Escobar

[jorgenswest]

Is Escobar worthy of more starts at SS? With offense above league average thus far and defense for his career right at league average (by UZR), does he give the Twins a better chance to win? We have seen solid offense and league average defense from him before. There is a reason to believe he can keep it going.

[hybridbear]

 

Is Escobar worthy of more starts at SS? With offense above league average thus far and defense for his career right at league average (by UZR), does he give the Twins a better chance to win? We have seen solid offense and league average defense from him before. There is a reason to believe he can keep it going.

How does he compare to Polanco in these categories? How does Escobar fare against LHP vs RHP and how does Polanco fare against LHP vs RHP?

 

How is Escobar's defense at 3B or 2B vs SS? I feel like he's made quite a few mistakes at 3B this year where I've watched balls pop out of his glove.

[drock2190]

No, this year is still about development. Polanco has improved his defense and cut down on his strikeouts. The hits will come, he is just in a little slump.

[stringer bell]

Ummm, I hope that the Twins keep him in the lineup and that they cashier him for something like what they got for Núñez. He's been a good player for the Twins, and this year is probably an injury (or big slump) from playing almost every day. However, he's not the defender that Adrianza is and he's not really speedy, so he doesn't check that many boxes as a utility infielder.

[Willihammer]

Yes, definitely. Escobar will strikeout more but I think his contact is so much louder that its worth it. Polanco's barely getting balls into the outfield.

[jorgenswest]

I don't think there is anything in the data that suggests that Polanco will be the better fielder or hitter the remainder of the season or next year.

 

Escobar this year is matching what we saw in 2014 and 2015. A little above league average with the bat and average play at SS. Last year might be the outlier due to his injury.

 

With Polanco, looking at data only is difficult. Over 2016-2017 his defense numbers don't look good but the sample even with both years combined is small. By eye, he seems improved with the glove. His bat does not have much pop this year as shown by his ISO and exit velocities compared to Escobar.

 

If I were Molitor, I might play match ups. No way to do that looking at data we have in splits. Not near the sample necessary. He would need to go by what his staff sees or data they might have not publicly available. Adrianza probably has the best glove. Escobar might have the better bat. Polanco the most upside.

[Mike Sixel]

I feel Escobar is undervalued, because he was not previously considered a "real" prospect. It's hard to change an image.

[DaveW]

They should trade him immediately for either a legit #3/#4 starter with at least another year under contract/control or an 8th inning guy (ditto)

 

The Twins need arms big time, and I tend to think that polanco is prob the future at SS anyways.

 

Such a fun problem to have though!!!

[Bark's Lounge]

Escobar is going to get his playing time no matter what, not full time, but more than your typical back-up. He is a good player. Ride him while he is hot, because he is definitely that right now.

[yarnivek1972]

Sell high. Just like Nunez. He isn't close to the player that Nunez was when he was traded and he was controllable for longer. So he won't bring as much back. Maybe a reliever prospect or a long shot starter prospect. Polanco deserves to start. It's not like he's doing that badly.

[jorgenswest]

I feel Escobar is undervalued, because he was not previously considered a "real" prospect. It's hard to change an image.

Do you think the Twins undervalue him? Other teams? Fans?

 

I hope the Twins don't pay any attention to prospect lists or talk. I doubt prospect status written by folks outside baseball would have any impact in trading him to another team. Escobar sets his value with his performance.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do you think the Twins undervalue him? Other teams? Fans?

I hope the Twins don't pay any attention to prospect lists or talk. I doubt prospect status written by folks outside baseball would have any impact in trading him to another team. Escobar sets his value with his performance.

 

every manager ever in every business, every person in every relationship, has biases based on previous data and opinions. It's hard wired into our brains. None of that implies the Twins are looking at those lists, but it is clear from their actions that they feel he's at best a backup. I'm saying that partly informed by their earlier opinions of him, just like in every other facet of life. Once there is a belief, it takes time/effort to over come that belief. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

So now we've gone from advocating the immediate release of Escobar to trading him for a starting pitcher.

 

Reality lays somewhere between those two opinions. Escobar is a nice bench guy with a decent bat. A fringe starter if you're in a pickle. His value isn't very high in trade unless the Twins find someone at the deadline with a weak spot in their lineup, much like Nunez last year with the Giants.

[John Kelsey]

 

Yes, definitely. Escobar will strikeout more but I think his contact is so much louder that its worth it. Polanco's barely getting balls into the outfield.

 

That's my issue with Polanco.

 

He is lauded for always making contact, but he rarely hits the ball hard. 

[jorgenswest]

So now we've gone from advocating the immediate release of Escobar to trading him for a starting pitcher.

