Can selling now improve 2018?

[Oldgoat_MN]

The illusion that we could get something interesting for Dozier is just that, an illusion.

This year he is a below average 2B. No one is going to give up much for a guy who has an OPS in the lower half of MLB second basemen.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think if you're looking to trade a Dozier and Santana it's because you don't believe the Twins will be competitive in 2018. In that case the return you get back doesn't have to be MLB ready pitching.

 

If you think the Twins are going to be legitimate contenders next season then hold onto Dozier/Santana and try to resign Kintzler.

I don't expect Santana to be much better than replacement level next year. He's cooked.

[Mr. Brooks]

The problem is that every GM in baseball knows that Ervin isn't great and they have known all season. I see top 100 prospect names dropped on here (Sheffield for example).

 

If the positions were reversed, would anyone be trading a pitching prospect better than Gonsalves or Romero with 2nd players included (high upside low level guys)? I think everyone would say no and then point out all the reasons that people say the Twins must trade him now.

 

The market is limited with Dozier since nobody has come up with a team that logically needs to trade for a 2B. That was the problem last offseason (Dodgers were bidding against nobody) and it is the problem now.

 

The player to trade then is Escobar similar to Nunez last year. He has the position versatility to play 2B/SS/3B so he can fit into any team. He is also on a reasonable contract with a year of arb left so teams won't run into salary issues. It is selling which I am against for the most part but MI is a team strength right now and Nick Gordon should be up at some point next season. Not enough spots for everyone. It is possible that Escobar fetches a prospect that isn't dramatically lower than Santana and doesn't really impact the team much.

Why would it need to be better than Gonsalves or Romero, AND secondary pieces?

If I could get the equivalent of ONE of those guys I pull the trigger without hesitation.

Santana has been fringe 5th starter level since his hot/lucky first 5 weeks.

[Mill1634]

I'm not sure but I think it's time to find out. It was delusional to think we could contend with top teams (dodgers, astros), and if you aren't competing with them you should be preparing to compete with them. Even if it doesn't help us immediately next year it extends our window into the future.

[Vanimal46]

Per Jon Morosi on Twitter: 

"Sources: #Twins will consider moving Ervin Santana - and even the recently acquired Jaime Garcia - if team's recent struggles continue. @MLB"

[kab21]

 

Why would it need to be better than Gonsalves or Romero, AND secondary pieces?
If I could get the equivalent of ONE of those guys I pull the trigger without hesitation.
Santana has been fringe 5th starter level since his hot/lucky first 5 weeks.

But reverse the tables. Who is making that trade in the other direction? This is something that needs to be done every time a trade is proposed. Would I accept this trade as the other team?

FWIW - Justus Sheffield (a mentioned player) is in the top 100 prospects while Romero and Gonsalves are outside of the top 100. That could change in the new offseason rankings but it looks like Sheffield is a better prospect.

[Mike Sixel]

 

But reverse the tables. Who is making that trade in the other direction? This is something that needs to be done every time a trade is proposed. Would I accept this trade as the other team?

FWIW - Justus Sheffield (a mentioned player) is in the top 100 prospects while Romero and Gonsalves are outside of the top 100. That could change in the new offseason rankings but it looks like Sheffield is a better prospect.

 

except context matters too.

 

The Twins aren't deep in high end talent like the Yankees, don't have money to buy FAs if they want like the Yankees, and aren't winning as much this year (and next?) as the Yankees.

 

If I was the Yankees, I'd trade 1 minor league pitcher plus a flyer for Santana, if I thought he was a 2-4 for the next 1.5 years. 

[kab21]

 

except context matters too.

 

The Twins aren't deep in high end talent like the Yankees, don't have money to buy FAs if they want like the Yankees, and aren't winning as much this year (and next?) as the Yankees.

 

If I was the Yankees, I'd trade 1 minor league pitcher plus a flyer for Santana, if I thought he was a 2-4 for the next 1.5 years. 

But he is a fringe 5th starter according to many on here.

