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Whatever budget Terry Ryan is working with, he just committed $5 million of it toward a bad player for the next two years. I don't see any positive way to frame this.

 

Aren't you the same guy who thought the Twins could get James Shields for Dernard Span and BJ Hermsen?

 

That should have been the going rate. One can't predict that another team will step in make a really stupid offer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Whatever budget Terry Ryan is working with, he just committed $5 million of it toward a bad player for the next two years. I don't see any positive way to frame this.

 

I... I... Just... COME ON, JR. This is awful. You have $25m to spend and you dump $5m into Kevin ****ing Correa?

 

COME ON.

[jcphitman]

I honestly think the Twins are done after this signing with their rotation. I don't like the signing, but why waste time complaining? What's done is done and nobody here has the power to change anything.

 

We're looking at next season with:

Diamond

Worley

Correia

Hendricks

Gibson/Blackburn/Deduno/DeVries/Etc

 

Think about it ... Diamond and Worley are locks. Bringing Corriea in will lock him up to a spot. Hendricks is cheap and the Twins still think he has some upside. They are going to force Blackburn into the rotation and either send him to the pen or AAA once Gibson is ready to get some starts in. If Gibson gets hurt or isn't ready, Deduno is back or one of the other AAA pitchers.

 

We already have our lefthander in Diamond.

 

This is it. We already have a full pen. Our last move will be a trade with St. Louis for Schumacker (sp) or another cheap MI option.

[snepp]

With the heat down in San Diego, the ball travels better than it does back here.

 

No, it doesn't.

[Guest USAFChief]

With the heat down in San Diego, the ball travels better than it does back here.

 

No, it doesn't.

 

you and your math, and science! Enough already!

[mikeee]

The could have used this money to lower beer prices at the stadium. That would probably get more fans in the park than this pitcher.

[kab21]

With the heat down in San Diego, the ball travels better than it does back here.

 

No, it doesn't.

 

Why is San Diego important anyway? he's been in Pitt for 2 years.

 

I'm mostly indifferent to this signing. JR always signs a few washed up vets and there's a chance he might not be horrible. I can forgive him as long as he has another good move or two left this offseason. I'm concerned that he might be hinting that he won't be able to sign a better starter but he did say that he planned on bringing in 3 starters this season. The offseason isn't over yet.

[PseudoSABR]

I thought it was excessive, given his injury and no option year

 

You can keep twisting your own words around to make it sound better, but you called 5.5M excessive. You then came on this thread and said 2 years and 10M (guaranteed, not an option year! Which HURTS trade value, not helps it!) is "not that bad". Those opinions together are stupid. There is no twisting this into "not that bad" in any world, but certainly not when you called a 1 year 5.5M deal "excessive". All the hand wringing and laughing about that looks mighty stupid now.

 

Just to recap a third time for you, they just paid a player who is bad at baseball as much money as the Cubs did for one meh guy and one guy who, if healthy, is pretty darn good. If you asked anyone before the offseason which of those two scenarios you would rather be in (bad player vs. two players) they'd have said the two players with meh ability and upside/health concerns 100 out of 100 times. It's a no brainer.

 

You, Nick, and many others shouted across this forum what silly moves those were by the Cubs. They look pretty damn sharp to me as we sit and look at a 10M dollar turd today.

Look, you're strawmanning. How many times do I have to say I don't like the deal. I'm holding out hope he can establish some trade value. That you want to have the Baker argument again strikes me as petty.

[TheLeviathan]

Look, you're strawmanning. How many times do I have to say I don't like the deal. I'm holding out hope he can establish some trade value. That you want to have the Baker argument again strikes me as petty.

 

Petty sounds funny considering how aggressively you wanted to shame my take on things before. I made three simple points:

 

1) Baker at 5.5M was not an overpayment.

2) The Cubs were not wildly overspending

3) The Twins were not going to fix the 2013 rotation in one offseason

 

All three of those things were 100% correct. You, and others, decided to call Baker's contract "Excessive" and a variety of other adjectives to justify the Twins not matching. You called out the Cubs for signing meh talents for more money than you thought they deserved. And you kept saying..."wait and see" about the offseason.

