Article: Twins Daily Mock Draft

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Everyone loves a good mock draft.

 

Or even a poor one.

 

This is my one and only projection of the first 37 picks of this year's draft.1. Twins -

 

I'd love to put Hunter Green here. I would absolutely love to. And I think there's still a slim chance. After all, why would they bring him to town and wine and dine him in the final days leading up to the draft? Maybe, all along, their perceived lack of interest was just a smokescreen... I mean, what if they just didn't want every other team to know they were locked in on making history by drafting a 17-year-old right-handed pitcher who only threw 28 innings as a senior in high school? But what would the point of that be? Who cares if teams know what the team is doing first? Could that prevent other teams from getting a better feel about where they could save money and manipulate their own draft pools? I don't know.

 

As would probably be expected, no one with the Twins is real interested in divulging the biggest secret of the day... and that makes me question why this late turn back to McKay came to light?

 

As of press time, word hasn't broke from the Draft Room about the direction the club is going. But they have made their decision about who they like the most. The next eight hours will be all about money... and that could change things. Drastically.

 

You've probably noticed there is a blank next to the Twins name above. It's because I'm torn. I think there are still a few possibilities:

 

Kyle Wright, Brendan McKay, Royce Lewis and Hunter Greene.

 

I'll trust the new front office - one scout who has been involved in many drafts text me "these guys are f****** good, man" - and even if the selection wouldn't be my first choice, I'll give it the benefit of the doubt.

 

And I think their choice is going to be Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville.

 

2. Cincinnati - Hunter Greene, RHP, California prep

 

3. San Diego - MacKenzie Gore, LHP, North Carolina prep

 

4. Tampa Bay - Bubba Thompson, OF, Alabama prep

Last year, I knew the Braves were taking Ian Anderson. I just didn't see it happening at #3. It's the same for Thompson and the Rays... only this year, I'm going to pull the trigger. They will save up to load up on prep arms later.

 

5. Atlanta - Royce Lewis, SS, California prep

 

6. Oakland - Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

7. Arizona - Pavin Smith, 1B, Virginia

 

8. Philadelphia - Keston Hiura, 2B, UC Irvine

 

9. Milwaukee - Jo Adell, OF, Louisville prep

 

10. LA Angels - J. B. Bukauskas, RHP, North Carolina

 

11. Chicago White Sox - Adam Haseley, OF, Virginia

 

12. Pittsburgh - Shane Baz, RHP, Texas prep

 

13. Miami - DL Hall, LHP, Georgia prep

 

14. Kansas City - Trevor Rogers, LHP, New Mexico prep

 

15. Houston - Alex Faedo, RHP, Florida

 

16. NY Yankees - Austin Beck, OF, North Carolina prep

 

17. Seattle - Jake Burger, 3B, Missouri State

 

18. Detroit - Nate Pearson, RHP, JC of Central Florida

 

19. San Francisco - David Peterson, LHP, Oregon

 

20. NY Mets - Jeren Kendall, OF, Vanderbilt

 

21. Baltimore - Heliot Rams, OF, Puerto Rico prep

 

22. Toronto - Logan Warmoth, SS, UNC

 

23. LA Dodgers - Clarke Schmidt, RHP, South Carolina

 

24. Boston - Evan White, 1B, Kentucky

 

25. Washington - Seth Romero, LHP, Houston

 

26. Texas - Tristen Lutz, OF, Texas prep

 

27. Chicago Cubs - Tanner Houck, RHP, Missouri

 

28. Toronto - Tristan Beck, RHP, Stanford

 

29. Texas - Luis Campusano, C, Georgia prep

 

30. Chicago Cubs - Nick Pratto, 1B, California prep

 

31. Tampa Bay - Matt Sauer, RHP, California prep

 

32. Cincinnati - Sam Carlson, RHP, Minnesota prep

 

33. Oakland - Stuart Fairchild, OF, Wake Forest

 

34. Milwaukee - Steven Jennings, RHP, Tennessee prep

The Brewers have taken a lot of prospects I wish the Twins would get - so I'm assuming Jennings, who could be a steal, will go to the Brewers before the Twins get a chance.