 

Reality lays somewhere between those two opinions. Escobar is a nice bench guy with a decent bat. A fringe starter if you're in a pickle. His value isn't very high in trade unless the Twins find someone at the deadline with a weak spot in their lineup, much like Nunez last year with the Giants.

I only see the long view and haven't participated in the trade or release discussion.

 

His numbers in 2014, 2015 and this year are more than adequate to put him in the middle of the group of starting shortstops in the major leagues. Slightly above league average bat and average defense at SS hasn't been easy to find. The question he needed to answer this year was whether last year was the aberration due to injury or was it 2014 and 2015. Seems like 2016 might have been the outlier. The 2014-2015 Escobar is starting SS material.

[bluechipper]

Polanco should get the majority of the starts. He's the better fielder, and I think he's a similar hitter to Escobar, but he's got the potential to be much better.

[blindeke]

Playing Escobar at DH should be against the rules.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I only see the long view and haven't participated in the trade or release discussion.

His numbers in 2014, 2015 and this year are more than adequate to put him in the middle of the group of starting shortstops in the major leagues. Slightly above league average bat and average defense at SS hasn't been easy to find. The question he needed to answer this year was whether last year was the aberration due to injury or was it 2014 and 2015. Seems like 2016 might have been the outlier. The 2014-2015 Escobar is starting SS material.

I wasn't pointing the finger any anyone specifically, just chuckling at the huge swing in opinions after Eduardo went on a tear.

 

I've always liked Escobar and thought he received something of a bad shake from Twins fans. I think he's a pretty good player but he hasn't put it together for an entire season yet... in his defense, he hasn't received a legit shot at an entire season, either.

 

But he's kinda getting up there in age for a guy who hasn't put together more than ~450 plate appearances in a season. I just don't see anyone giving up much for him, though getting another Mejia is a possibility if the Twins decide to trade him (which seems like a pretty bad idea today, as Polanco is scuffling and the Twins can really use the insurance Escobar provides the infield).

[Bark's Lounge]

The Twins are winning right now. Will that last? Who knows, but it certainly could. Winning teams that make a run in the playoffs need good players off the bench.

 

Escobar has good pop in his bat and can play 3B, SS, 2B, and OF in a pinch. From all accounts he is a great clubhouse guy, which probably makes him one of the leaders of this squad. He has to be one of longest tenured Twins players. When the Twins traded Liriano for him from what I remember it was a blow to the Whitesox clubhouse and they faltered (IMO players need to buck up in that situation).

 

Your not going to get much for him if you trade him, but if the Twins keep winning, Escobar is an important part of this team. Around the league, he might not have a ton of value, but he does to the Twins. Good role players are hard to come by.

 

The Twins will have to give up some Shiny Silver Dollars in the minors to acquire effective MLB pitching.

[yarnivek1972]

I would leave Polanco as the general everyday SS with Escobar getting a game a week at SS, 2B and 3B, plus a game or two at DH while he remains hot. Grossman can take most of the rest of the DH ABs, plays 2-3 days in the OF. Vargas is lowest performer of the 3, particularly against LH pitching so he gets a game a week at 1B plus a game or two at DH. Basically we have 3 guys who are primarily DHs that can play in the field at a roughly average level - Grossman, Escobar and Vargas. 2 of the 3 should be in the lineup most games, 1 of the 3 the other games. Ride the hot bats. Right now, that's Escobar and Grossman.

2 weeks, heck ONE week ago Escobar was hitting .220. Over the long haul, the team is going to get more productivity from Vargas. He's simply a more powerful, more dangerous hitter. The problem with "riding the hot bat" is that there will inevitibly be a 3-4 game period where that bat has cooled but the manager hasn't made the adjustment yet. Better off sticking with a set lineup and an established rotation for the reserves.

[DaveW]

The Twins are winning right now. Will that last? Who knows, but it certainly could. Winning teams that make a run in the playoffs need good players off the bench.

 

Escobar has good pop in his bat and can play 3B, SS, 2B, and OF in a pinch. From all accounts he is a great clubhouse guy, which probably makes him one of the leaders of this squad. He has to be one of longest tenured Twins players. When the Twins traded Liriano for him from what I remember it was a blow to the Whitesox clubhouse and they faltered (IMO players need to buck up in that situation).

 

Your not going to get much for him if you trade him, but if the Twins keep winning, Escobar is an important part of this team. Around the league, he might not have a ton of value, but he does to the Twins. Good role players are hard to come by.

 

The Twins will have to give up some Shiny Silver Dollars in the minors to acquire effective MLB pitching.

Good points.

 

Though on the flip side, all of the above (other than the winning team aspect) could have been said about Nunez last year, and he netted us a guy in Mejia who certainly has promise as a SP and has shown some flashes (though has struggled his share as well)

 

Basically: you never know what the trade value of a guy is until you trade him.

