How Well Does Minnesota’s Rotation Stack Up Against Cleveland and Chicago’s?

Over at the Athletic, Eno Sarris recently released 2020 starting pitching rankings, mainly for fantasy purposes. But the nice thing about his rankings is that he used a nice mix of criteria. He combined stuff ratings from Driveline Baseball, command numbers from STATS Perform, and projections from ATC, which is basically a composite of the best projection systems. We’ll use these rankings to break down the rotations, starting from the “aces” and working our way down to the #5’s.

The Aces

8) Shane Beiber – CLE – 214.1 IP, 3.28 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 25.5% K-BB%, 5.6 fWAR

23) Jose Berrios – MN – 200.1 IP, 3.68 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 17.1% K-BB%, 4.4 fWAR

29) Lucas Giolito – CWS – 176.2 IP, 3.41 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 24.2% K-BB%, 5.1 fWAR

The only question here was whether Shane Beiber or teammate Mike Clevinger would come first. Giolito’s 2019 numbers were better than Berrios’s across the board, but it was a breakout year and Berrios possesses the stronger track record. Berrios is sandwiched by Zack Greinke and Zach Wheeler in the rankings.

The Second Fiddles

9) Mike Clevinger – CLE – 126.0 IP, 2.71 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 26.5% K-BB%, 4.5 fWAR

47) Jake Odorizzi – MN – 159.0 IP, 3.51 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 19.0% K-BB%, 4.3 fWAR

61) Dallas Keuchel – CWS – 112.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 10.7% K-BB%, 0.8 fWAR

First off, Clevinger clearly belongs in the “aces” group and is arguably the division’s best starter. Odorizzi lacks the innings of Berrios, but otherwise his 2019 numbers actually beat his rotation mate’s. His 47th overall ranking put him in steady #2 territory. Keuchel has name recognition, but the 32-year-old’s 4.72 FIP screams for regression and he’s stretching it as a #2.

Good Things Come in Threes

28) Carlos Carrasco – CLE – 80.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 23.5% K-BB%, 1.0 fWAR

54) Kenta Maeda – MN – 153.2 IP, 4.04 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 18.9% K-BB%, 2.5 fWAR

71) Dylan Cease – CWS – 73.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 5.19 FIP, 14.1% K-BB%, 0.7 fWAR

Cleveland really has the top three covered, as Carrasco’s ranking would technically make him a #1 as well. However, there is plenty of uncertainly in this group. Carrasco battled leukemia during the 2019 season, but he put up 5.2 and 5.4 fWAR in his previous two seasons, so the potential is there. Maeda's ranking suggests he’s somewhere between being a #2 and #3 starter. It is yet to be seen how his results will translate to pitching in the American League for the first time, but he undoubtably strengthens Minnesota’s rotation. Dylan Cease is young, but he throws really hard and Chicago hopes he will put it all together in his second season.

May the Fours Be with You

76) Michael Kopech – CWS – Missed 2019 due to Tommy John surgery

78) Aaron Civale – CLE – 57.2 IP, 2.34 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 13.2% K-BB%, 1.5 fWAR

88) Michael Pineda – MN – 146.0 IP, 4.01 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 18.7% K-BB%, 2.7 fWAR

Michael Kopech will probably begin the season in AAA as he makes his way back from Tommy John, but the top prospect should be able to find a way into the rotation sooner rather than later. Aaron Civale was a pleasant surprise in Cleveland with better-than-expected results in his first MLB stint. Pineda gives the Twins a really solid #4. He finished strong prior to his suspension, and the time he will miss to begin this season undoubtedly knocked him down a few pegs.

Five Alive

104) Randy Dobnak – MN – 28.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 15.3% K-BB%, 0.8 fWAR

127) Zach Plesac – CLE – 115.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 4.94 FIP, 10.1% K-BB%, 1.0 fWAR

131) Reynaldo Lopez – CWS – 184.0 IP, 5.38 ERA, 5.04 FIP, 12.9% K-BB%, 2.3 fWAR

Unfortunately for Dobnak, the recent acquisitions of Maeda and Jhoulys Chacin greatly reduce the odds that he makes the opening day rotation. Still, he was great in his handful of MLB outings in 2019 and gives Minnesota invaluable depth. Like Civale, Plesac also exceeded expectations for the Tribe in 2019, but his secondary numbers suggest regression. Lopez is more of an innings eater at this point, as he has yet to really put it all together for the Sox.

Additional Notes:

- Cleveland’s rotation looks good, but it is worth noting that they traded away both the 27th and 32nd ranked pitchers in Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer.

- Rich Hill will certainly be one of Minnesota’s top starters if he comes back healthy, but due to the missed time and uncertainty he comes in at 118.

- Homer Bailey ranked 125th and seems destined to open the season in the rotation, but his status will be uncertain once Pineda and Hill return. He makes seven Twins pitchers in the top 125.

- Other Twins pitchers who made the list were Devin Smeltzer at 154 and the recently-acquired Jhoulys Chacin (who has a good chance of temporarily grabbing the #5 slot) at 171.

- Chicago’s Gio Gonzalez came in at 157 and will likely take Kopech’s rotation spot to begin 2020.

- Detriot’s pitching future looks promising. Matthew Boyd appears 41st, followed by Spencer Turnbull (70), prospects Matt Manning (113) and Casey Mize (121), and finally Daniel Norris (152). They also have a third top-50 caliber pitching prospect in LHP Tarik Skubal.

With the addition of Maeda and the amount of pitching depth the Twins have, coupled with strong bullpen and superlative offense, things are looking good for 2020. How do you feel the Twins rotation stacks up? Please leave your comments below.

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