 

35. Minnesota - Brady McConnell, SS, Florida prep

After playing it relatively safe at 1-1, McConnell is a high-ceiling shortstop who could burn into some of the money the club saves.

 

36. Miami - Mark Vientos, SS, Florida prep

 

37. Minnesota - Jacob Heatherly, LHP, Alabama prep

Don't see how Falvey can make three picks and none of them be a prep pitcher.

 

There you have it!

 

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[Seth Stohs]

Interesting that the Twins could go with Wright at 1.1... but he could also fall as low as 6... though everything I've read says that he wouldn't get past the Braves at 5.

 

So close to Carlson here...

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I don't think Wright gets past the Braves if Lewis is gone in the Top 4. I think Lewis seems like the perfect fit for the Braves... and it still wouldn't shock me if Lewis is the first to go.

 

Wright is still "in the mix" at 1-1, per a source. But the decision has been made who's going first (which means it isn't Wright) as long as the price is right.

[beckmt]

NO! to McKay. If it is him I have the tar and pitchforks ready if he fails.

[Pitz]

 

NO! to McKay. If it is him I have the tar and pitchforks ready if he fails.

What should we prepare if he succeeds?

[beckmt]

 

What should we prepare if he succeeds?

I hope if he is the Twins pick that he succeeds.  Just do not think he is the correct choice, but this is not my area of expertise.  Just feel picking him is picking not to fail, while I want to hit the homerun with still a high enough floor to be successful.

[beckmt]

Greene would still be my choice, just think the chance of him failing or turning into a one or two pitch closer is a more likely outcome.  Twins may want to avoid that outcome.

[Pitz]

 

I'll trust the new front office - one scout who has been involved in many drafts text me "these guys are f****** good, man" 
 

 

Very intrigued by this ... would love to hear more about what things Falvine are doing/saying that are so impressive.

[Pitz]

 

I hope if he is the Twins pick that he succeeds.  Just do not think he is the correct choice, but this is not my area of expertise.  Just feel picking him is picking not to fail, while I want to hit the homerun with still a high enough floor to be successful.

I get it. I don't think McKay would be the top of my list either. My post was mostly in jest - wondering what the opposite of tar and pitchforks would be. 

 

From what I've seen, the Twins draft team has been very diligent - and I'm excited to see how their entire draft looks, especially with 3 picks in the top 40.

[youngtwinsfan]

Strike out pitcher. Strike out pitcher. Strike out pitcher. Strike out pitcher.

[beckmt]

 

I get it. I don't think McKay would be the top of my list either. My post was mostly in jest - wondering what the opposite of tar and pitchforks would be. 

 

From what I've seen, the Twins draft team has been very diligent - and I'm excited to see how their entire draft looks, especially with 3 picks in the top 40.

My comment was that I do not want to pick to save money and I do not care if the pick is the safer one.  I just do not think that a ceiling of a number 2 or number 3 is where I want to pick.  I just feel other players have much higher upsides. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

As far as I can tell, Callis has it spot on:

 

McKay is the #1 choice, but if Lewis will come in significantly cheaper, he'll be the guy. I'm not sure how much either want... or how much "signficantly" is... but that's where I'd say things are at this point.

 

Drafting Lewis probably allows the Twins to draft two falling prep arms - which could be Sam Carlson and Steven Jennings... or anyone else really. Those two would just be my preference.

[Ben Noble]

I'd really like to see the Twins draft Gore. I think he ends up the best player in the draft and, even as a Boras client, the team should still be able to save a little money for picks 35 and 37.

[nytwinsfan]

 

As far as I can tell, Callis has it spot on:

 

McKay is the #1 choice, but if Lewis will come in significantly cheaper, he'll be the guy. I'm not sure how much either want... or how much "signficantly" is... but that's where I'd say things are at this point.

