Falvey

[prouster]

There frankly is no reason why Melville should have taken the hill, his stinker of a game cost this team an otherwise cake wake of a winnable game.

 

Conservative nonsense.

 

Also why not stretch out Duffey for the rotation?

Who would you have had them start? (I don't think Duffey has been an option since spring...)

[SF Twins Fan]

I don't know about everyone else but I'd sure take another start from Gee based on how he's pitched in the bullpen this season and his start last night.

[ashbury]

People can all ooh and aah over minor league stats, but it really does not project to major league stats.

You can't project with the precision you seem to want, but there's been evidence for too long that minor league stats are indeed useful as a predictive tool. The key is to look at the right ones - ERA is a comparatively crude choice.

 

Tim Melville's performance at Rochester in 2017 suggests to me that he might be marginally better in the majors than he showed yesterday, but not good enough to be allowed the additional innings necessary to demonstrate that very modest potential. His OPS-against in AAA would be about league average, after you factor in an unusually low BABIP - and league average pitching is not going to cut the mustard when brought up to the majors. IMO he would struggle to keep his ERA in the majors under 6, if he were foolishly allowed to get beyond SSS.

 

I'd be very curious to hear someone in the Twins analytic squad say what better measures they use that made them see anything more in Melville than that. Maybe there's nothing, and the emergency start was driven by the other factors being discussed here.

 

[clone52]

 

Or, to beat a dead horse, maybe not sell at the deadline.

 

Seriously?  Garcia has been awful for New York.  That was a fantastic trade of a rookie ball pitcher for a decent looking AA and AAA starter.

 

Trading Kintzler was more questionable, but this 20-20 hindsight is ridiculous.  #1, at worst, it's cost us 1 game so far, and thats assuming that Kintzler wouldn't have blown a save himself.  Most people thought Kintzler couldn't keep producing like he had with the Twins, and now they are freaking out that the front office got something of value for him.

 

Not to mention the fact that 99.99% of Twins fans realize that this is not the year they are going to win it all.  They are building for the future and keeping a couple of players who are either fringe players or leaving at the end of the year to try to squeeze into the playoffs is a bad idea.

 

Plus, they didn't fire sale.  It sounds like teams made offers for Santana and Rosario at least, and the front office didn't pull the trigger.  That shows me that they weren't just making trades to make trades.  They were making trades where they felt they got back more value than they gave up.

 

Plus, you can't discount that maybe this was a Rachel Phelps moment.  The team was playing awful before the trade and playing fantastic after.  Maybe a fluke, or maybe the trade lit a fire under the rest of their asses.

[gheggs42]

I feel like I saw Melville was averaging around 96 on his fastball? Could that play up in the pen? He definitely looked like he had some nerves yesterday. Turley as well was averging pretty good on his fastball velo. I think you have to see what these guys have cause you can't teach velocity. 

[Darius]

Or, to beat a dead horse, maybe not sell at the deadline.

If they wouldn't have sold, and didn't miraculously crawl back into with an epically bad pitching staff, people would be bitching up a storm. How else do you acquire talent when ownership is dirt cheap?

 

I'm not mad that they sold (quite the opposite, Kintzler is just OK, and closers are overrated, and Garcia is going to be a disaster in the AL). I'm mad that they refused to spend a dime on the bullpen going into the season, which cost a bunch of wins early, then refuse to give talented young starters a shot in lieu of independent league guys that shouldn't be on any roster.

 

All that said, something struck me about the MacPhail induction. He said he had to fight tooth and nail for decision making power. That's the answer to all of your problems, and what was always expected but never solidly confirmed.....the Pohlad's hamstring the daylights out of any front office personnel that they bring in. No surprise that every GM candidate outside of 30 year old assistant for Cleveland and Rob Antony declined an interview for the job.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Seriously? Garcia has been awful for New York. That was a fantastic trade of a rookie ball pitcher for a decent looking AA and AAA starter.

Awful? Garcia lost to Cleveland (would have fit right in with the Twins!) but the Yankees won his other two starts so far, nothing great but he pitched into the 6th inning and allowed only 3 runs in both of those wins.

[drjim]

 

Seriously?  Garcia has been awful for New York.  That was a fantastic trade of a rookie ball pitcher for a decent looking AA and AAA starter.

