Trade market for starting pitchers

[Major League Ready]

 

 

probably not, .....but I'm not sure. I'm guessing they are both in 75-100 range....and I'd have to think longer about that. But, I'd probably still consider it. ESan is only going to age and fall off, and one more year of him, vs a FA SP signed for 3 years and a number 4/5 minor leaguer? I think I choose the second one. 

 

I agree but if it's Cobb or Lynn you have to think those two get 4 year deals given the market for free agent SPs or am I in LF?  I would much rather have a middle of the rotation FA and all of our prospects than trade our top SP prospects and this point because one good SP makes us good but I seriously doubt it gets us past the Indians.  However, if you can get more prospects as suggest by Tomj14, maybe we could position ourselves to get a front of the rotation guy.

 

It still seems like a long-shot that we could get DeGrom with anything we get for Santana and if the prospect is that good, I don't think I would give him up.  You notice that the Dodgers, even with their revenue, refuse to give up their best prospects.  Too bad because Bellinger for for Dozier would have been nice for us.

[Tomj14]

 

I agree but if it's Cobb or Lynn you have to think those two get 4 year deals given the market for free agent SPs or am I in LF?  I would much rather have a middle of the rotation FA and all of our prospects than trade our top SP prospects and this point because one good SP makes us good but I seriously doubt it gets us past the Indians.  However, if you can get more prospects as suggest by Tomj14, maybe we could position ourselves to get a front of the rotation guy.

 

It still seems like a long-shot that we could get DeGrom with anything we get for Santana and if the prospect is that good, I don't think I would give him up.  You notice that the Dodgers, even with their revenue, refuse to give up their best prospects.  Too bad because Bellinger for for Dozier would have been nice for us.

I agree those two pitchers will get at least a 4 year deal close to 80 million. My thoughts were it would take the prospect(s) we get for Santana plus some we have or just the ones we have, but that wouldn't drain our prospects completely because we would have more after the trade then before.  

I am not worried about getting better pitchers than Cleveland I am more worried about getting pitchers that give us a better chance against other teams in the playoffs.

For example DeGrom/Archer and Berrios give us a chance against anybody in a 7 game series or 1 game with our offense.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree but if it's Cobb or Lynn you have to think those two get 4 year deals given the market for free agent SPs or am I in LF?  I would much rather have a middle of the rotation FA and all of our prospects than trade our top SP prospects and this point because one good SP makes us good but I seriously doubt it gets us past the Indians.  However, if you can get more prospects as suggest by Tomj14, maybe we could position ourselves to get a front of the rotation guy.

 

It still seems like a long-shot that we could get DeGrom with anything we get for Santana and if the prospect is that good, I don't think I would give him up.  You notice that the Dodgers, even with their revenue, refuse to give up their best prospects.  Too bad because Bellinger for for Dozier would have been nice for us.

 

I thought we just agreed?

 

I'd trade ESan for a Gonsalves type, and sign a Lynn type with the money.

 

You have one more dart in the AA/AAA fold to see if it hits as a SP, and if not, hopefully it is a good RP. You have a younger ESan. You have spent no more money and traded no assets. 

 

That said, if a really good SP comes available, and he has 2-4 years on his deal, they have to consider it. They aren't catching the great teams with "meh" SP.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree about Pittsburgh and Houston. Seattle had interest in Santana at the deadline. I don't know enough about their system to have an opinion on the matter, though.

The Mariners only "MLB ready" SP prospect is Andrew Moore.  Don't think he was ever ranked in any top 100 lists.  5.34 ERA and 4.7 K/9 in his MLB debut this past season.  Fangraphs said "Moore does enough to project as a big-league rotation piece of some kind, likely as a strike-throwing No. 4/5 starter whose bat-missing abilities are limited."