 

Drafting Lewis probably allows the Twins to draft two falling prep arms - which could be Sam Carlson and Steven Jennings... or anyone else really. Those two would just be my preference.

very interesting. to get those deals in place for whoever they would take at 35 and/or 37, wouldn't they have to get a deal with Royce Lewis worked out pretty soon? Cause to ensure players they want are available at 35 and 37 don't they have to tell them how much they will have for them so that those players in turn can tell other teams not to pick them earlier b/c they won't sign for slot amounts? Or is that not at all how this works?

[prouster]

I guess I can see why people think McKay could add velocity/generally grow as a pitcher by working on it full time. But people assumed the same thing about Kohl Stewart before he gave up football. So, is there any evidence whatsoever behind this assumption, or are people just making up stuff?

[Pitz]

 

As far as I can tell, Callis has it spot on:

 

McKay is the #1 choice, but if Lewis will come in significantly cheaper, he'll be the guy. I'm not sure how much either want... or how much "signficantly" is... but that's where I'd say things are at this point.

 

Drafting Lewis probably allows the Twins to draft two falling prep arms - which could be Sam Carlson and Steven Jennings... or anyone else really. Those two would just be my preference.

 

This all seems to jive with what I've consistently seen Falvey quoted as saying. He has talked about the entire draft portfolio. Valuations of players seem to get much more complex as these determinations are made. What algorithms have they put in place to compute valuations of collective upside/talent of groups of players? 

[drjim]

 

I guess I can see why people think McKay could add velocity/generally grow as a pitcher by working on it full time. But people assumed the same thing about Kohl Stewart before he gave up football. So, is there any evidence whatsoever behind this assumption, or are people just making up stuff?

 

Probably the latter. 

[nater79a]

 

Strike out pitcher. Strike out pitcher. Strike out pitcher. Strike out pitcher.

 

McKay does get plenty of strikeouts. All-time career leader at Louisville.

[nater79a]

McConnell.  Boras client and Gator commit?  Tough sign.

 

Will need plenty of  pennies saved from 1-1 and I could definitely see a Lewis/ McConnell package deal.

[Thrylos]

 

As far as I can tell, Callis has it spot on:

 

McKay is the #1 choice, but if Lewis will come in significantly cheaper, he'll be the guy. I'm not sure how much either want... or how much "signficantly" is... but that's where I'd say things are at this point.

 

Drafting Lewis probably allows the Twins to draft two falling prep arms - which could be Sam Carlson and Steven Jennings... or anyone else really. Those two would just be my preference.

 

Drafting 3 preps that are 3-4+ seasons away from the majors, for a team that is competing and has a young core that will likely be broken when those preps are ready, and needs close to MLB-ready pitching really badly, makes zero sense.

 

Especially drafting yet another middle infielder at 1-1, of whom the organization has plenty.

 

They have to draft a close to MLB-ready SP.  At this point, I'd go with the one who has the better record, and it looks like they will do that.  And I'd rather see them draft Bukauskas or Faedo at 1-1 if that will save them $, than a HS SS.

 

And I'd hope that someone like Romero falls at #35 and they go with a kid like Scherff (19 year old prep, plus FB, plus CH) at 37.

 

But drafting a SS (or CF) at 1-1 makes zero sense

Edited June 12, 2017 by Thrylos

[Oldgoat_MN]

Seth Romero has another year of eligibility in college. If he straightens up and pitches well he could likely go in the top 10 next year. Maybe top 5.

Between his off field issues and the chance that he won't sign I think he's too much of a risk to draft at #35 (or later).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Seth Romero has another year of eligibility in college. If he straightens up and pitches well he could likely go in the top 10 next year. Maybe top 5.

Between his off field issues and the chance that he won't sign I think he's too much of a risk to draft at #35 (or later).

 

I wouldn't take him until round 3 or later, personally.

