Article: Twins Manager Paul Molitor Fired

[TheLeviathan]

I think the manager add almost nothing mantra is debatable. Not as true as in the 20th Century. Proper implementation of baseball analytics, both via successful roster deployment and in-game strategies has helped many a shrewd manager gain an edge on the talent-laden "favorites".

It is debatable, unfortunately any attempts to quantify become loaded with assumptions. I think Passan had an article recently where a manager was quoted as saying they basically did nothing, but this is an opinion I have that doesn’t have data. Just a hunch with a lot of plausible speculation.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I thought that was what the minor leagues were for? Mollies job was to win games

 

Well, our minor leagues hasn't really produced anyone since the M&M boys. Obviously there were a few, but very few difference makers.That's IMO, the largest problem with this team. Kids perform in the minors, then come up here and do very little. Maybe the leagues they play are not good? I don't know, just seems like minor league numbers haven't translated around here for quite a few years now. 

 

Edited October 4, 2018 by Battle ur tail off

[Mr. Brooks]

I thought that was what the minor leagues were for? Mollies job was to win games

Nobody comes up as a finished product.

Development has to continue at the mlb level.

[jorgenswest]

I disagree. Managers add almost nothing. Will it be hard to replace him? No. But that’s true for pretty much anyone with that title IMO. Especially in today’s game.

Talent is king, whoever the new guy is better hope he is afforded a lot more of it.

I will have to think about it. You may be right.

 

I would hope a manager with superior relational skills would help get the best out of players and also right the ship quicker when things go bad.

 

I wonder if a manager is a consideration at all in signing a contract either as a free agent or to remain with the team. Maybe not. Money is king here.

 

Machines do a lot now but I do wonder if managing playing time, bullpen, batting order, match ups and the like still has an important human element.

 

I guess I am relectant to agree that managers add almost nothing because then I have wasted a good amount of time being a critic of their decisions. If managers add almost nothing then that doesn’t leave much to criticize.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 If managers add almost nothing then that doesn’t leave much to criticize.

 

Well we can't have that!  But I'd vote we could start ripping the equipment managers....they've been getting off easy for far too long anyway.

[Linus]

Nobody comes up as a finished product.

Development has to continue at the mlb level.

Of course but basic fundamentals are what he was criticized for. I think there are plenty of problems within the organization and it’s a little too convenient to blame it all on Molitor

[Brock Beauchamp]

It is debatable, unfortunately any attempts to quantify become loaded with assumptions. I think Passan had an article recently where a manager was quoted as saying they basically did nothing, but this is an opinion I have that doesn’t have data. Just a hunch with a lot of plausible speculation.

I think it’s more nuanced than “nothing”. I also think it’s so minute and unquantifiable that it’s uselsss to argue about it.

 

I don’t think it’s coincidence that Showalter always overperforms for a couple of years... and then unpeforms for a couple of years before getting the axe. Or that Gardenhire had a solid run of overperformance before collapsing. Or that Molitor has been up and down, as weird as that sounds to say.

 

Or that Maddon is almost *always* good.

 

How can we quantify that as outsiders? Um... yeah. We can’t.

 

So we should evaluate the themes, ideas, and styles of managers... and STFU about the rest because we’re talking out of our asses.

[TheLeviathan]

The problem is the lense. We always view through a narrow one because extrapolating manager trends is a far more difficult thing to do. It's hard to divorce talent from decision making. Hard to know what is driving things behind the scenes.

 

My opinion is the Gardy/Showalter pops have more to do with personality change. Like how an office picks up the slack cuz new management has arrived and you want to make a good first impression.

[jorgenswest]

One way to try to measure the value of a manager has been to look at runs scored and try to see if they more more than an expected number of wins. Can a manager win more than their share of close games? I don’t think this measures has shown a significant impact.

 

It is very difficult to measure how many extra runs a coaching staff added or prevented due to the preparation of the players and the relationships they build towards getting the most out of a player. How would that be measured? The Twins front office needs to find that manager who is better than almost anyone else at preparing and getting the most out a player’s ability.

[DocBauer]

I guess I feel the job of a manager, and his coaches, is tough to quantify. I think they and their staff CAN help influence/teach a young player. I think they CAN create a lineup that works well together and balanced out. I think they CAN stress fundamentals and make sure the team plays better and doesn't beat themselves. And I think they CAN have a feel on the use and pulling of pitchers.

