Election 2018

[LaBombo]

 

Walking in downtown Phoenix this morning, I overheard a conversation between two women, one of whom said her vote-by-mail ballot never arrived. I was forward enough to say that she was the second such person I had heard such a thing about in the past 24 hours, and asked which party registration if she didn't mind saying. Democratic, same as the other person I heard. Some coincidence.

 

Feel free to not speculate if you're not comfortable with it, but could they have possibly been winter-only "snowbirds" who were expecting absentee ballots from their 'up north' state of official residence?

 

That wouldn't make it acceptable, but if they were from differing northern states it would make it less likely a matter of selective vote suppression than some other, more benign explanation.

[PseudoSABR]

[TheLeviathan]

 

I refuse to expect any good news until I'm punched in the face with it.

 

Someone should link that SNL video about that.  It's too perfect.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yep, complete Dem ballot for me this year. First time since 2008.

 

Same.  Felt strange....but the only sane option.

 

Let's hope turnout is high today.  When I voted it was heavy on independents, which is a good sign I think.  At the end of the day your comment up thread is what matters: if it's a usual turnout, Republicans win tonight.  If there's a surge?  That'll be good news.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Feel free to not speculate if you're not comfortable with it, but could they have possibly been winter-only "snowbirds" who were expecting absentee ballots from their 'up north' state of official residence?

 

That wouldn't make it acceptable, but if they were from differing northern states it would make it less likely a matter of selective vote suppression than some other, more benign explanation.

 

I voted in a Phoenx suburb today and two republicans and an independent had the same thing happen.  

 

Might just be that Arizona is incompetent at being a thing.  (Hint: It is)

[ashbury]

If you hear such a thing again, suggest they go to their polling place, if they can, and ask for a provisional ballot.

As a male interrupting the conversation of two women I didn't know, I was already on thin ice regarding social mores, and they were turning into an office building just as I asked so the time window was very brief. They were nice enough but it would have been pushing my luck even if I had thought of it, to go on by offering unsolicited advice.

 

Most people requesting mail-in ballots probably are doing so because going to the polling place won't be practical on election day. That's the beauty part, if actual chicanery is involved.

 

Feel free to not speculate if you're not comfortable with it, but could they have possibly been winter-only "snowbirds" who were expecting absentee ballots from their 'up north' state of official residence?

 

That wouldn't make it acceptable, but if they were from differing northern states it would make it less likely a matter of selective vote suppression than some other, more benign explanation.

Of course. In the case of the two women, I have no idea, and you are right that no one ought to take this anecdote for anything more than it is.

 

The other instance is known to be an Arizona resident, away from the vicinity of the polling place for the day.

 

I have no standing, but I think someone in Arizona should try to see if there are numerous others with this tale of woe, and attempt some sort of class-action if there are enough. But if this was chicanery I would expect the perpetrators to be prepared with plenty of smoke to obscure the situation.

[Craig Arko]

I almost voted for the ‘legalize marijuana now’ candidate, but went DFL instead.

[ashbury]

I voted in a Phoenx suburb today and two republicans and an independent had the same thing happen.  

 

Might just be that Arizona is incompetent at being a thing.  (Hint: It is)

I didn't see your comment until after I posted my response, and I'm reassured, I guess.

 

 

_{^{Unless.... unless... the people you met are part of the CONSPIRACY!}}

[PseudoSABR]

I have a number of friends who were told they were sent ballots they didn't get and had to vote provisionally.  One of them researched what was going on, and learned that his voter registration was connected to an old address, even though he believed he updated everything at the DMV recently.  There may be a problem with the DMV communicating to the Secretary of State and county recorders on updated addresses and such.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I almost voted for the ‘legalize marijuana now’ candidate, but went DFL instead.

 

too bad we don't have ranked voting anywhere!

[D. Hocking]

My polling place is never particularly busy, but this morning might have been the most people I have seen there, and I have been in the neighborhood for three presidential elections.

 

Remember I'm in Iowa . This was the only Republican that had opposition I voted for. Iowa has had some real ugly legislation lately. My wife also voted for our Senate candidate, but she was turned off big time by the Democrat candidate. Can't say I blame her, but the laws our incumbent voted for or introduced were absolutely appalling.

 

I don't suppose it is too much to hope you were in Steve King's district and could vote against him.   He might be in the top 5 of people I want to go down.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Predictions? I don't think voter turnout is predictive, but that's just me. If Huffpost is predicting a "blue wave" then I will predict the opposite

 

I wouldn't mind see some mixed results tonight nationally but I don't want the Minnesota government to get in the hands of the Trump types or us to turn into Wisconsin. Here shortly I will be going to my usual poll place at my usual poll time. Even in presidential years that usually means walking right up to a booth, or a two minute waits, tops. But as the above poster said and I have heard elsewhere, wait times are a little longer this year.

