Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Romero's Innings

[D.C Twins]

Not all people/arms are the same

 

Not all innings are the same

 

Not all pitchers have the same mix of pitches

 

Not all pitches stress the arm the same 

 

Ergo, innings limitations are ridiculous. 

 

Pitchers need to be followed closely for the earliest signs of fatigue (drop in velocity, change in mechanics, even small amounts of pain in the pitching elbow/shoulder, loss of control) and shut down quickly at the earliest warning signs. 

 

"sabermetrics" will catch up to this in the near future and there will be intricate algorithms to dictate these decisions .

[Doctor Wu]

We keep talking about "when Santana comes back" but do we even know that will actually happen before the season is over? I mean, it's mid-June already and there ain't much time left! If Santana's rehab resumes again, what's the new timeline for his return?

[Dantes929]

 

No innings limit, instead we are in such a stat dominated period that we should see when spin rate and velocity take a dive and then we give him a rest.  Use the tools not some artificial limit.  Is there a difference between 155 and 156 innings?  

I would hope the coaches and the pitchers themselves are also in tune with the effort it takes to achieve those stats.     Effort instead of mechanics should be monitored by observation.   When guys start getting tired smoothness leaves and is replaced by effort.   

[diehardtwinsfan]

Considering that Romero had issues last year, I'd say it's safe to say that even if the Verducci effect is garbage, Romero certainly has issues with fatigue that need to be planned for. Once it's there, he's going to need a DL and it's quite possible the pen won't fix it.

 

I guess my position is why not just go to a 6 man rotation at some point when Erv, May, or Gonsaves are ready. That would effectively put him on a limit without forcing the pen to consistently cover 4 innings. It might mean not carrying 20 relievers on the roster though.

[yarnivek1972]

How does a 6 man rotation change the number of relievers the team needs?

 

The Twins are carrying 8 now. If they carry 6 starters too that leaves 2 bench players. A catcher and ??

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

AFAIK there is no reliable data indicating some specific increase in innings year to year leads to injury. “The Verducci Effect” is sloppy science at best. There is no reason to set an innings limit today. If at some point he is fatigued, rest him. Let Romero, the pitching coach, and the medical staff determine that, if/when necessary.

Pitchers are at risk for injury. All of them, every time they pitch. Pitch them when they’re healthy. They’re of no use if they can’t pitch, and resting him in 2018 does little or nothing to help 2019, IMO.

I mostly agree with this but I'd still try to work in some breaks around the ASG out of caution.

 

Because if his arm fatigues in September and the Twins have climbed back into this thing, it will really hurt to remove Romero from the stretch run and possibly the postseason.

 

Two or three games skipped in July and August could be important insurance for September and October.

 

You don't even have to skip that many starts, in all likelihood. If you use creative off-day management and the ASG, you can probably push out his starts to 7-9 days a couple of times, effectively skipping one start.

[Mike Sixel]

I mostly agree with this but I'd still try to work in some breaks around the ASG out of caution.

 

Because if his arm fatigues in September and the Twins have climbed back into this thing, it will really hurt to remove Romero from the stretch run and possibly the postseason.

 

Two or three games skipped in July and August could be important insurance for September and October.

 

You don't even have to skip that many starts, in all likelihood. If you use creative off-day management and the ASG, you can probably push out his starts to 7-9 days a couple of times, effectively skipping one start.

Aren't they more likely to be in it, if he pitches in July? If not, does it matter they saved him?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Aren't they more likely to be in it, if he pitches in July? If not, does it matter they saved him?

Sure, but that’s a gamble you’re going to take either way and I’d like to protect any postseason performance more than a couple of mid season starts.

[jmlease1]

I think it's reasonable to consider a limit, based on innings, pitches, etc. And I think the Twins management will be thoughtful about it.

 

I wonder if it would be better to space things out so that he's pitching late in the year, though, to get him used to the length of the MLB season, even while he's building up to the innings? Is there value in giving him a little extra rest in July/August (skipping his turn in the rotation while still having him do his regular work) and having him actually pitching later in the year just to try and acclimate him to the length of the season while trying to not overstress the arm.

 

I doubt there's any good data on this yet, and you know what they say: it's better to read the case study than be the case study...

