Article: Starting in September

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?945-Starting-in-September

[TwinsGuy55422]

I would say the 6-man rotation sounds good. I want to see as much of these guys as possible and see what we have going forward. I really hope that Hendriks can figure things out be I think he has the tools to be reliable starter for several years. Admittedly, I don't know a whole lot about Vasquez but I would really like to see what he can do if given an opportunity. I should be an interesting month to say the least.

[JP3700]

I like the plan Seth but I do disagree on Manship being one of the guys to start. I think we've seen enough in 4 years to tell us that he can't get major league batters out consistently. The guy I do want to see is Pedro Hernandez. He's 23.. Shown improvement every year he's been in pro ball and he's been outstanding his last 2 starts for Rochester. The experience should be good for him cause I have a feeling he has a good chance to be part of the twins' future in some capacity.

 

I do want to mention that I really hope PJ gets 100% before he returns. People forget how outstanding he was early on this year. Watching him pitch.. he was never the same after his complete game against the white sox.. and I think that's where he hurt his shoulder. His next start he walked 5 batters when he had walked 5 his previous 3 starts combined in 21 innings.. And it just got worse from there. I remember wondering why his velocity was down to 84-86 in his last few starts before he admitted he was hurt. I don't blame the guy.. He finally got his shot and he wanted to pitch. But I hope this time he makes sure he's 100% so we can see him at his best. I want to see him have a shot at a rotation spot next year. I think he can be a solid #5

[glennhl]

I agree that they should give Manship a chance to start. He's been excellent as a starter, not very good as a reliever. Give him 5 or 6 starts in September and let's see what he can do.

[DaveW]

I like the plan, but I think Manship is as good as gone next year, he just doesn't strike me as someone who will be an asset to a major league bullpen or rotation.

 

If Hendriks steps up, man that would be huge! At least we could go into next season with the thought that Diamond, Hendriks and Gibson could give us 3/5ths of a decent rotation.

 

Color me intrigued when it comes to Vasquez, his walk rate has been tolerable this year.

[Mr. Ed]

Manship? Really? Nick Blackburn PT 2

 

Has been a tough year in the bigs. I don't think the Twins need to use innings to determine him as a viable starter. They already have enough 5/6/7 starters in the rotation without adding another.

[Seth Stohs]

I like the plan, but I think Manship is as good as gone next year, he just doesn't strike me as someone who will be an asset to a major league bullpen or rotation.

 

Manship? Really? Nick Blackburn PT 2

 

Two things... I guess I don't understand why people are so down on Manship when 1.) he's been very good as a starter in AAA yet only has 5 big league starts (4 of them were 4 seasons ago), and 2.) he's had such spotty time with the Twins over that time.

 

You may be right. This may be the end of the line, but if I were the Twins, I'd want to know that I gave a guy with a 91 mph FB, a very good CB, a very good SL and a good Change up a decent chance.

[beckmt]

There are thousands of very good Triple A pitchers over the years that do not have what it take for the majors. Jeff Manship I feel falls into this group. He does not have the stuff to put good hitters away. He will do fine against light hitting lineups or possible the National League(read Marquis). The very good hitting clubs in the American league foul off the pitchers pitches and hit the mistakes. The lower ranking clubs with good pitching all have pitchers with stuff. Twins just have to get there and not be sentamental about it

[DaveW]

I think Manships numbers this year in AAA are deceving, his 6.4/4.0 K/BB ratio indicates to me that his ERA should be much higher then 3.03, plus he has appeared in 49 major league games and hasn't looked good in that time, and is 27. Just not a whole lot of projection left, I guess he could be a stop gap #5 guy, but the Twins have plenty of those at this point.

[Rosterman]

I picture that Swarzak could be on-the-line depending on arbitration. His likely successors are Manship or DeVries.

 

We know what Duensing can do. Keep him in the bullpen.

 

Rotation: Diamond, Deduno, DeVries, Manship, Hernandez, Walters, Hendriks -- get them all work at the beginning of a game.

 

Let us see Guerra. Keep Slama around, please. Perdoma come back up. If you need to see Caleb, do so.

 

On the bullpen bubble: Guitererz, Oliveros.

 

Let Pavano and Capps walk.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I hate the idea of a SIX man rotation. I like the concept of giving tryouts in Sept.--the solution. Shut Diamond down--he is going to be our number 1 or number 2 guy next year. He doesnt need a tryout.

 

Go with Duensing (lets see if with regular starts he can be like last night), Deduno (I like him with his effectiv wildness), DeVries (we need to be sure), Walters (if he is healthy--that means adding him back to roster) and Hendricks. Manship, Hernandez and the rest get there shot in traning camp.

