Trade or stand pat

[amjgt]

 

If you decide to "get help" this year it should be by trading Dozier and Santana for long term help. And that's only if pumpkin Dozier wakes up again.

If they are in first by July 1 the conversation changes, but that's a ways off.

 

I think I would normally agree with you, but I'd hate for the back end of our rotation to be the reason why we dropped out of it by July 1st.

 

I'd be calling teams like the Padres, Marlins, and maybe the Blue Jays and see if they'd be willing to part with guys like Clayton Richard, Dan Straily, or Liriano (respectively).

 

Those teams shouldn't be looking for much for those pitchers, but they help us not scrape the bottom of our AAA barrel to find 5th and spot starters.

[DaveW]

You don't know what you'd have to give and what you'd get. Clayton Richard might cost you Gonsalves.

 

I doubt most people here would do that.

Lolol Richard would not cost that. Give me a break man.

 

Richard is like the 10th best pitch who will be avail this deadline. Nobody is going to give up a SP with high upside for him.

[yarnivek1972]

 

I think I would normally agree with you, but I'd hate for the back end of our rotation to be the reason why we dropped out of it by July 1st.

 

I'd be calling teams like the Padres, Marlins, and maybe the Blue Jays and see if they'd be willing to part with guys like Clayton Richard, Dan Straily, or Liriano (respectively).

 

Those teams shouldn't be looking for much for those pitchers, but they help us not scrape the bottom of our AAA barrel to find 5th and spot starters.

 

 

The problem is that the Twins have already seen a return to norm from Santiago and Santana.  The Twins hot start was in no small part because of THEIR hot starts.  Indeed, Santiago's season ERA is now basically right at his career ERA.  Santana truly concerns me. Not so much the ERA, but the walks.  He has walked 15 guys in 4 starts in May over 26 IP.  That's not Ervin Santana and it's not sustainable if he is going to have anything resembling a decent year. Tonight is an important start IMO.  If his control issues continue, my concern will continue.  

 

My point is that we would all like to believe that Berrios has "turned the corner" and is perhaps Francisco Liriano circa 2006 (obviously w/o the season destroying surgery).  But to believe that after two starts is unwise IMO.  And then what if Santana's control issues turn out to be some injury?  Are we really prepared to literally "bet the farm" that Jose Berrios will lead the Twins to the Promised Land?  Risky, to say the least.

 

The core players are young, very young.  IMO this team is more reminiscent of the 1984 Twins than the 1987 version.  The pitching just isn't in place yet.

 

Maybe the best option if the Twins are starting to fall out near the deadline is to trade Santiago and/or Santana for younger pitchers that are under team control for 3-4 more years.  Would the Yankees do Santiago for Severino, almost straight up - assuming Santiago maintains his ERA roughly where it is now?  Well, this is Severino's first full season at the MLB level.  If the Yankees are concerned that he will fade down the stretch as his IP mounts, they might bite.

[DaveW]

There is no way the Yankees would trade Severino for Santiago "close to straight up"

 

Unless the second piece coming over was named Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Dozier, Gordon or Berrios!

 

Like no, no no no no no no the Yankees would never do that deal. There would be at least a dozen other pitchers better or equal to Santiago at the deadline anyways!

 

Would you trade Berrios for Santiago?

 

Nope.

[drjim]

Lolol Richard would not cost that. Give me a break man.

 

Richard is like the 10th best pitch who will be avail this deadline. Nobody is going to give up a SP with high upside for him.

He would probably cost that right now. Perhaps not in July.

[DaveW]

He would probably cost that right now. Perhaps not in July.

There is no way he would cost that now.

 

It's not like San Diego is in the hunt...and richard is a solid #5 but nothing more. No way would any team ever give up a fringe top 100 guy for that!

[Vanimal46]

 

There is no way he would cost that now.

It's not like San Diego is in the hunt...and richard is a solid #5 but nothing more. No way would any team ever give up a fringe top 100 guy for that!

 

And for a rental player too... No chance. 

[drjim]

There is no way he would cost that now.

 

It's not like San Diego is in the hunt...and richard is a solid #5 but nothing more. No way would any team ever give up a fringe top 100 guy for that!

I agree with the last sentence, which is why he won't be moved right now.

 

No reason for Pads to give him away, they can keep a high price and come down in July.

[DaveW]

Or trade him now before his value plummets when 12 Better pitchers are on the market...

 

Richard isn't going to be some big target for most teams. The whole point of getting him is that he isn't great at all, but a significant upgrade over the 8.00 era that gibson and tespech will prob give us!

[Vanimal46]

We can nitpick on potential values of SPs available for trade... The reality is this team has a good enough lineup to stay competitive. Next season they'll be in the same boat - good offense, below average pitching.

 

Gonsalves already lost 2 months of development time this season, and was a pipe dream to debut this season anyways if everything went the way they wanted. Romero is a year+ away from making his debut. The rest of the high upside arms are now in the bullpen. 

