2017 MLB draft thread

markos · March 7, 2017

deGrom averaged 93.5 mph in 2014 and 2016, 95 mph in 2015. Data here.
deGrom averaged 89-94 mph in College, then moved to 93-95 in the pros. Data here (scroll)
Faedo last season averaged 92-95. Data here, and here (actually Sickels says it "gets higher")

Their sliders are very similar and they are both devastating, thus the comparison.

College pitchers usually gain a tick or two in the pros, maybe more, so there is no reason for Faedo to average 95 in the pros.

Fangraphs (and other sources that read directly from the pitchFX are measuring velocity 10-15 in front of the pitcher. I think it is 55 feet from home plate. So the velocity will be less than that detected from radar guns (used to get college velocity).

Brooksbaseball extrapolates the velocity back to the release point, which much more closely matches the velocity read from a radar gun. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=594798&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=03/07/2017

Where have you read that college pitchers gain velocity in the pros? Everything I've read has indicated the opposite. Sure, some pitchers gain, but the general trend is that pitchers lose velocity starting at age 21-22. Further, the difference between pitching once a week and pitching every 5 days is significant. But I'd be interested in reading evidence that supports your assertion.

Also, what evidence do you have that the deception, velocity and movement of Faedo's slider is very similar to deGrom's?

twinsfanstreif · March 7, 2017

Has Lewis started playing yet? He is one that I'm very interested in

Cory Engelhardt · March 7, 2017

Has Lewis started playing yet? He is one that I'm very interested in

I've heard his games start this Saturday, March 11th

Old Twins Cap · March 7, 2017

Why do I have a vague memory of a slight middle infielder named Lenny Faedo?

Twins33 · March 7, 2017

Why do I have a vague memory of a slight middle infielder named Lenny Faedo?

because he played for the Twins and is Alex's second cousin?

diehardtwinsfan · March 8, 2017

Probably a bit of a reach at 1-1, but this college lefty is worth watching.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/7/14783176/seth-romero-lhp-university-of-houston-2017-mlb-draft

twinsfanstreif · March 8, 2017

Probably a bit of a reach at 1-1, but this college lefty is worth watching.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/7/14783176/seth-romero-lhp-university-of-houston-2017-mlb-draft

As a University of Houston alum and a Twins fan I approve this message! Might be a reach at 1-1 but if he keeps pitching like he has been he will be gone by our next pick, he's been a beast for us

ashbury · March 8, 2017

he will be gone by our next pick

This will be true of 32 other guys as well.

drjim · March 9, 2017

It certainly wouldn't surprise me. Greene and Kendall are his real competition, I think. And kendall would actually have to hit for it to happen.....

You sure Kendall isn't hitting?

He is very much in play for #1.

gunnarthor · March 9, 2017

You sure Kendall isn't hitting?

He is very much in play for #1.

I know some are really big on the old "take best college hitter" strategy but man, he terrifies me. He's hitting but he's striking out a lot against players who won't make it past A+ ball. Sickel's reported that he had trouble with the wooden bats in a very small sample size. I know we don't draft for need but if he's a defense only CFer, he doesn't really fit. I'd rather they went with a pitcher.

Willihammer · March 9, 2017

There is some pretty compelling research out there about high strikeout rates in college. I'd be surprised if Kendall were seriously in consideration at 1-1 due to all his whiffs.

Thrylos · March 9, 2017

Probably a bit of a reach at 1-1, but this college lefty is worth watching.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/7/14783176/seth-romero-lhp-university-of-houston-2017-mlb-draft

Maybe at 2-1

Mike Sixel · March 9, 2017

You sure Kendall isn't hitting?

He is very much in play for #1.

From everything I read, he swings and misses A LOT.

edit: ninja'd. TWICE!

drjim · March 9, 2017

From everything I read, he swings and misses A LOT.

edit: ninja'd. TWICE!

He's improved his k/bb rate by a solid amount, hit for more power, and even with a really low babip, he still has a OPS north of .900. This is combined with really good athleticism.

I share the concern about the k rate, but if the power improvement is legit, and if the improvement in k/bb is real, it is something that you can live with. Lots of season left to see.

Mike Sixel · March 9, 2017

He's improved his k/bb rate by a solid amount, hit for more power, and even with a really low babip, he still has a OPS north of .900. This is combined with really good athleticism.

I share the concern about the k rate, but if the power improvement is legit, and if the improvement in k/bb is real, it is something that you can live with. Lots of season left to see.

Agreed, if he can hit, he's a legit candidate for number 1:1. Of course, his manager would have to stop telling him to sacrifice bunt ...

gunnarthor · March 9, 2017

Agreed, if he can hit, he's a legit candidate for number 1:1. Of course, his manager would have to stop telling him to sacrifice bunt ...

Wait, Molitor's managing a college team, too?

Mike Sixel · March 9, 2017

Wait, Molitor's managing a college team, too?

He'd fit right in.....

