2017 MLB draft thread

[AZTwin]

It shouldn't. O'Leary is basically a snake oil salesman in the eyes of MLB people.

I have never even heard of him. Is he an agent for players? If so, that is pretty inappropriate. I agree with everyone else that the 88-90 scares me. Not many pitchers have been successful throwing less than 90 mph. Would hate to grab a soft tossed at 1-1. And while I like his bat, I'm not sure we should grab a 1B at 1-1 either. I'm down to Wright and Greene. Both have their pros and cons. I think I would roll the dice with Greene. This has to be one of the more difficult years having the 1-1 pick.

[drjim]

It shouldn't. O'Leary is basically a snake oil salesman in the eyes of MLB people.

Just seems so anecdotal in the approach. It's not like there is a shortage of TJ for people who don't have those mechanics.

[InfraRen]

Deep down I'm still hoping it's Greene. Perhaps some of the buzz out there lately about stuff is part of Twins plan to drive price down?

 

If it's not Greene I find myself leaning Wright. At least he's got stuff that can scare ya.

 

McKay seems like as a P/1B combo in college he's a beast, but if he's focusing on just 1 will he ever be elite in MLB?

 

I feel like with both Greene and Wright you've got the potential for an ace - Wright has some worry with throwing motion, and Greene just the sheer time to get there (and time to have things go poorly) but if you're at 1.1 man, shoot your shot.

 

 

[Willihammer]

Callis put a mock up last Friday: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/229743034/jim-callis-mock-projection-2017-mlb-draft/

[Willihammer]

Trevor Rogers' stats on maxpreps: http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/trevor-rogers/vFIgNaD7EeOzMAAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm

 

K-rate

2016: 45.2%

2017: 60.1%

[Willihammer]

Dunno about O'leary, but gotta think he'd like Sam Carlson's hand position at planting:

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Just seems so anecdotal in the approach. It's not like there is a shortage of TJ for people who don't have those mechanics.

Yeah, I do tend to agree on the anecdotal evidence and have taken enough still frame shots/video that you can find those images of "TJ Twist" in most pitchers at any given point.  I'm more of the Tom House, Doug Thorburn, NPA idea of elbow drag that has a higher correlation of TJ issues.  Even still you can have the most beautiful mechanics yet end up with arm issues, I'm still haunted by images of Mark Prior's inverted W OR you can have some of the ugliest motion and skate by fine ala Chris Sale thus far.

 

PS:  If you are a podcast nerd like me, you need to listen to Baseballaholics with Doug Thorburn and Sam Reid.  Thorburn does an extract every week on a pitcher's mechanics (usually MLB sometime MiLB) and what's to like and not to like, don't worry he dumbs it down for the laymen out there.

[Bob Sacamento]

McKay has the highest floor available in the draft, he'll be ready for the big leagues soon real soon, and could do it as a hitter or as a pitcher.  The more and more one hears about McKay, it might be in his best interest to take him as a hitter.  I've heard Callis say numerous times that he's the best two way college player since Dave Winfield, and scouting directors comping McKay's offense to that of a .280-.300 hitter with 20-25 homeruns.  On the pitching side, he has probably the best pitchability in the draft with three good pitches, plus command, but looks more like a #3 starter or a #2 at best but being lefthanded helps that too.  It's a good dilemma to be in for the Twins.

 

On Wright, he probably has the highest ceiling of any college pitcher, but he is inconsistent and needs more coaching than McKay does at the present time but he does have ace potential that McKay doesn't offer.

 

On Greene he has the projection and athleticism that scouts dream about.  On the mound he has a plus plus fastball sitting 97-101 and holding velocity deep into games but depending on what scout you read his breaking ball is currently a 30-40 on the 80 scale, so even with the best coaching you're hoping that he turns it into an average to plus pitch, his change is in the same boat.  On the offensive side, he's a late first round talent as a SS with his strong arm and perhaps the most power of any HSer in the draft.  If the Twins take anyone but McKay it's putting a good amount of faith in your pitching development department to get the most out of the prospect.

[Tibs]

 

McKay has the highest floor available in the draft, he'll be ready for the big leagues soon real soon, and could do it as a hitter or as a pitcher.  The more and more one hears about McKay, it might be in his best interest to take him as a hitter.  I've heard Callis say numerous times that he's the best two way college player since Dave Winfield, and scouting directors comping McKay's offense to that of a .280-.300 hitter with 20-25 homeruns.  On the pitching side, he has probably the best pitchability in the draft with three good pitches, plus command, but looks more like a #3 starter or a #2 at best but being lefthanded helps that too.  It's a good dilemma to be in for the Twins.

 

On Wright, he probably has the highest ceiling of any college pitcher, but he is inconsistent and needs more coaching than McKay does at the present time but he does have ace potential that McKay doesn't offer.

