Article: Twins Need Sagging Bats To Rev It Up

[frightwig]

 

 

The only thing I would say is that the Twins hitting is OK, but the run scoring isn't good enough. Panicking over the latter would break the former, however. The core of this team is still very young. The runs will come.

 

On the season, the Twins have four hitters with a wRC+ above 100:

 

Sano 127

Rosario 109

Grossman 108

Mauer 104

 

That's it. (Dozier and Escobar are at 99 wRC+.)

 

Rosario seems to be progressing at the plate--he's even drawing walks at a respectable rate lately--but regressing in the field; a 109 wRC+ without great defense in LF doesn't move the needle much. We know that Grossman does one thing really well--but he gives back a lot of his value in the field and from lack of power. Mauer, on the other hand, is an acceptable 1B because he plays such good defense, but he's not an essential part of the team's future.

 

Sano is really the one GOOD bat at his position, and even he tends to be streaky--he has an 89 wRC+ in the past 30 days, and had a 93 wRC+ in June. His defense is a bit of a drag on his value, too.

 

I agree that they should be patient with the young players--but, man, do they really need those kids to step it up soon, especially in the outfield. Until their corner outfielders are hitting better than 120 wRC+, and Buxton can become at least a league-average bat, I don't see the Twins having an above-average offense. And even then, the problem of replacing Dozier and getting a 1B/DH with some pop in the next couple years still remains.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Santana makes some sense. Would he be much of an upgrade over Grossman tho?

Smith being a lefty corner OF would make Rosario or Kepler redundant. What do you do with them?

 

I'd say Santana is a much better overall hitter.  His OPS is nearly 50 points higher and he has 43 XBH this season compared to Grossman's 22.  The only reason I threw Seth Smith's name out there was because of the difficulty of finding a RH power bat that won't cost $15 + million.

[gunnarthor]

Twins have 67m already set in payroll for next year, for 6 players.  And they are paying 4m for Nolasco and Park regardless. And they have a lot of arbitration raises to Gibson, Escobar, Pressley, Giminez, Recker, May, Grossman, Adrianza. Giminez could be released but I think they'd keep everyone else. As bad as Gibson is, he's a warm body and they need pitchers. Pressly? Maybe he goes but he'd probably stay. Those 7 (not counting Giminez) would probably make 13-14m? That means the other 12 players on the 25 man roster would make league minimum (6m).

 

That would leave the FO with about 15-20m to work with in FA if they keep payroll around this years total.

 

What does that get us? We probably will add a 12m AAV pitcher type. And a few more Belisle and Breslow relievers. It doesn't really give us a lot of room.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Twins have 67m already set in payroll for next year, for 6 players.  And they are paying 4m for Nolasco and Park regardless. And they have a lot of arbitration raises to Gibson, Escobar, Pressley, Giminez, Recker, May, Grossman, Adrianza. Giminez could be released but I think they'd keep everyone else. As bad as Gibson is, he's a warm body and they need pitchers. Pressly? Maybe he goes but he'd probably stay. Those 7 (not counting Giminez) would probably make 13-14m? That means the other 12 players on the 25 man roster would make league minimum (6m).

 

That would leave the FO with about 15-20m to work with in FA if they keep payroll around this years total.

 

What does that get us? We probably will add a 12m AAV pitcher type. And a few more Belisle and Breslow relievers. It doesn't really give us a lot of room.

 

why would they keep it at this level? It's not exactly high right now...

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Twins have 67m already set in payroll for next year, for 6 players.  And they are paying 4m for Nolasco and Park regardless. And they have a lot of arbitration raises to Gibson, Escobar, Pressley, Giminez, Recker, May, Grossman, Adrianza. Giminez could be released but I think they'd keep everyone else. As bad as Gibson is, he's a warm body and they need pitchers. Pressly? Maybe he goes but he'd probably stay. Those 7 (not counting Giminez) would probably make 13-14m? That means the other 12 players on the 25 man roster would make league minimum (6m).

 

That would leave the FO with about 15-20m to work with in FA if they keep payroll around this years total.

