Twins Trade Target: Kirby Yates

[Loosey]

Kirby Yates is having a fantastic season.  The best of his career, by far.  Currently the holder of an ERA under 2, a WHIP of 0.81 and WAR of 2.5.

 

Needless to say Kirby Yates is probably at his peak right now.  If the Padres want to maximize his return they should trade him while he stays up there.  However, how high is that peak and what would it take to get Kirby Yates? 

Most likely at some point Yates will likely regress a little bit (ZiPS has him at at 2.55 ERA the rest of the way), but looking at his body of work over the last 2.5 years he has been a solid relief pitcher with a high strikeout rate.  And that is where I think the Twins or any team vying for his services and win.  He has one more year of control after this year so he is more than a rental and hopefully would continue to pitch at a high level, even with his age.

 

He does not have a long record of being a dominant closer or reliever.  But even if he regresses to 2018 levels he likely becomes the 2nd best reliever in the Twins bullpen.  If he continues to pitch like has (statistically he is the best if baseball) he is up there with or better than Taylor Rogers or, who can move into a the fireman role.

 

The question is what will it take to get him?  

 

Would a combination of Fernando Romero and Jaylin Davis get there attention or am I way off?

[alarp33]

 

Kirby Yates is having a fantastic season.  The best of his career, by far.  Currently the holder of an ERA under 2, a WHIP of 0.81 and WAR of 2.5.

 

Needless to say Kirby Yates is probably at his peak right now.  If the Padres want to maximize his return they should trade him while he stays up there.  However, how high is that peak and what would it take to get Kirby Yates? 

Most likely at some point Yates will likely regress a little bit (ZiPS has him at at 2.55 ERA the rest of the way), but looking at his body of work over the last 2.5 years he has been a solid relief pitcher with a high strikeout rate.  And that is where I think the Twins or any team vying for his services and win.  He has one more year of control after this year so he is more than a rental and hopefully would continue to pitch at a high level, even with his age.

 

He does not have a long record of being a dominant closer or reliever.  But even if he regresses to 2018 levels he likely becomes the 2nd best reliever in the Twins bullpen.  If he continues to pitch like has (statistically he is the best if baseball) he is up there with or better than Taylor Rogers or, who can move into a the fireman role.

 

The question is what will it take to get him?  

 

Would a combination of Fernando Romero and Jaylin Davis get there attention or am I way off?

 

I would assume you are wayyyy off on what it would take. The Padres got a top prospect from CLE for Brad Hand (who had more control, but similar shorter track record of dominant success). 

 

I would imagine if the conversation doesn't start with Kiriloff, it would start with one of the top 2 pitching prospects. 

[nicksaviking]

Not sure if that's enough, but maybe. I know enough posters have soured on him and will likely disagree, but I think Fernando Romero is pitcher that a lot of other teams would love to buy low on. 

 

I mean if the shoe was on the other foot, many of us would probably be interested in say,Touki Toussaint. You just need to get someone to whisper "Tyler Glasnow" in the other GM's ear while while you're making the offer.

[J_Dobs]

Yates would be #1 on my trade list. I am thinking they will hang on to him if they are trying to upgrade the rotation mostly for next year. But if he is on the block, I have to think it would take one of Graterol or Balazovic, plus someone else in the 50 range.

[Loosey]

 

Yates would be #1 on my trade list. I am thinking they will hang on to him if they are trying to upgrade the rotation mostly for next year. But if he is on the block, I have to think it would take one of Graterol or Balazovic, plus someone else in the 50 range.

I think I would make that trade.  Balazovic could be a very good MLB pitcher, but the Twins have had a lot of minor league pitchers that "could be" really good.  I'm ok with giving up that type of asset to get a proven one to make a run now.  

 

The one thing this front office has knack for is finding good young talent in the minors so giving up pieces means they only have to reload in the offseason.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I would assume you are wayyyy off on what it would take. The Padres got a top prospect from CLE for Brad Hand (who had more control, but similar shorter track record of dominant success). 

 

I would imagine if the conversation doesn't start with Kiriloff, it would start with one of the top 2 pitching prospects. 

Actually it's a pretty good offer. Yates has  what, one year of control beyond this? That's in the Pressley range, and he isn't as good as Pressley was. 

[SwainZag]

I think it should be noted that Yates is 32 and will be 33 on Opening Day next year.  Brad Hand was 4 years younger at the time of the trade last year, that has to be taken into account.

[Loosey]

 

I think it should be noted that Yates is 32 and will be 33 on Opening Day next year.  Brad Hand was 4 years younger at the time of the trade last year, that has to be taken into account.

I agree with that and that is why my fake offer was what it was.  You hope you get the lights out reliever for the rest of this season and next season have a good 7th inning guy who is an upgrade from the current roster.

[Tomj14]

I would do that trade in a heart beat and throw in a wild card in the low minors.

[Danchat]

Methinks a Yates trade would need to be headlined with somebody like Larnach and have a couple additional prospects along with him. It sounds like they’re looking to trade, but their asking price is high.

[Doomtints]

The Padres are starving for pitching which makes them a less than ideal trading partner for the Twins.

 

We should consider players on teams that need a bat or want to dump salary, as these are the only things the Twins could offer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not sure if that's enough, but maybe. I know enough posters have soured on him and will likely disagree, but I think Fernando Romero is pitcher that a lot of other teams would love to buy low on.

