Article: Twins Draft Blayne Enlow, Seven More

[Vanimal46]

 

From Wikipedia:


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tristan_(name)

 

This makes a ton of sense... The ladies and some men were swooning over Legends of the Fall Brad Pitt. And who could blame them?! 

[amjgt]

 

Anyone have a list of best remaining players in the draft?

 

From MLB.com

 

Here are the top 10 players -- including eight prep players -- left from the Top 200 Draft prospects list:

29. Blayne Enlow, RHP, St. Amant (La.) HS
30. Nick Allen, SS, Parker (Calif.) HS
39. Tanner Burns, RHP, Decatur (Ala.) HS
45. Jacob Heatherly, LHP, Cullman (Ala.) HS
48. Evan Skoug, C, TCU
52. Alex Scherff, RHP, Colleyville Heritage (Texas) HS
53. Tristan Beck, RHP, Stanford
54. Garrett Mitchell, OF, Orange Lutheran (Calif.) HS
55. Daniel Cabrera, LHP, Parkview Baptist (La.) HS
56. Jacob Pearson, OF, West Monroe (La.) HS

[TRex]

...silly me, I had assumed it was a baseball movie because it had 'Fall' in it's name!

 

[amjgt]

 

Anyone know the odds of a 3rd round or later guy beoming a productive player?

 

I'd say pretty close to the odds of a 2nd rounder.... which is only slightly higher than the odds of a back-half-of-the-first-rounder

[gunnarthor]

 

This makes a ton of sense... The ladies and some men were swooning over Legends of the Fall Brad Pitt. And who could blame them?! 

I remember that movie, I was swooning more over Julia Ormond though

[Seth Stohs]

Derek Falvey is about to join Mackey and Judd on 1500ESPN.

 

 

http://player.listenlive.co/47461

 

[Tecmo]

Hate me if you want, but I'd love to see them draft Nick Allen here. Then load up on pitchers.

[gunnarthor]

 

Hate me if you want, but I'd love to see them draft Nick Allen here. Then load up on pitchers.

I won't condemn the pick but a 5'8" shortstop? I'd pass.

[Intramural Legend]

 

Derek Falvey is about to join Mackey and Judd on 1500ESPN.

 

 

http://player.listenlive.co/47461

 

Dang it - just joined it as he was saying have a good day.  Recap anyone?

[mikecgrimes]

 

Only issue I see with the Lewis selection (Without the money involved) is it seems shortstop (of he sticks their like they believe he will) is of little need in the system currently. Can never have to many prospects at any given position. Especially up the middle. But doesn't seem it was necessary to spend the 1-1 pick on the position. Let's hope he turns out to be the Twins version of Derek Jeter and there's nothing to worry about.

If we have two true SS at SS and 2nd thats a plus, if we have 3 true SS at SS 2nd and 3rd thats a plus, heck if we have 4 true SS one with a little extra height over at first that's also a plus.

[mikecgrimes]

 

Hate me if you want, but I'd love to see them draft Nick Allen here. Then load up on pitchers.

 

Makes a ton of sense can never get to many position players especially when you know your gonna be able to sign a few extra picks then normal.

[amjgt]

I'm sure someone has done the analysis, but it would be interesting to see a chart showing percent chance that any given pick (ie. 3rd pick, 44th pick, 190th pick) accumulates 3 career WAR (or whatever the "right" number is).

 

What I suspect it would tell you is that you'd rather have the 50th-54th picks (all 5 of them) rather than the 5 guys you'd get at your regular slots over the first five rounds.

[mikecgrimes]

 

Best Draft Talent Available on Day Two

 

from Baseball America

 

Also 2017 Draft: The BA 500

 

Keep in mind how hard it is to evaluate especially beyond the top 10.  If we want the Twins to draft the top player on these lists then we should demand the Twins fire Falvey and hire the list maker.

[Intramural Legend]

 

I'm sure someone has done the analysis, but it would be interesting to see a chart showing percent chance that any given pick (ie. 3rd pick, 44th pick, 190th pick) accumulates 3 career WAR (or whatever the "right" number is).

 

What I suspect it would tell you is that you'd rather have the 50th-54th picks (all 5 of them) rather than the 5 guys you'd get at your regular slots over the first five rounds.

 

The problem with this is it doesn't account for signability.  After the first few picks, it may not be selecting the best player so much as selecting the best player that fits into your draft strategy / budget. 

[Seth Stohs]

My thoughts... 3rd round, I'd probably want Jacob Weatherly, and then take a catcher in the 4th round.

 

 

There was a bit of a catcher run at the end of Day 1, so it's possible that they could go with whoever they think is the top catcher with 76  and then hope for a high-end HS pitcher at 106.

[FunnyPenguin]

Anyone think the Twins are waiting to nab Blayne Enlow?  I don't know much about him, but he sounds intriguing.  Their savings thus far may be what it takes to entice him even as a later pick into signing

Edited June 13, 2017 by FunnyPenguin

[Steve Lein]

 

My thoughts... 3rd round, I'd probably want Jacob Weatherly, and then take a catcher in the 4th round.

