Twins Need Sellers

[Aerodeliria]

While I get that you’re looking at this more from the perspective of our current pitching needs, considering the high likelihood that Cruz will be gone after the 2020 season, along with questions around Sano’s ability to remain at 3B, I actually would love to have a Gold Glover like Longoria at 3B, with the hope that he can once again put up respectable numbers for the position. Now I understand that Longo hasn’t hit very well in his time in the Bay Area, but I can’t help but feel like he’s got more in the tank. Perhaps this new coaching staff could help him develop a new approach/rediscover his swing.

I have two queries.

 

1) What were the projections on Longoria for this season? If they were reasonably good, maybe we could agree to take on part of the 25 million.

 

2) How much cash did we have to eat with Logan Forsythe? It's a real question. I can't remember.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I have two queries.

1) What were the projections on Longoria for this season? If they were reasonably good, maybe we could agree to take on part of the 25 million.

2) How much cash did we have to eat with Logan Forsythe? It's a real question. I can't remember.

1. Longoria is owed a lot more than $25m. Doing the math in my head (and deducting the $2m per season paid by Tampa) so the numbers might be off by a couple of million, his contract will cost between $55m-60m at minimum (assuming the team opts to buy out that last season and not keep him aboard).

 

2. Not much. Forsythe only made $9m that year so the Twins took on $4m, tops. I vaguely recall it was less than that but can't remember the specifics. Not enough to really move the needle, basically.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1) What were the projections on Longoria for this season? If they were reasonably good, maybe we could agree to take on part of the 25 million.

Preseason ZiPS for Longoria was 95 wRC+, 1.7 WAR. Although ZiPS now pegs him finishing with a ~86 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR based on his season so far.

 

And as Brock alluded to, the Giants still owe Longoria ~$55.25 mil over the next 3.5 years.

[Vanimal46]

Yikes... My fault for bringing up $25 million. I was going off RB's post on page 1 saying his contract was 2/34.

 

Now that I looked at his contract that's a firm Hell no for me.

[Riverbrian]

Yikes... My fault for bringing up $25 million. I was going off RB's post on page 1 saying his contract was 2/34.

 

Now that I looked at his contract that's a firm Hell no for me.

That’s my fault. I totally missed the 19.6 due to him in 2022 due to rushing to get it posted.

[Vanimal46]

That’s my fault. I totally missed the 19.6 due to him in 2022 due to rushing to get it posted.

It's not your fault! I appreciate you taking the effort to do that for multiple teams. It's on me for being too lazy to look for myself

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Perhaps I'm being a little hard on Eppler, he walked into a tough room but his approach has only slightly changed from his predecessors, if it has at all. 

 

They are stuck in a cycle of having to spend continually because the little youth they had was traded away to acquire more vets that got hurt or didn't perform and they just try again next year.

 

Outside of Trout, the best prospects they produced... produced elsewhere to add everyone from Ianetta to Simmons. 

Sorry to further the tangent, but this is incorrect. Eppler replaced Jerry Dipoto, and there's been a pretty stark difference. In his ~4 years at the helm, Dipoto signed Pujols, Wilson, and Hamilton (and soon ate $62 mil just to get rid of him), traded Chatwood for Iannetta, traded Segura to rent Greinke, and traded Clevinger to Cleveland. (In fairness, Dipoto also somehow turned Trumbo into Skaggs and Santiago, and Kendrick into Heaney.)

 

Since Eppler took over, the Angels have only sent away 1 prospect of note, Sean Newcomb. And before you say "they shouldn't have traded him either", Newcomb has produced 3.4 WAR to date and has already been shifted to the bullpen by the Braves, while the Angels have received 18.4 bWAR from Simmons for only $31.5 mil so far.

 

Eppler has also only signed one "big" FA contract, Justin Upton, who didn't cost any draft compensation and he's worked out well so far (helps that he was younger/cheaper than Hamilton!).

 

Eppler's made some modest strides in the farm system too, taking arguably one of the worst systems and turning it into something functional despite a lack of tradable assets or high draft picks. (Certainly could do better in this regard, though.)

 

I'm no Angels or Eppler fan, but the evidence says that where Eppler has really fallen down -- modest FA signings like Cozart, Harvey, Cahill, Allen -- is really not much different than where the 2018 Twins fell down too, with Morrison, Lynn, Reed, etc.

[Riverbrian]

It's not your fault! I appreciate you taking the effort to do that for multiple teams. It's on me for being too lazy to look for myself

Twinsdaily has been doing a series of great articles on potential trade acquisitions in the bullpen but in my opinion, guys like Hand may be off the table so I was trying to be comprehensive quickly from the current (what I believe to be) sellers list.

 

Not just relievers but every position because upgrading for a playoff stretch doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t consider other spots on the field.