[Blake]

 

Drafting 3 preps that are 3-4+ seasons away from the majors, for a team that is competing and has a young core that will likely be broken when those preps are ready, and needs close to MLB-ready pitching really badly, makes zero sense.

 

Especially drafting yet another middle infielder at 1-1, of whom the organization has plenty.

 

They have to draft a close to MLB-ready SP.  At this point, I'd go with the one who has the better record, and it looks like they will do that.  And I'd rather see them draft Bukauskas or Faedo at 1-1 if that will save them $, than a HS SS.

 

And I'd hope that someone like Romero falls at #35 and they go with a kid like Scherff (19 year old prep, plus FB, plus CH) at 37.

 

But drafting a SS (or CF) at 1-1 makes zero sense

I don't know about not drafting a SS that can pitch. Might be a good idea to have someone to back up Gimenez.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Seth Romero has another year of eligibility in college. If he straightens up and pitches well he could likely go in the top 10 next year. Maybe top 5.

Between his off field issues and the chance that he won't sign I think he's too much of a risk to draft at #35 (or later).

 

Where's he going to pitch? He got kicked off of his college team? I suppose he could go the Indy ball or lesser college route, but he'd be better off taking the money and trying to straighten things out as opposed to doing something stupid and ruining a third chance before he was even able to cash a check.

 

 

[pbrezeasap]

 

Drafting 3 preps that are 3-4+ seasons away from the majors, for a team that is competing and has a young core that will likely be broken when those preps are ready, and needs close to MLB-ready pitching really badly, makes zero sense.

 

Especially drafting yet another middle infielder at 1-1, of whom the organization has plenty.

 

They have to draft a close to MLB-ready SP.  At this point, I'd go with the one who has the better record, and it looks like they will do that.  And I'd rather see them draft Bukauskas or Faedo at 1-1 if that will save them $, than a HS SS.

 

And I'd hope that someone like Romero falls at #35 and they go with a kid like Scherff (19 year old prep, plus FB, plus CH) at 37.

 

But drafting a SS (or CF) at 1-1 makes zero sense

 

I hope they don't take Scherff that early. Saw him pitch last month and expected to be way more impressed with someone ranked top 50ish prospect who was obviously way more physically developed than the competition. Plus something is fishy when you switch schools every year of HS career, plus switch college commitment.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Drafting 3 preps that are 3-4+ seasons away from the majors, for a team that is competing and has a young core that will likely be broken when those preps are ready, and needs close to MLB-ready pitching really badly, makes zero sense.

Wouldn't it be nice to have some high end guys waiting in the wings if that core is broken? Sustainability. Baseball is rarely about drafting for present needs.

 

BTW, wasn't Target Field built so the Twins could keep their best players?

 

 

[drjim]

Wouldn't it be nice to have some high end guys waiting in the wings if that core is broken? Sustainability. Baseball is rarely about drafting for present needs.

 

BTW, wasn't Target Field built so the Twins could keep their best players?

Losing good players hasn't been the problem.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Losing good players hasn't been the problem.

 

I dunno, Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, Cuddyer...all were traded or let go because money was an issue. Even Ortiz was let go to avoid arbitration and the inevitable raise it would have brought.

[drjim]

 

I dunno, Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, Cuddyer...all were traded or let go because money was an issue. Even Ortiz was let go to avoid arbitration and the inevitable raise it would have brought.

 

The first two left well before Target Field. Cuddyer was likely performance related (or perhaps him jumping a sinking ship).

[Vanimal46]

 

The first two left well before Target Field. Cuddyer was likely performance related (or perhaps him jumping a sinking ship).

 

Yeah, I agree that the problem hasn't been losing players. In the year or 2 before Target Field was built up to today, they've resigned Morneau, Mauer, Perkins, Dozier... As well as giving out unwarranted extensions to Suzuki and Hughes. 

Since the ballpark opened, there hasn't been anyone else worthwhile to re-sign.