Article: Blind faith vs. evidence and reason

[MarcusE]

Does anyone know if Slama is funny and/or smart? It seems like whenever the Twins do something mind-boggling like this, it turns out that "his personality doesn't fit in the Twins Clubhouse."

[ashbury]

1. Gray is not good.

2. Slama is cheaper, and is from their system, and has had success in the minors.

3. Slama has not proven if he's good in the majors or not.

 

logicial conclusion, dfa Gray, give Slama a legit audition.

 

We're not talking about millions here, but I don't think the Twins get to stop paying Gray if they DFA him; even if they poisoned his Gatorade, they'd still have to pay Gray's estate for the rest of the season. So, it seems that the Twins must believe that Slama would be no better than Gray, and thus they'd be paying twice for the same caliber of performance.

 

They seem to really have faith in their scouting conclusions, that somehow his strikeouts won't translate to the major league level, and the high level of walks will do him in. You could envision, for instance, AAA batters getting themselves out on 2-2 pitches in the dirt that major leaguers won't swing at.

 

All that said, I'm with most here, in wanting to see him get the chance anyway.

[ashbury]

The only person who has defied the evidence has been Deduno.

 

Casey Fien so far hasn't looked like a guy who should have put up 4+ ERA numbers in AAA the past two years.

[Dilligaf69]

I got no problem with Slama replacing Gray....maybe there is something else going on but I do not believe the Twins are afraid of ANYONE succeeding cuz it may make them look bad, that seems ridiculous in itself. I would have to think Slama will be up in Sept.

[mlhouse]

The Slama "problem" is just a small piece of the problem with the organization: They did not realistically evaluate their chances this year, so instead of rebuilding they pretended "we are a contender". THey should have ripped this roster apart and played players like Dozier, Benson, and Slama from day 1. The pieces that failed, failed. The pieces that worked, worked. Then move on from there.

 

But, rebuilding means discarding Gardenhire and his staff because it is clear that this staff cannot work with young players and develop them, and it also means dropping the slow train to the big leagues that our minor league practices now.

 

It worked in 1982, the worst year in Twins history. But, in 1987, much of that lineup was the core of a World Series winning team. But, to pretend that stop gap measures like Jamey Carrol are going to make any difference is ridiculous. I would rather lose 100 games with Dozier at SS (Lenny Faedo was our SS in 1982) and find out if he could cut it (Faedo could not and was replaced by Gagne) or not. Instead, we have prolonged the rebuilding process another year.

[70charger]

Slama is not regarded by the Twins brass as a major league pitcher. He will have to prove himself in another origanization. If he does the 'free Slama' brigade can say 'I told you so'. Until that time comes, can we drop this topic, it's a waste of time and breath.

 

I get your frustration with the topic; I get frustrated with the proliferation of Fire Gardenhire posts. But I don't think it's something that should just be dropped. After all, it is a developing situation. As Slama's ERA drops from 1 to .9 to .8 to .7 to .6 to .59, and Jeff Gray's home runs allowed go from 7 to 8 to 9 to 10, I think it's absolutely true that the issue must be revisited.

 

Although perhaps this is less about Anthony Slama per se than it is about Jeff Gray...

[PopRiveter]

I'll be upset if he doesn't get a Sept call-up, but he's just gaining steam post-injury. For most of the time since the pitching staff v 1.0 fell apart, calling him up hasn't even been an option.

However, it's my hope they are willing to rethink their projected, predetermined conclusion. I'll call it "The Deduno Factor." Try-out some guys who shouldn't succeed. Maybe some will play over their heads. Worked with Parmelee last year.

Anyone else recall Neshek getting called up despite similar nay-saying within the organization? I seem to remember a real lack of team confidence in his brand of deception-based success. When given a shot, he dominated.

[IdahoPilgrim]

You know, it would be worth it to call him up just to end this freaking debate once and for all. I am skeptical of AAA numbers (think Hendriks, Parmelee) and probably trust the organization's ability to evaluate talent more than most on this site, but this has been a topic of discussion for over three months now. The squeaky wheel gets the grease. If he does well, great! If he sucks, this time release him. Either way the debate is over (unless he is marginally competent, in which case we can do this again next year).

 

I do disagree, though, with the final thought expressed in the article. I don't buy the idea that the Twins are afraid they'll be proven wrong. My guess is that they genuinely don't believe Slama has the stuff to transition from Triple-A to MLB. They may be wrong in that assertion, but I don't buy the idea that they're just trying to avoid embarassment.

[Craig Arko]

You know, it would be worth it to call him up just to end this freaking debate once and for all.

 

Yes, please. Knowing is better than endless speculation.

[ashbury]

As Slama's ERA drops from 1 to .9 to .8 to .7 to .6 to .59

 

The brain trust will bring him up when it reaches zero.