 

Well, now we've waited and now we see. Baker looks like a god damn bargain at 5.5 million even if his arm was half attached compared to Kevin "I'm pitch to contact personified, barely a 4th starter in the NL, and making TRIPLE what Marquis was paid last year for basically being his clone" Correia. The same guy you posted was signed to a deal that was "not that bad". This after arguing Baker was overpaid. How anyone can feel that 5.5M for Baker is excessive overpayment and 2 years 10M for Correia is "not that bad" is insane. Those positions cannot be rectified sanely.

 

Second, this offseason we have made two very nice deals that have restocked our 2015 rotation well and added one nice arm for 2013. We're out of trade chips unless we want to completely destroy the offense in the process. We now have roughly 20-25M to spend in FA and promptly kicked 20-25% of it on a horsecrap pitcher who should make us recall the days of Blackburn not Santana. Exactly what you and others complained the fatal problem with signing Baker was for 5.5. Now we not only anchored 5M to this year's budget, but next years as well for a key that, at best, provides more veteran presence then the guys we already had. Leaving us with exactly one choice: Spending the rest of the budget on one arm. Which, I don't know about you, but my confidence is pretty shaken on that happening considering this contract.

 

And third, in the context of free agency, what the Cubs did was read the market early and sign players to deals better than they would have likely got a month later. FA contracts are always higher than we like to stomach, but if you get in exceptionally early and exceptionally late with the right factors, you can sometimes dodge the ugliest bullets. Last night we took one ugly friggin bullet. No matter how much you want to paint it as "not that bad" It's ugly. Baker for less total dollars with much more upside is a no-brainer. Your aggressive approach to shaming me for that position earlier gives me every right to remind you of what it looks like now.

[LoganJones]

The reason Baker at 5.5 guaranteed is an Overpay has nothing to do with his talent and everything to do with the likelihood that he won't pitch 15 games for the Cubs. It's not a 'bad contract', though. It only becomes a bad contract if he can't pitch any games. Or if you pay him 5.5 mil to rehab, look good in late season work and then sign with the Cards or Brewers and beat the Cubbies for years after.

[PseudoSABR]

Look, you're strawmanning. How many times do I have to say I don't like the deal. I'm holding out hope he can establish some trade value. That you want to have the Baker argument again strikes me as petty.

 

Petty sounds funny considering how aggressively you wanted to shame my take on things before. I made three simple points:

 

1) Baker at 5.5M was not an overpayment.

2) The Cubs were not wildly overspending

3) The Twins were not going to fix the 2013 rotation in one offseason

 

All three of those things were 100% correct. You, and others, decided to call Baker's contract "Excessive" and a variety of other adjectives to justify the Twins not matching. You called out the Cubs for signing meh talents for more money than you thought they deserved. And you kept saying..."wait and see" about the offseason.

 

Well, now we've waited and now we see. Baker looks like a god damn bargain at 5.5 million even if his arm was half attached compared to Kevin "I'm pitch to contact personified, barely a 4th starter in the NL, and making TRIPLE what Marquis was paid last year for basically being his clone" Correia. The same guy you posted was signed to a deal that was "not that bad". This after arguing Baker was overpaid. How anyone can feel that 5.5M for Baker is excessive overpayment and 2 years 10M for Correia is "not that bad" is insane. Those positions cannot be rectified sanely.

 

Second, this offseason we have made two very nice deals that have restocked our 2015 rotation well and added one nice arm for 2013. We're out of trade chips unless we want to completely destroy the offense in the process. We now have roughly 20-25M to spend in FA and promptly kicked 20-25% of it on a horsecrap pitcher who should make us recall the days of Blackburn not Santana. Exactly what you and others complained the fatal problem with signing Baker was for 5.5. Now we not only anchored 5M to this year's budget, but next years as well for a key that, at best, provides more veteran presence then the guys we already had. Leaving us with exactly one choice: Spending the rest of the budget on one arm. Which, I don't know about you, but my confidence is pretty shaken on that happening considering this contract.

 

And third, in the context of free agency, what the Cubs did was read the market early and sign players to deals better than they would have likely got a month later. FA contracts are always higher than we like to stomach, but if you get in exceptionally early and exceptionally late with the right factors, you can sometimes dodge the ugliest bullets. Last night we took one ugly friggin bullet. No matter how much you want to paint it as "not that bad" It's ugly. Baker for less total dollars with much more upside is a no-brainer. Your aggressive approach to shaming me for that position earlier gives me every right to remind you of what it looks like now.

Feel better?