Article: Reset Button May Be Pressly's Best Friend

[Ted Schwerzler]

Through the first month of the big league season, Twins reliever Ryan Pressly has had a rough time. A right-hander who profiled well for a high leverage role in the late innings, he's staring at an ERA just south of 9.00 has been searching for answers. However, a bit deeper dive suggests all is not lost.Currently, the Twins former Rule 5 selection owns a 8.74 ERA across 11.1 IP. He's surrendered three homers, and owns a 5.56 FIP. There's no way to look at those numbers and find a whole heap of positive. Looking beyond the surface a little bit though, we can see this start has the potential to be a small blip on the radar in what can turn out to be a nice season.

 

Maybe most easily visible, Pressly is actually striking out 8.7 per nine, up from his career high a year ago. He's also walking slightly more than in 2016 (3.2 BB/9 as opposed to 2.7 BB/9), but it's not incredibly far off from his career norms. His offerings have stayed the same, and he's actually seen velocity increases on all three of his pitches (including a two mph jump with his slider).

 

So what gives?

 

The reality is that Pressly's results have been shaken by roughly three pitches to three relative no-name hitters. He's given up homers to Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson, and John Hicks. None of those three are big league stalwarts, and their homers came off of a good fastball and two hanging sliders.

 

From a results standpoint, Pressly has generated virtually the same amount of groundballs, line drives and fly balls as he has in the past. He also has a similar (albeit slightly down) chase rate, with a similar swinging strike percentage. There's not a massive spike in contact, or contact being made within the zone either. If there's a spike, it's in how hard balls are being put into play, and what is happening in those instances.

 

Pressly is allowing hard hit contact 40.5% of the time, up from 31.8% a year ago. His home run to fly ball rate has skyrocketed from 9.5% in 2016 to 21.4% this season. The hard hit rate has also produced a .353 BABIP, up from his career .300 mark, and .311 last season. Of the 185 pitches Pressly has thrown, 14 have been put in play with an exit velocity north of 95 mph. Of those 14 balls in play, 10 of them have resulted in base hits.

 

Hard contact resulting in runners on base isn't news by any means. It makes sense that a ball being put in play with solid contact would result in a good outcome more often than not. What's unfortunate is that the hard contact is coming in just under half of the time for the Twins reliever. It's likely in part a by product of throwing with increased velocity, but also likely due to batters being more able to hit the Twins reliever.

 

At this point, I'm not sure if Pressly has tipped pitches, or shown any hints to opposing hitters that would give his stuff away. As things stand, he's doing everything he always has done, but three balls in the seats have inflated his overall numbers. Opposing hitters making hard contact are forcing him to really work through his outings, but for a guy with his stuff, it shouldn't be an obstacle he's incapable of overcoming.

 

When at his best, Pressly is among the best arms in the Twins pen. Clearly that time is not now, but there's not much to suggest he can't get back to it either.

 

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[yarnivek1972]

I still believe it's a product of overuse last year, especially in the first half. It is common for guys with that kind of workload bump to struggle the next season. A tick in speed for his slider probably means it has a tick less movement and break. Hence, rocketing out of the stadium. One would expect arm fatigue to result in less velocity, but higher velocity might simply mean he is exerting more to compensate for fatigue.

[Thrylos]

So what is that "Reset Button".  Only on the title. Pressly has another option left.  Is that the "reset button"?  If so, count me in....

[HitInAPinch]

In a Rule 5 player, there's always going to be these types of questions.  And there have been some pretty stunning successes, too.  You can blame the Twins for over-using Pressly last year all you want, but what else could they really do?  Better starting pitchers that can pitch deeper into games would be the best place to look.

 

I'm hoping the 28 yr. old Pressly can bridge the bullpen gap to a Twins resurgence. Finally...

[mikelink45]

I give him a vote of no confidence.  28 years old, at his peak, he is not showing us the skills that we should expect from a key reliever.  

[theBOMisthebomb]

Keep giving him chances for now. He needs to adjust as the league has adjusted to him. Three poor pitches with bad results is significant.

[yarnivek1972]

It would be a vastly different story if Chargois and Reed were healthy and Burdi was ready. I think Burdi is still a couple months away. I think he needs to be promoted asap and see how he fares against somewhat better competition.

[Vanimal46]

Would Burdi/Melotakis/Hilldenberger do any worse than Pressly right now? I'd be shocked if that were the case.... 

He needs to be sent back to AAA yesterday. Give him 10-15 appearances in Rochester to clear up whatever issues he's going through. 

[wsnydes]

 

Would Burdi/Melotakis/Hilldenberger do any worse than Pressly right now? I'd be shocked if that were the case.... 

He needs to be sent back to AAA yesterday. Give him 10-15 appearances in Rochester to clear up whatever issues he's going through. 

This.  I don't have any confidence in him at the moment, but I don't think giving up on him entirely is the way to go either.  Send him down to work out of his funk (or not) and then proceed from there.

[yarnivek1972]

I wish we could tag users with a "c" or "p" to indicate their current opinion on whether the Twins are truly contenders. Sending Pressly down and calling up Burdi, for example, because it is believed that he is better now only makes sense to a contender. I know some people are fine with calling up from AA. Personally, I prefer to see how a guy does in AAA first.

 

I don't think this team is a contender and therefore I don't think it makes sense to bring up Burdi, who may not be ready. Do I think he is ready for AAA? Yep.