 

Their next best / most ready SP prospect is Nick Neidert, who did sneak onto BA's top 100 midseason (#84) with a solid season at high-A but he's not MLB ready -- 6.56 ERA, 5.0 K/9 in 6 starts at AA to end the season.   Before the season, Fangraphs said "The command (which projects to plus) and secondaries should still allow Neidert to be an effective No. 4 big-league starter, but his upside is limited by a lack of heat, and he features little, if any, physical projection."

 

Maybe you could get one of these guys for Ervin, but why?  We have plenty of this kind of depth.  What we don't have is dependable MLB depth (which Ervin already is) or ace quality/potential (which Ervin doesn't really have, but neither do these guys).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Remember, there are only 29 other teams, and probably only 15-20 who would even entertain the idea of trading decent prospects for a guy like Ervin Santana right now.

 

And Martes and Glasnow were both consensus top 10-30 prospects entering 2017.

 

There aren't enough quality prospects/destinations to simply assume we could get a prospect "like" those from "someone" for Ervin (or other "older resources").  It's going to take some specifics to convince me this is anything more than a pipe dream.

[ashbury]

I'd trade ESan for a Gonsalves type, and sign a Lynn type with the money.

Why wouldn't this other team keep their Gonsalves-type, and sign Lynn themselves?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Why wouldn't this other team keep their Gonsalves-type, and sign Lynn themselves?

 

No idea, no one asked me what I'd do if I was the other 29 teams. Maybe they are at their budget, and can't spend more money? Maybe they are like Baltimore, and LOVE veterans. Who knows?

 

Trades literally happen every off season and every mid-season....but there seems to be a theme on this board that the Twins are never in a position to do one that really matters.

[clone52]

 

Otani is interesting due to his age. He's essentially capped at what he can get. I've got to think things like endorsements/marketing will mean a lot to him.

Offer Otani a spot in the rotation and RF when facing a lefty.  I know he hits lefty and I don't know his splits, but he's got to be better than Kepler was last year.

 

Alternatively, sign Ichiro to platoon with Kepler (he's far better against lefties than righties) and use Ichiro to lobby Otani to come to the twins.

 

[clone52]

 

Its going to cost a lot to get more pitching either way.   Sign/ trade for a 2 or 3 type, Cobb seems the best bet to me, and go all in on the bullpen.  Get at least 2 big arms for the pen.

 

CL FA

SU FA

SU Hildenberger

MR May

MR Buesenitz

MR Rookie

LR Rookie

 

I think they'd be stupid to to try to bring Belisle back in a setup.  You take out 4 exceptionally bad appearances and his ERA was 1.38 and 8 K/9 innings.

 

I know, I know, you can just eliminate the bad outings and say he was an amazing reliever.  I get it, but here is why I'm okay with that.  I'd rather have a guy who had a 1.38 ERA in 90% of his appearances and 1 stinker than a guy with a 2.5 ERA consistently.

 

Compare Belisle (4.03 ERA) to Wade Davis (2.30 ERA).  I mean, clearly Wade Davis must have had a better season.  Belisle gave up 0 Runs in 50 of 62 appearances.  Davis gave up 0 runs in 50 of 59 appearances.  I'd say its not so clear that Davis was that much better.

 

David Robertson (1.84 ERA) gave up 0 runs in 52 of 61 appearances

[prouster]

 

I think they'd be stupid to to try to bring Belisle back in a setup.  You take out 4 exceptionally bad appearances and his ERA was 1.38 and 8 K/9 innings.

 

I know, I know, you can just eliminate the bad outings and say he was an amazing reliever.  I get it, but here is why I'm okay with that.  I'd rather have a guy who had a 1.38 ERA in 90% of his appearances and 1 stinker than a guy with a 2.5 ERA consistently.

 

Compare Belisle (4.03 ERA) to Wade Davis (2.30 ERA).  I mean, clearly Wade Davis must have had a better season.  Belisle gave up 0 Runs in 50 of 62 appearances.  Davis gave up 0 runs in 50 of 59 appearances.  I'd say its not so clear that Davis was that much better.