 

The FA class of SP is weak, yet again. Unless you want to break the bank for Marco Estrada.

 

How exactly are they supposed to improve the pitching without gambling on a trade?

[yarnivek1972]

 

There is no way the Yankees would trade Severino for Santiago "close to straight up"

Unless the second piece coming over was named Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Dozier, Gordon or Berrios!

Like no, no no no no no no the Yankees would never do that deal. There would be at least a dozen other pitchers better or equal to Santiago at the deadline anyways!

Would you trade Berrios for Santiago?

Nope.

 

Yeah, probably not.  Not unless Severino starts fading like now.  Think they would go for Ervin?  He's older, but he would be under their control for at least one more season and possibly two.  Of course that would be predicated on Ervin getting over his control issues and having an ERA in the low to mid 3 range (or better).  If you were to ask me if I would trade Berrios for Ervin.  Under the previously mentioned circumstances, if I'm the Yankees, I would certainly consider it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Or trade him now before his value plummets when 12 Better pitchers are on the market...

You just said Richard's value isn't high.  How much could it plummet?

[Monkeypaws]

The Twins have never had what you'd call a deep rotation. 87 was Viola, Bert, and Straker. 91 had 3 legit guys in Morris, Tapani and Erickson. The filler on those teams was the likes of Mike Smithson, David West, and Joe Niekro.

 

Santana, Santiago, Berrios, Meija + might do just fine.

 

A five game losing streak and this team is at .500. Going "all in" at this point seems a bit premature. Please no more Hu for Jepsen or Ramos for Capps type of deals. Or more appropriately, seeing as the dscussion is staters, Neagle for Smiley.

[Vanimal46]

 

The Twins have never had what you'd call a deep rotation. 87 was Viola, Bert, and Straker. 91 had 3 legit guys in Morris, Tapani and Erickson. The filler on those teams was the likes of Mike Smithson, David West, and Joe Niekro.

 

Santana, Santiago, Berrios, Meija + might do just fine.

 

A five game losing streak and this team is at .500. Going "all in" at this point seems a bit premature. Please no more Hu for Jepsen or Ramos for Capps type of deals. Or more appropriately, seeing as the dscussion is staters, Neagle for Smiley.

 

How about Kielty for Shannon Stewart? 

[Willihammer]

If the Twins are going to trade I hope they make a strategic, long term move that will benefit them beyond 2017. And not for another back of the rotation guy. Go get Archer or someone along those lines.

[drjim]

We can nitpick on potential values of SPs available for trade... The reality is this team has a good enough lineup to stay competitive. Next season they'll be in the same boat - good offense, below average pitching.

 

Gonsalves already lost 2 months of development time this season, and was a pipe dream to debut this season anyways if everything went the way they wanted. Romero is a year+ away from making his debut. The rest of the high upside arms are now in the bullpen.

 

The FA class of SP is weak, yet again. Unless you want to break the bank for Marco Estrada.

 

How exactly are they supposed to improve the pitching without gambling on a trade?

A trade is a good idea, I approve!

 

But it's not a "nitpick" to talk about actually available options and what it would potentially cost to acquire said pitcher. It's kind of the critical detail.

[Vanimal46]

 

A trade is a good idea, I approve!

But it's not a "nitpick" to talk about actually available options and what it would potentially cost to acquire said pitcher. It's kind of the critical detail.

 

I get it. Maybe a more productive discussion is talking about whether the Twins should target a Richard type and set the market in June, or wait until the market is set on July 31 and hope like hell that they can afford whoever's left on the trade block. 

[drjim]

I get it. Maybe a more productive discussion is talking about whether the Twins should target a Richard type and set the market in June, or wait until the market is set on July 31 and hope like hell that they can afford whoever's left on the trade block.

Trading for a Richard type right now would be bad value.

[gocgo]

 

The problem is that the Twins still really have played mostly bad teams. Yesterday was their first game against any of the 3 best teams in the AL. And they lucked out into seeing their # 5 and a reliever who is not a MLB caliber pitcher. The Twins are still just 2-4 against the Tigers and Indians, two teams expected to be in contention from the Central. They just lost 2 of 3 to the Rockies and a ways back 2 of 3 to the BoSox. Frankly, the Twins record is largely a product of beating down the Royals and White Sox. When they prove they can hang with good teams, I'll take notice. This series is a good test.

I don't agree with this.  I see what you are trying to say, but let's take a look from another angle.  We are 7-1 against the Royals, but the Royals have a .409 winning percentage.  We all know that teams go thru hot streaks and cold streaks.  When you play a team is as important as who you play.  To me, 2-4 vs. the Tigers and Indians is like saying we aren't as good as them...and yet we are 7-1 against a .409 team.  So, if we are worse than the Tigers and Indians, are we that much better than the Royals?  If so, shouldn't the Tigers and Indians be undefeated against the Royals?  We beat a team last night that is was 15-4 at home.  What does that tell us?  The answer is nothing.  Baseball is about how you play over the course of the season and, so far, we've done OK.  Who we have played or haven't played means very little. How we perform in a series or a game or against another team means next to nothing.  How we play over the course of the season is all that matters.  There's gonna be ups and downs and we will play good teams that are cold and bad teams that are hot.  Overall, the cream rises to the top.

