LEN3 Throws Cold Water on Hot Stove

[TheLeviathan]

 

You got that magic dust that will convice the guys to come here in the first place?

 

It's called cash.  And yes, the Twins have plenty of it.

[ewen21]

 

We need magic dust to convince a guy to sign here? A guy you've described as merely a name at this point??

I assume you're calling for firing Falvey and Levine then? Since we have such a huge image problem, one they can't overcome?

You are assuming a lot.  I just think we are in a bad situation after a nightmare season last year.  The fact that several of our young touted prospects flopped last year puts us in a tough place.

 

To sign a guy like McCutchen (who is on the decline, by the waY) we will need to do a lot to beat out the competition.  How much sense does that make in 2019?  Not to me it doesn't.

 

And do you HONESTLY think McCutchen isn't looking for something like what Cain got?  Do you seriously advocate for a contract like that right now?  Sorry.  That is foolish if you ask me with the downturn he took last year as a 31 year old outfielder who has played a ton of games.  

 

 

[ewen21]

 

It's called cash.  And yes, the Twins have plenty of it.

So whatever it takes?  Throw more cash at McCutchen than everyone else because we just HAVE TO have him?  Sound like Darvish light to me.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So whatever it takes?  Throw more cash at McCutchen than everyone else because we just HAVE TO have him?  Sound like Darvish light to me.

 

No one is saying spend 100MM per year on McCutchen, or 50, or 30.....I don't know what number, but no one is saying "whatever it takes".

 

What people are saying is that fans seem to think competing is super important, when every year we see guys, in every sport, sign with bad teams, because money. Money is the magic recruiting dust.

 

And, nearly every FA is in decline, if we never sign one in decline, we never sign one.

[ewen21]

Sorry fellas.  McCutchen is not the same player.  This started in 2016 and he just isn't the right free agent to roll the dice on right now.  You can disagree with me if you like, I am not offended.

 

I am, however, interested to know what Leviathan, Chief and Sixel think would be the contract to land him right now.  If you guys feel that strongly about it then you must have some numbers.  Give it to me so I could maybe understand.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

So whatever it takes?  Throw more cash at McCutchen than everyone else because we just HAVE TO have him?  Sound like Darvish light to me.

 

Not necessarily, but there is no magic dust required.  You want someone?  Pay them more than anyone else.  It really is that simple.

[ewen21]

 

 

 

What people are saying is that fans seem to think competing is super important, when every year we see guys, in every sport, sign with bad teams, because money. Money is the magic recruiting dust.

 

 

We also see bad teams hand out dumb contracts.   Signing McCutchen to a multiyear deal is dumb money, in my opinion.  And it will help us remain a bad team for a while.

[ewen21]

 

Not necessarily, but there is no magic dust required.  You want someone?  Pay them more than anyone else.  It really is that simple.

I believe I said that several times.

 

You tell me what will it take to get him to play here.  Years and dollars.  What does Leviathan think?  

[TheLeviathan]

 

I believe I said that several times.

 

You tell me what will it take to get him to play here.  Years and dollars.  What does Leviathan think?  

 

I don't care, he's probably not the guy I'd have targeted at the outset.  I'm just stating your argument against Chief was a poor one.

[ewen21]

 

I don't care, he's probably not the guy I'd have targeted at the outset.  I'm just stating your argument against Chief was a poor one.

My case wasn't built entirely on whatever chief quoted from me.  SO please....don't isolate on that one point.  That is just misdirection from what you won't say.  You have no idea about the terms necessary to land McCutchen. This is a case of..."I wanna see the Twins spend money!"

 

So do I.  I just want it to be smart.

Chief said McCutchen is a great fit (not saying he might not be in 2019), but he has to accept a few things:

1.   He had a sharp decline two years ago and really hasn't bounced back a whole lot

2.  There are more than likely a team or two who are willing to overpay and take a risk

3.  We need to outbit those teams.

 

I don't want to hear about McCutchen.  THere isn't a snowball's chance in hell we get him and there is not even good reason to get him in my opinion.  Something is very different about him right now and it isn't just the hair. 

 

 

[ewen21]

REALITY:  McCutchen played in Pittsburgh his whole career.  He was on a team just like this one and his perception of the Twins is likely similar to what his experience was in Pittsburgh.  He is either going to look for max money in a big market or try to latch onto a club that is a contender NOW.  He is not going to be looking to join a team like ours.

