Can selling now improve 2018?

[jorgenswest]

I am not sure that selling now can help 2018?

 

They can trade Kintzler. He will be a free agent. That can help 2018.

 

If they trade Santana, can they get a return of someone who they can count on in the middle of the rotation next year? I am not so sure. There are only three first year starting pitchers in 2017 that have over 100 innings pitched. Freeland, Montgomery and Senzatela. It doesn't seem very likely that a return of starting pitching prospects will make up for the 2018 loss of Santana.

 

I am not certain what they can get for Dozier. At one point his value was De Leon. Can the return improve the team enough to more than offset the drop off at 2B?

 

I suppose they could flip Garcia and pay his salary to get a better return than Ynoa. That would have to be a last minute deal with teams that lost out on the bigger starting pitcher prizes.

 

Selling Santana and Dozier is a tough call. The trades alone will likely have a negative impact on 2018. They could turn to free agency but they won't find anyone of Santana's capability in the range that they are paying him next year.

 

Anyone would take a trade offer that blows them away. If the Twins get that for Santana or Dozier, they take it. Otherwise, I don't think they should be actively looking to move them. They need them for 2018.

[Mike Sixel]

Refusing to trade veterans is how teams extend mediocrity. Are we even confident ESan will be good next year? What are his numbers since Mid-May?

[Vanimal46]

I think you answered your own question in the title, and that answer is no. 

Kintzler IMO won't get a return better than the production he's doing right now for the MLB team. In fact, I said in another Kintzler thread that I wouldn't hesitate giving him a 2/$12-15 MM deal this offseason with a 3rd year club option. 

The rotation also probably takes a step back next year without Santana. If a team has near-ready MLB arms, why wouldn't they just use them instead of trading for Erv? He's needed on this team next season to have an established #3 starter. 

Dozier has made the most sense to trade for 1.5 years. I don't see any contending teams trading for a 2B unfortunately. There hasn't been any significant injuries around the league to change the market from last winter.

[Mike Sixel]

btw, I too would extend Kintzler, unless blown away with an offer.

[gunnarthor]

They should probably listen on anyone. I think if Santana can get something like NYY prospect Sheffield (#93 on mlbpipeline's new list) or Adams (#62) + another non-top 100 guy ... maybe you do that. (Both Sheffield and Adams are already in AA or above it).  But I have no idea what his trade value really is. He's already worth over 3 WAR on b-r but as others note, fip doesn't like him as much. He's very cheap for a starting pitcher and he has an option year to boot. He's old.  He's well regarded in the game. He's an all-star and a smart pitcher who seems to enjoy mentoring Berrios. I dunno. Is that player worth a top 100 prospect + a bit more? Is that player worth more? Less? No idea. Ideally, there'd be a bidding war.

[markos]

 

btw, I too would extend Kintzler, unless blown away with an offer.

Do you know if that is even an option right now? Seems like Kintzler would be better off trying to get to free agency since he is so close.

[puckstopper1]

 

Do you know if that is even an option right now? Seems like Kintzler would be better off trying to get to free agency since he is so close.

 

I asked the same thing a few weeks back.  Hopefully the Twins have an idea from Kintzler and his agent what his expectations are for next season.  If they are outrageous, then the Twins should try and trade him rather than have him walk and get nothing in return.

[Tomj14]

I can't see how trading Dozier or Santana, make us better in 2018. Kintzler maybe?

Trading Dozier weakens offensive, since we have nobody ready to replace him there. Trading Santana weakens the starting pitchers.

[Tomj14]

 

I am ready for the Twins to trade both Ervin Santana and Brian Dozier. Those are really the only two assets they have that would bring back anything of value. I know the starting rotation has been abysmal but I am ready to be done with veterans pitching and to let the kids in AA and the best pitcher take their licks and beatings now. As fun as this had been for the overachievement of the squad. Ready for Polanco to take over for Dozier, and for Granite or Grossman to move into the leadoff spot.

 

Waiting on moving Dozier to the offseason would be a mistake. He is the one asset that could bring back near ready major league pitching. I think Ervin Santana would fetch something good in return also. I don't see how this team makes the postseason with this leaky bullpen and to fix the leaky bullpen now would take giving up some of the best prospects the organization has.  This team needs to move the two good veterans it has to get something back and move it forward.