 

On Greene he has the projection and athleticism that scouts dream about.  On the mound he has a plus plus fastball sitting 97-101 and holding velocity deep into games but depending on what scout you read his breaking ball is currently a 30-40 on the 80 scale, so even with the best coaching you're hoping that he turns it into an average to plus pitch, his change is in the same boat.  On the offensive side, he's a late first round talent as a SS with his strong arm and perhaps the most power of any HSer in the draft.  If the Twins take anyone but McKay it's putting a good amount of faith in your pitching development department to get the most out of the prospect.

With this description I don't see any reason to not take Wright or second choice being Greene. Shouldn't the organization have enough confidence to develop the higher ceiling pitcher? McKay is clearly a great prospect but as a fan I'm not big on the safe choice when there is a guy with ace potential available.

[gunnarthor]

 

With this description I don't see any reason to not take Wright or second choice being Greene. Shouldn't the organization have enough confidence to develop the higher ceiling pitcher? McKay is clearly a great prospect but as a fan I'm not big on the safe choice when there is a guy with ace potential available.

Well, it's not just coaching. A guy with command/control problems might not be able to fix it even with the best coaches in the world. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I wonder if the Twins would surprise everyone and go a completely different direction like the Astros did in 2012, maybe like Royce Lewis. Doesn't seem like a very "Twinsy" thing to do but we haven't seen a draft from the new FO so who knows

There has been talk (I'm sure it's just guessing) that the Twins could pull a deal with a polished hitter like Pavin Smith and use those savings to take fallen players with their next two picks.

[Tibs]

 

Well, it's not just coaching. A guy with command/control problems might not be able to fix it even with the best coaches in the world. 

I agree. I still think the Twins should be shooting higher than an at best #2 pitcher with the top overall pick in the draft. Whoever is picked I will be excited to see develop.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There has been talk (I'm sure it's just guessing) that the Twins could pull a deal with a polished hitter like Pavin Smith and use those savings to take fallen players with their next two picks.

 

Please no. Please. NO. 

 

What if those players aren't there?

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Please no. Please. NO. 

 

What if those players aren't there?

There is always that gamble, and like I said I'm sure it's just analysts guessing at this point but Pavin Smith and Royce Lewis are two names that I've heard floated that could sign underslot to give the Twins enough money with their late 30's picks to take talent that falls due to monetary signing concerns (and yes there are always those in every draft).

[nicksaviking]

 

Please no. Please. NO. 

 

What if those players aren't there?

 

I agree, the savings would have to be so great that the Twins will have enough money with their next pick to put a guy in their pocket who is ready to say no to every other team if they don't meet his demands. It can't be a "roll the dice" kind of situation, the game has to be rigged in the Twins favor to do this, and I don't think the math makes it possible to do that any more.

 

Though there are several guys I'd prefer to McKay who might just happen to go under slot simply because McKay has the helium.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is always that gamble, and like I said I'm sure it's just analysts guessing at this point but Pavin Smith and Royce Lewis are two names that I've heard floated that could sign underslot to give the Twins enough money with their late 30's picks to take talent that falls due to monetary signing concerns (and yes there are always those in every draft).

 

With the collapsing of the pool sizes, I just don't think it works anymore.

 

Plus, a 1B 1:1? Ugh. Please no.

 

If they think Royce Lewis is an elite prospect, it would be ok with me, under the OLD rules....but I just don't see it working under these rules.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I agree. I still think the Twins should be shooting higher than an at best #2 pitcher with the top overall pick in the draft. Whoever is picked I will be excited to see develop.

I think of it as gambling at the roulette wheel, McKay is like betting on black or red, there is alot less risk and also less reward, but if you hit you still leave with more than you came in with.  Betting on Greene or Wright is like betting on the first dozen numbers, there is alot more risk but also far greater reward if you hit it.  How big of a risk/reward are you willing to take is what the Twins need to figure out in the next five weeks.

[Willihammer]

 

There has been talk (I'm sure it's just guessing) that the Twins could pull a deal with a polished hitter like Pavin Smith and use those savings to take fallen players with their next two picks.

Maybe I'm just following this class more closely, but it looks like a good year to do just that. Especially if McKay continues to slide and the consensus #1 becomes less clear. There are a ton of guys in the 6-22 range on Callis's board I'd love to get (plus Rooker). Have to think we could make a deal with a few of those guys if we have the $$.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

There has been talk (I'm sure it's just guessing) that the Twins could pull a deal with a polished hitter like Pavin Smith and use those savings to take fallen players with their next two picks.

 

I would feel much more confortable if this was a falling pitcher like Bukauskas or Wright than a hitter.... we need pitchers... and if that meant picking up a decent upside pitcher and then a couple more falling 1st round guys at 35/37, I'd be OK with it... not so much with a hitter. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

With the collapsing of the pool sizes, I just don't think it works anymore.

 

Plus, a 1B 1:1? Ugh. Please no.

 

If they think Royce Lewis is an elite prospect, it would be ok with me, under the OLD rules....but I just don't see it working under these rules.

There are alot of teams that if they had 1:1 would be taking McKay...as a 1B instead of a LHP and there is a possibility we could see 4 1B go in the first 15 picks.