 

Don't you think it infuriates me that he would sign with a team like Milwaukee?  These are lean times and this isn't the kind of deal that helps.  It might make fans happy to see the Twins spend, but I couldn't care less about that if the deal doesn't make a lot of sense.  This one doesn't make sense.  I would like a guy who can help in 2020 and 2021 also.  I don't want an outfielder in his mid 30s 

[USAFChief]

Sorry fellas. McCutchen is not the same player. This started in 2016 and he just isn't the right free agent to roll the dice on right now. You can disagree with me if you like, I am not offended.

 

I am, however, interested to know what Leviathan, Chief and Sixel think would be the contract to land him right now. If you guys feel that strongly about it then you must have some numbers. Give it to me so I could maybe understand.

I predict McCutchen gets in the neighborhood of 3/35.

 

That kind of money wouldn't hurt the Twins at all. And McCutchen will be worth 400-500 ABs for all 3 yrs. He will only be 32 next season. He would be a great fit to mix in with Rosario and Kepler.

[ewen21]

 

I predict McCutchen gets in the neighborhood of 3/35.

That kind of money wouldn't hurt the Twins at all. And McCutchen will be worth 400-500 ABs for all 3 yrs. He will only be 32 next season. He would be a great fit to mix in with Rosario and Kepler.

I am betting against that.  I think that he is set to take a nosedive either in 2019 or 2020.  I have some family from the Pittsburgh area and I have a mild interest in the Pirates.  He has had a WAR the following WAR totals the last three years:

2016: -0.5

2017: 2.4

2018: 2.8

This doesn't register with you?  I can get that from anywhere and I don't need to throw 12 million dollars away for it.  This is why I say he is a name at this point.  Sorry.  Not into this at all.

 

Thanks for your input on this, but for me, this is the wrong time and the wrong guy--whether or not he is (theoretically) a good fit.  This is based that he can continue producing at levels you believe he will.  Doesn't  mean you're right, doesn't mean I am right

[Mike Sixel]

 

We also see bad teams hand out dumb contracts.   Signing McCutchen to a multiyear deal is dumb money, in my opinion.  And it will help us remain a bad team for a while.

 

That may be true, I don't know how he's going to age. But, this team could have used an OF that could DH or let Kepler sub at first occasionally. He might be that guy, he might not. But, imo, you can't shy away from everyone that might get hurt, or might be in decline. At that point, you are just always betting on your AAA or AA players coming in and succeeding right away.

[beckmt]

I am willing to gamble one of our 6 - 7 starter prospects (or two) will come through this year to be a serviceable #5 starter (and hopefully better).  I am not willing to gamble that we can fill the bullpen from within or not add another position player or two, who can make this team better.  Twins have the big chance to move forward this year and are not taking it.

I tend to agree with the poster who felt the new FO does not care for the TR regime players and are selling them short.  Maybe we bring out the pitchforks sooner rather than later.  Schoop, I can understand, low OBP, but power and good defense, do not sell that short.  Did not understand Cron, unless the FO feels Austin is not the answer.  Could understand making some trades to upgrade this club, do not understand why the FO is not working harder on it.

[amjgt]

Cold Water + Hot Stove = STEAM!

[amjgt]

McCutchen is only 32?

 

Man. In my head he was like 37.

[Tomj14]

 

No one is saying spend 100MM per year on McCutchen, or 50, or 30.....I don't know what number, but no one is saying "whatever it takes".

 

What people are saying is that fans seem to think competing is super important, when every year we see guys, in every sport, sign with bad teams, because money. Money is the magic recruiting dust.

 

And, nearly every FA is in decline, if we never sign one in decline, we never sign one.

Manny and Harper aren't and it the Twins seem to have no interest in that either.

Like I have said before the Twins always will be in rebuild mode hoping for one year to catch lightening in a bottle.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

 

I don't want to hear about McCutchen.  THere isn't a snowball's chance in hell we get him and there is not even good reason to get him in my opinion.  Something is very different about him right now and it isn't just the hair. 

 

Too often the phrase "it'll take magic pixie dust for us to sign them" and "there's a snowball's chance in hell" are married together as a preposterous, defeatist attitude.  And usually it migrates into the "The Twins will never sign a FA because X, Y, Z"

 

All of that nonsense ignores the bigger problem:  The Twins won't spend.  Not that they can't, they won't.  So I'm adamant about calling out arguments like your pixie dust one precisely because it gives bogus cover to the ownership/organization.

[scottz]

So much for McCutchen.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/phillies-to-sign-andrew-mccutchen.html

[ashbury]

So much for McCutchen.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/phillies-to-sign-andrew-mccutchen.html

Falvey and Levine breathe a collective sigh of relief. The pressure to do something big has to wear on them.