[Willihammer]

According to pitch f/x, Slama's 4 seem fastball in 2010 moved 6.7 inches of tailing action and 6.9 inches of rise. Joel Peralta had the best 4 seam fastball among relievers, and his tailed an average of 3.7 inches and rose 11.0 inches. The worst 4 seamer among relievers was owned by Tampa's Lance Cormier, his averaged 2.8 inces of tail and 8.7 rising.

 

I am guessing that Slama's fastball movement was near the periphery of Pitch f/x's boundary where it distinguishes between two seemers, and 4 seamers (and then cutters). I would not be surprised if he was in fact throwing the 2 seamer as per the "pitch to contact." And that was the pitch good for a 25% hr/fb rate in his short time with the club.

 

Does anyone know if Slama is allowed to throw the 4 seamer in Rochester, that is actually the pitch he's succeeding with?

 

For comparison, PitchFX tells us that Peralta didn't throw a single 2 seamer (nor did Cormier). This would be the norm for relievers who have an eye to getting a strikeout when they come into the game.

[Alex]

The guy costs nothing and he's going to be able to walk after this season unless they move him to the 40-man roster. It just doesn't make sense.

 

No, he can't become a 6 year minor league free agent until after the 2013 season, which makes me feel even more horrible for him. he was drafted in 2006, but he didn't sign until early in the 2007 season, after his senior season of college (final year of draft-n-follows). if they don't put him on the 40 man roster (or if they do for September and then take him back off again), he would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. But then again, when the Twins took him off the 40 man last November, no one claimed him. Hard for me to understand this one. In 8-9 years of following the Twins farm system pretty closely, nothing has confused me more than the Slama Situation.

 

Thanks for clarifying (originally my post but I think getting rid of the double quote caused the error). It sounds like he could still be gone for nothing.

 

For those that believe we should trust the Twins scouts, how have they done lately? If you look at how poorly they've done with them, it's arguable that they should probably abandon that approach and that those who have followed just the stats (because that's all we can) have been a bit more accurate this year, unfortunately.

[silverslugger]

The guy costs nothing and he's going to be able to walk after this season unless they move him to the 40-man roster. It just doesn't make sense.

 

No, he can't become a 6 year minor league free agent until after the 2013 season, which makes me feel even more horrible for him. he was drafted in 2006, but he didn't sign until early in the 2007 season, after his senior season of college (final year of draft-n-follows). if they don't put him on the 40 man roster (or if they do for September and then take him back off again), he would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. But then again, when the Twins took him off the 40 man last November, no one claimed him. Hard for me to understand this one. In 8-9 years of following the Twins farm system pretty closely, nothing has confused me more than the Slama Situation.

 

Well, this explains alot. Obviously, there's no trust because he's a college guy and most likely one with a degree if he stuck it out through his senior season. No reason to have free thinkers on our roster. Free Slama! Out of curiosity, do the Twins have any college grads on the 40 man?

[Thrylos]

"Blind faith vs. evidence and reason"

 

love that title. Can probably transport us like a good 500 years ago when Little Nicky Koppernigk used mathematical formulas to show that, heck, the earth moves around the sun. Indeed. But the powers of being back then did not trust numbers... All their scouts were waking up every morning looking up at the sun moving around the earth and that is what it was. Sue them. Same thing is happening right now to Slama. Unfortunately.

[Jim H]

Actually, it seems to me that the original post and many of the following posts are less about Slama, and more about an opportunity to bash the Twins organization. I wish Slama well and hope he gets an opportunity to prove himself, but there is no conspiracy to keep him out of the majors.

 

Keep in mind that when he was pitching well early in the season nearly everyone(including Gray) was pitching well in the Twins bullpen. Then Slama was hurt for 2 months. I would guess he needs to prove he can remain healthy and effective, especially since he is not on the 40 man roster. I have heard this kind of complaint before concerning many minor leaguers in the midst of a hot streak. Generally they get their opportunity. Sometimes they do well, many times they do not.

 

It is a little difficult to understand all the fire and brimstone over what is a pretty marginal prospect. Right now he would be the 12th or rather the 13th man on the pitching staff. I hope he does well when/if he gets promoted, but lets temper some of the over the top crap, I mean level headed analysis going on here.

[drjim]

I commend your ability to read numbers from a boxscore. I also find it a little ironic that you consider the evaluation of those that watch Slama every day as "blind faith" but your ability to read a boxscore as "evidence and reason". Seems a little backwards.

 

I think the reason the Twins have Gray up right now instead of Slama is not all that complicated. As has been mentioned, Slama has missed about two months this season with injury and he pretty much is a one inning max guy (and probably also dicey against LH hitters in general). With the Twins rotation as shaky as it is, it makes sense to have a guy like Gray who can go multiple innings and also have the ability to blow through him with minimal regard for his future. Gray is basically there to soak up innings so the younger and/or more valuable arms don't have to. If Slama had been on the roster instead of Gray many of those extra innings would had to have been pitched by someone else other than Slama, if he was only more or less able to pitch one inning.