 

But accepting Romero (plus Davis) for Yates right now would not be "buying low" on Romero at all.

[alarp33]

 

Actually it's a pretty good offer. Yates has  what, one year of control beyond this? That's in the Pressley range, and he isn't as good as Pressley was. 

 

Yates has been the best relief pitcher in baseball this year, significantly better than Pressley was when he was traded last season by whatever metric you want to use

[Otto von Ballpark]

Actually it's a pretty good offer. Yates has what, one year of control beyond this? That's in the Pressley range, and he isn't as good as Pressley was.

Yates isn't as good as Pressly was?

 

I've defended Pressly's 2018 Twins performance on this site before, but even I have to say this is going too far.

[alarp33]

 

Yates isn't as good as Pressly was?

I've defended Pressly's 2018 Twins performance on this site before, but even I have to say this is going too far.

 

Pressley 2018 w/ Twins:

 

127 ERA+

3.40 ERA / 1.364 WHIP

2.95 FIP

 

Yates 2019:

 

404 ERA+

1.05 ERA / .814 WHIP

1.11 FIP

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think it should be noted that Yates is 32 and will be 33 on Opening Day next year. Brad Hand was 4 years younger at the time of the trade last year, that has to be taken into account.

That's fair, although one could also say that the Padres made a risky trade with Hand for Mejia. And the Padres contention status/timeline has changed in the last year too, so what was acceptable to them last year may not be accepted in 2019.

[ashbury]

Methinks a Yates trade would need to be headlined with somebody like Larnach and have a couple additional prospects along with him. It sounds like they’re looking to trade, but their asking price is high.

If Larnach is traded for any reliever, the drafting strategy is a failure. The FO has pointedly avoided best starter available in their drafts, in favor of picking surer hitting talents. This looks like an intention to trade some of the eventual surplus, for pitching that is further developed. To trade him for a reliever leaves unanswered the question, "so where are the front of the rotation pitchers supposed to come from?"

 

All the above is IMO.

[jorgenswest]

If Larnach is traded for any reliever, the drafting strategy is a failure. The FO has pointedly avoided best starter available in their drafts, in favor of picking surer hitting talents. This looks like an intention to trade some of the eventual surplus, for pitching that is further developed. To trade him for a reliever leaves unanswered the question, "so where are the front of the rotation pitchers supposed to come from?"

 

All the above is IMO.

Where are the late inning relievers supposed to come from?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Where are the late inning relievers supposed to come from?

The failed front of the rotation prospects?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Pressley 2018 w/ Twins:

 

127 ERA+

3.40 ERA / 1.364 WHIP

2.95 FIP

 

Yates 2019:

 

404 ERA+

1.05 ERA / .814 WHIP

1.11 FIP

 

Guess I need to pay closer attention to the stats... wow. 404 ERA+??? Is that a typo?

[jorgenswest]

The failed front of the rotation prospects?

Does that mean they shouldn’t trade any good prospects for relievers and instead rely on their failed starters to fill out the bullpen? I would define good as at least 45 FV which fangraphs sets as low end regular/platoon.

 

I think it is going to retake a good prospect to get Kirby Yates.

[Danchat]

 

If Larnach is traded for any reliever, the drafting strategy is a failure. The FO has pointedly avoided best starter available in their drafts, in favor of picking surer hitting talents. This looks like an intention to trade some of the eventual surplus, for pitching that is further developed. To trade him for a reliever leaves unanswered the question, "so where are the front of the rotation pitchers supposed to come from?"

 

All the above is IMO.

Well, this team has not proven to be able to develop relievers, and they are seemingly very good at developing hitters, so why not trade from what we do well with to acquire a guy that we haven't been able to develop? I get that they also need starters, but I think 2.5 years of Yates is reasonable for Larnach. Maybe it's not an ideal move, but I'd rather do that than trade for nobody.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think 2.5 years of Yates is reasonable for Larnach.

FYI, it's only 1.5 years of Yates.

[Danchat]

 

FYI, it's only 1.5 years of Yates.

Oh whoops, you're right. Perhaps Larnach would be a bit much then...

[USAFChief]

Watching tonight's game, I've decided I'd trade the entire minor league system, the ST Paul Saints, and a couple of right leaning St Cloud area counties.

[alarp33]

 

Watching tonight's game, I've decided I'd trade the entire minor league system, the ST Paul Saints, and a couple of right leaning St Cloud area counties.

 

Yates would be great. After watching last night I'd almost be more likely to try and trade for 3 good arms than 1 great arm. Need guys who can pitch the 6th, 7th and 8th as well. 

 

Rogers has been unbelievable this year, but nibbling against the #9 hitter when you have him 1-2 is unexcusable. How does that happen at the major league level. Throw him a damn strike and make him hit it. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Rogers has been unbelievable this year, but nibbling against the #9 hitter when you have him 1-2 is unexcusable. How does that happen at the major league level. Throw him a damn strike and make him hit it. 

Joe Nathan also walked the Yankees #9 hitter (Miguel Cairo) in the process of losing 2004 ALDS Game 2. (Never got to a 2-strike count though -- called strike 1 and then four straight balls.)

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

Joe Nathan also walked the Yankees #9 hitter (Miguel Cairo) in the process of losing 2004 ALDS Game 2. (Never got to a 2-strike count though -- called strike 1 and then four straight balls.)

 

Thanks for the trip down memory lane!

 

Always fun.