Kintzler can be moved too, if he wants to wait to offseason or free agency to talk contract. You might as well get something for him while he has a little bit of value left.

I think if the front office looks the team on the field in the mirror they will see to many holes to make a post season run.

Dozier after hitting 40 homers couldn't return a near ready starter, why would he now?

[Vanimal46]

 

They should probably listen on anyone. I think if Santana can get something like NYY prospect Sheffield (#93 on mlbpipeline's new list) or Adams (#62) + another non-top 100 guy ... maybe you do that. (Both Sheffield and Adams are already in AA or above it).  But I have no idea what his trade value really is. He's already worth over 3 WAR on b-r but as others note, fip doesn't like him as much. He's very cheap for a starting pitcher and he has an option year to boot. He's old.  He's well regarded in the game. He's an all-star and a smart pitcher who seems to enjoy mentoring Berrios. I dunno. Is that player worth a top 100 prospect + a bit more? Is that player worth more? Less? No idea. Ideally, there'd be a bidding war.

 

I think that's an important piece to consider as well. The human element of it that we as fans don't know. Obviously Berrios has taken huge strides this year and trending towards being a top of the rotation pitcher. Has it been Ervin's guidance that's helped him the most? The pitching coach? If Ervin were to be traded, how would that affect Berrios? These are all questions we don't know, but the FO should know and take into consideration.  

 

[markos]

 

The rotation also probably takes a step back next year without Santana. If a team has near-ready MLB arms, why wouldn't they just use them instead of trading for Erv? He's needed on this team next season to have an established #3 starter. 

The case for trading Santana is:
1) It is highly likely that his 2018 performance (4.50-5.00 ERA, 180 innings) is replaceable this offseason in free agency for similar cost.
2) There are playoff teams that need pitching depth, in particular teams that are riding on young arms that may need help getting to and through the playoffs. Brewers and Yankees seem like best fits to me, but maybe the Nationals depending on how Strasburg's injury situation shakes out.
3) While acquiring MLB-ready pitching would be nice, the Twins don't necessarily need to trade for prospects that will be ready in 2018. Instead, they could just trade for lower-level prospects that they could use as trade chips in the offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do you know if that is even an option right now? Seems like Kintzler would be better off trying to get to free agency since he is so close.

 

How would I know? I was saying what I'd try to do. I think teams know almost to the dollar what Kintzler is likely to get this off season, as does his agent. It's certainly possible he waits, it's also possible they sign him. If I was teh GM, I'd be trying to sign him, unless blown away.

[bird]

Trying to manage and manipulate a timeline when making trades is dicey. So many other variables come into play that end up throwing off the timeline anyway. I kind of see timeline-sensitive transactions to be limited almost exclusively to postseason FA moves, where you try to fill very specific holes and create no holes. As others have said, it's a stretch to think that a deadline trade of a player who is producing today will net you a prospect who will give you similar production the following year to the player you no longer have.

 

Things go awry unless they don't. Prospects have to emerge and surprise to compensate for unanticipated injuries and performance fall-offs. Think of how much different this year would be for the Twins if May, Burdi, Chargois, Jay, and Reed had followed the timeline, and if Perkins had stayed healthy..

[mlhouse]

Depends on who you trade and what return you get for them, obviously.

 

Trading Joe Mauer would improve the team, freeing up his money to spend on pitching and allowing better flexibility with our roster.  But no one is going to trade for him.

 

I am one of the biggest advocate of stop pretending that this season was anything other than a rebuilding year, but even I would not have traded Dozier for the low ball offers they had this offseason.  IF you do not get a decent return for him, just let him play it out.  Same with Santana and to a lesser extent Kinzler.  

 

I think that the team should use the remainder of the season trying to get evaluations of a few prospects like Garver, Hurlbut, and Siegers, and perhaps Gonsalves.  Lets see if one or more of those guys can play and then this offseason plug the holes to start a step towards contention.

[bird]

 

How would I know? I was saying what I'd try to do. I think teams know almost to the dollar what Kintzler is likely to get this off season, as does his agent. It's certainly possible he waits, it's also possible they sign him. If I was teh GM, I'd be trying to sign him, unless blown away.

