Are the Twins buyers again?

[nicksaviking]

 

The bullpen has actually been serviceable as of late.  No, they should not pick up a bullpen arm right now.

 

A don't screw with the chemistry kind of deal?

 

I was looking at Jim Johnson but then started thinking the same thing; maybe if we don't blow on it too hard it'll all stay together.

 

We still have 20 days in the month, if the pen starts cracking up, then go nuts. I'm kind of leery messing with a good thing at the moment though.

 

People here have got me interested in Verlander though. I don't like old pitchers, but it's only two more years after this. And he's still throwing 95 MPH.

[Willihammer]

Of the 7 teams in the AL wild card chase, the Twins have the easiest schedule by this measure:

 

https://www.twinkietown.com/2017/8/10/16123302/wild-card-chase-comparing-remaining-strengths-of-schedule

[AlwaysinModeration]

People here have got me interested in Verlander though. I don't like old pitchers, but it's only two more years after this. And he's still throwing 95 MPH.

Welcome aboard the Verlander train! There's plenty of room, as it's not really rolling yet, and let's be honest, will likely never leave the station.

 

But maybe, just maybe, the Twins will leave Detroit on Sunday with 2 or 3 wins AND Verlander in tow, who will be lined up to pitch for the Twins against Cleveland in the series opener on Tuesday night?

[Doomtints]

Verlander seems to be pretty anti-Twins, plus he is expensive. Let him go the Yankees or whoever. Like A-Rod, Verlander is often terrible in the playoffs. Keep the tradition alive!

[Mr. Brooks]

Verlander seems to be pretty anti-Twins, plus he is expensive. Let him go the Yankees or whoever. Like A-Rod, Verlander is often terrible in the playoffs. Keep the tradition alive!

Verlander:

Reg. Season: 3.50 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, 8.5 K/9

Post Season: 3.39 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 10.3 K/9

 

He's actually stepped his game up come postseason.

Looking through the game logs he's had 1 dud (WS vs SF), and 3 or 4 mediocre starts, but also some shutdown starts. Like 2013, 3 starts

23 innings

10 hits

1 run

3 BB

31 K

 

Performances like that can carry a team in the postseason.

[Doomtints]

 

Verlander:
Reg. Season: 3.50 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, 8.5 K/9
Post Season: 3.39 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 10.3 K/9

He's actually stepped his game up come postseason.
Looking through the game logs he's had 1 dud (WS vs SF), and 3 or 4 mediocre starts, but also some shutdown starts. Like 2013, 3 starts
23 innings
10 hits
1 run
3 BB
31 K

Performances like that can carry a team in the postseason.

 

Yes, he was good in 2012-2013, but I wasn't going to say that.

 

In 2006, 2011, 2014 his post-season ERA was around 5.75.

[spinowner]

 

While it might look schizophrenic to become buyers again, there is one scenario that could make sense. Falvey and Levine went into trade deadline saying they wanted to trade for controllable assets. Verlander is under contract through 2019. If they could get some salary relief, he would be a big boost to their rotation for this surprising stretch run, as well as the next two years.

He's having a bit of a down year, but his BABIP is over 300 this year. I bet jumping into a playoff race and getting in front of the Twins defense would help.

Imagine the jolt it would give the team. (And the rotation.)

Could they pull this off? Convince the Pohlads to pay that salary? Find a prospect return that wouldn't hurt too bad but be enough for Detroit to bite?

 

 

Do it.

Do it only if a: it doesn't require trading away anyone we are counting on and b: if he and Kate Upton move in down the street from me.

[Monkeypaws]

Buyers again?

 

I sure as merde/scheiss hope not. Give our system a bloody chance. 

 

Why have a farm system if you don't use the thing? Yeah, I know the current regime didn't build it, but at least give guys a chance to work their way out of the organization, much as they have done with scouts, admin types, etc.

 

This team has some character - let them play it out...next year looks better than this year did last year, or something like that.

[USAFChief]

Buyers again?

 

I sure as merde/scheiss hope not. Give our system a bloody chance.

 

Why have a farm system if you don't use the thing? Yeah, I know the current regime didn't build it, but at least give guys a chance to work their way out of the organization, much as they have done with scouts, admin types, etc.

 

This team has some character - let them play it out...next year looks better than this year did last year, or something like that.

Using the minor leagues to augment the major league team via trading for major league help IS using the minor league system, no?

[drjim]

Using the minor leagues to augment the major league team via trading for major league help IS using the minor league system, no?

Absolutely it is. The very reason to build up depth.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Using the minor leagues to augment the major league team via trading for major league help IS using the minor league system, no?

 

Interesting way of looking at it. Everybody was a minor leaguer once though. 

[Darius]

Verlander would be great. If they wanted to go the route of eating the salary, saving on the players shipped, that would be ideal. Not sure I see that happening.

 

A decent bullpen rental may be had for cheap. That would probably be necessary if you're serious about the playoffs at this point.