 

What does that get us? We probably will add a 12m AAV pitcher type. And a few more Belisle and Breslow relievers. It doesn't really give us a lot of room.

 

 

You'd have to figure the Pohlad's will let them spend more than this season.  Maybe that's wishful thinking, but they need to increase the payroll to at least $115 million next season.  They might be able to convince the owners to have the one year increase knowing Mauer's $23 million will be coming off the books the next season.  

[gunnarthor]

 

why would they keep it at this level? It's not exactly high right now...

It's 108m. That's pretty much the highest it's ever been. 2011 it was 113m and many here think Smith was fired in part because he wanted to keep or increase that payroll.

 

I mean, maybe the Twins get to 113 or so but I don't think we should expect that. The Pohlad family isn't going to go much higher than they have in the past.  

[70charger]

 

why would they keep it at this level? It's not exactly high right now...

 

This does seem to be a good time to spend more. The core is still cheap, and we're about to enter what should be the window of contention.

 

Also, with how significantly better the team has been this year, and with attendance being a lagging effect, they could reasonably expect more revenue next year anyway.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's 108m. That's pretty much the highest it's ever been. 2011 it was 113m and many here think Smith was fired in part because he wanted to keep or increase that payroll.

 

I mean, maybe the Twins get to 113 or so but I don't think we should expect that. The Pohlad family isn't going to go much higher than they have in the past.  

 

well argued and written, I hope you are wrong.

 

if not, this team is in serious trouble if they ever have a core worth paying.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

It's 108m. That's pretty much the highest it's ever been. 2011 it was 113m and many here think Smith was fired in part because he wanted to keep or increase that payroll.

 

I mean, maybe the Twins get to 113 or so but I don't think we should expect that. The Pohlad family isn't going to go much higher than they have in the past.  

 

I mean technically it's $108 million but you'd have to assume some of these injured players making money are all being paid by insurance.  I'm mainly referring to Perkins and Hughes.  I doubt the Pohlad's are paying for either of those contacts this season, so it's probably a lot closer to $90 to $95 million they're actually paying.

[gunnarthor]

 

I mean technically it's $108 million but you'd have to assume some of these injured players making money are all being paid by insurance.  I'm mainly referring to Perkins and Hughes.  I doubt the Pohlad's are paying for either of those contacts this season, so it's probably a lot closer to $90 to $95 million they're actually paying.

That's true. And insurance is probably why the Twins were allowed to pay Garcia's salary. Perkins is gone next year (700k buyout). Hughes is still under contract. Not sure how much insurance would cover, although it won't be 100%.

 

Basically, the Twins need the young players to start playing better but fixing the pitching staff is going to be really hard.

[Willihammer]

Not sure this insurance sidebar is relevant. Is ~20% of payroll on injured players out of the norm? Every team has injuries to deal with.

[Willihammer]

JP is on record saying 50-55% of prior year revenues will be used on payroll, right?

 

The TV deal hasn't changed (I don't think). Attendance has gone up a tick over 2016.

 

Will they gain/lose in revenue sharing?

Edited August 2, 2017 by Willihammer

[Mike Sixel]

 

JP is on record saying 50-55% of prior year revenues will be used on payroll, right?

 

The TV deal hasn't changed (I don't think). Attendance has gone up a tick over 2016.

 

Given likely revenues this season I'd expect an increase in payroll of a couple mil at most.

 

ugh. sigh.

[Willihammer]

 

 

I'd say Santana is a much better overall hitter.  His OPS is nearly 50 points higher and he has 43 XBH this season compared to Grossman's 22.  The only reason I threw Seth Smith's name out there was because of the difficulty of finding a RH power bat that won't cost $15 + million.

Santana has had ~100 more PAs than Grossman too.

I agree he'd be an upgrade over Grossman but if 2017 is any kind of indicator then it still looks pretty marginal to me for the likely $$ involved.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Not sure this insurance sidebar is relevant. Is ~20% of payroll on injured players out of the norm? Every team has injuries to deal with.

 

It's not a side bar at all?  If the two injured players mentioned, who have larger contracts, are being paid by insurance that to me would mean the actual payroll is significantly lower.  And just as Gunnarthor stated that might have been why the Pohlad's were willing to eat most of Garcia's contract.  So, it does in fact come into play when talking about the total payroll.