 

Trading Kintzler was more questionable, but this 20-20 hindsight is ridiculous.  #1, at worst, it's cost us 1 game so far, and thats assuming that Kintzler wouldn't have blown a save himself.  Most people thought Kintzler couldn't keep producing like he had with the Twins, and now they are freaking out that the front office got something of value for him.

 

Not to mention the fact that 99.99% of Twins fans realize that this is not the year they are going to win it all.  They are building for the future and keeping a couple of players who are either fringe players or leaving at the end of the year to try to squeeze into the playoffs is a bad idea.

 

Plus, they didn't fire sale.  It sounds like teams made offers for Santana and Rosario at least, and the front office didn't pull the trigger.  That shows me that they weren't just making trades to make trades.  They were making trades where they felt they got back more value than they gave up.

 

Plus, you can't discount that maybe this was a Rachel Phelps moment.  The team was playing awful before the trade and playing fantastic after.  Maybe a fluke, or maybe the trade lit a fire under the rest of their asses.

 

To be clear, it's not hindsight. I did not approve of the trades at the time, I hated selling at the time, I thought they should have bought. It seemed clear they had a chance to make a run when the schedule opened up a little. And they have.

 

And while we don't know for sure, it is much more likely that the down from the trade cost them a game or two rather than lighting a fire, and almost certainly cost them the Detroit game, and may have impacted other bullpen management decisions. The improved play was inevitable considering they were playing worse competition.

[Seth Stohs]

I would have loved to see Gonsalves, for obvious reasons, but I had absolutely no problem with them deciding to give a start to Melville. He's earned it in Rochester, and his stuff has been good too (not just the numbers). Obviously it didn't go well, and he may or may not get another shot. Maybe Gee is in the rotation and Melville is in long relief for a bit. We'll see. 

 

There's no guarantee Gonsalves would have done better, and as much as I generally like to think to the future, the 2nd Wild Card spot is currently held by the Twins. Go for it. They made a decision presumably based on who they felt gave them the best chance to win, likely with the input of Quade, Cliburn and others. I'm not smart enough of a baseball person to think that I know it would have been better with someone else making that start. 

[drjim]

 

If they wouldn't have sold, and didn't miraculously crawl back into with an epically bad pitching staff, people would be bitching up a storm. How else do you acquire talent when ownership is dirt cheap?

I'm not mad that they sold (quite the opposite, Kintzler is just OK, and closers are overrated, and Garcia is going to be a disaster in the AL). I'm mad that they refused to spend a dime on the bullpen going into the season, which cost a bunch of wins early, then refuse to give talented young starters a shot in lieu of independent league guys that shouldn't be on any roster.

All that said, something struck me about the MacPhail induction. He said he had to fight tooth and nail for decision making power. That's the answer to all of your problems, and what was always expected but never solidly confirmed.....the Pohlad's hamstring the daylights out of any front office personnel that they bring in. No surprise that every GM candidate outside of 30 year old assistant for Cleveland and Rob Antony declined an interview for the job.

 

Even with that hamstringing, they still added money at the deadline. I don't think that has anything to do with it. The front office got too cute by half and it could very easily cost them a playoff spot.

[drjim]

 

Awful? Garcia lost to Cleveland (would have fit right in with the Twins!) but the Yankees won his other two starts so far, nothing great but he pitched into the 6th inning and allowed only 3 runs in both of those wins.

 

Indeed. Garcia pitching yesterday instead of Melville and that's a sweep. He is a better option that what they have run out at the 5th spot.

[Seth Stohs]

 

All that said, something struck me about the MacPhail induction. He said he had to fight tooth and nail for decision making power. That's the answer to all of your problems, and what was always expected but never solidly confirmed.....the Pohlad's hamstring the daylights out of any front office personnel that they bring in. No surprise that every GM candidate outside of 30 year old assistant for Cleveland and Rob Antony declined an interview for the job.

 

MacPhail worked under Carl Pohlad in the Metrodome. 

Falvey works under Jim Pohlad in Target Field. 

 

Sure, they'll be fiscally responsible, but we see year after year that the Twins payroll ranking relative to their revenue ranking lines up pretty favorably. The "Cheap Pohlads" thing is just an old excuse at this point. 

[yarnivek1972]

Indeed. Garcia pitching yesterday instead of Melville and that's a sweep. He is a better option that what they have run out at the 5th spot.

I don't think one can assume that. The Twins scored two runs off Rodon in 6 plus innings. The Sox do have some good relievers left. The Twins didn't see them until the 9th because the game wasn't close until the 9th.

