Yusei Kikuchi Posted by Seibu Lions

[Tom Froemming]

As expected, the Seibu Lions have posted left-handed starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. I wondered aloud on Twitter if the Twins would have interest in the 27-year-old, and Darren Wolfson of KSTP was kind enough to confirm that the team has scouted him pretty extensively.

 

Obviously that doesn't necessarily mean the Twins are serious suitors for Kikuchi, but it sounds like he's certainly on their radar. Yes, the international market can be a crap shoot, but to be fair you could say the same about free agency in general. MLB Trade Rumors had Kikcuhi as their No. 12 free agent available while FanGraphs has him at No. 14.

[Mike Sixel]

He is only 27.....which I think is a plus. And, he probably has less pitches on his arm, since they generally pitch weekly in the NPB.  I'd certainly roll the dice on him.

[Tom Froemming]

The plot thickens! Check out this MLB Trade Rumors post from back in 2009.

 

Kikuchi nearly came straight to the US after high school. Things were serious enough that he actually met with eight MLB teams at the time. Among them were the Texas Rangers, where Thad Levine was assistant GM, and Cleveland, where Derek Falvey was part of their international scouting department. 

 

Again, none of that means the Twins are going to make a run at signing Kikuchi, but it's certainly interesting.

[nicksaviking]

I'd be game for this. I'm going to hedge my optimism until we see these big named international free agents willingly come to the mid-market Midwest teams though. It's not terribly fair but so far it seems like destination trumps all else for these players. 

 

Though the Twins did snag Park and Nishioka, so maybe it's not a lost cause. And no, I do not list those two sarcastically. Neither should be representative of other foreign players and neither should cause hesitation to dip back into the market again assuming due diligence is done.

[The Wise One]

I may be wrong but if the posting fee is refundable there is no reason not to recruit  him.

[PseudoSABR]

Certainly worth exploring, but the Twins have had bad luck in retaining players from Asia. I believe there was turn-over in the scouting department in the last year, so the fact the Twins recruited him in the past may not have much bearing today, with the new regime. For my part, if they like him, this is the kind of high-risk, high-reward the Twins need to make if they ever hope to be competitive. 

[Doomtints]

He will be pricey, he's managed by Boras. He will be sore, he's working through a shoulder injury.

 

If he ends up with the Twins, it probably means other teams passed on him.

 

Reports say he is deceptive and can hurl it fast. If the Twins get him, just make him the closer.

[Doomtints]

 

this is the kind of high-risk, high-reward the Twins need to make if they ever hope to be competitive. 

 

Everything I see projects him to be a #3 starter. If accurate, this would be a pointless risk. A proven #3 would cost a similar price or less.

[Mr. Brooks]

Everything I see projects him to be a #3 starter. If accurate, this would be a pointless risk. A proven #3 would cost a similar price or less.

From the link in the OP:

 

"according to a report by MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi earlier this year, multiple MLB scouts believe he could profile as high as a No. 2 starter in the big leagues."

 

And, even if he is only a #3 starter, how often do 27 year old #3 starters hit the market?

[Doomtints]

Good points, but I'm responding directly to the "high risk / high reward" comment. He projects to be average to average+.

[Mike Sixel]

Number 3 starters aren't "average".....that's way above average. There aren't even 70 good SPs in the majors........assuming by number 3 you mean a guy you can count on to go 6+ innings most starts, with an ERA under 4.5.....there just aren't that many on the planet.

 

This guy is the definition of high risk, high reward.

[Major League Ready]

Extend Gibson and sign this guy and the next 4 years looks pretty decent for SP. Of course, this assumes he is a strong 3 or even a 2. Use stackers for for the final 2 spots until someone or 2 guys graduate to a regular starting role. Hopefully Graterol blazes through the minors in route to being the Ace we have been looking for since Johan left or Romero gets it together or both.

[Thrylos]

My lithmus test for adding rotation pieces this off-season:

 

Will Kikuchi make the Twins' rotation competitive in a short series with Cleveland, Astros, and Boston?  Where would he be in those rotations? (Answer:  number 3 at best,) so I'd pass.  

This team needs likely 2 pitchers better than Berrios to be competitive in the post-season.  I'd rather sign Partick Corbin for number 2 and go after Zack Wheeler with multiple prospects for the top of the rotation spot.

[Doomtints]

 

Number 3 starters aren't "average".....that's way above average. There aren't even 70 good SPs in the majors........assuming by number 3 you mean a guy you can count on to go 6+ innings most starts, with an ERA under 4.5.....there just aren't that many on the planet.

 

This guy is the definition of high risk, high reward.

 

#3 pitchers are in actuality the 100 ERA+ guys. That's average.

[Mike Sixel]

 

#3 pitchers are in actuality the 100 ERA+ guys. That's average.

 

then we have a different definition for sure.....way different.

 

also.....there are this many 100- ERA STARTERS.....that pitched 150 innings:

 

28

 

Now, maybe for some people....I don't know. But if I could have one of the 28 best pitchers in baseball......that's better than a number 3......or not, but it is still VERY valuable.

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

#3 pitchers are in actuality the 100 ERA+ guys. That's average.

mean or median?

 

Mean weighted by innings pitched might get you three, more likely four. In the “plus” metrics where you lineup your players in order, Median seems like a better average. That might be 5 or 6 being that the mode number of starting pitchers used per team is usually 10 or 11 (prior to openers) and mean is usually 11+

[snepp]

In actual actuality, 100 ERA+ starters are slightly above average, relative to other starters, as the ERA+ figure includes relievers numbers.

[USAFChief]

In actual actuality, 100 ERA+ starters are slightly above average, relative to other starters, as the ERA+ figure includes relievers numbers.

In my hometown, all the starters are above average.

[Doomtints]

 

then we have a different definition for sure.....way different.

 

also.....there are this many 100- ERA STARTERS.....that pitched 150 innings:

 

28

 

Now, maybe for some people....I don't know. But if I could have one of the 28 best pitchers in baseball......that's better than a number 3......or not, but it is still VERY valuable.

 

#5s typically don't pitch full seasons, nor do many #4s.

[Doomtints]

 

mean or median?

Mean weighted by innings pitched might get you three, more likely four. In the “plus” metrics where you lineup your players in order, Median seems like a better average. That might be 5 or 6 being that the mode number of starting pitchers used per team is usually 10 or 11 (prior to openers) and mean is usually 11+

 

I'm just using Bill James's definition, which I think is pertinent to do as he was the first to write about it.

 

I get it that others have different views, only seeing the #4 / #5 guys as "average" or worse. But the fact of the matter is, #1s and #2s are above average and that's it.

[Doomtints]

 

In actual actuality, 100 ERA+ starters are slightly above average, relative to other starters, as the ERA+ figure includes relievers numbers.

 

Nah. Good relievers can end up with 200+ ERA+s. They can be off the charts.

[Mike Sixel]

 

#5s typically don't pitch full seasons, nor do many #4s.

 

exactly.....there are twice as many 4s and 5s as 1-3s......

[USAFChief]

Nah. Good relievers can end up with 200+ ERA+s. They can be off the charts.

I believe that was Snepp’s point.

[MN_ExPat]

Ok, personally I say the Twins sign the guy and then just go play some baseball.   Only the Man Upstairs know what will happen, I just love baseball and am ready for the season to start.

 

But that's just me... and I seem to remember my folks saying something about paint chips and a van down by the river???

[ashbury]

Only the Man Upstairs know what will happen

 

Your faith in Dave St Peter is touching but misplaced.