 

David Robertson (1.84 ERA) gave up 0 runs in 52 of 61 appearances

 

Interesting analysis, although I think there's a lot of value in a relief pitcher's consistency. In how many outings did Belisle give up more than, say, two runs? What about Davis? What about the percentage of inherited runners who scored? I think there's more to the story than the frequency of hanging zeroes. I'd rather take the consistent guy with a slightly worse ERA (which Davis isn't; you're not saying that he is) than the boom or bust reliever who may be untrustworthy in tight spots. Or, I should say that I'd rather take the guy who is both lights out and consistent, like Davis. Not that I'd be against them bringing Belisle back next year, but there are better options out there.

[clone52]

 

The Twins need to sell high and buy low.  E. Santana's value will not be much higher than it is now, and he is due for regression.  With a 4.46 FIP and a 4.60 SIERA he is pretty much a sure bet to regress.  Someone will look at his 3.30 ERA, 16-8 record and 211 IP and value those numbers enough to give the Twins something good in return (young MLB-ready controllable pitching.)  Can he bring back someone like Francis Martes or  Tyler Glasnow (both buy low?)  Those are the kind of deals the Twins should explore.

 

We've been hearing that Santana is due for a regression for 3 straight years.  Sure, he'll fall of a cliff eventually, but other teams know that and aren't going to give up much value for him.  He's more valuable to the Twins at his price than what they'd get back in a trade.

 

The idea of trading Santana (unless they find a fool and fleece them) or Mejia is just silly.  We're already lack depth at SP and unless you can trade a guy for a clear upgrade, it doesn't make sense to whittle away that depth.

[clone52]

 

Interesting analysis, although I think there's a lot of value in a relief pitcher's consistency. In how many outings did Belisle give up more than, say, two runs? What about Davis? What about the percentage of inherited runners who scored? I think there's more to the story than the frequency of hanging zeroes. I'd rather take the consistent guy with a slightly worse ERA (which Davis isn't; you're not saying that he is) than the boom or bust reliever who may be untrustworthy in tight spots. Or, I should say that I'd rather take the guy who is both lights out and consistent, like Davis. Not that I'd be against them bringing Belisle back next year, but there are better options out there.

 

My point was that Belisle is almost as consistant as some of the top relievers in the game.  Its just when he had hiccups, they were more like full throated dry heaves.

 

Don't know those numbers exactly, but in the 4 bad starts, he gave up 3, 4, 5 and 6 runs.  In two of those games, the Twins were down 3 when he came in, so whether he gave up 1 or or 6, it didn't hurt the Twins chances much.  In 2 of those games, the Twins were just down 1, so it was a bigger deal. 

 

 

[clone52]

 

Interesting analysis, although I think there's a lot of value in a relief pitcher's consistency. In how many outings did Belisle give up more than, say, two runs? What about Davis? What about the percentage of inherited runners who scored? I think there's more to the story than the frequency of hanging zeroes. I'd rather take the consistent guy with a slightly worse ERA (which Davis isn't; you're not saying that he is) than the boom or bust reliever who may be untrustworthy in tight spots. Or, I should say that I'd rather take the guy who is both lights out and consistent, like Davis. Not that I'd be against them bringing Belisle back next year, but there are better options out there.

 

We'd all like the guy who is lights out and consistent, but not every team can fill their bullpen with that guy.  Belisle is a pretty solid middle of the bullpen guy

[Tomj14]

 

We've been hearing that Santana is due for a regression for 3 straight years.  Sure, he'll fall of a cliff eventually, but other teams know that and aren't going to give up much value for him.  He's more valuable to the Twins at his price than what they'd get back in a trade.

 

The idea of trading Santana (unless they find a fool and fleece them) or Mejia is just silly.  We're already lack depth at SP and unless you can trade a guy for a clear upgrade, it doesn't make sense to whittle away that depth.

Not to argue but I say we have quite a bit of depth, just not enough quality.

