Gibby / Berrios

[Oldgoat_MN]

Gibson has been ‘lucky’ in that he has a .261 BABIP. That suggests things are going to get worse, not better. Of 126 MLB starters who have pitched 10 or more innings:
only 5 have a lower WAR,
10 have a higher ERA,
4 have a higher FIP.

 

The issue is, other than Berrios, who do we have to replace him? We are desperately short of starters, and Stewart is not inspiring confidence. I don’t think in their wildest dreams Felix Jorge or Fernando Romero thought they’d be in MLB before June this year.

And hey! Lachlan Wells is looking really good in high A ball so far.

 

We have little choice but to roll with him for another start or 2 at minimum and see if things get better. *shudder*

[yarnivek1972]

 

Gibson has been ‘lucky’ in that he has a .261 BABIP. That suggests things are going to get worse, not better. Of 126 MLB starters who have pitched 10 or more innings:
only 5 have a lower WAR,
10 have a higher ERA,
4 have a higher FIP.

 

The issue is, other than Berrios, who do we have to replace him? We are desperately short of starters, and Stewart is not inspiring confidence. I don’t think in their wildest dreams Felix Jorge or Fernando Romero thought they’d be in MLB before June this year.

And hey! Lachlan Wells is looking really good in high A ball so far.

 

We have little choice but to roll with him for another start or 2 at minimum and see if things get better. *shudder*

What's wrong with replacing him with Berrios?  Sure, it leaves you a little thin.  Nick Tepesch has been doing okay.  He's got some MLB experience.  He certainly isn't a prospect, but he gives you options in case of injury.  Twins could send Gibson to AAA for insurance, if they wanted to.  I fail to see the need, but at this point he wouldn't be standing in anyone's way.  A team can probably acquire any number of # 5 starters for peanuts at any time.

[Willihammer]

 

The flip side of your optimistic view of Gibson adding a couple ticks and striking out more as a reliever is the fact that he has NEVER been a reliever.  He's started 184 games as a pro.  He's relieved in 2.  Both in rookie ball in 2012 on a rehab assignment I believe.  There is no reason to believe he will succeed doing something he has never done before at his age.  And there is no reason to try.  The Twins aren't lacking right handed middle relievers.

They have warm bodies but there's plenty of room for a quality reliever. Have you seen what those guys fetch at the trade deadline?

Lots of guys transition to being quailty relievers after failing as starters. The fact it would be happening at age 29 doesn't make it impossible Gibby would follow suit. The only reason it hasn't been tried is because the starting pitching situation has been so inept. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

What's wrong with replacing him with Berrios?  Sure, it leaves you a little thin.  Nick Tepesch has been doing okay.  He's got some MLB experience.  He certainly isn't a prospect, but he gives you options in case of injury.  Twins could send Gibson to AAA for insurance, if they wanted to.  I fail to see the need, but at this point he wouldn't be standing in anyone's way.  A team can probably acquire any number of # 5 starters for peanuts at any time.

I agree that Tepesch is probably the choice here. Wimmers and Baxendale have both been moved to the bullpen, Wheeler has a 1.7 WHIP, Slegers got hammered in his last start.

Other than Berrios I don't see any youth in the SP corps above AA.

 

*EDIT: all along I've had it that Berrios is a given. My point is that someone is going to get hurt and we are desperately short of SP.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think we don't know the answers to all those questions yet.  The hope would be that he adds a couple ticks to his fastball and strikes out opponents at a higher clip than he does as a starter. 

He has always been okay at getting hitters out the first time through. The second time is where he gets crushed.

There are many pitchers in baseball history whose stuff didn't play as a starter but thrived in the bullpen.

 

The last, oh, 17 Twins closers fit that profile, actually.

 

I don't see any reason to completely give up on Gibson right now. The Twins roster simply isn't very good. Demote him to the pen or Rochester, sure, but don't discard him entirely because there are few pitchers behind him who look better.

[Bill Brown69]

I would be cautious about the depth of starters. I do think Berrios has showed enough in his 2 starts to start the wheels of thinking turning though. 90% chance that between now and the end of the season we will need 8 starters. 

 

Santana

Hughes

Gibson

Santiago

Mejia

Berrios

Then you get to 

Duffey

Haley/ Bullpen game ala Swarzak start or the option of making a 40 man move or bringing somebody up who either may not be ready or worse, somebody who may be on a short rest and having them blow out. The bad thing is there is not always 5-7 days to set your pitchers up for a start. Often it is 1-2 days after the bullpen/side session that you realize somebody can't go. 

