How Well Does Minnesota’s Rotation Stack Up Against Cleveland and Chicago’s?

[Patrick Wozniak]

There’s just something about rankings that makes them so enticing. Whether it be prospect rankings, power rankings, or all-time greats, I always find myself enthralled. Today we’ll use individual starting pitching rankings to see how the Minnesota Twins stack up against their biggest division foes – Cleveland and Chicago.Over at the Athletic, Eno Sarris recently released 2020 starting pitching rankings, mainly for fantasy purposes. But the nice thing about his rankings is that he used a nice mix of criteria. He combined stuff ratings from Driveline Baseball, command numbers from STATS Perform, and projections from ATC, which is basically a composite of the best projection systems. We’ll use these rankings to break down the rotations, starting from the “aces” and working our way down to the #5’s.

 

The Aces

 

8) Shane Beiber – CLE – 214.1 IP, 3.28 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 25.5% K-BB%, 5.6 fWAR

 

23) Jose Berrios – MN – 200.1 IP, 3.68 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 17.1% K-BB%, 4.4 fWAR

 

29) Lucas Giolito – CWS – 176.2 IP, 3.41 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 24.2% K-BB%, 5.1 fWAR

 

The only question here was whether Shane Beiber or teammate Mike Clevinger would come first. Giolito’s 2019 numbers were better than Berrios’s across the board, but it was a breakout year and Berrios possesses the stronger track record. Berrios is sandwiched by Zack Greinke and Zach Wheeler in the rankings.

 

The Second Fiddles

 

9) Mike Clevinger – CLE – 126.0 IP, 2.71 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 26.5% K-BB%, 4.5 fWAR

 

47) Jake Odorizzi – MN – 159.0 IP, 3.51 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 19.0% K-BB%, 4.3 fWAR

 

61) Dallas Keuchel – CWS – 112.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 10.7% K-BB%, 0.8 fWAR

 

First off, Clevinger clearly belongs in the “aces” group and is arguably the division’s best starter. Odorizzi lacks the innings of Berrios, but otherwise his 2019 numbers actually beat his rotation mate’s. His 47th overall ranking put him in steady #2 territory. Keuchel has name recognition, but the 32-year-old’s 4.72 FIP screams for regression and he’s stretching it as a #2.

 

Good Things Come in Threes

 

28) Carlos Carrasco – CLE – 80.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 23.5% K-BB%, 1.0 fWAR

 

54) Kenta Maeda – MN – 153.2 IP, 4.04 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 18.9% K-BB%, 2.5 fWAR

 

71) Dylan Cease – CWS – 73.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 5.19 FIP, 14.1% K-BB%, 0.7 fWAR

 

Cleveland really has the top three covered, as Carrasco’s ranking would technically make him a #1 as well. However, there is plenty of uncertainly in this group. Carrasco battled leukemia during the 2019 season, but he put up 5.2 and 5.4 fWAR in his previous two seasons, so the potential is there. Maeda's ranking suggests he’s somewhere between being a #2 and #3 starter. It is yet to be seen how his results will translate to pitching in the American League for the first time, but he undoubtably strengthens Minnesota’s rotation. Dylan Cease is young, but he throws really hard and Chicago hopes he will put it all together in his second season.

 

May the Fours Be with You

 

76) Michael Kopech – CWS – Missed 2019 due to Tommy John surgery

 

78) Aaron Civale – CLE – 57.2 IP, 2.34 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 13.2% K-BB%, 1.5 fWAR

 

88) Michael Pineda – MN – 146.0 IP, 4.01 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 18.7% K-BB%, 2.7 fWAR

 

Michael Kopech will probably begin the season in AAA as he makes his way back from Tommy John, but the top prospect should be able to find a way into the rotation sooner rather than later. Aaron Civale was a pleasant surprise in Cleveland with better-than-expected results in his first MLB stint. Pineda gives the Twins a really solid #4. He finished strong prior to his suspension, and the time he will miss to begin this season undoubtedly knocked him down a few pegs.

 

Five Alive

 

104) Randy Dobnak – MN – 28.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 15.3% K-BB%, 0.8 fWAR

 

127) Zach Plesac – CLE – 115.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 4.94 FIP, 10.1% K-BB%, 1.0 fWAR

 

131) Reynaldo Lopez – CWS – 184.0 IP, 5.38 ERA, 5.04 FIP, 12.9% K-BB%, 2.3 fWAR

 

Unfortunately for Dobnak, the recent acquisitions of Maeda and Jhoulys Chacin greatly reduce the odds that he makes the opening day rotation. Still, he was great in his handful of MLB outings in 2019 and gives Minnesota invaluable depth. Like Civale, Plesac also exceeded expectations for the Tribe in 2019, but his secondary numbers suggest regression. Lopez is more of an innings eater at this point, as he has yet to really put it all together for the Sox.

 

Additional Notes:

 

- Cleveland’s rotation looks good, but it is worth noting that they traded away both the 27th and 32nd ranked pitchers in Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer.

 

- Rich Hill will certainly be one of Minnesota’s top starters if he comes back healthy, but due to the missed time and uncertainty he comes in at 118.

 

- Homer Bailey ranked 125th and seems destined to open the season in the rotation, but his status will be uncertain once Pineda and Hill return. He makes seven Twins pitchers in the top 125.

 

- Other Twins pitchers who made the list were Devin Smeltzer at 154 and the recently-acquired Jhoulys Chacin (who has a good chance of temporarily grabbing the #5 slot) at 171.

 

- Chicago’s Gio Gonzalez came in at 157 and will likely take Kopech’s rotation spot to begin 2020.