Gibson, Romero, Jorge,  Mejia, Santana, Enns, Berrios, Slegers, Gonzo, Hughes, Turley, May

[zenser]

Out of the big names in FA, the one I would want them to target is Darvish.  I think he has plenty of good years left but he will be expensive.  I know they wont win a bidding war so that is just a dream.  Same goes with Otani.  I would love to get him, just isnt going to happen.

 

For the middle tier guys, I like Cobb and Lynn but so will a bunch of other teams.  I don't know what I would cap them at but I wouldn't want to overspend on these guys just to get them.  The one guy I think would sign a fairly reasonable contract is Chacin.  One of these three would be a nice addition to the rotoation.

[clone52]

 

My point was that Belisle is almost as consistant as some of the top relievers in the game.  Its just when he had hiccups, they were more like full throated dry heaves.

 

Don't know those numbers exactly, but in the 4 bad starts, he gave up 3, 4, 5 and 6 runs.  In two of those games, the Twins were down 3 when he came in, so whether he gave up 1 or or 6, it didn't hurt the Twins chances much.  In 2 of those games, the Twins were just down 1, so it was a bigger deal. 

 

More on Belisle's bad games. 

 

The Twins had an 8-2 lead going into the 8th inning.  Pressley and Breslow procedued to give up 7 straight runs.  Belisle comes in (after pitching 2 innings the day before) with 2 outs and a runner on 2nd, down 9-8.  Altuve doubles in a run to make it 10-8, then Correa walks.  At this point, Beltran comes up, who hits righties far better than lefties, and homes.  Probably should have brought in the lefty at that point, but Breslow was already used and Rogers had pitched the previous 2 days.  Do you really try Rogers for a third day in a row in a game you already trail 10-8, or do you leave Belisle out there as the sacrificial lamb?

 

In the other game, Belisle cam out to pitch the Top of teh 9th in a 7-6 games (Twins trailing).  Got the first out, then walked a guy and gave up a double.  finally an intentional walk loaded the bases.  A single, double, double made it 13-6.  Tyler Duffy, Taylor Rogers and Ryan Pressley had all be used already in the game.

 

The other games, the Twins trailed by 3 late in the game.  No matter which reliever you bring in, if they get into trouble, you probably just stick with them, not blowing more of your bullpen in a lost cause.  If they had been close games.  In a close game, you probably yank him sooner and he gives up 1 or 2 earned runs instead of 5 and 3.

 

So I'd classify two of his blowups as a sacrificial lamb games.  One was extenuating circumstances (due to a 15 inning marathon the day before and a completely blown bullpen).  I'd really only classify one as a game the Twins had a good chance to win, which he blew, but even that one was more of a sacrificial lamb game after he gave up the first 1 or 2 runs (out of 6 total).

 

[clone52]

 

Not to argue but I say we have quite a bit of depth, just not enough quality.

Gibson, Romero, Jorge,  Mejia, Santana, Enns, Berrios, Slegers, Gonzo, Hughes, Turley, May

 

I agree with you, but rank them in the order of confidence you have in them.  For me it'd be like this.

 

Berrios

Santana

Gibson

Mejia

Umm..

still thinking...

May (but should probably start out in the bullpen after Tommy John)

Gonzo (but completely unproven)

Romero (but completely unproven)

Jorge (but completely unproven)

Slegers (deserves a chance but probably a back end guy at best)

Turley (emergency guy at best probably)

Enns (very iffy)

Hughes (he's done).

 

In my opinion, I hope that between Gonzo, Romero and Jorge, one of them pans out as a 2 or 3 starter.  If one becomes an Ace, great, but that is asking a lot.  Expecting 2 or 3 of them to be mid rotation starters is probably asking a lot too.   If we get one of them to be solid, that will be good.

 

If you can trade Santana for lets say a guy like Gonzo and Enns, then maybe you do it, but I don't think you can get a guy like Gonzo for him.  Honestly, I see him getting more of a return like you got for Garcia.  I think we got a steal for Garcia, but the reason we got  that isn't the quality of Garcia, but the fact that the Yankees probably weren't going to keep Enns and Littell on the 40 man roster anyway, the Yankee's were essentially trading away very little.