[LaBombo]

We're supposed to believe it's a complete coincidence that it was on Election day, and was to take place near a polling station in a densely minority neighborhood?

 

I mean, you can believe that if you want to, but I don't.

 

And like I said, I wouldn't expect you to.

 

But as gripping of a story as it made to portray the border patrol as mounted storm troopers riding through a densely populated Hispanic neighborhood with nets stretched between them, threatening to snatch up hapless would-be voters a la Planet of the Apes, it doesn't pass the smell test.

 

First off, it takes only about 30 seconds' worth of search engine-ing and Mapquesting to see that the planned site of the cancelled event was in a virtually deserted area next to a rail yard and some non-retail commercial properties, not a bustling residential neighborhood:

 

 

 

Worse, the reports that the exercise was to be deliberately set up between the Chihuahuita neighborhood and its polling place were just flat out wrong, since the nearest polling station sits within the neighborhood at its east end, while the exercise was to take place to the west and outside of it.

 

It wouldn't even occur to me to ask anyone to believe Trump morally incapable of ordering voter suppression. But it seems hard to believe that his administration is capable of it on a logistical level, at least on such a granular level of choosing individual units, times, and places for shows of force designed to intimidate voters. And if that were the case, why only one in the entire nation? Same for an Abbott conspiracy; why order only one?

 

That leaves the Rogue Trump Supporter theory... that a lone wolf Border Patrol commander took it on himself to scare a Hispanic neighborhood into not voting. But why would he or she risk an entire career by ordering an 'intimidation' exercise at a time of day where most people are at work, and in a place where very few people would even see it, let alone be intimidated by it? And why would they then back down at the first sign of trouble, despite knowing that they would probably still have to face the wrath of the chain of command?

 

Voter suppression exists, it's wrong, and it needs to end, but that's probably not what this was. And if it was, it was fortunately a remarkably crude and ineffectual effort.

[Vanimal46]

[Mr. Brooks]

I almost voted for the ‘legalize marijuana now’ candidate, but went DFL instead.

They got my vote for Attorney General.

I found the domestic abuse allegations against Ellison credible enough that I couldn't in good conscience vote for him.

[Mr. Brooks]

McGrath with a slight lead in Kentucky (18% reporting).

The rest of the swing races all leading red at the moment.

[Mr. Brooks]

McGrath lead widening with every update, that's a good sign I guess.

[Mr. Brooks]

On the Senate side, Braun is crushing Donnelly in Indiana. Only 10% reporting, but it's Braun +20, yikes.

[PseudoSABR]

In Florida, Nelson and Gillum with substantial leads with nearly four million votes counted.

[Badsmerf]

My polling place is never particularly busy, but this morning might have been the most people I have seen there, and I have been in the neighborhood for three presidential elections.

 

 

I don't suppose it is too much to hope you were in Steve King's district and could vote against him. He might be in the top 5 of people I want to go down.

I am, and I did vote against him. So did a lot of people. I wouldn't be surprised to see him lose.

[Mr. Brooks]

538 real time odds:

Dems up to 94.1% to control house, down to 14.6% to control senate.

Those senate odds are down from 15% pre election, but are up from 12.6% 15 minutes ago.

[Mr. Brooks]

The first competitive race to be called has gone the Republicans. Florida's 6th district, Waltz over Soderberg.

[Mr. Brooks]

Senate odds down to 11.9%, low point of the night, so far.

[Mr. Brooks]

Ugh, make that 9.3%.

House odds falling too, though still a comfortable 81.1%.

[Mike Sixel]

They aren't winning the Senate, even with the least or 2nd least popular POTUS in history......they might lose ground in midterms, with an unpopular president......

[Mr. Brooks]

Florida 25th now called red as well.

2-0 GOP in winnable races.

[Mr. Brooks]

They aren't winning the Senate, even with the least or 2nd least popular POTUS in history......they might lose ground in midterms, with an unpopular president......

Yep, Senate odds now below 4%.

House odds plummeting by the second, down to 75% now.

Things aren't looking good at the moment.

[Mr. Brooks]

2.6% and 67.6%, wow.

[Mr. Brooks]

0% Senate, and now 2:1 underdogs to control the house.

[Mr. Brooks]

4-0 gop in competitive races now.