[Shaitan]

Maybe the manager should let him work out his kinks when there's a 5 run lead instead of using his best arms in those situations.

[Vanimal46]

 

I wish we could tag users with a "c" or "p" to indicate their current opinion on whether the Twins are truly contenders. Sending Pressly down and calling up Burdi, for example, because it is believed that he is better now only makes sense to a contender. I know some people are fine with calling up from AA. Personally, I prefer to see how a guy does in AAA first.

I don't think this team is a contender and therefore I don't think it makes sense to bring up Burdi, who may not be ready. Do I think he is ready for AAA? Yep.

 

If you believe the team isn't a contender, wouldn't it make sense to give Burdi/Melotakis/pick your poison some time on the MLB team so they have experience when the team evolves into contenders?

[yarnivek1972]

 

If you believe the team isn't a contender, wouldn't it make sense to give Burdi/Melotakis/pick your poison some time on the MLB team so they have experience when the team evolves into contenders?

 

Sure, but not if you don't think they are ready.  I know there is a school of thought that says promoting to MLB from AA is fine.  I don't agree with it, but I know many do.  My opinion is that there is a value to being at AAA for prospects.  The competition is better. But they are also hanging around with some players that have MLB experience.  They are hopefully learning from them what it takes to make it in the show.  The other school of thought is that AAA should basically just be injury replacements.  

 

It remains to be seen what school Falvey and Levine belong to.

[Ted Schwerzler]

I just don't see much benefit to him going down. He's a pretty lackluster 11 innings or so. He remains among the Twins highest upside pen arms. If they had more talent in relief in general, you could probably change your usage a bit more.

 

At this point, I'd let him pitch through it and have a pretty significant belief that the tide will turn. If you can get Melotakis, Burdi, Hildenberger, Chargois, etc in there too, then sure, you have ample guys with opportunity to do more. Removing Pressly and leaving it Duffey/Rogers and the misfits doesn't do much for me.

[Vanimal46]

 

Sure, but not if you don't think they are ready.  I know there is a school of thought that says promoting to MLB from AA is fine.  I don't agree with it, but I know many do.  My opinion is that there is a value to being at AAA for prospects.  The competition is better. But they are also hanging around with some players that have MLB experience.  They are hopefully learning from them what it takes to make it in the show.  The other school of thought is that AAA should basically just be injury replacements.  

 

It remains to be seen what school Falvey and Levine belong to.

 

Yeah it'll be interesting to see what school they belong to for sure... I guess I'm enrolled in the school of promoting from AA is fine on a case by case basis. When it comes to RP, I don't see an issue with jumping up 2 levels. Same with elite prospects such as Sano. 

 

When it comes to relievers, they should have the same approach in AA as they should in the majors. Throw the ball really hard, and get them to chase junk out of the zone. I'm not sure if a person needs x amount of innings in A, AA, and AAA before they can hang in the majors. 

[Vanimal46]

 

I just don't see much benefit to him going down. He's a pretty lackluster 11 innings or so. He remains among the Twins highest upside pen arms. If they had more talent in relief in general, you could probably change your usage a bit more.

 

At this point, I'd let him pitch through it and have a pretty significant belief that the tide will turn. If you can get Melotakis, Burdi, Hildenberger, Chargois, etc in there too, then sure, you have ample guys with opportunity to do more. Removing Pressly and leaving it Duffey/Rogers and the misfits doesn't do much for me.

 

Can't say I agree with this approach. Gibson arguably has more upside than Tepesch and Haley for example. If you're struggling that much where you're giving up hard contact and can't get out of an inning, upside doesn't matter. 

 

There's no place to hide Pressly in this bullpen when it's all hands on deck. IMO they need to keep this group fluid and rotate out struggling pitchers for someone else who could do better. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Removing Pressly and leaving it Duffey/Rogers and the misfits doesn't do much for me.

I think the idea is, remove Pressly and call up one of Melotakis, Burdi, or Hildenberger to fill in for him.  Maybe just to get their feet wet, maybe to claim a spot going forward, Jose Mijares style.

 

Or leave Pressly alone and option Drew Rucinski, that's fine too.  But it would be nice to see something done, more than simply cutting Tonkin and replacing him with AAA filler.

[yarnivek1972]

I just don't think you can let someone pitch is poorly as Pressly has and leave them on the big-league roster to "work it out". That's pretty disrespectful to the rest of the roster that is actually trying to win games on a team with a better than .500 record. AAA is where one goes to work on their approach or work it out or whatever euphemism were using. I do think there's a pretty high likelihood that one of three or four pictures at AAA could come up and do better than Presley has gone. Buddy Boshers has already showed us he can do that.

 

Also, if we are going to leave him on the MLB roster then he needs to pitch in low leverage situations... You know, like yesterday when he could come in and pitched the ninth inning in a 7 to 2 ballgame instead of wasting Rogers. The fact that they did not put him in really shows you how little confidence they have in his ability. They couldn't even trust him to protect a five run lead against a less than stellar lineup. Sadly, right now all Pressly is doing is taking up a roster spot; one that could go to someone who might at least marginally help the team. I actually think Pressly has some upside could regain his mojo, I just think he needs to go to AAA for that to happen.

Wonder what they think about the acquisition of Wilk, potentially to start Saturday. It's a good way to sow clubhouse discontent in a real hurry.