 

I think you get even less than that for Mejia.

 

I say you absolutely look for trades of those guys, but the probability of getting a good enough return is remote.

 

I'd rather trade some of our minor league pitchers.  Look at the Sonny Gray trade.  If you were the Twins, would consider trading Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves and Kirilloff for a guy like Gray?  I probably would.  You still have Polanco as a serviceable SS and if you lose Dozier after 2018, you can probably fill that gap with a temporary SS/2B until Javier or Lewis is ready.  You'd still have some potential good pitchers near ready in Romero, Jorge and Stewart.

[clone52]

 

Why can't they get Otani, the only thing that would hold them back is a self imposed cap on spending. Otani would be worth his weight in gold in Jersey sales and tourism.

 

It wouldn't even be cost prohibitive.  He's just likely to want to go somewhere else.

 

Maybe you can promise him a chance to play 2 ways, or sign Ichiro (Platoon RF with Kepler) and see if that helps you get Otani.

[h2oface]

 

Twins can't afford to pay full price for an ace or ace potential with long term control, nor do they want to take the risk that, after paying full price, the pitcher gets injured. Instead, what they can do is get another #3- type starter to solidify the rotation, then get an ace rental at the trade deadline.

They can also reasonably expect for more from some or all of Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero and May.

They can also reasonably expect the bullpen to be better with young pitchers contributing more this year and the team hopefully signing a higher tier of free agent.

 

Is this a call for more "do nothing"?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Maybe they are at their budget, and can't spend more money?

Wouldn't that team want to keep their Gonsalves type?  (Also, wouldn't Ervin's AAV be similar to that of Lynn?)

 

 

Maybe they are like Baltimore, and LOVE veterans.

 

Teams "like" Baltimore, who have a Gonsalves type to trade? This isn't that hard, there are only 29 other MLB teams.  How many teams are "like" Baltimore in this regard*** and have a Gonsalves type to spare?

 

9 teams we can probably discount as having no interest in trading quality MLB ready SP prospects at this time:

ATL

CIN

CHW

DET

OAK

PIT

PHI

SDP

TBR

 

16 more don't have a Gonsalves type to trade, even if they wanted (defining "Gonsalves type" as a top 100 SP prospect with at least AA experience, using MLB's current top 100 list for reference).  This is the most subjective part of the exercise, but just eyeballing it, it doesn't look there is a ton of talent just bubbling under the top 100 either.

ARI

BAL

BOS

CHC

CLE

COL

HOU

KCR

LAA

MIA

NYM

SEA

SFG

TEX

TOR

WSN

 

That leaves 4 teams with a "Gonsalves type" who would even consider trading it for Ervin.

LAD - Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez

MIL - Luis Ortiz and Brandon Woodruff

NYY - Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield

STL - Alex Reyes and Jack Flaherty

 

Buehler and Reyes are top 15 prospects, so they are probably off the table for Ervin.  Seems doubtful that the Dodgers or especially the Yankees would see trading top prospects for Ervin as any kind of difference-maker towards their goals either.

 

St. Louis (Flaherty) seems doubtful too -- they probably would have locked up Lynn or wouldn't have salary-dumped Leake if an Ervin-type starter was that much of a priority, no?

 

Then there's the Brewers (Ortiz and Woodruff).  Would we want one of them for Santana?  They seem like low-upside types, and Ortiz isn't particularly ready (just threw a pro high of 94 innings, all at AA in 2017, with middling results/peripherals).

 

Feel free to use this as a springboard for your own specific proposals.  If you want to target names from last year's top 100, it wouldn't take much time either -- but there aren't a ton of guys "like" Martes and Glasnow who graduated from that list (and quite a few like De Leon and Beede and Reid-Foley who dropped off for health/performance reasons).