[nokomismod]

Hi Seth,

I like where you are going with this. My only disagreement is with Duensing. I believe if he is allowed to continue to start he will be an average to slightly above average starter again next year (similar to 2010).

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't really see the point of a six man rotation when they can start limiting Diamond's innings through September. The guy has nothing left to prove in a lost season. Let him slide out of the rotation gracefully and prepare for 2013.

[glunn]

I don't really see the point of a six man rotation when they can start limiting Diamond's innings through September. The guy has nothing left to prove in a lost season. Let him slide out of the rotation gracefully and prepare for 2013.

 

I agree. Why not let Diamond rest for next year and leave more room for others to prove themselves?

[DaveW]

I think Duensing needs to be in the pen for all of next season.

For better or worse Perkins will be our main closer heading into next season, Duensing needs to be our LOOGY who can come in in the 7th/8th to help supplement Burton.

 

Though to be honest, I would like them to look into doing a closer platoon with Burton and Perkins.

[deanlambrecht]

Let Diamond pitch up near the recommended max innings, using Duensing as his replacement in a 5 man rotation. I don't see why we need to see more of Duensing as a starter for any reason. With strategic use of Diamond and Duensing, we'd need only a 5 man rotation, and we can get a bit more of a look at the others whom we need to test out. But the general thrust of the Seth's plan is spot on.

[ltwedt]

OK - I'm confused on the Nishi-Blackburn thing - please straighten me out -

 

The Twins did not DFA, them nor did they option them, but they DID "outright" them. I get that outrighting them takes them off of the 40 man, and uses an option, where DFA does not use an option. Why is it termed in this fashion? Is it meant to further send a message to the two of them, that sorta goes like - we don't want you here either now, or never.

 

Thanks - and I'll hang up and listen . . .

[JP3700]

I think a lot of people are living in the moment from the win vs the A's last night on Duensing being a viable starter. Prior to last night he had given up 32 runs in 38.1 innings as a starter. He has a 5.31 K/9 ratio, isn't a ground ball pitcher, and still struggles to get RH batters out. He is very good out of the pen in short stints however and does have value.

 

Personally I think we can cash in that value this offseason. Especially if we feel Robertson can step into his role. Seems to me a package of Denard Span, Brian Duensing, Alex Burnett for James Shields makes sense. Rays won't have a CF next year with Upton leaving and they have 4 veteran relievers that are free agents: Rodney, Peralta, Farnsworth, and Howell. They get 3 big league players with 3 years of control each and we get the ace we're looking for. We would have him under control for 2 years/21 million

[SweetOne69]

OK - I'm confused on the Nishi-Blackburn thing - please straighten me out -

 

The Twins did not DFA, them nor did they option them, but they DID "outright" them. I get that outrighting them takes them off of the 40 man, and uses an option, where DFA does not use an option. Why is it termed in this fashion? Is it meant to further send a message to the two of them, that sorta goes like - we don't want you here either now, or never.

 

Thanks - and I'll hang up and listen . . .

 

Actually neither method uses an option. An option is used when a player IS on the 40-man roster. The player is sent on OPTIONAL assignment to the minor leagues.

 

A player is usually DFA'd when he hasn't cleared waivers yet.

 

When they "outright" a player it means they have cleared waivers.

 

Also, Thrylos mentioned that there 4 types of waivers. And the outright waivers would get them out from under Blackburn's contract if he would refuse the assignment.

[Thrylos]

Seth, I really know that for some reason you are high on Manship, but he has been worse that Blackburn in any of the 3 chances he got to pitch in the majors. Out of options in 2013. I think we can pretty much say that he is not in the Twins' plan for 2013. Also, the same with Walters. Horrible peripherals, horrible 88 mph FastBall etc. Matter of fact, I'd rather see them add BJ Hermsen to the 25 man roster and have him start a couple of games instead of Walters and Manship who are not going anywhere in 2013. Hermsen might make himself part of the equation next season and he needs to be added to the 40-man next season. And doing this this September instead nor they use any option neither his clock starts. Or Pedro Hernandez. He should be in the equation as well, maybe ahead of Hermsen. But no Manship. (and no Walters either.)

 

At this point, Manship is out there with Gray and Blackburn, IMHO. (and speaking of, DFA Gray and Free Anthony Slama where we are at it)

[JP3700]

Seth, I really know that for some reason you are high on Manship, but he has been worse that Blackburn in any of the 3 chances he got to pitch in the majors. Out of options in 2013. I think we can pretty much say that he is not in the Twins' plan for 2013. Also, the same with Walters. Horrible peripherals, horrible 88 mph FastBall etc. Matter of fact, I'd rather see them add BJ Hermsen to the 25 man roster and have him start a couple of games instead of Walters and Manship who are not going anywhere in 2013. Hermsen might make himself part of the equation next season and he needs to be added to the 40-man next season. And doing this this September instead nor they use any option neither his clock starts. Or Pedro Hernandez. He should be in the equation as well, maybe ahead of Hermsen. But no Manship. (and no Walters either.)