 

 

There was a bit of a catcher run at the end of Day 1, so it's possible that they could go with whoever they think is the top catcher with 76  and then hope for a high-end HS pitcher at 106.

 

Do we have good information that Enlow is unsignable?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Anyone know the odds of a 3rd round or later guy beoming a productive player?

Here is a great in depth piece on the Draft using data from 1998-2012 , what values to expect based on WAR, how well teams draft, etc.  The average 1:1 in that period was 18.5 WAR for their career (up to this point).  There is a significant drop between early rounds (1st-80th pick overall and middle rounds (80th-100th overall).  BTW Adam Johnson is one of the worst picks in the time period

 

 

http://www.thebaseball.blog/who-drafts-the-best/

With a good podcast interview on Effectively Wild

 

[Darius]

This FO is so ahead of the curve analytically, they get their 3rd rounders in the second. It's really the start of the 4th round for them today.

 

They're one step ahead of everyone else.

[mikecgrimes]

 

The problem with this is it doesn't account for signability.  After the first few picks, it may not be selecting the best player so much as selecting the best player that fits into your draft strategy / budget. 

 

It's hard to play the under slot game without a top 3 pick so i think the #'s would basically give you an accurate indication.  Chances are the #76 pick or whatever we're on has never been used under slot, Twins are in position to increase the odds to probably mid to late 2nd round level.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm sure someone has done the analysis, but it would be interesting to see a chart showing percent chance that any given pick (ie. 3rd pick, 44th pick, 190th pick) accumulates 3 career WAR (or whatever the "right" number is).

 

What I suspect it would tell you is that you'd rather have the 50th-54th picks (all 5 of them) rather than the 5 guys you'd get at your regular slots over the first five rounds.

I posted a link to that yesterday. Check fangraphs, or I will post again. It gets random faster than people think.

[twinsfanstreif]

Some site predicts the Twins will take HS OF Tristan Lulz with the first pick of the 3rd round... 

 

 

https://twitter.com/jwgravley/status/874624679046262784

 

Draft Site (that's the name of the site) is a joke, they post a random mock for each sport that goes super deep and they never really update it, even when it says it is. They probably had us going with Faedo before the draft

[nicksaviking]

Do we have good information that Enlow is unsignable?

Well the Twins have had 12 hours to find out. Probably easier to get a read when the clock isn't ticking.

 

I think I prefer Weatherly but the Twins might have saved enough cash to get both.

[Steve Lein]

 

Well the Twins have had 12 hours to find out. Probably easier to get a read when the click isn't ticking.

I think I prefer Weatherly but the Twins might have saved enough cash to get both.

 

Who is this "Weatherly" guy everyone keeps mentioning?!  ;-)

 

(Heatherly I'd be fine with too if he's the one they think they can sign, but it would be awesome if your second sentence came true!)

Edited June 13, 2017 by Steve Lein

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Anyone know the odds of a 3rd round or later guy beoming a productive player?

Over the span of 1998-2012 Draft, picks from 80-300 are valued at an average of .5 WAR for their career.  Later than that .2 WAR career.  

 

The expected WAR for career draft picks based on article data of 1998-2012

 

1:1 is 12.9,

1:2 is 11.0,

1:3 is 9.9

1:4 is 9.1

1:5 is 8.5

1:6 is 8.0

1:7 is 7.5,

1:8 is 7.2

1:9 is 6.9

1:15 is 5.5,

1:25 is 4.1

80th is .9

105th is .8

210th is .6

402th is .2

 

[mikecgrimes]

 

Over the span of 1998-2012 Draft, picks from 80-300 are valued at an average of .5 WAR for their career.  Later than that .2 WAR career.  

 

The expected WAR for career draft picks based on article data of 1998-2012

 

1:1 is 12.9,

1:2 is 11.0,

1:3 is 9.9

1:4 is 9.1

1:5 is 8.5

1:6 is 8.0

1:7 is 7.5,

1:8 is 7.2

1:9 is 6.9

1:15 is 5.5,

1:25 is 4.1

80th is .9

105th is .8

210th is .6

402th is .2

 

I'd be curios to know the break down between pitcher and position player.  I'm guessing position players have a meaningful advantage although it might come down to HOF level players skewing position players more then pitchers along with shorter careers.

[InfraRen]

Hmmm, Twins?

 

https://twitter.com/hudsonbelinsky/status/874667844469968896

[InfraRen]

What do people think of Blayne Enlow, Tanner Burns, Tristan Beck, James Marinan, Alex Scherff, Matt Tabor & Jacob Heatherly? 

 

Seem to be the top HS P's available. 

Edited June 13, 2017 by InfraRen

[Mike Sixel]

MaineBall
12:48 Who has the highest ceiling of the remaining players?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:49 If either Riley Adams or KJ Harrison can catch and tap into their power, they're beasts. Both have huge question marks about those particular skills, which is why they're still on the board.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-mlb-draft-day-2/

 

[Steve Lein]

 

What do people think of Blayne Enlow, Tanner Burns, Tristan Beck, James Marinan, Alex Scherff, Matt Tabor & Jacob Heatherly? 

 

Seem to be the top HS P's available. 

 

All names Twins should like. I want Enlow in the next 15 minutes...