 

 

*** Does Baltimore really "love" veterans, to the point they'd rather have Ervin than a Gonsalves type, or are they just bad a finding and developing Gonsalves types?  They have Bundy and Gausman in their rotation now, and Tillman was up at age 21 and locked in to their rotation by age 24, so I don't know if they are particularly afraid of committing to young pitchers, they may just have trouble finding them.

[h2oface]

 

Only in your dreams would Detroit trade Verlander to a division rival.

 

In a rebuild, I don't believe this to be the case. In a rebuild, it is all about the best package to get you better and fit the plan. Division be damned.

[clone52]

 

Is this a call for more "do nothing"?

 

Maybe thats the right thing to do?  Lets pretend 2016 didn't happen.  They had 83 wins in 2015 with a young team and 85 wins in 2017 with the team growing up.  Maybe you trust that Gonzo, Romero, Stewart, Jorge are going to pan out.  You have an offense that is very solid and should get better.  Maybe you have a hole at 3B is Sano has to become DH, or you have a hole at DH (relatively easy to fill).  You have a hole in RF against lefty pitchers (not hard to fill either).  Other than that, no changes necessary.

 

Pitching is another matter.  They gotta fill the bullpen out, but have lots of options.  An Ace would be amazing, but to you want to give up whats needed to get it if you think those guys are close to being stars themselves?  Thats why they pay they GM the big bucks.

 

[h2oface]

 

Wouldn't that team want to keep their Gonsalves type?  (Also, wouldn't Ervin's AAV be similar to that of Lynn?)

 

 

 

Teams "like" Baltimore, who have a Gonsalves type to trade? This isn't that hard, there are only 29 other MLB teams.  How many teams are "like" Baltimore in this regard*** and have a Gonsalves type to spare?........

 

*** Does Baltimore really "love" veterans, to the point they'd rather have Ervin than a Gonsalves type, or are they just bad a finding and developing Gonsalves types?  They have Bundy and Gausman in their rotation now, and Tillman was up at age 21 and locked in to their rotation by age 24, so I don't know if they are particularly afraid of committing to young pitchers, they may just have trouble finding them.

 

Getting Ervin through Baltimore's famous medical screening would seem impossible to me, considering his partially torn UCL.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Compare Belisle (4.03 ERA) to Wade Davis (2.30 ERA).  I mean, clearly Wade Davis must have had a better season.  Belisle gave up 0 Runs in 50 of 62 appearances.  Davis gave up 0 runs in 50 of 59 appearances.  I'd say its not so clear that Davis was that much better.

Two things:

 

1. Sounds like you are interested in game-level win probability.  Check out the last two columns in this table:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=1837,7441

 

 

Those are "Shutdowns" and "Meltdowns":

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/sd-md/

 

Davis has a clear advantage over Belisle in this, 30-2 versus 21-10.

 

2. Even if you figure their 2017 performances were close by some measure -- do you think their performances are likely to be close in 2018?  Or in a postseason?  How much did Belisle help us in our elimination game?  Nothing wrong with a guy like that rounding out your pen, but you're in trouble if a guy like that is leading it.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Only in your dreams would Detroit trade Verlander to a division rival.

 

 

In a rebuild, I don't believe this to be the case. In a rebuild, it is all about the best package to get you better and fit the plan. Division be damned.

 

Verlander had a full no-trade.  So it didn't much matter what package/destination Detroit preferred.

[h2oface]

 

Maybe thats the right thing to do?  Lets pretend 2016 didn't happen.  They had 83 wins in 2015 with a young team and 85 wins in 2017 with the team growing up.  Maybe you trust that Gonzo, Romero, Stewart, Jorge are going to pan out.  You have an offense that is very solid and should get better.  Maybe you have a hole at 3B is Sano has to become DH, or you have a hole at DH (relatively easy to fill).  You have a hole in RF against lefty pitchers (not hard to fill either).  Other than that, no changes necessary.