 

All it takes is a contender to lose a 2B, 3B or SS

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Good points.

Though on the flip side, all of the above (other than the winning team aspect) could have been said about Nunez last year, and he netted us a guy in Mejia who certainly has promise as a SP and has shown some flashes (though has struggled his share as well)

Basically: you never know what the trade value of a guy is until you trade him.

All it takes is a contender to lose a 2B, 3B or SS

I concede that most certainly.

[yarnivek1972]

Good points.

 

Though on the flip side, all of the above (other than the winning team aspect) could have been said about Nunez last year, and he netted us a guy in Mejia who certainly has promise as a SP and has shown some flashes (though has struggled his share as well)

 

Basically: you never know what the trade value of a guy is until you trade him.

 

All it takes is a contender to lose a 2B, 3B or SS

Pretty sure Escobar isn't going to be an all star. Nunez was last year. Maybe he wasn't a typical all star but he was hitting around .300 and among the league leaders in SB.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Good points.

Though on the flip side, all of the above (other than the winning team aspect) could have been said about Nunez last year, and he netted us a guy in Mejia who certainly has promise as a SP and has shown some flashes (though has struggled his share as well)

Basically: you never know what the trade value of a guy is until you trade him.

All it takes is a contender to lose a 2B, 3B or SS

...but, the Twins are going good right now and if it keeps going late into the season, they need to acquire assets for the stretch run, instead of giving them up.

[Old Twins Cap]

Nunez had speed and could steal bases, plus had versatility on defense.  His bat played up, but he didn't take walks.

 

Escobar has good pop, but it's sporadic and he is streaky, and strikes out more, and he's not that fast.

 

But Escobar is a "clubhouse guy", a glue guy and keeps everyone in it together.

 

Adrianza is a true Major League professional, always ready, with speed, great glove, heady, not much pop.

 

Polanco, I'm sorry, but when he barehanded that ball the other night on a dead run and gunned out a Mariner, he's a player.  There are no issues with his bat, IMHO.  He's got pop and speed. He's young, he's a gamer, I think you give him every opportunity.

 

You got three guys and two positions (SS and utility guy), with the potential that you trade Dozier.  With Gordon, Vielma, Palacios and potentially the best player of all, Royce Lewis lurking.

 

I don't know what to do, but the Twins should do something.  And, happily, I like how the FO is going about business.

 

 

[h2oface]

Definitely! Play them while they are hot, and don't wait. It won't last that long, probably, anyway.

[DaveW]

...but, the Twins are going good right now and if it keeps going late into the season, they need to acquire assets for the stretch run, instead of giving them up.

Oh agreed 100%

 

But if the choice to bring in pitching help was between trading Escobar or a "decent" prospect or two, I'd maybe lean towards Escobar. Just my opinion.

 

But I wouldn't mind giving up any of the non elite prospects as well, when you have a chance to make the playoffs you need to "go" for it, I'm not saying sell the farm, but just make a couple moves to help things.

 

But, these are all GOOD problems to have

 

Much more fun then the twins being 15 games out already and discussing how everyone should be dealt!

[beetlebum71]

Escobar does this every year. He'll have a 2 or 3 week stretch where he looks like the real deal at the plate and ends up bumping his whole season numbers a bunch. Over the long haul, he is going to put up an OPS with .750 upside and .630 downside with decent defense at all 3 spots he plays. He seems like a good clubhouse guy, and appears to be someone who understands his role. Teams need guys like that. Don't trade him, but don't try to make him more than he is.

[diehardtwinsfan]

This is the 3rd season where Escobar has done something like this, and just last year we were ready to hand him a starting job because of 2015... last year was ruined by injuries, not ineffectiveness.

 

I think selling high would be a mistake here, because there is a decent chance that Escobar really is this guy.  I think the prudent move would be to trade Dozier this July, not Esco.

 

Escobar can hold a place till Gordon is ready and quite possibly be flipped for a nice return at that point too.  Polanco hasn't wowed the world, but he's shown he belongs and should get better. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This is the 3rd season where Escobar has done something like this, and just last year we were ready to hand him a starting job because of 2015... last year was ruined by injuries, not ineffectiveness.

 

I think selling high would be a mistake here, because there is a decent chance that Escobar really is this guy.  I think the prudent move would be to trade Dozier this July, not Esco.

 

Escobar can hold a place till Gordon is ready and quite possibly be flipped for a nice return at that point too.  Polanco hasn't wowed the world, but he's shown he belongs and should get better. 

This would be my first plan to shore up pitching. If you can't move Dozier, I'd consider the opposite: moving Gordon and Gonsalves/Romero for either an established MLB pitcher or someone on the verge of graduating to MLB. The latter would be more difficult, as a team that wants Gordon is unlikely to give up a pitching prospect.