It's Never Too Early for Magic Number

[diehardtwinsfan]

4 over the angels now... Rangers TBD, but if they lose it's 4... 

 

 

[jimmer]

 

4 over the angels now... Rangers TBD, but if they lose it's 4... 

4.5 over the Angels and Royals, 4 over the Rangers.

[spinowner]

Baltimore has been eliminated from contention for the postseason.

[spinowner]

 

4.5 over the Angels and Royals, 4 over the Rangers.

Texas loses to Oakland 1-0. All three teams now 4.5 back.

[mikecgrimes]

I'm guessing the Twins have at least a 30% of getting in if they don't win another game

[tvagle]

9-23 MN (Magic Number) 4 with 7 to go

Orioles preparing for long flight south

 

 

Latest projections and probabilities based upon MGF*:

 

2 Wins and we're in

 

*MGF - My Gut Feeling

[wagwan]

If the Twins get swept in Cleveland... a real possibility. . and either KC LA or Texas wins 4 in a row ... the Twins' lead would be less than 2 with 3 to play. It's not over yet

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Twins get swept in Cleveland... a real possibility. . and either KC LA or Texas wins 4 in a row ... the Twins' lead would be less than 2 with 3 to play. It's not over yet

Think about what you just said and the probability of it happening.

 

Somewhere in there, you’ll likely find the ~5% of the Twins not making the postseason.

[wagwan]

Not unlikely at all. The Twins could get swept easily. Cleveland has done it twice already this season. Then they got hot. Meanwhile it would only take one of those three teams, doesn't matter which one to have a modest win streak. The Angels are due. KC and Texas are streaking.

A win today would help but a 4 game sweep on the road is tough. So I see the Twins likely to lose 4 in a row.

Personally I hope they clobber the Indians and clinch in Cleveland. But I bet there will be meaningful games at Target next weekend against Detroit.

[wagwan]

Also the Royals and Angels are playing the White Sox and Tigers while the Twins are playing the Indians.

I like their chances but there will be sone hand wringing before its over.

[spinowner]

 

If the Twins get swept in Cleveland... a real possibility. . and either KC LA or Texas wins 4 in a row ... the Twins' lead would be less than 2 with 3 to play. It's not over yet

I think it's good to protect our chances with a well-placed anti-jinx like this. 

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

Anyone who is scared at this point should get a dog

[mikecgrimes]

 

Not unlikely at all. The Twins could get swept easily.

At this stage in the season the teams that need it more tend to have a significantly better chance of winning which already would have been somewhere around 40% for each game or about 7-8% chance of being swept.  it could happen but the other teams that need to win probably aren't confident enough it will to give the extra effort to cover their end of the deal.

[tvagle]

In the interest of balancing the jinx

 

I'll say it again Win 2 more games and it's on to NY

 

Royals, Angels and Rangers will lose at least 2 games each before season's done

[jimmer]

After today's game, we will have 6 games left and a minimum of a 4.5 game lead over 3 teams.

[Face The Facts]

Three teams tied behind us.

 

KC down 8-1 vs CWS in 9th

[Doomtints]

The other three "contenders" won't even finish .500. 

[brvama]

As I see it the Twins would have to lose 6 and the other 3 win six to just tie us. Not very good odds.

[Doomtints]

 

As I see it the Twins would have to lose 6 and the other 3 win six to just tie us. Not very good odds.

 

Depending on how things finish today, the other teams will have to win 5 or 6 more games than the Twins to tie, with 6 or 7 games remaining.

[Dantes929]

 

Think about what you just said and the probability of it happening.

Somewhere in there, you’ll likely find the ~5% of the Twins not making the postseason.

When my dad was in the army in WWII, early in basic training a sergeant told them not to worry.  They only had a 1 in 20 (5%) chance of being killed.   My dad said "Yeah, but if I am the 1, for me its 100%."

   

If you were offered even odds that a card turned over at random wouldn't be an Ace or King of hearts you  would bet a lot of money.   Some would even bet the house but don't tell me you wouldn't have some anxiety when the card was turned over.   And that is a 1/26 chance of bad result.    I'm not particularly nervous because the odds are great but Tracy McGrady wasn't particularly nervous when his team was up 3-1 in a best of 7 series and he said "its good to finally win a series"

[Dantes929]

Remember when everyone thought 86 wins might be needed to get the 2nd spot.

[Dman]

A single win in the Cleveland series would make me feel a lot better but given the state of the Tigers you have to like our chances right now.  A couple of tough loses for the other teams is all it takes for them to be eliminated.

 

I like our chances but like a lot of Minnesotans I never take anything for granted and the baseball gods can be cruel.  I am rooting for them and am excited that they have a very good chance to make the playoffs.  There have been some really tough years would be nice to see this team in the post season.

[tvagle]

I appreciate the Minnesota Paranoia...but c'mon...we're on to New York

[jimmer]

I appreciate the Minnesota Paranoia...but c'mon...we're on to New York

yup

[spinowner]

 

When my dad was in the army in WWII, early in basic training a sergeant told them not to worry.  They only had a 1 in 20 (5%) chance of being killed.   My dad said "Yeah, but if I am the 1, for me its 100%."

 

Here's another similar way to look at it. Let's say you are diagnosed with cancer that has a 95% cure rate. Most people, including me, would be relieved. But now write down the names of 20 people who are very important to you and cross one name off the list.

[spinowner]

Seattle has been eliminated from contention for the postseason.

[stringer bell]

Angels play two games before the Twins play again. It's pretty likely the magic number for clinching the #2 Wild Card will be 2 before the Twins take the field again.

[tvagle]

And then there were 3...Mariners have gone fishing

 

 

 

[snepp]

The six teams that were bunched up behind the Twins have combined to go 20-40 in their past ten games.

[wagwan]

Angels vs White Sox for the next four games ...     Twins vs Indians     Twins are pitching Colon and Meija to start the series.  Who is going to be the first to quote Gary Gaetti about playing for a championship in Cleveland?