 

Pitching is another matter.  They gotta fill the bullpen out, but have lots of options.  An Ace would be amazing, but to you want to give up whats needed to get it if you think those guys are close to being stars themselves?  Thats why they pay they GM the big bucks.

 

 

Yes. Absolutely. Trade prospects for actual MLB ace and very good pitching, relief and starting. Of all the prospects you are considering, maybe 2 or 3 pan out. It is Falvey/Levine's job to pick the right ones and sell high on the others, before they lose value. What makes a great front office, is making those choices and DOING SOMETHING, and hopefully making the right choices.... like drafting Judge instead of Kohl Stewart....... Andrew Benintendi over Tyler Jay...... not a trade, but similar point. It is the success of the crap shoot choices that make you successful. Hopefully, they will be and will do somethings that make our team a champion again.

[clone52]

 

Two things:

 

1. Sounds like you are interested in game-level win probability.  Check out the last two columns in this table:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=1837,7441

 

 

Those are "Shutdowns" and "Meltdowns":

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/sd-md/

 

Davis has a clear advantage over Belisle in this, 30-2 versus 21-10.

 

2. Even if you figure their 2017 performances were close by some measure -- do you think their performances are likely to be close in 2018?  Or in a postseason?  How much did Belisle help us in our elimination game?  Nothing wrong with a guy like that rounding out your pen, but you're in trouble if a guy like that is leading it.

 

I didn't really look to closely at inherited runners, but you can get around that by not putting him in that situation very often (which means you need better options.  I never suggested Belisle lead the bullpen, but he would be a good, affordable piece to fill it out.

 

Lets say the Twins go crazy and spend 15-20 million and sign Wade Davis and Jake McGee.  You then have this bullpen?

 

Davis

McGee

Hildenburger

Rogers

Busenitz

 

You probably fill one spot with a long reliever (Duffy, Gee, etc).

 

The last spot could go to Belisle.  Either that or Moya, Curtiss or the AAA guys (Reed, Eades, Melotakis, Bard, Chargois, etc).  

 

The truth is, the Twins will probabily sign 2 lower priced relievers (like they always do), not 2 studs like that and if they go that route, I'd rather sign Belisle that probably most other guys you'd get for that price.

 

Either that our go internal all the way.  There is an argument to be made that we have a boatload of RP prospects in the upper m inors and now might be the time to let them sink or swim.  We're likely to lose a couple of them in the Rule 5 draft as well.

 

Hildenburger

Rogers

Busenitz

Duffy

Moya

Curtis

Reed/Eades/Melotakis/Bard/Chargois/Burdi/Jay

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There is an argument to be made that we have a boatload of RP prospects in the upper m inors and now might be the time to let them sink or swim.

That's been the argument/plan for the last several years, and they've generally been sinking.

[S.]

 

They can also reasonably expect for more from some or all of Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero and May.

They can also reasonably expect the bullpen to be better with young pitchers contributing more this year

Yeah, lets just keep doing the same thing with our pitching staff that we've been doing for the last decade, because its been so successful.

 

Berrios has the possibility of getting more consistent, but thats far from guaranteed. Mejia is a back end starter at best, Gonsalves and Romero have no MLB experience, May is coming off of a missed season due to injury. Why should we reasonably expect any of those last 4 to be upgrades over what we got this season? 

 

Our pen is bad and mostly full of guys we've seen be mediocre to bad for multiple years. Once again, if you're saying its "reasonable" to just assume Hildenberger improves drastically and we call up a bunch of guys from AAA who immediately have great success, then I think you're in for some more disappointment. Our track record with our minor league RPs has not been good. How many guys have we had in the last few years who do well in AAA and can't do a thing in the majors? 

 

At some point, we have to change tactics because clearly we're garbage at developing our own pitchers in the minors, as has been proven time and time again over the past decade+

[caninatl04]

Yes. But a team can’t draft an entire pitching staff and have them ready to perform at the MLB level in 2 years.

Especially if the drafting team is the Twins. How are our first round pitchers doing?