[TKGuy]

Bullpen has been pretty competent of late. We really could use another starter to replace Gibson/Mejia, but I'm not convinced a short term rental starter that would pass through Waivers would be that much of an upgrade. Don't have any problem with using Enns or how about this, give Gonsalves a whirl

[Jham]

Some analyst was suggesting that Verlander and his contact could simply be ceded if claimed. My thought is that Detroit probably wants to compete next season. Has Verlander actually passed through waivers yet?

 

We'll need some additional bullpen help since Molitor runs through his arms. He'll have to shuffle and use our farm to rotate in fresh arms.

 

I'd OK either way. But there is virtually no chance of our system having someone better than even a declining Verlander. Let's just dispel that notion.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Some analyst was suggesting that Verlander and his contact could simply be ceded if claimed.

I highly doubt we're at that point quite yet. At season's end, Verlander will likely have accumulated ~11 fWAR over his past three seasons.

 

Yeah, he's overpaid. Yeah, he's aging. But he's still a good pitcher and Detroit won't let that go for nothing (though I wouldn't pay much more than nothing for the rest of that contract).

 

I suspect Detroit isn't quite ready to give away Verlander, though that point is probably coming soon if Verlander ages in a typical fashion. But if he keeps performing, his value will actually rise as the contract expires.

[ThejacKmp]

Detroit isn't going to trade Verlander in division unless they get a sweetheart deal. I don't want to give a sweetheart deal.

 

I don't see a bullpen trade that I want to do. I want to get Molly to start trusting Buesnitz, Trevor H., Gee etc. in more high leverage situations. I don't want to give up prospects. Maybe if it's a very minor prospect?

[ThejacKmp]

 

Bullpen has been pretty competent of late. We really could use another starter to replace Gibson/Mejia, but I'm not convinced a short term rental starter that would pass through Waivers would be that much of an upgrade. Don't have any problem with using Enns or how about this, give Gonsalves a whirl

 

Gonsalves has one start at AAA, we should give him time.

 

The Twins have a lot of options at 4th and 5th starter - I'd like to see them throw things at the wall and see what sticks. Between Santiago, Colon/Mejia, Sledgers, Gibson, Enns and Hurlburt, there's got to be someone who can step it up down the stretch.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Detroit isn't going to trade Verlander in division unless they get a sweetheart deal.

I honestly hope they have this attitude. As Levine said in the GatG interview, he hopes teams think this way because the Twins will deal with 29 teams, no matter their record or division. You deal with whomever will help you improve your team the most.

 

Refusing to deal within your own division is idiotic. You're limiting your own options to build a winning team. So, yeah, I hope Detroit absolutely refuses to deal within the division. They'll have a harder time rebuilding with that attitude.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I honestly hope they have this attitude. As Levine said in the GatG interview, he hopes teams think this way because the Twins will deal with 29 teams, no matter their record or division. You deal with whomever will help you improve your team the most.

 

Refusing to deal within your own division is idiotic. You're limiting your own options to build a winning team. So, yeah, I hope Detroit absolutely refuses to deal within the division. They'll have a harder time rebuilding with that attitude.

 

I don't think you never deal in your division but I think there are players that you hold off on. For example, the Twins would be unlikely to deal Sano but even then, they'd be way less likely to deal him in division. The same probably does not hold true for Eduardo Escobar.

 

I think Verlander is a guy the Tigers wouldn't want to deal to a rival. Maybe I'm wrong.

[Shaitan]

 

It would create interesting discussions around the league, I'd think, and elsewhere, about their decisiveness. 

Maybe it's not indecisiveness. Maybe it's a different mindset completely, viewing a 162-game roster as a more fluid thing? Dunno. I would be interesting if the bought/sold/bought and made it to the post-season, just to see if other GMs would copy the idea. 

 

I kind of hate the all-or-nothingness of the current Trading Deadline. It makes baseball hard to watch in 2/3s of baseball cities after August 2.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think you never deal in your division but I think there are players that you hold off on. For example, the Twins would be unlikely to deal Sano but even then, they'd be way less likely to deal him in division. The same probably does not hold true for Eduardo Escobar.

 

I think Verlander is a guy the Tigers wouldn't want to deal to a rival. Maybe I'm wrong.

I don't see it that way. If you're selling someone like Sano, you don't plan to compete in the next two seasons. And if you're not competing in the next two seasons, then the opposing team has to pay Sano huge money to retain him during your competition window, something they could do anyway if Sano hit free agency.

 

Very rarely do you see significant trades between teams that have overlapping windows of contention because those teams are essentially doing the same thing, which makes them mostly incompatible as trade partners. So you just make the trade that gives your team the best chance of winning given your timeline, division be damned.

[USAFChief]

I highly doubt we're at that point quite yet. At season's end, Verlander will likely have accumulated ~11 fWAR over his past three seasons.

 

Yeah, he's overpaid. Yeah, he's aging. But he's still a good pitcher and Detroit won't let that go for nothing (though I wouldn't pay much more than nothing for the rest of that contract).