 

 

Right. The Twins can afford to pay Kintzler market rates, and he'd probably take a tad less to avoid disrupting a good thing and moving his family again.

[markos]

 

How would I know? I was saying what I'd try to do. I think teams know almost to the dollar what Kintzler is likely to get this off season, as does his agent. It's certainly possible he waits, it's also possible they sign him. If I was teh GM, I'd be trying to sign him, unless blown away.

I see. Sorry, my comment came across harsher than I wanted. Generally speaking, I assume every player will try to get to free agency when they are this close. I thought maybe you had heard recent news/reports/rumors that he was open to an extension.

[nicksaviking]

I think it all depends on how you believe Ervin Santana will perform next year. 

 

His peripheral numbers indicate he's a below average pitcher. I'm of the opinion that you could get a couple of young guys that can contribute in 2018 and make up for his loss and then some.

 

Hey, I'd be interested if the Twins and Dodgers wanted to swap tonight's starters. I'd like Brock Stewart (plus something extra).

[nicksaviking]

 

Right. The Twins can afford to pay Kintzler market rates, and he'd probably take a tad less to avoid disrupting a good thing and moving his family again.

 

There's always a window after the season where the team can negotiate before free agency opens.

 

Not that he'd be worth it, but it would be at this time that the team can wield the threat of a qualifying offer as well, though with the change in the QO it's likely less threatening now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I see. Sorry, my comment came across harsher than I wanted. Generally speaking, I assume every player will try to get to free agency when they are this close. I thought maybe you had heard recent news/reports/rumors that he was open to an extension.

 

fair. No, I'm not breaking any news here.....I'm not connected at all. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think it all depends on how you believe Ervin Santana will perform next year. 

 

His peripheral numbers indicate he's a below average pitcher. I'm of the opinion that you could get a couple of young guys that can contribute in 2018 and make up for his loss and then some.

 

Hey, I'd be interested if the Twins and Dodgers wanted to swap tonight's starters. I'd like Brock Stewart (plus something extra).

 

I'd trade ESan for Stewart straight up right now. I don't think the Dodgers do that deal.

[gunnarthor]

I think we're a little low on Santana here. Stewart is a 25 year old near journeyman at this point who has dealt with injuries and might be a bullpen arm at this level. I'd certainly want a better deal than him.

[Danchat]

I would trade Santana now if I could, depending on the return, of course. If teams aren't down on him after his lousy June-July and offer a good package, I'd pull the trigger. I'm not convinced he'll be great in 2018.

 

I would try to trade Dozier but nobody wants a 2B, so that'd probably be fruitless.

 

I don't know if Kintzler would fetch much, so I'd just try to extend him. Trading Abad last season got us basically nothing (though the Twins would likely get something a little better than Pat Light for Kintzler). He'd only be a rental for a contender and thus not cost very much.

 

But most of the trades will probably happen over the offseason and not in the coming days.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think we're a little low on Santana here. Stewart is a 25 year old near journeyman at this point who has dealt with injuries and might be a bullpen arm at this level. I'd certainly want a better deal than him.

 

Ya, I may have jumped the gun.

 

journeyman? 

[Rosterman]

I'm not sure if the phone is ringing off the hook for any of these guys with offers that make you say...yes.

 

Kintzler will be a free agent. You could probably get a prospect or two, low-level. Look for weakness in your system and do it. UNLESS YOU ARE WILLING TO blow him away with a $12-15 two-year offer.

 

Same with Santana. At best, it frees up payroll to go after a possible better free agent in the off-season.

 

Sadly, don't see anyone clamoring for Dozier at this point. The Twins would be wise to invest in Dozier for 2-3 years IF they think he is a viable alternative to anything in the system (probably is, and he could always switch to DH at some point) and if they can get him for 2-3 years at less than $10 million a year. Ask yourself...if Dozier was a free agent, what would other teams be offering him in salary? Hopefully better than, say, Plouffe. But...you never know.

 

Where the Twins have to watch out is that they will be dealing for the 40-45th man on most team rosters, or someone promising. You have to avoid people who will be out of options going into 2018. You might even have to avoid any number of names that need to be protected on the 40-man, period, unless you egt someone much better than your Top 30 prospects in return (a possibly for Ervin).