 

I am thinking that once September 1 rolls around we will see Slama and perhaps another arm or two get called up and the amount of appearances by Gray will decrease significantly, though he will still be around to mop up a few extraneous innings if a starter gets shelled. I'm no big fan of Gray, but he did his job fine this year, eating innings and protecting other arms.

[snepp]

He did his job fine? His job being one of the worst relievers in the game?

[TheLeviathan]

He did his job fine? His job being one of the worst relievers in the game?

 

Yeah, it's pretty sad when your "success" is having a pulse on the mound and a willingness to be publicly awful at what you do.

[ashbury]

It is a little difficult to understand all the fire and brimstone over what is a pretty marginal prospect.

 

I suppose the converse difficulty is seeing a guy who consistently strikes out more than one per inning, and keeps his ERA under 3, called marginal.

[Alex]

I mean level headed analysis going on here.

 

It's true that numbers don't always translate and that Slama could just have figured out AAA hitters. He still posts a lot of walks and that may be a concern.

 

But conversely, if a hitter was hitting, say .344/.463/.661 in AAA, you'd be wanting to see what he could do in the majors, right? Even if it was only sixty games and his recent few opportunities in the majors were relatively poor.

 

It's also true that Slama has become somewhat of a lightning rod for the Twins talent evaluation, possibly past the point of reason, but how effective has that talent evaluation and their methods of doing so been in the last couple of years?

[Alex]

Things the box score tells me:

 

Of 182 pitchers with 30 or more innings, Jeff Gray's 5.71 ERA is not the worst. He is 171st.

 

Jeff Gray has 49 Appearences and 52 IP. 7 outings have gone 2 IP or more. Slama has 27 G and 30 IP, but I couldn't access data. Either way those ratios are very similar in terms of how much they help the rest of the pen in terms of fatigue.

[righty8383]

I mean level headed analysis going on here.

 

It's true that numbers don't always translate and that Slama could just have figured out AAA hitters. He still posts a lot of walks and that may be a concern.

 

But conversely, if a hitter was hitting, say .344/.463/.661 in AAA, you'd be wanting to see what he could do in the majors, right? Even if it was only sixty games and his recent few opportunities in the majors were relatively poor.

 

It's also true that Slama has become somewhat of a lightning rod for the Twins talent evaluation, possibly past the point of reason, but how effective has that talent evaluation and their methods of doing so been in the last couple of years?

 

When you say Parmelee's recent few opportunities in the majors was reletively poor, I think that was the wrong choice of words. He was not very good this year in 108 AB's. He was very good in his shorter stint last year as a September call up. Also, while Parmelee does deserve to play in the bigs, its widely understood that he is currently being blocked and would not get many AB's up here, therefore he stays in Rochester. As for Slama, he is being blocked by...Jeff Gray.

[jokin]

I mean level headed analysis going on here.

 

It's true that numbers don't always translate and that Slama could just have figured out AAA hitters. He still posts a lot of walks and that may be a concern.

 

But conversely, if a hitter was hitting, say .344/.463/.661 in AAA, you'd be wanting to see what he could do in the majors, right? Even if it was only sixty games and his recent few opportunities in the majors were relatively poor.

 

It's also true that Slama has become somewhat of a lightning rod for the Twins talent evaluation, possibly past the point of reason, but how effective has that talent evaluation and their methods of doing so been in the last couple of years?

 

 

 

What a terrible example, Alex......Now, if only the Twins had somebody even close to that good in AAA.........???

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm still trying to figure out why Revere was sent down in favor of Komatsu, Thomas and Mastroianni.

[Shane Wahl]

"Blind faith vs. evidence and reason"

 

love that title. Can probably transport us like a good 500 years ago when Little Nicky Koppernigk used mathematical formulas to show that, heck, the earth moves around the sun. Indeed. But the powers of being back then did not trust numbers... All their scouts were waking up every morning looking up at the sun moving around the earth and that is what it was. Sue them. Same thing is happening right now to Slama. Unfortunately.

 

Yes, that was one point of the article. I write from my background sometimes . . .

 

I do think the Twins need a Copernicus, that is, a radical shift in thinking about players.

[Shane Wahl]

Actually, it seems to me that the original post and many of the following posts are less about Slama, and more about an opportunity to bash the Twins organization. I wish Slama well and hope he gets an opportunity to prove himself, but there is no conspiracy to keep him out of the majors.

 

It's not about bashing the organization. It is about questioning how they evaluate players and how statistics actually matter (evidence). It is not that there is a conspiracy to keep him out of the majors, rather, there is simply no reason to keep him out of the majors.