 

Edit:  Plus we aren't talking about every other team.  We're talking about the cheap a$$ Pohlads, so any money gained via insurance is a really big deal.

Edited August 2, 2017 by SF Twins Fan

[caninatl04]

 

From where I'm sitting, the league has figured out Kepler. He's a very good fastball hitter but can't hit a breaking ball to save his life, just like Buxton (although he can't hit fastballs either). Ditto Sano. If these are going to be "core" players for the next 5 years, they need to figure that out. Maybe they need to replace Rowson.

 

Its pretty clear through 69 PAs that Granite's a Revere type 4th outfielder. No XBH power at all,

 

Vargas turned 27 yesterday. The guy has the most awkward over-his-front-foot downward tomahawk swing I think I've ever seen from a MLB player. Cut him.

 

Park is a bust.

 

Castro's shouldn't be hitting any higher than 9.

 

Grossman doesn't have enough power or defense to start regularly. Man without a position, but maybe enough to stick around as a 5th OFer.

 

Polanco & Adrianza- someone please tell the Twins that all switch hitting middle infielder with a last name that ends in a vowel aren't automatically MLB calibre players. No punch at all.

 

Escobar- seems to have proven himself average across the board. Good enough for now.

 

Gimenez- no

Last names ending in a vowel?  I agree, too many darned Italians in our minor leagues.

[Willihammer]

 

It's not a side bar at all?  If the two injured players mentioned, who have larger contracts, are being paid by insurance that to me would mean the actual payroll is significantly lower.  And just as Gunnarthor stated that might have been why the Pohlad's were willing to eat most of Garcia's contract.  So, it does in fact come into play when talking about the total payroll.

 

Edit:  Plus we aren't talking about every other team.  We're talking about the cheap a$$ Pohlads, so any money gained via insurance is a really big deal.

They get injuries every year. That is the normal course of business for a baseball team. Last year it was Nolasco. Before that Santana was a PED suspension without pay. Morneau, Mauer, etc. Injuries to Hughes and Perkins in 2017 don't seem so far out of line with normal baseball ops that they should be accounted for in a special way. The 2018 payroll will be determined by prior year revenues, as it always is.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

They get injuries every year. That is the normal course of business for a baseball team. Last year it was Nolasco. Before that Santana was a PED suspension without pay. Morneau, Mauer, etc. Injuries to Hughes and Perkins in 2017 don't seem so far out of line with normal baseball ops that they should be accounted for in a special way. The 2018 payroll will be determined by prior year revenues, as it always is.

 

Yup, and additions and subtractions happen in season every year.  If injuries happen to players with larger contracts and they're being paid by insurance that would allow the FO to make trades for players with larger contacts.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think insurance kicks in much....but agree it is a red herring. If it does kick in much, they budget for that based on probabilities anyway.

[caninatl04]

 

Unfortunately, our OF doesn't provide much power or have the potential for it. The most you can reasonably ask for is 15-20 HRs each from these guys, maybe a few more down the road in peak years. Dozier has power but it's way too inconsistent and mostly shows up in empty base situations (only driven in 2 runs besides himself on homeruns, both times it was Chris Gimenez oddly enough). He's stated he doesn't want to hit middle of the order so he's not really compensating for Mauer's and our DH's below average production.

 

If this team is going to take a step forward offensively next year they'll have to address 1B/DH, reducing Mauer's playing time significantly. He'll make a fine parttime player, backup, and bench bat while he rides out the final year of his contract.

Earlier in the week, TV showed Dozier's BA with the bases loaded and it was somewhere around .125

[caninatl04]

Two comments:

 

1. I am giddy that the Timberwolves have become a "destination" for free agents. But I don't know if that has transferred to the Twins. It would be "nice" if the Twins could simply pick and choose FAs, but would they come?

 

2. I don't see a lot of power in the minors. Are there ANY prospects with a power rating over 50?

[Mr. Brooks]

Insurance only pays a fraction of the salary, if at all.