 

Depends on how big of a discount the Twins could get Lewis or Smith under at, yes the Twins lost a huge advantage in the ~1.5M pool loss at 1:1 but its still far more money than what most sign for.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Maybe I'm just following this class more closely, but it looks like a good year to do just that. Especially if McKay continues to slide and the consensus #1 becomes less clear. There are a ton of guys in the 6-22 range on Callis's board I'd love to get (plus Rooker). Have to think we could make a deal with a few of those guys if we have the $$.

Yes, this draft might be lacking a true top talent that has broken away from the pack but there is definitely depth to be had in the first couple of rounds with not much separation at this point.

[gunnarthor]

Regardless, whoever we draft is going to sign for less than slot so we'll get some savings anyway, If the Twins took Smith or Jordon Adell (I really like him) I would expect that they already spoke with a few advisors to make sure someone(s) in the 10-20 range fell to 35/37.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Regardless, whoever we draft is going to sign for less than slot so we'll get some savings anyway, If the Twins took Smith or Jordon Adell (I really like him) I would expect that they already spoke with a few advisors to make sure someone(s) in the 10-20 range fell to 35/37.

Jordon Adell has ALOT of the same qualities as Byron Buxton, take that for what you will.  

[Willihammer]

I'm really baffled why Adell isn't in the conversation for 1-1.  

 

Kid has 22 home runs, most in the country. He has 7 strikeouts IIRC.

 

Buxton ran a 6.57 60-yard dash. Adell runs a 6.60.

 

Clocked at 97.

 

Won the Perfect Game HR derby last year. Multiple dingers in the 100+ exit velo. Hit one 448 feet (a record).

 

???

 

Why isn't this guy on the front page of SI?

[AZTwin]

I honestly wouldn't mind taking an underslot high school guy with the top pick. There is just no guy that screams that we need to draft them. This is a draft I could see a young guy in the 4-7 range be a better player than any of the top picks. Save some money and grab some elite talent in the other rounds and spread the risk a little more

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I honestly wouldn't mind taking an underslot high school guy with the top pick. There is just no guy that screams that we need to draft them. This is a draft I could see a young guy in the 4-7 range be a better player than any of the top picks. Save some money and grab some elite talent in the other rounds and spread the risk a little more

The problem here for me is that the 'underslot' guy I'm looking at is MacKenzie Gore. The more recent mock drafts are suggesting he will go #3 or #4.

Not the level off savings I was hoping for.

And I really want them to take a 'could be an ace' pitcher 1/1.

[gunnarthor]

 

Jordon Adell has ALOT of the same qualities as Byron Buxton, take that for what you will.  

My man crush on Buxton can easily accommodate Mr. Adell. Seriously, if we took him underslot at 1/1, I'd be the biggest cheerleader here.

[Lonestar]

I'm surprised no one has commented on this:

 

So, what happens if the Twins wind up with McKay and some scouts think he’d be better on the mound while others want to give that bat a chance to thrive in pro ball? How would Minnesota break that tie?

“You don’t have to break the tie. He’s talented both ways and we’re watching him both ways,” Radcliff said. “We don’t just show up on Friday when he pitches and that’s it. We watch him hit as well all through the week. So that process might continue all the way into his career, whatever team is lucky enough to get him, you know, we’ll see.”

“Unique situation. He’s a talented player both ways and we’ll see how that plays out come June and beyond,” Radcliff said.

 

http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/05/twins-draft-brendan-mckay-first-overall-pitcher-hitter/

[Hrbowski]

 

It shouldn't. O'Leary is basically a snake oil salesman in the eyes of MLB people.

I don't care what O'Leary says about pitching. He is even worse when it comes to analyzing hitters. I have my own personal opinions about pitching mechanics, but it varies from pitcher to pitcher because of body type. I mostly look for how well the upper and lower bodies are synchronized, and ignore whether something looks high effort or not. Some pitchers look smooth with their delivery, but have flaws that are hard for a lot of people to pick up. Others are high effort, but other than that they have a fundamentally sound delivery.

[biggentleben]

 

I have never even heard of him. Is he an agent for players? If so, that is pretty inappropriate. I agree with everyone else that the 88-90 scares me. Not many pitchers have been successful throwing less than 90 mph. Would hate to grab a soft tossed at 1-1. And while I like his bat, I'm not sure we should grab a 1B at 1-1 either. I'm down to Wright and Greene. Both have their pros and cons. I think I would roll the dice with Greene. This has to be one of the more difficult years having the 1-1 pick.

 

O'Leary is a guy who saw the parental worry about Tommy John, started making a few GIFs, and sold his "program" to tons of concerned parents around the nation. He landed a few big-name guys, like Matt Harvey (seriously, read his excuses on why Matt is injured or not performing well, all begins with when he stopped working with O'Leary, according to O'Leary, that is), and really became the first real big user of the "inverted W" term. Of course, that has been incredibly debunked, but he still is out there schilling the same stuff.