[gunnarthor]

 

But reverse the tables. Who is making that trade in the other direction? This is something that needs to be done every time a trade is proposed. Would I accept this trade as the other team?

FWIW - Justus Sheffield (a mentioned player) is in the top 100 prospects while Romero and Gonsalves are outside of the top 100. That could change in the new offseason rankings but it looks like Sheffield is a better prospect.

I was the one who brought up Sheffield. On mlbpipelines's updated list, he's #93. Gonsalves (75) and Romero (83) are both ahead of him but probably should be considered in the same tier - solid AA starters with questions about how they'll fit at the ML level. 

[gunnarthor]

 

But he is a fringe 5th starter according to many on here.

If you think he's a fringe fifth starter, he has no trade value.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you think he's a fringe fifth starter, he has no trade value.

 

this. I think my post was pretty clear on the "if" part.....I have no idea what any FO thinks.

 

If he's a fringe fifth starter, he has almost no value to the Twins right now either, since they have 3-4 guys in AA that could do that, maybe, and it would be nice to gather data on that readiness.

[gunnarthor]

Steve Adams on Santana and Garcia - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/trade-rumors-twins-ervin-santana-jaime-garcia.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

 

"MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Twins are at least open to the idea of moving Ervin Santana and Jaime Garcia if their recent struggles don’t turn around before the non-waiver deadline. Minnesota dropped below .500 for the first time since April after a pair of losses to the Dodgers, and the Royals are surging toward the top of the division as well. Santana has struggled over the past month and a half but would still figure to draw interest as a fairly reasonably priced rotation stabilizer, even if his ERA has never been supported by peripheral metrics. And while some may raise an eyebrow at the notion of moving Garcia, I’d point out that since the Twins took on all of the money owed to Garcia, they could offer to flip him, still pay his contract, and potentially receive a better prospect than the Huascar Ynoa, whom they traded to Atlanta to get Garcia in the first place."

[Mike Sixel]

 

Steve Adams on Santana and Garcia - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/trade-rumors-twins-ervin-santana-jaime-garcia.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

 

"MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Twins are at least open to the idea of moving Ervin Santana and Jaime Garcia if their recent struggles don’t turn around before the non-waiver deadline. Minnesota dropped below .500 for the first time since April after a pair of losses to the Dodgers, and the Royals are surging toward the top of the division as well. Santana has struggled over the past month and a half but would still figure to draw interest as a fairly reasonably priced rotation stabilizer, even if his ERA has never been supported by peripheral metrics. And while some may raise an eyebrow at the notion of moving Garcia, I’d point out that since the Twins took on all of the money owed to Garcia, they could offer to flip him, still pay his contract, and potentially receive a better prospect than the Huascar Ynoa, whom they traded to Atlanta to get Garcia in the first place."

 

I would be shocked, and impressed, if they ate money to get a better prospect back. Shocked.

[Winston Smith]

 

The illusion that we could get something interesting for Dozier is just that, an illusion.

This year he is a below average 2B. No one is going to give up much for a guy who has an OPS in the lower half of MLB second basemen.

...and the market is really small for 2B. The only playoff type team I can find that needs a 2B is the Brewers. 

[drjim]

 

The illusion that we could get something interesting for Dozier is just that, an illusion.

This year he is a below average 2B. No one is going to give up much for a guy who has an OPS in the lower half of MLB second basemen.

 

He's 12th in baseball. Games actually played do matter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He's 12th in baseball. Games actually played do matter.

Games played by players not qualified for the batting title matter too. If you set a 200 PA minimum, Dozier falls to 16th out of 37 in wRC+, and within 10% of 23rd.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=200&type=c,4,6,11,21,-1,34,35,40,41,-1,23,37,38,39,50,61,-1,111,-1,203,199,58&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

 

The larger point seems to be, Dozier doesn't represent enough of an upgrade for enough teams to be a valuable asset in trade right now. Whether he ranks 12th or top half doesn't really matter.