Some pitchers can't even get insured.

The Diamondbacks made a big offer to resign Brandon Webb several years ago, but had to retract the offer when they couldn't find an insurance company that would insure it.

 

Even when they do have insurance, it doesn't kick in until after 3 months, and even after it kicks in it only pays part of the remaining salary.

A player that misses the entire season MIGHT get 35% of his salary paid by insurance.

[jimbo92107]

Pressure is the key to winning baseball. You look for ways to apply pressure, then look for ways to apply more pressure. Sometimes individual players see a way to apply pressure, a guy like Rosario stretches a single into a double when he sees the OF lagging just a bit. Sometimes management sees a way to increase pressure by bringing in better players. 

 

Right now the Twins are in the last half of a losing season, yet their AAA and AA clubs have guys that might be able to apply more pressure, now and in the future. That is why it's so important to bring up multiple prospects and over-achievers from the minors. We need to see which of those guys is ready to apply more pressure with their bat, their legs, their arms, etc. 

 

Of course, pressure doesn't guarantee anything. Garver may whiff on his first twenty at-bats. Gonsalves may scatter baseballs like a bad shotgun. But several guys in the high minors look like they will supply more pressure per pitch, per at-bat, etc. If their form and process are good, eventually that should start affecting the results in games. Consider Berrios's latest: If one more good bat is in the lineup, maybe that guy connects. Swap the current DH for Palka, Vargas or Park. Swap the C for Garver. Eight better quality at-bats, with more power. Maybe it makes no difference this time, but over time, the extra pressure will tell. 

 

BTW, SaggingBat would make a fantastic nick for a Twins Daily commentor. I'd grab it, but I'm Jimbo.

Edited August 3, 2017 by jimbo92107

[gunnarthor]

 

Two comments:


2. I don't see a lot of power in the minors. Are there ANY prospects with a power rating over 50?

They aren't prospects but both Park and Vargas have plus power.

 

In the low minors we have a few guys who could be power bats eventually - Kiriloff, Diaz, Baddoo, Rooker

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

They aren't prospects but both Park and Vargas have plus power.

 

In the low minors we have a few guys who could be power bats eventually - Kiriloff, Diaz, Baddoo, Rooker

 

I'd add Palka to the list too, though I wouldn't really call Park and Palka much in terms of prospects anymore.  I don't think 40+ HR power though is the thing to be concerned about. I'm perfectly fine with guys that hit 20-30 as long as they can hit for average, take a walk, and play decent defense. That is far more valuable than a guy that can hit 40+ (unless of course it's Bonds, but there was only one Bonds)...  

[IaFan1]

The disappointments start with Buxton. He has made no real progress and you can't bat a player that K's as much as he does at leadoff. Granite would be ideal in that role. Next would be Kepler. He hasn't advanced from last year either. Can't hit left handed pitching. He needs to be a 20 HR guy if he isn't going to hit .280 or above. He is turning into a platoon type player. Polanco not hitting is baffling. I was sure that he was a .270 hitter at least. Dozier is miscast as a leadoff hitter and should be batting behind Sano. Thank goodness we kept Rosario. Some of the twitterites wanted to trade him for Carlos Gomez a couple years back. And honestly there are to many stretches where Sano and Dozier just don't hit. It's harder to score runs when your only two true power guys have so many down stretches. If I'm the next manager I would take a long look at Park in 2018 Spring Training. We need to add some long ball to this lineup and he is really the only guy in the system that might be able to help in that way.

[Doomtints]

 

The disappointments start with Buxton. He has made no real progress and you can't bat a player that K's as much as he does at leadoff. 

 

Buxton's WAA is 1.1. He is an above average MLB position player at age 23.  He also has the top WAR of any position player on the team.

 

Disappointing is not a word to describe Buxton.  Developing is a better fit. He will eventually pull his own with his bat, and when he does he will be the most important player on the team.

Edited August 3, 2017 by Doomtints

[Willihammer]

 

Buxton's WAA is 1.1. He is an above average MLB position player at age 23.  He also has the top WAR of any position player on the team.

How much of that WAA is tied to his offense?