Mr. Brooks · March 10, 2017

He's improved his k/bb rate by a solid amount, hit for more power, and even with a really low babip, he still has a OPS north of .900. This is combined with really good athleticism.

I share the concern about the k rate, but if the power improvement is legit, and if the improvement in k/bb is real, it is something that you can live with. Lots of season left to see.

What is the historical translation of college k rate to mlb k rate?

I'm terrified to think what his k rate would balloon to against pro pitching, but maybe historically it's not as drastic as I'm imagining it would be.

drjim · March 10, 2017

What is the historical translation of college k rate to mlb k rate?
I'm terrified to think what his k rate would balloon to against pro pitching, but maybe historically it's not as drastic as I'm imagining it would be.

Don't have an answer to your direct question, but have traditionally thought major college would be equivalent to Hi A ball. His k rate is high (perhaps too high), but good sign is that his k/bb rate has significantly improved while also adding power compared to previous season. And from what I can tell he is keeping his other highly regarded tools.

But it is also less than 1/3 through season, so things can obviously change.

Thrylos · March 10, 2017

Don't have an answer to your direct question, but have traditionally thought major college would be equivalent to Hi A ball.

Not that high Really maybe advanced Rookie and that is a huge maybe. David Price for example was at around 13 K/9 in college. Never matched that in the pro balls and he went directly to A+ Same pretty much with Chris Sale. Same with Strasburg, same with our own Kyle Gibson.

Hard to match because good College pitchers go directly to A+ and pass the levels that would match their performance in K/9

drjim · March 10, 2017

Not that high Really maybe advanced Rookie and that is a huge maybe. David Price for example was at around 13 K/9 in college. Never matched that in the pro balls and he went directly to A+ Same pretty much with Chris Sale. Same with Strasburg, same with our own Kyle Gibson.

Hard to match because good College pitchers go directly to A+ and pass the levels that would match their performance in K/9

That's true, it probably depends on competition week in, week out. I wasn't necessarily thinking a direct translation of stats, more that an elite major college player should be able to hold their own in Hi A.

twinsfanstreif · March 10, 2017

I know some are really big on the old "take best college hitter" strategy but man, he terrifies me. He's hitting but he's striking out a lot against players who won't make it past A+ ball. Sickel's reported that he had trouble with the wooden bats in a very small sample size. I know we don't draft for need but if he's a defense only CFer, he doesn't really fit. I'd rather they went with a pitcher.

This^

diehardtwinsfan · March 10, 2017

keep in mind that Kendal's value is as a CF. He wouldn't be the best college hitter by a long shot. He may be the best hitter at a weaker hitting position, but that's a different issue.

Count me in though on being a bit skeptical about K rates, BABIP, and the wood bat stuff. Those are all big red flags. I'd think about him with the comp pick or the #2 if the was there, though to be fair I don't he falls that far. I'd much rather have Green, Faedo, or Wright at #1.

markos · March 10, 2017

I know some are really big on the old "take best college hitter" strategy but man, he terrifies me. He's hitting but he's striking out a lot against players who won't make it past A+ ball. Sickel's reported that he had trouble with the wooden bats in a very small sample size. I know we don't draft for need but if he's a defense only CFer, he doesn't really fit. I'd rather they went with a pitcher.

I'm pretty scared of Kendall as well, but one thing has kept me marginally intrigued: he has shown A LOT more power than advertised (or at least more than I expected). He has a .316 ISO right now, and is on pace for 17 HRs this year, which would be ~35 HRs in 600 PAs. I'm obviously extrapolating from a fairly small sample size right now. But if it holds up for the entire season, that power-speed combination is pretty attractive even with some contact issues. He certainly isn't my #1 right now, but I haven't written him off yet, either.

gunnarthor · March 10, 2017

Fair point.

Willihammer · March 10, 2017

Week 3 of The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-college-players-by-maybe-predictive-stats-11/

Willihammer · March 10, 2017

Is it just me or are there a bunch of stud sophomores in the college ranks this year?

drjim · March 10, 2017

I'm pretty scared of Kendall as well, but one thing has kept me marginally intrigued: he has shown A LOT more power than advertised (or at least more than I expected). He has a .316 ISO right now, and is on pace for 17 HRs this year, which would be ~35 HRs in 600 PAs. I'm obviously extrapolating from a fairly small sample size right now. But if it holds up for the entire season, that power-speed combination is pretty attractive even with some contact issues. He certainly isn't my #1 right now, but I haven't written him off yet, either.

I would emphasize your ladt sentence. I am pushing him a little, but mostly as a pushback against dismissing him. I would personally go Greene right noe, want to see more from the college arms.

diehardtwinsfan · March 13, 2017

Wright got shelled again. He's dropping on my radar personally.

Faedo, Posche, and Buksaukas all pitched quite well. Not as many Ks for Posche, but they cannot seem to hit him either. I wonder if he'll be around in the 30s.