 

- Detriot’s pitching future looks promising. Matthew Boyd appears 41st, followed by Spencer Turnbull (70), prospects Matt Manning (113) and Casey Mize (121), and finally Daniel Norris (152). They also have a third top-50 caliber pitching prospect in LHP Tarik Skubal.

 

With the addition of Maeda and the amount of pitching depth the Twins have, coupled with strong bullpen and superlative offense, things are looking good for 2020. How do you feel the Twins rotation stacks up? Please leave your comments below.

 

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[High heat]

So we are still assuming we are getting Maeda?

 

With him on paper our starting pitching is on par with the division.

Our offense should carry this team through the regular season.

 

Baseball is a funky game, injuries unforeseen poor play or great play can carry or derail a team. Regardless of what happens is the Maeda deal it should be a fun summer.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

…what the?……have we not spent the entire day obsessively reloading Twitter? Are we really just pretending…I don’t get it…I’m out fellas…I’m out.

[IndianaTwin]

Given that virtually every team goes more than five deep over the course of the season, it would be interesting to extend your list at least Nos. 6 and 7. Based on your notes section, I’m guessing that the Twins would rank significantly higher. That’s part of what I think is the strength of their rotation. I don’t think an injury to someone in the top three will have the devastating effect for the Twins as it would for the others. 

 

I’m too cheap to pay for The Athletic. As you beyond who he’s sandwiched by, does Berrios seem about right. That ranking seems low to me, considering that he’s still A bit younger than average and should improve. I do find it interesting that he’s ranked a spot ahead of Wheeler, who this board was generally enamored with and seemed to rank higher than Berrios. 

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

So we are still assuming we are getting Maeda? With him on paper our starting pitching is on par with the division. Our offense should carry this team through the regular season. Baseball is a funky game, injuries unforeseen poor play or great play can carry or derail a team. Regardless of what happens is the Maeda deal it should be a fun summer.

I'm attempting to write the trade into fruition ! In actuality, I started writing this before Maeda and then finished it before the Graterol stuff broke. Hill was originally in the #5 spot.

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

Given that virtually every team goes more than five deep over the course of the season, it would be interesting to extend your list at least Nos. 6 and 7. Based on your notes section, I’m guessing that the Twins would rank significantly higher. That’s part of what I think is the strength of their rotation. I don’t think an injury to someone in the top three will have the devastating effect for the Twins as it would for the others. 

 

I’m too cheap to pay for The Athletic. As you beyond who he’s sandwiched by, does Berrios seem about right. That ranking seems low to me, considering that he’s still A bit younger than average and should improve. I do find it interesting that he’s ranked a spot ahead of Wheeler, who this board was generally enamored with and seemed to rank higher than Berrios. 

Yeah, you're correct - the Twins do rank higher. This list only goes to 175 but the Twins have 6) Hill - 118, 7) Bailey - 125, 8) Smeltzer - 154, 9) Chacin - 171, while Cleveland has just Plutko at 161 and Chicago has Gonzalez at 157. Even without Maeda the Twins have the best depth by far (we also have Thorpe), but Cleveland does have a knack for bringing up unknown pitchers who outperform expectations.

[Patrick Wozniak]

As for sandwiches... Odorizzi is between Joe Musgrove and Andrew Heaney and just behind Bumgarner but ahead of Stroman. Maeda is sandwiched by Lance Lynn and Lance McCullers and just ahead of Ohtoni and Archer. Pineda is between Jose Quintana and Domingo German, while Dobnak is Nate Pearson/Dakota Hudson. Some delicious names!

[mikelink45]

Cleveland wins this without a doubt.  They have three ACES.  The top three get the most innings and most games.  Then Civale and Plutko did great last year.  Lets not analyse until we get the results we want.  

 

Kluber is not fairly ranked - we do not know where he will be with health and ST, but I would take him.  

 

I am upset if Chacin beats out Dobnak - we need at least one of our rookie crop to get some exposure to MLB.  Lots of mediocre veterans do not make a staff.  I am pleased with our to three (even though they are well below Cleveland) because we have the bats to elevate them and Cleveland has an OF that looks like an AAAA convention. 

[old nurse]

Koepech is still a prospect. Potentially he is good. Potentially he is still just a work in progress.

[beckmt]

 

Given that virtually every team goes more than five deep over the course of the season, it would be interesting to extend your list at least Nos. 6 and 7. Based on your notes section, I’m guessing that the Twins would rank significantly higher. That’s part of what I think is the strength of their rotation. I don’t think an injury to someone in the top three will have the devastating effect for the Twins as it would for the others. 

 

I’m too cheap to pay for The Athletic. As you beyond who he’s sandwiched by, does Berrios seem about right. That ranking seems low to me, considering that he’s still A bit younger than average and should improve. I do find it interesting that he’s ranked a spot ahead of Wheeler, who this board was generally enamored with and seemed to rank higher than Berrios. 

If you can't get the Athletic on a decent deal, I just don't know.  I talked one of my kids into this being a Christmas present.  Ran about $30.

Biggest difference is the Twins offense vs the rest of the division.  Outside of Cleveland, which will be dangerous if they can field a decent offense, Twins pitching + offense should carry the day.

[Melissa]

 

I’m too cheap to pay for The Athletic. 

Well, I find it to be a very rich and enjoyable site. As said above, they sometimes offer half-price deals. Currently doing in-depth biographical stories on the top 100 baseball players of all time. Lots of good content in various sports, a few clunkers. I follow their writers on the Twins, Gopher basketball and football, baseball in general, Packers, 49s (my fiancée's team). 

[Riverbrian]

 

 49s (my fiancée's team). 

 

You can still change your mind. It's not too late.