 

Ultimately I was trying to get a sense of what is available along with what others teams will compete for those assets. It is heavy buyer... light seller at the moment. Can’t wait for OTHER teams to go on long losing streaks for better balance.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Ultimately I was trying to get a sense of what is available along with what others teams will compete for those assets. It is heavy buyer... light seller at the moment. Can’t wait for OTHER teams to go on long losing streaks for better balance.

 

This will probably change in 2-3 weeks. I don't expect a whole lot of teams to throw in the white flag just yet, and even if they make a trade, I suspect you're going to pay a premium for it. That makes sense in getting a guy like Matt Boyd in my opinion, since he'll be around for a while, but not so much for short term rentals on a team that has a commanding lead. 

 

But yeah, back to your point, this will change. It always does. Most teams have a pretty good idea what their cracks on, and we've seen more and more bubble teams go into sell mode. There's two WC spots, and I don't anticipate more than 4 teams in each league really going after them. 

[Riverbrian]

 

This will probably change in 2-3 weeks. I don't expect a whole lot of teams to throw in the white flag just yet, and even if they make a trade, I suspect you're going to pay a premium for it. That makes sense in getting a guy like Matt Boyd in my opinion, since he'll be around for a while, but not so much for short term rentals on a team that has a commanding lead. 

 

But yeah, back to your point, this will change. It always does. Most teams have a pretty good idea what their cracks on, and we've seen more and more bubble teams go into sell mode. There's two WC spots, and I don't anticipate more than 4 teams in each league really going after them. 

 

Agreed... More candidates will identify themselves with a badly timed bad stretch. 

 

However... I'm not sure if the National League will loosen up much. With the exception of the Giants and Marlins... You could make a case for every other team. 

[tlkriens]

If Washington was willing to trade Scherzer, would/should the Twins give up Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff as the centerpieces of the trade? I would.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If Washington was willing to trade Scherzer, would/should the Twins give up Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff as the centerpieces of the trade? I would.

Negative. To even contemplate such a deal with that kind of prospect haul leaving Minnesota, the Nationals would have to pay most/all of Scherzer's contract and they're incredibly unlikely to do that.

 

His contract details are absolutely bonkers. He has roughly $500 trillion coming in deferred money through 2028 (only a slight exaggeration).

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/max-scherzer-5166/

[USAFChief]

Negative. To even contemplate such a deal with that kind of prospect haul leaving Minnesota, the Nationals would have to pay most/all of Scherzer's contract and they're incredibly unlikely to do that.

 

His contract details are absolutely bonkers. He has roughly $500 trillion coming in deferred money through 2028 (only a slight exaggeration).

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/max-scherzer-5166/

We've been through this. The deferred money is actually his 2019, 2020, and 2021 salaries.

 

If Scherzer were to come available, there is no pitcher out there who would have a better chance of helping, and he'd be here for 2 more years.

 

Kiriloff and Lewis, with Washington picking up some if the money? Do that deal immediately.

[Brock Beauchamp]

We've been through this. The deferred money is actually his 2019, 2020, and 2021 salaries.

 

If Scherzer were to come available, there is no pitcher out there who would have a better chance of helping, and he'd be here for 2 more years.

 

Kiriloff and Lewis, with Washington picking up some if the money? Do that deal immediately.

It depends on the definition of “some” but I’m not entirely against the deal in theory, just against a straight trade because it’s unrealistic.

 

And the deferred money is not only half of his 2019-forward salaries. It’s an extra $15m every year he played for the Nats, too.

 

Oh, and his $50m signing bonus appears to be spread out over the entire contract. So that’s another $15-35m tacked on depending on the details of the bonus, which are vaguely written in reports (it’s unclear whether $50m is spread over seven or 14 years).

 

It starts to add up, doesn’t it?

[dex8425]

 

If Washington was willing to trade Scherzer, would/should the Twins give up Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff as the centerpieces of the trade? I would.

 

 

It will never happen but I would do that deal in a heartbeat. Instantly. Yes, please. Scherzer is a hall of famer and arguably the best pitcher in baseball and we would get him for 2.5 years. That's what, 15-19 WAR? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

It will never happen but I would do that deal in a heartbeat. Instantly. Yes, please. Scherzer is a hall of famer and arguably the best pitcher in baseball and we would get him for 2.5 years. That's what, 15-19 WAR?

All for the low, low price of ~$120m for 2.5 seasons of play.

 

For Scherzer to even be considered, a lot of money will have to come along with him because Washington structured his contract to make it all but untradeable. He doesn’t even get half of his 2015 paycheck until 2022. And half his 2016 paycheck until 2023. Continue for seven years.

[dex8425]

 

All for the low, low price of ~$120m for 2.5 seasons of play.

For Scherzer to even be considered, a lot of money will have to come along with him because Washington structured his contract to make it all but untradeable. He doesn’t even get half of his 2015 paycheck until 2022. And half his 2016 paycheck until 2023. Continue for seven years.

 

 

Agreed. And I doubt the Nats 1. want to trade him, regardless of the return; and 2. want to trade him now when they want to contend in 2020. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It depends on the definition of “some” but I’m not entirely against the deal in theory, just against a straight trade because it’s unrealistic.