[markos]

 

Pitchers need to be followed closely for the earliest signs of fatigue (drop in velocity, change in mechanics, even small amounts of pain in the pitching elbow/shoulder, loss of control) and shut down quickly at the earliest warning signs. 

Not to pick on you specifically, but for everyone in the "shut down at signs of fatigue" crowd, at what threshold should Romero be shut down? I mean, should he be shut down right now? If you look at his Pitch FX splits between May and June, it is pretty clear that compared to May:

- His fastball/sinker are both about 1MPH slower

- His changeup is about 1.5MPH slower

- His slider is breaking less

- His sinker is sinking less

- His changeup is flatter

None of these changes are very big, but they all point in the same direction - Romero's stuff is getting worse. Is it a sign of fatique/injury, or just normal seasonal wear-and-tear?

 

Any shutdown criteria involving abrupt changes in performance or mechanics is, in my opinion, too late; by that point the injury has already occurred. Noticeable changes to mechanics or velocity drops are trailing indicators - the arm/shoulder damage has already reached a point that the players performance is significantly effected. A lot of the early fatigue that pitchers deal with is not outwardly observable - the internal wear, tear and weakness on joints, muscles, ligaments and tendons all through the arm and shoulder.

 

This is why I prefer the idea of innings and pitch limits. While these artificial limits may be arbitrary in many ways, at least it is an objective measure. Trying to make judgments about "fatigue" is way more subjective - and often requires the honesty of a competitive athlete who has little incentive to be shut down. And additionally, at a certain level we understand that the act of pitching is a damaging to the human arm/shoulder. Putting limits along every usage axis - pitches/inning, pitches/game, innings/game, days between starts, innings/season, etc - provides a concrete and objective way to ensure there is rest/recovery time.

Edited June 14, 2018 by markos

[KirbyDaisy]

I'm confused about something.  During a game it's the number of pitches thrown that matters.  Why is it that for an entire season it's the number of innings thrown.  What's worse on a pitcher's arm-throwing 100 pitches in 5 innings or 100 pitches in 9 innings?

[Vanimal46]

I'm confused about something. During a game it's the number of pitches thrown that matters. Why is it that for an entire season it's the number of innings thrown. What's worse on a pitcher's arm-throwing 100 pitches in 5 innings or 100 pitches in 9 innings?

It's all kind of arbitrary and silly, no?

 

Why don't we count warm up pitches toward their pitch count between innings? Or pitches in the bullpen before the game?

[yarnivek1972]

It's all kind of arbitrary and silly, no?

 

Why don't we count warm up pitches toward their pitch count between innings? Or pitches in the bullpen before the game?

The number of pitches between innings is 8. Not sure if that is also before the first or not. Pitches thrown by the starter are going to be the same every start. Maybe not for each individual, but I would guess simillar total number depending on their repertoire and their experience. But certainly every starter will stick to pretty close to the exact same routine every time out. You can be certain those throws are dutifully monitored and logged.

[70charger]

I'm pretty sure that Romero has already used 2018 as an option year, meaning there's no downside, option-wise, to sending him up and down on the shuttle. So, rather than faking a DL stint, which is pretty shady, they can send him to whichever minors team is out of the running and have him rest a bit before coming back up. Maybe make two-inning start or two to stay sharp.

 

Also, I'd be interested to see something like a piggyback situation if they want to limit innings or pitches but don't want to go to a six-man rotation. Could we bring up Slegers and have him pitch a "normal" game after Romero has gone through the lineup once? Mejia could work too, and he's already got a history of short outings in the majors, so a piggyback situation could be a win-win there. Given the bullpen struggles of late, it could be a win-win-win.

 

In any case, based on what happened to Romero in the minors last year, I think fatigue is most likely coming, and it's possible that he hits a wall at some point like he did last year. If he does, you shut him down. Before that would happen, if at all possible, I think you give him minor league rest time or limit his use via piggybacking to avoid him hitting a wall at all, at least before rosters expand. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm pretty sure that Romero has already used 2018 as an option year, meaning there's no downside, option-wise, to sending him up and down on the shuttle.

Correct. Romero has already burned his first 2 option years, 2017 and 2018.