[nicksaviking]

 

So much for McCutchen.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/phillies-to-sign-andrew-mccutchen.html

 

That turn of phrase could be taken a couple of different ways.

[S.]

 

2017: 2.4

2018: 2.8

This doesn't register with you?  I can get that from anywhere and I don't need to throw 12 million dollars away for it.  This is why I say he is a name at this point.  Sorry.  Not into this at all.

You can get that from anywhere, huh? Then how come in 2018 only 3 players on the Twins had over 2.8 WAR and only 1 was a position player (Rosario, Berrios, Gibson)? And in 2017 only 6 Twins players had 2.4 or higher (Dozier, Buxton, Santana, Berrios, Rosario, Sano)

[USAFChief]

That's more than I though he'd get. Good for him. Good for the Phillies. 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

You can get that from anywhere, huh? Then how come in 2018 only 3 players on the Twins had over 2.8 WAR and only 1 was a position player (Rosario, Berrios, Gibson)? And in 2017 only 6 Twins players had 2.4 or higher (Dozier, Buxton, Santana, Berrios, Rosario, Sano)

 

What percentage of time do you think the 5 year type free agents break 2 WAR? By percentage, I mean if 4 players sign 5 year deals this year, how many season out of their combined 20 seasons will exceed 2 WAR? Does anyone know the answer? Is there an article somewhere?

[S.]

 

What percentage of time do you think the 5 year type free agents break 2 WAR? By percentage, I mean if 4 players sign 5 year deals this year, how many season out of their combined 20 seasons will exceed 2 WAR? Does anyone know the answer? Is there an article somewhere?

I don't have the slightest clue. Possibly someone that is good with bbref filters or something might be able to get those stats, but that is outside my area of expertise.

 

Honestly though, I'm pretty indifferent to McCutcheon (and wouldn't have wanted to give him 3/50) so I don't really have a dog in that fight, more just wanted to dispute the notion that you can get 2.4 or 2.8 WAR anywhere, or that 2.4 WAR players wouldn't be an upgrade over the vast majority of the players on our roster

[tvagle]

Phils keep spending on not Machado makes it all the more Christmas like for the Twins

 

"So you're saying there's a chance"

 

An all expense paid Prospect Handbook to the first person to get the easter-egg in this post

[ewen21]

 

That's more than I though he'd get. Good for him. Good for the Phillies. 

He wasn't settling for less much less than that and he wanted to play for a contender.

[Major League Ready]

 

I don't have the slightest clue. Possibly someone that is good with bbref filters or something might be able to get those stats, but that is outside my area of expertise.

 

Honestly though, I'm pretty indifferent to McCutcheon (and wouldn't have wanted to give him 3/50) so I don't really have a dog in that fight, more just wanted to dispute the notion that you can get 2.4 or 2.8 WAR anywhere, or that 2.4 WAR players wouldn't be an upgrade over the vast majority of the players on our roster

 

I guess we can just look at WAR for all players on Fangraphs.to get a general sense of the relative scarcity of (let's say) 2 WAR players. There were 130 position players and 78 pitchers with a WAR of 2.0 or greater In 2018. In 2017, there were 134 position players and 80 pitchers.  Of course, a lot of players don't accumulate WAR because of losing a partial season to injury. I will leave it to everyone's own opinion as to just how scare is a 2 WAR player.

 

I am going to look into the average WAR for FAs that sign 5+ year contracts. I did that on a previous thread for 2016-18 and you would have to conclude FA is a bad model for building a winner. I am going to look back at 2014, 13, and 12 so that the entire term will have run on most of the contracts. It will be interesting to see how often the free agents that are so often positioned here actually deliver.

[ewen21]

 

I don't have the slightest clue. Possibly someone that is good with bbref filters or something might be able to get those stats, but that is outside my area of expertise.

 

Honestly though, I'm pretty indifferent to McCutcheon (and wouldn't have wanted to give him 3/50) so I don't really have a dog in that fight, more just wanted to dispute the notion that you can get 2.4 or 2.8 WAR anywhere, or that 2.4 WAR players wouldn't be an upgrade over the vast majority of the players on our roster

The average of his WAR over the last three years is actually under 2.0 beause he had such a horrendous 2016 and you cannot brush aside a horrible year for a guy 32 years old.  Frame it how you want, but it took Philly 3 years at 17 a year with an option.  For the Twins to land him we'd have needed to beat that.

 

Grouse all you want about us not signing him, but I think we were wise not to puruse him.