 

But we are seeing our worst nightmare. The Twins are competitive, but who and what are they getting. Kansas City is actually looking like they want the division and making some quality moves. Cleveland is two pieces away and have to do something if they want to be at the post-season dining table.If they do, and the Twins continue to stand pat with just the Garcia (and Colon) move, they might as well play for 2018 and let's see what we can cobble together from the system, although the innings limits on guys like Romero, Gonsalves and maybe Jorge will hurt. Instead we get to showcase Slegers and Eades and give Dillon Gee another shot, as well as any of the AAAA free agents that still haven't pitched up here (Yohan Pino? Melville? Heston?)

 

And, in turn, you want to see if you can get anything, then, for Garcia and Santiago, as long as you ae along for the ride. Waiver wire August, where you shed salary and maybe get a very minor prospect in return.

 

On a side note: Melotakis dropped off the Top Prospects list.

[Mike Sixel]

UNLESS YOU ARE WILLING TO blow him away with a $12-15 two-year offer.

 

? that's hardly blowing him away, unless you mean 12MM per year. 

[Vanimal46]

Yep. $6 MM a year is the going rate for average to good RP in FA. 

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Yep. $6 MM a year is the going rate for average to good RP in FA. 

 

I'd guess after the last 18 months, he and his agent don't see him as average. And as much as I lament the lack of strikeouts, he probably isn't.

 

I'm probably crazy, but I bet he can get 3/30 on the free agent market if he finishes the year the way he started it. Reliever prices really started trending upward lately. What he's doing now really isn't much different than what he was doing in Milwaukee in 2013-14. He's built up a bit of a track record excluding whatever the heck happened in 2015.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd guess after the last 18 months, he and his agent don't see him as average. And as much as I lament the lack of strikeouts, he probably isn't.

 

I'm probably crazy, but I bet he can get 3/30 on the free agent market if he finishes the year the way he started it. Reliever prices really started trending upward lately. What he's doing now really isn't much different than what he was doing in Milwaukee in 2013-14. He's built up a bit of a track record excluding whatever the heck happened in 2015.

 

Agreed, hence my question......

[Vanimal46]

 

I'd guess after the last 18 months, he and his agent don't see him as average. And as much as I lament the lack of strikeouts, he probably isn't.

 

I'm probably crazy, but I bet he can get 3/30 on the free agent market if he finishes the year the way he started it. Reliever prices really started trending upward lately. What he's doing now really isn't much different than what he was doing in Milwaukee in 2013-14. He's built up a bit of a track record excluding whatever the heck happened in 2015.

 

You know, now that I'm looking at his production compared to the projected FAs this off-season, maybe 3/30 isn't that crazy. The biggest question mark he had is can he keep up what he's doing with such a low K%, and he's done it for 2+ years now. 

I should probably bump up my expectations to 2/$15-18 MM with a club option to make it 3/30. 

[gman]

We have waited for years for the Twins management to trade veterans and rebuild the system. Terry Ryan sat on his hands and got properly chastized for it. Always acting as if we were 1 second rate starter or reliever away from a good team. Current management seems to be followiing the same worn out route. Who are they trying to kid?

 

Our current veterans become burdens next year if not this.

 

Dozier has no position flexibility at this point other than perhaps 1st base and DH. His  fielding has continued to fade and basically he's a mediocre fielding second baseman with 25 homers and 245 average. Nice, but there are many in the league better. The Twins have to find someone to fill ths position  by the end of next year. Will he be more tradeable a year from now? Basically next year he's blocking the future at this position whoever that is. Will he be happy sitting on the bench the end of next year? He's not a utility type player. Trade value not much.

 

 Ditto for Mauer who is not tradeable for anything but will occupy a roster spot and can also only play 1 spot.

 

Kinzlers is tradeable. If we want to try and resign him in 2 months and he's willing he wouldn't have to move his family and could play for a title contender in the meantime.

 

Santana is tradeable. Not for as much as last winter or even 2 months ago. But we could get something. We can add some single A high upside type. Won't help next year. But next year will be another tryout camp for pitching.

 

Not much else. Grossman and Escobar?

 

I'm tired of this get by crap. There are many teams passing us by while we are afraid to build our own pipeline. The top teams right now got there by trading their vets while we continue trading for shortterm vets at the deadline. Because we have a 500 record in a weak division? Oh please.