 

At this point, Manship is out there with Gray and Blackburn, IMHO. (and speaking of, DFA Gray and Free Anthony Slama where we are at it)

 

I agree with you on Manship.. But I'm curious if you watched PJ's starts. His fastball was hovering around 89-91 before he hurt his shoulder(same velocity as Diamond). He has a nasty curve ball and a solid changeup. If you're basing it on stuff.. Hermsen and Hernandez have similar velocity as Walters. I do believe in Hernandez more due to the fact he has an out pitch.. His change up. Hermsen still hasn't developed a plus pitch.. So he needs more work.

[twinsnorth49]

Seth, I really know that for some reason you are high on Manship, but he has been worse that Blackburn in any of the 3 chances he got to pitch in the majors. Out of options in 2013. I think we can pretty much say that he is not in the Twins' plan for 2013. Also, the same with Walters. Horrible peripherals, horrible 88 mph FastBall etc. Matter of fact, I'd rather see them add BJ Hermsen to the 25 man roster and have him start a couple of games instead of Walters and Manship who are not going anywhere in 2013. Hermsen might make himself part of the equation next season and he needs to be added to the 40-man next season. And doing this this September instead nor they use any option neither his clock starts. Or Pedro Hernandez. He should be in the equation as well, maybe ahead of Hermsen. But no Manship. (and no Walters either.)

 

At this point, Manship is out there with Gray and Blackburn, IMHO. (and speaking of, DFA Gray and Free Anthony Slama where we are at it)

 

I agree with you on Manship.. But I'm curious if you watched PJ's starts. His fastball was hovering around 89-91 before he hurt his shoulder(same velocity as Diamond). He has a nasty curve ball and a solid changeup. If you're basing it on stuff.. Hermsen and Hernandez have similar velocity as Walters. I do believe in Hernandez more due to the fact he has an out pitch.. His change up. Hermsen still hasn't developed a plus pitch.. So he needs more work.

 

 

I agree, I saw Walters pitch against Detroit back in May (when Capps gave up the 0-2 shot to Cabrera to blow the save). At that game Walters fastball was getting up to 89-90 regularly, he was spotting his curve and his change-up had that lineup flailing. I think once healthy he's worth a bit of a look.

[Thrylos]

I agree with you on Manship.. But I'm curious if you watched PJ's starts. His fastball was hovering around 89-91 before he hurt his shoulder(same velocity as Diamond). He has a nasty curve ball and a solid changeup. If you're basing it on stuff.. Hermsen and Hernandez have similar velocity as Walters. I do believe in Hernandez more due to the fact he has an out pitch.. His change up. Hermsen still hasn't developed a plus pitch.. So he needs more work.

 

I think I probably missed 3 games the whole season. Here is PJ Walter's fangraphs page. You can see that per PitchFX has 3 FBs, a 4seamer, a two-seamer (these average at 88.x) and a cut FB that averages around 85 mph. Also a couple breaking balls and a change. If you look down a bit at his pitch values, you can see that only his slider is a decent pitch. Also he got a K/BB around 1.5, a K/9 around 5.5 and a WHIP at 1.5+ Not that great.

 

I have never seen Hernandez pitch. Cannot say much. Saw Hermsen pitch at Spring Training and, yes, he does not have overwhelming stuff. I saw his FB sit a tad higher than Walters' values in the Twins' gun behind home plate last ST. But Brad Radke never did either and neither does Scott Diamond. (I am not comparing any of these 3 players btw, just giving examples of Twins' pitchers will less than great stuff who had success.)

[JP3700]

 

I think I probably missed 3 games the whole season. Here is PJ Walter's fangraphs page. You can see that per PitchFX has 3 FBs, a 4seamer, a two-seamer (these average at 88.x) and a cut FB that averages around 85 mph. Also a couple breaking balls and a change. If you look down a bit at his pitch values, you can see that only his slider is a decent pitch. Also he got a K/BB around 1.5, a K/9 around 5.5 and a WHIP at 1.5+ Not that great.

