2020 Presidential Election

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think the "creepy Joe" stuff will keep Biden out. Frankly, he's already run twice and lost and he'll be 80 in office and he has a lot of skeletons, even if they're minor compared to Trump. There are better options. At the moment, my preference is Amy or Pete. But really anyone but Bernie will do.

 

It think that stuff will be weaponized against Biden, fair or not, and he's all but toast.  All things considered I think he had one of the better chances against Trump.  Now the field is pretty open IMO.

 

What's your opposition to Bernie?  Just curious.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Biden will not make out of the primary. No way. The polls are wrong. Way better options. Democrats are much better off with Pete, Harris, Klobs', Beto, Warren. I'm very much against regurgitated candidates that didn't win.

I agree about the polls being wrong, and also about recycled candidates from either party. I’m still suspicious of some of the names in the race though.

 

Speaking of polls, has anyone here ever been polled, in any cycle, for any election seat? I know a good sample only needs to go to a thousand, but there have been soooo many polls by so many orgs over the years. Seems better than 50/50 I should have been polled by now at some point about some race. I’m suspicious that the same people are being polled over and over. But I don’t know.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree about the polls being wrong, and also about recycled candidates from either party. I’m still suspicious of some of the names in the race though.

 

Speaking of polls, has anyone here ever been polled, in any cycle, for any election seat? I know a good sample only needs to go to a thousand, but there have been soooo many polls by so many orgs over the years. Seems better than 50/50 I should have been polled by now at some point about some race. I’m suspicious that the same people are being polled over and over. But I don’t know.

Why would you assume that? I've been polled.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Why would you assume that? I've been polled.

That’s one of you. I haven’t talked to anyone else who ever has. Though I guess that’s just a couple people.

 

Disclosure: 20 years ago or so when I had a landline, I was pushpolled once, but not about an election or candidate.

 

Second disclosure: I have long stopped answering calls from unknown numbers.

[PseudoSABR]

I'm totally cynical of polling.  There's a whole generation of young people (like 40 and under) who won't answer their phone if they don't recognize the number, and these same people won't take online surveys unless there's some content to access.  So polling I think often is dependent upon people who are eager to share their opinion, which might be people like us, but I doubt we're representative of our demographic... 

[Mike Sixel]

And yet, good polls are usually correct. Whatever, whether you believe in them or not isn't important to me.

[PseudoSABR]

 

And yet, good polls are usually correct. Whatever, whether you believe in them or not isn't important to me.

Those good polls that predicted the Trump victory?

[Badsmerf]

Those good polls that predicted the Trump victory?

The polls weren't out of line with the results. They all have a margin of error. Trump had a much better chance than the talking heads were giving him credit for.

 

My point about the polls, is I don't think Biden polling the highest now means anything. He is, or should be, the most well known candidate. The public hasn't gotten to know many of the others. If he enters the race and is still in the lead in 6 months that is a different story. I doubt he will be. Too many skeletons. Too many years in Washington. It is obvious to me the people don't want people like him and Clinton running our country.

 

I think he should stay out of the race and help shape policy and campaign in the neglected red states.

[Mike Sixel]

Those good polls that predicted the Trump victory?

They gave him a forty percent chance of winning, give or take. Just because he did doesn't mean the odds were wrong. Unless you think every time a player gets a hit that the odds he wouldn't were wrong.....

[PseudoSABR]

 

They gave him a forty percent chance of winning, give or take. Just because he did doesn't mean the odds were wrong. Unless you think every time a player gets a hit that the odds he wouldn't were wrong.....

The NY times, and I think even 538 had Clinton winning at a 90% chance.  The polls were wrong, and I don't think they were even within the margin for error.  I'll try to find some hard evidence of this, but I probably won't get to it this morning.

[howeda7]

 

It think that stuff will be weaponized against Biden, fair or not, and he's all but toast.  All things considered I think he had one of the better chances against Trump.  Now the field is pretty open IMO.

 

What's your opposition to Bernie?  Just curious.

I think he's could be too far left to win the general. That doesn't mean he can't beat Trump, but he will have the hardest time, IMO.

 

 He will be attacked as Socialist/Communist the whole cycle. Yes, they will attack whoever the nominee is with that, but it will stick better with him. He's also too old and hasn't released his taxes which negates two of Trump's biggest issues.  I'm also not sure about his foreign policy experience, but that's true of almost everyone.

[howeda7]

 

Biden will not make out of the primary. No way. The polls are wrong. Way better options. Democrats are much better off with Pete, Harris, Klobs', Beto, Warren. I'm very much against regurgitated candidates that didn't win.

I don't know that they're "wrong" per se. But this early in the cycle it's just a name recognition contest and Biden/Bernie win that.

[howeda7]

 

I agree about the polls being wrong, and also about recycled candidates from either party. I’m still suspicious of some of the names in the race though.

Speaking of polls, has anyone here ever been polled, in any cycle, for any election seat? I know a good sample only needs to go to a thousand, but there have been soooo many polls by so many orgs over the years. Seems better than 50/50 I should have been polled by now at some point about some race. I’m suspicious that the same people are being polled over and over. But I don’t know.

Yes. For a Congressional race. I wasn't actually in the district, since the line was about 2 miles away but took the poll anyway.

[howeda7]

 

I'm totally cynical of polling.  There's a whole generation of young people (like 40 and under) who won't answer their phone if they don't recognize the number, and these same people won't take online surveys unless there's some content to access.  So polling I think often is dependent upon people who are eager to share their opinion, which might be people like us, but I doubt we're representative of our demographic... 