[Thrylos]

 

There is no way the Yankees would trade Severino for Santiago "close to straight up"

Unless the second piece coming over was named Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Dozier, Gordon or Berrios!

 

 

I would love it if the Yankees would trade Severino for Santiago plus Gordon;  it ain't happening...

[cmoss84]

I would like to go after Sonny Gray (who I thought looked pretty good against us) or Vincent Velasquez. I have a feeling we could put together a pretty good package, minus Gordon, to go get them without completely breaking the bank. 

 

Most of you will say the price would be too high, but I say it's doable. 

 

 

[dgwills]

We should absolutely not be trading for a starting pitcher. The Twins are a fringe contender. Even with an additional arm we just don't have the pitching to contend with the top teams. We also don't have any prospects to trade. We can't trade Gonsalves and Romero. We can't trade Gordon. We can't trade Chargois, Burdi, and Melotakis.

I hate to agree with Terry Ryan style thinking, but all I would be willing to do help the team compete this year is keep Dozier and trade a middling prospect for bullpen help at the deadline. Similar to the Hu trade a couple of years ago. If we are still in the hunt at that time.

The long term plan should be to take the money from the expiring Mauer contract and from not resigning Dozier and put that towards a top of the rotation arm in free agency.  It is really sad that Jose Fernandez lost his life so early because he was always the dream addition for me. That and it's just an absolute tragedy of course. 

[USAFChief]

 

How about Kielty for Shannon Stewart? 

The sabermetric community ripped the Twins for that trade, BTW.

 

 

[drjim]

We should absolutely not be trading for a starting pitcher. The Twins are a fringe contender. Even with an additional arm we just don't have the pitching to contend with the top teams. We also don't have any prospects to trade. We can't trade Gonsalves and Romero. We can't trade Gordon. We can't trade Chargois, Burdi, and Melotakis.

I hate to agree with Terry Ryan style thinking, but all I would be willing to do help the team compete this year is keep Dozier and trade a middling prospect for bullpen help at the deadline. Similar to the Hu trade a couple of years ago. If we are still in the hunt at that time.

The long term plan should be to take the money from the expiring Mauer contract and from not resigning Dozier and put that towards a top of the rotation arm in free agency. It is really sad that Jose Fernandez lost his life so early because he was always the dream addition for me. That and it's just an absolute tragedy of course.

They can absolutely trade any of those prospects not named Gordon for a controlled pitcher and not think twice.

 

I'd also trade Chargois or Melotakis for a rental starter.

[DaveW]

Kielty for Stewart worked out well because Stewart had a very awesome hot streak at the right time.

 

Extending him was dumb though.

 

Luckily Kielty never developed and reached his potential so the trade ended up being a "win" for the Twins

 

Even so, I do like that they actually had the guts to pull the trigger and take a risk. Sort of like how I won't ever lose too much sleep taking a risk on DeLeon (though I always thought tossing in Bartlett as wel was....dumb)

[dgwills]

 

They can absolutely trade any of those prospects not named Gordon for a controlled pitcher and not think twice.

I'd also trade Chargois or Melotakis for a rental starter.

I'd hate to sound snarky, but did you watch the world series last year? You need to have some elite talent in your bullpen to win a championship. The Twins currently don't have any players that would fit that description. We can't afford to give up players that have that kind of upside.

[Thrylos]

 

I'd hate to sound snarky, but did you watch the world series last year? You need to have some elite talent in your bullpen to win a championship. The Twins currently don't have any players that would fit that description.

 

Sure.  The Twins have it, but it is in AA

[yarnivek1972]

Kielty for Stewart worked out well because Stewart had a very awesome hot streak at the right time.

 

Extending him was dumb though.

 

Luckily Kielty never developed and reached his potential so the trade ended up being a "win" for the Twins

 

Even so, I do like that they actually had the guts to pull the trigger and take a risk. Sort of like how I won't ever lose too much sleep taking a risk on DeLeon (though I always thought tossing in Bartlett as wel was....dumb)

Didn't the Jays throw in Bobby Korecky in that trade too, or am I just getting old? Best pinch hitter EVER.

[drjim]

I'd hate to sound snarky, but did you watch the world series last year? You need to have some elite talent in your bullpen to win a championship. The Twins currently don't have any players that would fit that description. We can't afford to give up players that have that kind of upside.

The only one potentially fits that is Burdi. But there is enough risk that I would absolutely move him in a package for a controlled starter.

[drjim]

Didn't the Jays throw in Bobby Korecky in that trade too, or am I just getting old? Best pinch hitter EVER.

Dave Gassner

 

Korecky was in the Eric Milton trade (with Silva and Punto)