And the deferred money is not only half of his 2019-forward salaries. It’s an extra $15m every year he played for the Nats, too.

Oh, and his $50m signing bonus appears to be spread out over the entire contract. So that’s another $15-35m tacked on depending on the details of the bonus, which are vaguely written in reports (it’s unclear whether $50m is spread over seven or 14 years).

It starts to add up, doesn’t it?

This is incorrect.

 

Any deferred salary already earned (say, from the 2015 season) is the responsibility of the team that he played for at the time (in this case, the Nationals), even if it's not to be paid until later.

 

Same for the signing bonus -- it is the responsibility of the team that signed him, even if its payment is deferred.

 

So any team acquiring Scherzer would only be on the hook for his 2019-2021 salaries (pending any cash negotiation with the Nationals, of course). At this point, that's roughly 2.5 times 35, or $87.5 mil (to be paid in installments from 2022-2028).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Re: deferred money

 

It should make intuitive sense that the team which incurs the expense (either signing bonus or past salary) is obligated to pay it, even if deferred to the future.

 

But here's a MLBTR post about Zack Greinke which illustrates the principle in a real-world example:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/latest-on-zack-greinke-2.html

 

 

Greinke, 35, has three years and $104.5MM remaining on his contract between his guaranteed salaries and a trio of $3MM payouts on an $18MM signing bonus that was spread out over the life of his six-year, $206.5MM deal. However, Buchanan reports within his column that the signing bonus payouts will remain the D-backs’ responsibility even in the event of a trade.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is incorrect.

 

Any deferred salary already earned (say, from the 2015 season) is the responsibility of the team that he played for at the time (in this case, the Nationals), even if it's not to be paid until later.

 

Same for the signing bonus -- it is the responsibility of the team that signed him, even if its payment is deferred.

 

So any team acquiring Scherzer would only be on the hook for his 2019-2021 salaries (pending any cash negotiation with the Nationals, of course). At this point, that's roughly 2.5 times 35, or $87.5 mil (to be paid in installments from 2022-2028).

Interesting. Is this a rule in baseball contracts or just the Scherzer deal?

 

If this is correct, that changes things quite a bit. The Twins wouldn’t owe Scherzer any additional money until... 2025, I think?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Interesting. Is this a rule in baseball contracts or just the Scherzer deal?

If this is correct, that changes things quite a bit. The Twins wouldn’t owe Scherzer any additional money until... 2025, I think?

Rule for all. See my Greinke example above. Deferred bonuses/salary is different than simple backloading.

 

I think any team trading for Scherzer now, and taking on the full salary, would starting paying him in 2023 (the second of the seven annual $15 mil payments from 2022-2028, since the first $15 mil payment would represent his first half 2019 salary which the Nationals are already obligated to pay). Absent any special cash negotiation with the Nats, of course.

[USAFChief]

Interesting. Is this a rule in baseball contracts or just the Scherzer deal?

If this is correct, that changes things quite a bit. The Twins wouldn’t owe Scherzer any additional money until... 2025, I think?

It’s Scherzer’s 2019, 2020, and 2021 salaries that are deferred.

 

He earns $35m in each of these three years, but the money is deferred, payable as $15m in each of the years 2022-2027.

 

He is due a $15m signing bonus in 20 and 2021, but as Spy points out, that is almost certainly Washington’s responsibility.

 

So if the Twins took on the entire contract, they’d owe $105m, at $15m per year, 2022-2027.

 

Per Cots https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So if the Twins took on the entire contract, they’d owe $105m, at $15m per year, 2022-2027.

Per Cots https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/

Yup, although even that's already down about $17.5 mil, as the 2019 season is basically half over. So I'd estimate the remaining obligation on Scherzer at $87.5 mil right now.

 

And for luxury tax purposes, MLB previously estimated the deferred money reduced the contract value by about 8.8%, so that $87.5 mil deferred may only be ~$79.75 mil in present-day dollars.

[mrtwinsfan]

 

Marlins:

 

Here is a look at who they could try to sell: Ranked based on MY OPINION of each players individual value/Cost to acquire.

 

Romo - Rental - Only injury will prevent him from being on another roster in August. 

 

Castro - Rental - I'll be surprised if he is still with the Marlins in August

 

Prado - Rental - I'll be surprised if he is still with the Marlins in August 

 

Walker - Rental - 50/50 on if anyone is interested or anyone cares. 

 

Please take the contract off our Hands:

 

Chen - 1/22 (16M Vesting Option - 180 IP next season)

 

Anyone tickle your interest for our Twins. If So, which teams will be bidding against us.

 

I'd ask about: Romo

Please anyone but ROMO

[cmoss84]

Not sure how much Daniel Hudson has been mentioned here but watching him now vs Yanks and he looks pretty nasty. 96-98 (while pitching inside) and slider 86-88. Might be a nice, cheap alternative to a few other names.