It's a growing issue. I saw a tweet from a pollster trying to poll MN8 last fall, and they were literally having to make 200 calls to get one response. They openly said that they had little confidence in the data. They are trying to find ways around it. All that said, the 2018 polls were fairly accurate. In MN8, that firm was the only one to poll. They had one D+1 and one R+14 4 weeks later. Ironically the average of those ended up pretty close to the result.

[howeda7]

 

The NY times, and I think even 538 had Clinton winning at a 90% chance.  The polls were wrong, and I don't think they were even within the margin for error.  I'll try to find some hard evidence of this, but I probably won't get to it this morning.

I think that's roughly correct. And yet all the states Trump unexpectedly won were within the margin of error (MI, WI, PA, FL) . It's just that the odds of him pulling them all off was remote.

[ewen21]

Bernie Sanders is exactly the cadidate Trump wants. Best the Dems move on from Bernie

[PseudoSABR]

 

Bernie Sanders is exactly the cadidate Trump wants. Best the Dems move on from Bernie

I think Sanders would have won against Trump in 2016; there's a lot more cross over appeal between those two than one would think at first blush.  Both speak with passion, and carry populist messages.  

[ashbury]

I think Sanders would have won against Trump in 2016; there's a lot more cross over appeal between those two than one would think at first blush.  Both speak with passion, and carry populist messages.  

Trump would have cast the election as a straight-up referendum on Socialism versus Capitalism, and would have won by a bigger margin than he did against Hillary. The biggest thing Trump is outstanding at is finding a weakness in a rival's armor and hammering at it. Low-Energy Jeb, Little Marco, Crooked Hillary..... Crazy Bernie and/or Socialist Bernie (Bernie Marx?) would have had little chance.

[Vanimal46]

Trump would have cast the election as a straight-up referendum on Socialism versus Capitalism, and would have won by a bigger margin than he did against Hillary. The biggest thing Trump is outstanding at is finding a weakness in a rival's armor and hammering at it. Low-Energy Jeb, Little Marco, Crooked Hillary..... Crazy Bernie and/or Socialist Bernie (Bernie Marx?) would have had little chance.

Agreed. It'll be quite disappointing for the Democrat "rebuild" if they don't call up the prospects. Bernie is old news.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Trump would have cast the election as a straight-up referendum on Socialism versus Capitalism, and would have won by a bigger margin than he did against Hillary. The biggest thing Trump is outstanding at is finding a weakness in a rival's armor and hammering at it. Low-Energy Jeb, Little Marco, Crooked Hillary..... Crazy Bernie and/or Socialist Bernie (Bernie Marx?) would have had little chance.

So you believe there were Clinton voters who would have voted for Trump because of socialism?  I think those are few.  The babyboomer fear of socialism is disconnected with how popular those policies actually are.  

 

Hillary Clinton drove no enthusiasm.  Bernie would have.  And even in 2018, the Democrats almost placed a socialist as the governor of Florida.  

[ashbury]

So you believe there were Clinton voters who would have voted for Trump because of socialism?

Some. Also some who might just stay home.

[Vanimal46]

Some. Also some who might just stay home.

Count me as one who will bow out of my vote if it's Trump vs. Bernie.

[Badsmerf]

Some. Also some who might just stay home.

I disagree. I think there were plenty of Bernie supporters that stayed home or flipped to Trump, not the other way around. Clinton has had too much time in the spotlight.

[ashbury]

I disagree. I think there were plenty of Bernie supporters that stayed home or flipped to Trump

I think so too, and I'm about as peeved at them as I am at Nader voters back in the day.

[Vanimal46]

I disagree. I think there were plenty of Bernie supporters that stayed home or flipped to Trump, not the other way around. Clinton has had too much time in the spotlight.

More likely they took their ball and went home instead of flip. Bernie's fan base is as cultish and devoted to him as Trump supporters are to their boy.

 

He's pretty much the Donald Trump of the left.

[Mike Sixel]

Count me as one who will bow out of my vote if it's Trump vs. Bernie.

You'd rather have Trump than Bernie? I mean, if that is our choice? Because you might live in a state where your vote matters, unlike me. And lots of others whose vote doesn't matter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And yet, good polls are usually correct. Whatever, whether you believe in them or not isn't important to me.

Whether polls are good or not is largely irrelevant when you’re almost a year out from the first primaries.

 

The candidates haven’t even started running yet. It’s all gamesmanship at this point.

 

At this point in 2007, everyone was all “obama lol who wutever”.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Count me as one who will bow out of my vote if it's Trump vs. Bernie.

Really, that seems incredible to me.  

[PseudoSABR]

 

He's pretty much the Donald Trump of the left.

He doesn't lie.  He isn't sexist, racist, etc.  He isn't corrupt.  He isn't owned by private interest.

 

Nearly all the candidates adopted policies he's championed in 2016. 

 

The anti-Bernie hate is dumbfounding.  That you dislike his supporters is one thing, but Bernie is certainly not Donald Trump of the left.  That's just one of the most disingenuous and glib takes I've ever heard on this board. 

[TheLeviathan]

Vanimal might be anti-Bernie, but most people are just looking at the map wondering how he changes Clinton's results.  I simply don't see how he does without a dramatic change in his voting bloc.  

 

Plus, I think Bernie looks poorly on a debate stage with Trump.  Bernie looked like the passionate, fresh candidate because it was Hillary Clinton.  When you've got two angry old white dudes on a debate stage, I'm sad to say, Trump will come off as the more personable one.  And that will work against Bernie in areas of the country that he needs to flip.