 

Point being the Twins loss in game one had more to do with their mound opponent than who they put on the mound IMO.

[Darius]

Awful? Garcia lost to Cleveland (would have fit right in with the Twins!) but the Yankees won his other two starts so far, nothing great but he pitched into the 6th inning and allowed only 3 runs in both of those wins.

That gets a standing O here.

[yarnivek1972]

Gee made sense all along and Melville earned the start by being the best starter at AAA. I think the criticism is unwarranted. Trading Garcia is turning out to be a questionable move but completely understandable at the time given that the team came out of the All Star break and tanked against playoff teams. let's not let this good run obscure the fact that this team hasn't shown itself to be competitive against playoff caliber opposition with the exception of the Diamondbacks series. This remains a developmental year and one of the things they need to answer is who's in the rotation next year. Starting Gee and Melville helps answer that question.

 

The bigger test will be the next few weeks. Do you start Slegers? One would hope so given his performance in the start he had - if this is a competition for those last 2 starting spots, there isn't much question that Gee and Slegers are in the lead. Gibson should be down to his last chance today. Melville showed us yesterday that isn't ready - not enough command. Gonsalves has to show that he can get AAA hitters out before he can move up. I could see both Gee and Slegers starting in the rotation next year with one of them coming out when May is ready or with May replacing Colon if Colon goes one more year. .

Gibson should have been out of chances last September.

[Thrylos]

 

Shame on the Twins front office for calling up Melville and starting Gee in this double header.

 

Do you really have an issue with Gee?

 

Melville was slated to start yesterday for Rochester.  The other options were either Zack Littell the Chattanooga starter or start someone else in short rest.

 

Who would your start?

 

[Darius]

MacPhail worked under Carl Pohlad in the Metrodome.

Falvey works under Jim Pohlad in Target Field.

 

Sure, they'll be fiscally responsible, but we see year after year that the Twins payroll ranking relative to their revenue ranking lines up pretty favorably. The "Cheap Pohlads" thing is just an old excuse at this point.

Is this the same guy trying to say they hardly took any tax dollars....when in reality a public entity took on debt and paid for over half of the stadium?

 

Who do you think Jim learned from?

 

I disagree with your sentiment. If you like the way the Pohlad's do business (sign up for contraction, threaten a move, extort taxpayer dollars, claim they'll compete for big time free agents with the additional revenue/better facilities, etc), more power to you.

 

There is ownership groups out that genuinely care about baseball games. This isn't one of them. If they don't want the "old excuse" hanging around...aka the reputation they've done everything in their power to earn (outside of the Twins as well)....there is plenty they could do to change that.

[DaveW]

Do you really have an issue with Gee?

 

Melville was slated to start yesterday for Rochester. The other options were either Zack Littell the Chattanooga starter or start someone else in short rest.

 

Who would your start?

Gee was fine since he was already on the roster. Melville? Dumb.

 

They knew this double header was coming days in advance, they easily could have adjusted the AAA rotation to get literally anyone else up besides the 27 year old guy who was CUT from the independent league earlier this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't believe Melville was cut from the indy league, I think he was let go to take an affiliated deal, which is standard practice. He pitched quite well in indy ball, correct?

[Loosey]

 

Gee was fine since he was already on the roster. Melville? Dumb.

They knew this double header was coming days in advance, they easily could have adjusted the AAA rotation to get literally anyone else up besides the 27 year old guy who was CUT from the independent league earlier this year.

It was one game in a 162 game season.  This isn't the NFL where 1 game can make or break a season.  If they miss out on the playoffs by 1 game it wasn't because of the Melville game.  It would be because of that and all the other games they lost during the season.  Sometimes in MLB you have to throw a body on the mound and hope and pray it works, especially when you have double headers.  It didn't work this time.  The Twins aren't the only team that takes flyers on guys who have no real chance to stick with the team.

[howieramone2]

 

Or if you sell, at least don't sell just to acquire a bunch of AAAA upside type guys.

This is what happens when ownership goes "cheap" on the GM search. These guys have done zero to help out this team for 2017 or the future.

Unreal.

Castro was a very good pickup and the 2017 draft was similar to what the Astros did in 2012. We've been in the hunt 2 of the past 3 years, and for all intents and purposes, the rebuild will end with this season. The glass isn't half full, it's running over.

[bird]

 

MacPhail worked under Carl Pohlad in the Metrodome. 