 

How much of an influence is what's so hard to measure. I actually think they have a stronger influence over LOSING games rather than winning them...if that makes sense.

[yarnivek1972]

One way to try to measure the value of a manager has been to look at runs scored and try to see if they more more than an expected number of wins. Can a manager win more than their share of close games? I don’t think this measures has shown a significant impact.

 

It is very difficult to measure how many extra runs a coaching staff added or prevented due to the preparation of the players and the relationships they build towards getting the most out of a player. How would that be measured? The Twins front office needs to find that manager who is better than almost anyone else at preparing and getting the most out a player’s ability.

I’d be curious to know how TK did in that regard. His teams always seemed to overacheive. Possible exceptions being 1992 and 1997.

 

I may have to look it up.

Edited October 6, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[yarnivek1972]

I looked up TKs pythag wins vs actual per baseball ref.

 

1987: 85 actual, 79 pythag

1988: 91, 90

1989: 80, 81

1990: 74, 74

1991: 95, 94

1992: 90, 91

1993: 71, 68

1994: 53, 49

1995: 56, 57

1996: 78, 79

1997: 68, 73

1998: 70, 73

1999: 63, 65

2000: 69, 69

2001: 85, 81

 

Gardy’s tenure

 

2002: 94, 86

2003: 90, 85

2004: 92, 87

2005: 83, 84

2006: 96, 93

2007: 79, 80

2008: 88, 89

2009: 87, 86

2010: 94, 92

2011: 63, 62

2012: 66, 68

2013: 66, 63

2014: 70, 75

 

Molitor’s tenure

 

2015: 83, 81

2016: 59, 66

2017: 85, 83

2018: 78, 77

 

 

If my math is correct, TK was + 5. Gardy was + 19.

 

Not sure if that proves anything. Tom Kelly won 16 playoff games that few expected him to.

Edited October 6, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[The_Phantom]

 

I looked up TKs pythag wins vs actual per baseball ref.

1987: 85 actual, 79 pythag
1988: 91, 90
1989: 80, 81
1990: 74, 74
1991: 95, 94
1992: 90, 91
1993: 71, 68
1994: 53, 49
1995: 56, 57
1996: 78, 79
1997: 68, 73
1998: 70, 73
1999: 63, 65
2000: 69, 69
2001: 85, 81

Gardy’s tenure

2002: 94, 86
2003: 90, 85
2004: 92, 87
2005: 83, 84
2006: 96, 93
2007: 79, 80
2008: 88, 89
2009: 87, 86
2010: 94, 92
2011: 63, 62
2012: 66, 68
2013: 66, 63
2014: 70, 75

Molitor’s tenure

2015: 83, 81
2016: 59, 66
2017: 85, 83
2018: 78, 77


If my math is correct, TK was + 5. Gardy was + 19.

Not sure if that proves anything. Tom Kelly won 16 playoff games that few expected him to.

 

 

Hey good work on that research. I don't think those numbers are terribly important though. Straight up "record in close games" is probably a better tool, but really even that is not perfect. When you massively overtax your bullpen and always take your starter out at 100 pitches no matter what, even when the pen is taxed... and so your pen gives up 6 runs. That ruins "close games" AND it affects the pyth. W/L calculation.

 

Pyth is pretty much just if you are scoring more runs than your opponent overall. 

 

It's an interesting thought. Because a W/L better than your Pyth could very well mean that you are winning all your close games and only losing when you get blown out. But that's one of those things that in practice probably just isn't as clean cut as that.  

[The_Phantom]

Hawk Harrelson is saying Molitor is a great baseball guy so Levine and Falvey are idiots for firing him. And "if they were so smart they'd be on wall street".

 

As far as I'm concerned, if there was any doubt whether that was the right move (there wasn't any) Harrelson getting up in arms about it is the final seal of approval that it was right. That guy's baseball knowledge is a vortex of nothingness. 

[Doomtints]

 

Hawk Harrelson is saying Molitor is a great baseball guy so Levine and Falvey are idiots for firing him. And "if they were so smart they'd be on wall street".

 

Why? There is more profit in baseball.

Edited October 7, 2018 by Doomtints