Article: Tigers 6, Twins 3: Bad Santana

[Tom Froemming]

Ervin Santana lasted just 3.1 innings, and it took him 95 pitches to get that far into the ballgame. The Twins couldn’t dig themselves out of the hole, but the loss didn’t cloud an exciting night at Target Field in which Tom Kelly’s statue was unveiled and the 1987 reunion weekend kicked off.Win Expectancy & Top 5 Plays Per WPA (via Fangraphs)

Download attachment: WinEx721.png

Download attachment: TopPlays721.png

Santana just never seemed to be pitching with the count in his favor, and ended the evening with his shortest start of the season. Victor Martinez did the most damage, slugging a solo homer in the second before blasting a two-run bomb in the fourth.

 

This was Ervin’s 20th start of the year. He has given up two runs or fewer in 13 starts. He has given up five runs or more in seven starts. There is no in-between, he’s either been great or ghastly.

 

Zack Granite had a great game all around. He was 2-for-4, got his first career stolen base, scored a run and had an outfield assist. Ehire Adrianza, who’s getting more and more starts at shortstop of late, had a nice two-out, two-run single.

Miguel Sano was 2-for-4 with an RBI and a run. The only extra-base hit the team could muster was a Joe Mauer double.

 

Matt Belisle was the first man out of the bullpen, and he was excellent. Really. He pitched 2.2 scoreless innings, gave up just one hit and struck out three hitters. He threw 36 pitches, which was the second time this season he broke 30. The last time Belisle had thrown more than 36 pitches was May 26, 2015.

 

Belisle hit a low point on June 11 when he gave up four runs to the Giants, seeing his ERA balloon to 8.59. In his 14 appearances since, the 37-year-old has given up five runs over 17.2 innings, just one of which was earned. He has a 0.51 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over that span.

 

What’s been the difference? Well, I’m sure it’s a combination of things, but he's clearly made adjustments. One thing I had noticed is that he’d been relying less on his slider and deploying his curve ball more frequently of late. Here’s a breakdown of Belisle’s pitch usage by month last season with Washington. Notice how he leaned more and more on his slider as the year progressed:

Download attachment: Belisle2016.jpeg

And here is a breakdown of this year. Notice how he has gradually gone away from throwing as many sliders:

Download attachment: Belisle2017.jpeg

In April, Belise threw 77 sliders and just 15 curve balls, in June that split was 54 to 28. But here's the weird thing, tonight he threw a ton of sliders, 18. Exactly half of his pitches. So maybe it's simply being less predictable and using a more diverse mix of pitches has helped Belise better keep hitters off balance.

 

Postgame With Santana

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Pen721.png

Saturday

Twins (Kyle Gibson) vs. Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann), 6:10 pm CT

 

Zimmermann is coming off a quality start, but over his past four appearances he’s given up 15 earned runs in 19.1 innings (6.98 ERA). In 10 starts on the road this year, the right-hander has just one win, a 6.29 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. He’s held Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer to a combined .217 average (5-for-23) with no extra base hits or walks.

 

What can you say about Gibson at this point? We’ve seen him for 115 starts. He is what he is. Over his last five starts against Detroit, Gibby has yielded a 5.74 ERA with 19 strikeouts and 12 walks over 26.2 innings. Current Tigers hitters have a .267/.359/.398 (.756 OPS) line off Gibson.

 

Click here to view the article

[HitInAPinch]

They may be getting older, but the Tigers are still damn tough.

 

 

[mikelink45]

Every good starter is going to have a bad game, lets hope tonight a bad starter will have a good game.  

 

Adrianza is doing so well both in the field and at bat that it is hard to see Polanco getting more than a couple starts per week for now.

 

I am impressed with Sanos hitting.  I know he can get HRs, but the fact that he is also getting his share of singles and doubles is really impressive and makes him a much more dangerous hitter.

[Mr. Brooks]

Unfortunately we've seen a lot of bad Santana since his hot first 5 weeks.

[Tom Froemming]

I forgot to mention Eddie Rosario drew two more walks last night, extending his career high to 18. He came into the year with a dreadful walk rate of 3.3 percent, but it's up to 5.7 this season. He's got a .324 OBP. 

[gman]

This start won't help Santana's trade value.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Breslow gave up an insurance run too. Really inexplicable that he is back/still on this team...

[Cap'n Piranha]

At this point, you can't really count on Santana to give you 5-6 ace-level performances in the playoffs. He's just not performing as a 1 right now. This team, while fun, is not ready to compete in the playoffs. I hope they prove me wrong, but if they do, I hope it's done organically. Next year is the year we start getting serious.

[bluechipper]

 

This start won't help Santana's trade value.

It's a good thing it doesn't matter then.

[bluechipper]

 

At this point, you can't really count on Santana to give you 5-6 ace-level performances in the playoffs. He's just not performing as a 1 right now. This team, while fun, is not ready to compete in the playoffs. I hope they prove me wrong, but if they do, I hope it's done organically. Next year is the year we start getting serious.

Just for perspective, if Berrios qualified, and he's pretty close, the Twins would have 2 pitchers in the top 10 AL ERA leaders.

 

There's basically only 2 starters in the AL you're really worried about going against.

[drjim]

Breslow gave up an insurance run too. Really inexplicable that he is back/still on this team...

The only truly inexplicable thing with this front office. I would really like to hear an explanation.

[Rosterman]

At first, I am aghast when the front office talks of Ervin Santana's inconsistency. The guy who have three more wins, perhaps, if the bullpen performed correctly more often than not and if the offense would gets its act together, and that is NOT taking into account last season.

 

And then I tell myself "that is why" he should be dangled as trade bait, but if the Twins did trade him, people would shout and heads would be asked to roll, but still...is he going to be better than he has this past year or worse...and when will the downslide happen. If it IS happening, then he still has one more start to increase his trade value, or maybe he does want to work out his contract with the Twins and see if the Twins can be magical and make the playoffs with 83-84 victories in the division.

 

But still, every pitcher is going to have BAD games, and Ervin is still a .500 pitcher with a 4.00 ERA, especially if pitching on a bad team. Sh he should be applauded, everyone should be gttateful that he is performing better than expected, and save the inconsistent remarks for folks like Gibson and Santiago.

[yarnivek1972]

At first, I am aghast when the front office talks of Ervin Santana's inconsistency. The guy who have three more wins, perhaps, if the bullpen performed correctly more often than not and if the offense would gets its act together, and that is NOT taking into account last season.

 

And then I tell myself "that is why" he should be dangled as trade bait, but if the Twins did trade him, people would shout and heads would be asked to roll, but still...is he going to be better than he has this past year or worse...and when will the downslide happen. If it IS happening, then he still has one more start to increase his trade value, or maybe he does want to work out his contract with the Twins and see if the Twins can be magical and make the playoffs with 83-84 victories in the division.

 

But still, every pitcher is going to have BAD games, and Ervin is still a .500 pitcher with a 4.00 ERA, especially if pitching on a bad team. Sh he should be applauded, everyone should be gttateful that he is performing better than expected, and save the inconsistent remarks for folks like Gibson and Santiago.

I'm not sure I would call Santiago (at least as a Twin) or Gibson incinsistent. They have been consistently bad. The good outings are the outliers.