Falvey works under Jim Pohlad in Target Field. 

 

Sure, they'll be fiscally responsible, but we see year after year that the Twins payroll ranking relative to their revenue ranking lines up pretty favorably. The "Cheap Pohlads" thing is just an old excuse at this point. 

 

 

The truth of the matter is that Jim Pohlad, Andy MacPhail, and others used to commiserate on how hard it was to get Carl Pohlad to relinquish decision-making control. Labeling the current ownership as "cheap" is false, uninformed, and unfair.

 

We can easily find many franchises that would make similar financial decisions as we've witnessed since Carl's death. And we'll find an equal number of franchises willing to spend more and determined to spend less.

 

[howieramone2]

 

Gibson should have been out of chances last September.

Gibson will be pitching in The Show for at least the next 2 or 3 years. He has value unlike board favorites Pinto and Arcia. If the search committee had chosen me, I would have Gibson and Gonsalves compete for the 5 spot in ST next year and trade Gibson if he doesn't come out on top.

[rghrbek]

 

Gibson will be pitching in The Show for at least the next 2 or 3 years. He has value unlike board favorites Pinto and Arcia. If the search committee had chosen me, I would have Gibson and Gonsalves compete for the 5 spot in ST next year and trade Gibson if he doesn't come out on top.

 

Suggesting Kyle will have trade value come next spring might be a little off in my opinion.  I believe he has one more year of arbitration which means he will likely get a raise (just how MLB works, even though he has been bad).  Which means he would be making more than the 2.9 million or so he makes now.  I just don't see a scenario where the twins sign him.

 

2ndly, Kyle has been the worst starter in twins history with over 75 starts.  You may want to look at Gleeman's series of tweets over the summer showing both old school stats and advanced stats.  None are very kind.  Here's a few:

 

Kyle Gibson has officially moved past Nick Blackburn for the worst ERA+ in Twins history (min. 75 starts):

85 Kyle Gibson
86 Nick Blackburn

 

Kyle Gibson homers per nine innings:
2014: 0.6
2015: 0.8
2016: 1.2
2017: 1.7

 

 

 

 

 

[yarnivek1972]

Gibson will be pitching in The Show for at least the next 2 or 3 years. He has value unlike board favorites Pinto and Arcia. If the search committee had chosen me, I would have Gibson and Gonsalves compete for the 5 spot in ST next year and trade Gibson if he doesn't come out on top.

He has value in that he is a healthy pitcher. That alone gives him value. It certainly has nothing to do with performance. Take away his only good period (first half of 2015) and he has an ERA well north of 5.

[kellyvance]

 

Gonsalves is a flyball pitcher who still is working on his command. Romero is on an innings limit. It is what it is. You can't create a pitching staff out of thin air, which is what a subset of posters on this board demand from the new front office.

 I disagree completely with Dave W and several others. I agree with the above quote. These minor league guys often get the call for a one day cup of coffee in a double header. It is done all the time. And giving a minor leaguer a call up is a great idea. Nothing like a cameo to whet the appetite.  Gee at least looks like he belongs and I hope he gets another start. He has pitched very well. 

[prouster]

 

Who would your start?

 

This is the million dollar question. I'm wondering what the obvious option is that Falvey and Levine are too stupid/incompetent to see.

[clone52]

 

Awful? Garcia lost to Cleveland (would have fit right in with the Twins!) but the Yankees won his other two starts so far, nothing great but he pitched into the 6th inning and allowed only 3 runs in both of those wins.

 

His ERA with the yankees is 6.32.  Thats WORSE that Kyle Gibson's.

 

Don't even get me started on ingoring the worst start.  I tried doing that a couple months ago with Belisle and got crucified on here for suggesting he was a pretty good reliever with a couple of rotten outings.

[DaveW]

I wish Melville nothing but the best but he should by no means be strating meaningful games for a team with a legit chance at the playoffs.

It's not Melville's fault at all, it's the front offices fault IMO. If the Twins were 7 games up or 5 games down in the playoff hunt? No issue whatsoever, but tied or a half game up with 5 teams within 2-3 games of you? Not the time to be giving feel good stories starts IMO

 

Professional sports is about winning.

[clone52]

 

Indeed. Garcia pitching yesterday instead of Melville and that's a sweep. He is a better option that what they have run out at the 5th spot.

 

Just stop.

 

If Garcia had started for the Twins on August 4th, it entirely possible the Twins would have lost that game instead of won it.