 

 

Keep in mind that when he was pitching well early in the season nearly everyone(including Gray) was pitching well in the Twins bullpen. Then Slama was hurt for 2 months. I would guess he needs to prove he can remain healthy and effective, especially since he is not on the 40 man roster. I have heard this kind of complaint before concerning many minor leaguers in the midst of a hot streak. Generally they get their opportunity. Sometimes they do well, many times they do not.

 

Jeff Gray was miraculously pitching well enough. But he has been bad in the majors (90 innings worth) and had been up and down in the minors. That is, given the EVIDENCE provided, one could quite reasonably suspect that he would turn out a 5.00ish ERA this year and generally suck.

 

It is a little difficult to understand all the fire and brimstone over what is a pretty marginal prospect. Right now he would be the 12th or rather the 13th man on the pitching staff. I hope he does well when/if he gets promoted, but lets temper some of the over the top crap, I mean level headed analysis going on here.

 

You didn't read the full post, then. I believe that this team needs to improve at every roster spot when it can. Sorry. Also, I mentioned the sense of justice based on actual merit and opportunity. This is not simply a matter of how the Twins do, but of giving someone a chance that they deserve. It's a way to make a living and given A: that minor leaguers don't make much and B: that Slama has been a minor leaguer for far too long, it bothers my sense of justice. He deserves a chance. Jeff Gray deserved another chance as well, but he has proven that he is not good and has no future in baseball. Slama is the opposite.

[Shane Wahl]

A perhaps final point--it is clear that the bullpen is not the worst part of the Twins roster right now, but there still are questions. Jeff Gray provides no value whatsoever to that bullpen. Give Slama a chance--if he is bad, the Twins' evaluators "win" in their seeing-eye scouting. If he is good, then the Twins have a solid back four for the Bullpen with situational Slama and Duensing, then Burton and Perkins. This would also put less pressure on the likes of Guerra, Robertson, and Oliveros next year.

[kab21]

Things the box score tells me:

 

Of 182 pitchers with 30 or more innings, Jeff Gray's 5.71 ERA is not the worst. He is 171st.

 

Jeff Gray has 49 Appearences and 52 IP. 7 outings have gone 2 IP or more. Slama has 27 G and 30 IP, but I couldn't access data. Either way those ratios are very similar in terms of how much they help the rest of the pen in terms of fatigue.

 

Wow! You have a way of twisting numbers until they appear good. A 5.71 ERA doesn't help anyone. the Twins have a 7 man pen and there are other pitchers like Burnett that can go 2+ innings.

[Buck Nasty]

It seems like everyone is making this a “Slama vs. Gray” debate. It’s not. Slama was removed from the 40 man last year – long before Gray came along. Any team could have claimed Slama last year. None did. Why do you think that is? Does anyone really believe that all of MLB is part of a conspiracy to keep Anthony Slama out of majors? Come on. Slama has put up some good numbers in the minors. But he’s put up some bad ones too. Specifically, he’s averaging over 4 walks per 9 innings. Add that to the fact that his fastball couldn’t break a pane of glass and you probably have your reason why he’s not highly regarded. His 7 walks in 7 innings/1.86 WHIP during his brief stint in the majors only reinforced that concern.

Regarding Gray – he has a decent arm with a fastball averaging about 93 mph per Fangraphs. This is the 5^th year in the row he’s pitched in the majors and with 3^rd team. So again – to make it sound like the Twins are the only people in the world who think this guy could be ok is incorrect. In a year where injuries have again taken a toll on this team, Gray has been healthy/available. He’s had moments when he’s been ok – especially at Target Field (27.1 IP, 18Ks, 1.28 WHIP, .245 BAA). He’s also had moments when he’s been horrible. But unfortunately, that’spretty consistent with the entire team. Bottomline, cutting Gray at this point would be the equivalent of throwing a deckchair off the Titanic to stop it from sinking. It wouldn’t matter.

Again – this should not be “Slama vs. Gray”. If the Twins wanted to see Slama this year,they could have called him up. Here is a list of guys who got the nod ahead of Slama: Jeff Manship, Lester Oliveros, Tyler Robertson, Kyle Waldrop, Casey Fien and Luis Perdomo. That's six guys who they called up ahead of him! And I'm going to guess that Vasquez will be #7.

[BD57]

"Third .... it's not like you've been very good at evaluating pitching talent lately ..."

[Alex]

 

 

Wow! You have a way of twisting numbers until they appear good. A 5.71 ERA doesn't help anyone. the Twins have a 7 man pen and there are other pitchers like Burnett that can go 2+ innings.

 

I hope you caught my sarcasm and I just missed yours...Obviously, the point was that as you say a 5.71 helps no one. If he's pitched multiple innings occasionally it's helped no one because he's essentially left the game early other times.