 

I suspect Detroit isn't quite ready to give away Verlander, though that point is probably coming soon if Verlander ages in a typical fashion. But if he keeps performing, his value will actually rise as the contract expires.

Verlander would be their best starter now, probably next yr, and possibly the year after that.

 

Take on the money. It's only a couple years, how bad could it hurt? They're not signing a better FA, and if they do it will be 5 years, maybe 6.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Verlander would be their best starter now, probably next yr, and possibly the year after that.

 

Take on the money. It's only a couple years, how bad could it hurt? They're not signing a better FA, and if they do it will be 5 years, maybe 6.

Because if the Twins are going to spend that kind of money, I want it spent on someone like Darvish. Instead of getting ages 34-36 at $25m per season, you're getting ages 31-36 seasons at $25m per season.

 

And it costs you zero prospects to do it. If I was the Tigers, my starting asking price for Verlander would be "you pay 100% of his contract and give us Fernando Romero". I'd back down from that to maybe Jorge + Diaz and 100% of Verlander's contract but that's not a price I'd pay if I was the Twins. If the Tigers pay part of the contract, the price goes back up, maybe even Romero+.

 

Verlander is still performing at a high enough level that the Tigers have no reason to trade him right now unless the offer is good.

 

I'm not against trading some nice prospects for pitching but I'd pursue someone with legit upside under 30, not Justin Verlander. And I'd be willing to pay steeply for it to get that real upside. Verlander is simply too big a risk of sudden decline to hamstring payroll and the farm system in trade, IMO.

[USAFChief]

Because if the Twins are going to spend that kind of money, I want it spent on someone like Darvish. Instead of getting ages 34-36 at $25m per season, you're getting ages 31-36 seasons at $25m per season.

And it costs you zero prospects to do it. If I was the Tigers, my starting asking price for Verlander would be "you pay 100% of his contract and give us Fernando Romero". I'd back down from that to maybe Jorge + Diaz and 100% of Verlander's contract but that's not a price I'd pay if I was the Twins. If the Tigers pay part of the contract, the price goes back up, maybe even Romero+.

Verlander is still performing at a high enough level that the Tigers have no reason to trade him right now unless the offer is good.

I'm not against trading some nice prospects for pitching but I'd pursue someone with legit upside under 30, not Justin Verlander. And I'd be willing to pay steeply for it to get that real upside. Verlander is simply too big a risk of sudden decline to hamstring payroll and the farm system in trade, IMO.

I doubt you're getting Darvish at $25. In any case, "that kind of money" for Darvish is at least $150m. $50-something for Verlander. It's the same reason they should have been all over a Hamels trade...you can't get that level of pitcher on a short contract, signed at prices in effect 3-4 years ago.

 

I doubt the Twins are even in on the bidding. Bully for them if they are, though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I doubt you're getting Darvish at $25. In any case, "that kind of money" for Darvish is at least $150m. $50-something for Verlander. It's the same reason they should have been all over a Hamels trade...you can't get that level of pitcher on a short contract, signed at prices in effect 3-4 years ago.

I doubt the Twins are even in on the bidding. Bully for them if they are, though.

I don't think Darvish will come in much higher than $25m. He's a stutter-step below guys like Scherzer and Price, who are $30m a year pitchers.

 

In any case, I believe there are better targets than Verlander unless the Tigers are eager to move him, which I doubt they are. I don't trust Verlander to be a very good pitcher in 2018-19. He's entering his age 35 season. If you can lowball the Tigers in prospects and take the contract, sure, but the Tigers don't seem to operate that way.

[USAFChief]

The Twins think they're buyers:

 

http://www.twincities.com/2017/08/12/twins-gm-weve-placed-a-lot-of-claims-on-players-we-think-can-help-our-team/

[drjim]

The Twins think they're buyers:

 

http://www.twincities.com/2017/08/12/twins-gm-weve-placed-a-lot-of-claims-on-players-we-think-can-help-our-team/

Good to see. Hard to ignore what the team is doing now. Still think they can add a veteran dh bat and a reliever. Starter will much harder.

[crop duster]

Is that latest article a joke? Levine threw in the towel way too fast when he unloaded Garcia and Kinsler for two powerball tickets and a bag of chips, way too late to do anything meaningful now. Don't insult my intelligence by pretending otherwise. If this team stumbles into the playoffs somehow it will be in spite on Levine not due to him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Is that latest article a joke? Levine through in the towel way too fast when he unloaded Garcia and Kinsler for two powerball tickets and a bag of chips, way too late to do anything meaningful now. Don't insult my intelligence by pretending otherwise. If this team stumbles into the playoffs somehow it will be in spite on Levine not due to him.

Given this post, you'd think the Twins traded Greg Maddux and Mariano Rivera, not Jaime Garcia and Brandon Kintzler.

[crop duster]

Given this post, you'd think the Twins traded Greg Maddux and Mariano Rivera, not Jaime Garcia and Brandon Kintzler.

Draw false comparisons much?