[drjim]

 

Games played by players not qualified for the batting title matter too. If you set a 200 PA minimum, Dozier falls to 16th out of 37 in wRC+, and within 10% of 23rd.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=200&type=c,4,6,11,21,-1,34,35,40,41,-1,23,37,38,39,50,61,-1,111,-1,203,199,58&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

The larger point seems to be, Dozier doesn't represent enough of an upgrade for enough teams to be a valuable asset in trade right now. Whether he ranks 12th or top half doesn't really matter.

 

That I agree with, not enough of an upgrade to be worth very much on the market. Partially because 2b is such a strong position at the moment.

 

But on the flip side, if the Twins managed his PAs to have him barely above 200 at the moment, he would have a significantly higher OPS. It would not make him any more valuable. This is more just a rant against the original post being a pretty meaningless way to think of his value.

[kab21]

 

If you think he's a fringe fifth starter, he has no trade value.

Tell that to everyone that makes an argument to trade him and then says he has already fallen off the cliff based on 2+ months of stats.

[jimmer]

But he is a fringe 5th starter according to many on here.

pretty sure no one has come close to saying that on this site. certainly not many have actually said that on this site. At worst I have seen people call him a #3 guy. So I dont think the word 'many' means what you think it means.

[gunnarthor]

 

pretty sure no one has come close to saying that on this site. certainly not many have actually said that on this site. At worst I have seen people call him a #3 guy. So I dont think the word 'many' means what you think it means.

In this very thread people have said he's cooked and he's a fringe fifth starter.

[old nurse]

 

In the last 20 years?

 

I mean, sure, they could add a FA starter and a DH and a RP, but have people looked at the list of FA SP?

How different would the Twins be in the standings without Ervin Santana and instead  say extending Kevin Correa? Keeping Tommy Millone?

[Mike Sixel]

 

How different would the Twins be in the standings without Ervin Santana and instead  say extending Kevin Correa? Keeping Tommy Millone?

 

I liked the ESan signing at the time. 

 

Looking at the FA list, Correa might be "good" at his peak compared to many of this upcoming options. 

[jimmer]

In this very thread people have said he's cooked and he's a fringe fifth starter.

many people have? I saw one person say he is cooked. Where is the part about fringe fifth starter and where are there many people saying that.

[old nurse]

 

 

 

Looking at the FA list, Correa might be "good" at his peak compared to many of this upcoming options. 

That is the sad reality of those advocating for a fre agent signing. There really are not that many out there that are going to be great.  Umless at least two relievers in the system come forward as dependable set up pitchers, Mejia and another minor league player step forward as dependable starters, one starting pitcher more is not going to make this team a contender.

[jimmer]

I think the days of a quality FA market are gone.

[old nurse]

 

many people have? I saw one person say he is cooked. Where is the part about fringe fifth starter and where are there many people saying that.

Markos, Nick, Kab and Brooks have all posted something to the effect of Santana not being good.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But on the flip side, if the Twins managed his PAs to have him barely above 200 at the moment, he would have a significantly higher OPS. It would not make him any more valuable. This is more just a rant against the original post being a pretty meaningless way to think of his value.

You mean, platooned him? I don't think most of the guys who passed him in my list are getting platooned, they generally just missed some time to injury (or a late call-up like Happ). And most are well above 200 PA.

 

Agreed Dozier is not "below average" as that poster stated, but he is pretty much in the average bucket right now, with few teams looking to buy from that bucket.

[gunnarthor]

 

Markos, Nick, Kab and Brooks have all posted something to the effect of Santana not being good.

Thanks, didn't feel like going to find the quotes again.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You mean, platooned him? I don't think most of the guys who passed him in my list are getting platooned, they generally just missed some time to injury (or a late call-up like Happ). And most are well above 200 PA.

Agreed Dozier is not "below average" as that poster stated, but he is pretty much in the average bucket right now, with few teams looking to buy from that bucket.

 

I said below median. Under halfway is below median. 

 

I'll check, brb....

 

Fangraphs:

12 of 22 qualified 2B in WAR. (right on median)

8th of 11 qualified in the AL (that's not median)

 

He's closer to 16h overall, than 10th overall.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Thanks Mike. Actually it was another poster that said below average.