 

I knew you would bring up overall stats but the reason why I asked if you watched him pitch is because he was a much different pitcher after the complete game against the Sox. His velocity dropped and his command wasn't the same. He reportedly had bad bullpen sessions prior to his last 3 starts and it showed on the mound which tells me that he was already hurt. Much like Pavano they kept running him out there. Take a look at first 3 games. 21.1 innings 2.95 ERA WHIP under 1 and a K/BB of 3. Keep in mind this was against the Blue Jays, Tigers and White Sox. I'm not saying he is a guarantee but I think you have to give him a long hard look when he's 100%

[Thrylos]

 

I think I probably missed 3 games the whole season. Here is PJ Walter's fangraphs page. You can see that per PitchFX has 3 FBs, a 4seamer, a two-seamer (these average at 88.x) and a cut FB that averages around 85 mph. Also a couple breaking balls and a change. If you look down a bit at his pitch values, you can see that only his slider is a decent pitch. Also he got a K/BB around 1.5, a K/9 around 5.5 and a WHIP at 1.5+ Not that great.

 

I knew you would bring up overall stats but the reason why I asked if you watched him pitch is because he was a much different pitcher after the complete game against the Sox. His velocity dropped and his command wasn't the same. He reportedly had bad bullpen sessions prior to his last 3 starts and it showed on the mound which tells me that he was already hurt. Much like Pavano they kept running him out there. Take a look at first 3 games. 21.1 innings 2.95 ERA WHIP under 1 and a K/BB of 3. Keep in mind this was against the Blue Jays, Tigers and White Sox. I'm not saying he is a guarantee but I think you have to give him a long hard look when he's 100%

 

OK. It makes sense then. (but his velocities have been consistent throughout his career) If he will accept another minor league contract. He will be a MiLB free agent after this season. I would not mind giving him September (if healthy) and 2013 Spring Training to win a job (but I hope that the Twins would really get 2 pitchers better than Diamond, so that would make Diamond number 3 and talking about #4 and #5 competition here...)

[JP3700]

OK. It makes sense then. (but his velocities have been consistent throughout his career) If he will accept another minor league contract. He will be a MiLB free agent after this season. I would not mind giving him September (if healthy) and 2013 Spring Training to win a job (but I hope that the Twins would really get 2 pitchers better than Diamond, so that would make Diamond number 3 and talking about #4 and #5 competition here...)

 

There's a big difference between 88-90 and 84-86 which is what he was throwing in his last few starts. Plenty of starting pitchers do just fine at 88-90.

 

I created a projected 2013 roster recently and my rotation had:

 

1. Acquired pitcher

2. Scott Diamond

3. Acquired pitcher

4. Liam Hendriks

5. PJ Walters

 

AAA depth:

Kyle Gibson

Sam Deduno

Esmerling Vasquez

Pedro Hernandez

Cole Devries

Nick Blackburn

BJ Hermsen

 

*Not sure if Deduno and/or Vasquez would still be in the organization. Or Walters for that matter but I think he's the best option to start the season

[ScottyB]

Why do I have a bad feeling that 2013's starting rotation will include Pavano coming back on a contract similar to the one he signed in 2009 - $1.5M base with a whole bunch of incentives. Of course, if he is in fact healed, he might be tradable at the dealine next year.

[twinzgrl]

What I want to know is has there ever been another MLB team to completely turn over their entire pitching staff by mid-Aug.? I feel bad for Duensing. He will do whatever is asked of him, but we all know he needs to be in the pen. I say bring them all up and let them throw. Shut Diamond down. See if anyone can emerge as a possibility for '13...but, the Pohlads need to open up the checkbook and let Terry Ryan find us some proven and competent pitchers. Someone in another thread used this word the other day--suckitude. Brilliant word. Twins Territory is tired of the suckitude.

[Jack Torse]

Why would they shut down Diamond? Recomended max innings? Is this in the field manual? Doesn't he need to get used to pitching a 6 month season? What about next year? Will holding him back this september help him next september or beyond if needed? Dhokay! Wouldn't the same be true for all their pitchers who have been starting throughout the season like Hendricks? I'm sure the Twins probably have discussed the IP with Diamond but I think it's silly. It's not like they have a track record of healthy pitchers.

[Shane Wahl]

I agree with Seth, though once Diamond hits his innings mark, I would substitute in Pedro Hernandez. DeVries can take over Swarzak's spot next year (and be better . . . and be less of a moron) and has proved himself. I want to see the other six each get 5 starts to close the season.

 

Thrylos, I have to say your position taken against Manship is odd given your position on Casilla. It's really odd that you don't see the similarity in situations (though Manship *actually* has not been given adequate time in his proper role as a starting pitcher).

 

In any event Diamond, DeVries, and those 6 together provide me with a bit of encouragement going into an offseason that will likely involve signing only one near-top level pitcher (Marcum might be my choice there). Ideally, Diamond, Hendriks, and X would make up the bottom 3/5 of the rotation next year, but that isn't going to happen.