 

Removing Gibson is not the answer, but optioning him might be. I would also not be against optioning Duffey and putting him in the rotation in Rochester and moving Gibson into his role but that will all play out between now and Fathers Day.

 

I am personally hoping Gibson returns to form and this whole subject goes away.

 

 

 

[Ex-Iowegian]

When Gibson came up (pre-TJ) he actually attacked the strike zone. It was one of his first ST appearances and it was impressive. His entire demeanor was different. 

Now, I find myself screaming at the TV for him to get back to that. Attack. Use the guys behind you.

But nope. Nibble, nibble and nibble, until you have to groove one. Seems so obvious.

If he really does have a couple of options left, that is a good idea. Maybe he needs that harsh of a message. Might get his head back on straight.

[Thrylos]

 

When Gibson came up (pre-TJ) he actually attacked the strike zone.

 

He never came up pre-TJ.   He has his TJ in 2011 after 2 seasons in the minors.  He came up in 2013 mid-season.

 

[yarnivek1972]

 

They have warm bodies but there's plenty of room for a quality reliever. Have you seen what those guys fetch at the trade deadline?

Lots of guys transition to being quailty relievers after failing as starters. The fact it would be happening at age 29 doesn't make it impossible Gibby would follow suit. The only reason it hasn't been tried is because the starting pitching situation has been so inept. 

What makes Gibson a quality reliever?  He isn't executing the pitches he needs to make.  He simply is unable to do it anymore.  His G/F ratio is heading the wrong way.  From 1.3 in 2014, to .99 last year to .82 so far this year.  YIKES!!  That has nothing to do with being a starter or reliever.  That's "can't get the ball where he wants it to go". If you can't do that, you get results like 8 extra base hits in 14 IP.

[Willihammer]

 

What makes Gibson a quality reliever?  He isn't executing the pitches he needs to make.  He simply is unable to do it anymore.  His G/F ratio is heading the wrong way.  From 1.3 in 2014, to .99 last year to .82 so far this year.  YIKES!!  That has nothing to do with being a starter or reliever.  That's "can't get the ball where he wants it to go". If you can't do that, you get results like 8 extra base hits in 14 IP.

All I'm saying is its possible. He could be terrible, but we won't know until we try.

 

Out of curiosity how long have you been a Twins fan? This team has a long history of turning sub-par starting pitchers into quality relievers. Perkins, Nathan, Guardado, Hawkins to name a few.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

What would you need to see from Gibby in 2 starts to convince you he has turned a corner?

70% first ball strikes would convince me. How hard is that to do? It's not rocket science.

[Otto von Ballpark]

All I'm saying is its possible. He could be terrible, but we won't know until we try.

 

Out of curiosity how long have you been a Twins fan? This team has a long history of turning sub-par starting pitchers into quality relievers. Perkins, Nathan, Guardado, Hawkins to name a few.

Nathan's conversion was mostly done in San Fran. He was a top setup guy there before he became our closer.

 

Not that it refutes your point, but I wonder if most teams don't have a similar record in this regard. It seems common enough.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nathan's conversion was mostly done in San Fran. He was a top setup guy there before he became our closer.

 

Not that it refutes your point, but I wonder if most teams don't have a similar record in this regard. It seems common enough.

Yeah, I think this is more of a universal thing than a Twins thing but it seems pretty common (less now than a decade ago though).

[Linus]

Just option him and see if he can regain his confidence. No reason to put him in the pen when he has pitched worse than any pitcher they have. I'm fearful this is it. He's so scared on the mound that he unravels at the first sign of trouble. That tells me he has no faith in his stuff.

[USAFChief]

 

All I'm saying is its possible. He could be terrible, but we won't know until we try.

 

Out of curiosity how long have you been a Twins fan? This team has a long history of turning sub-par starting pitchers into quality relievers. Perkins, Nathan, Guardado, Hawkins to name a few.

True, but Perkins, Nathan, and Hawkins, for example, had good fastballs, that became even better when they went to the pen.  They lacked the consistent command and secondary pitches to be effective starters, but could effectively pitch short stints with one secondary pitch and an uptick in velocity.

 

Gibson doesn't have the FB to form the basis of effective short relief, IMO.  It might work, but he's starting out behind most of the guys you listed.

[snepp]

Gibson could pull a Swarzak, move to the pen, ditch all other secondary offerings and start throwing his slider half of the time.

 

*shrug*

[Old Twins Cap]

With Gibson, there's no there there.  You look at the pitches the other team hits in crucial situations, and it's the curve/slide piece, even when it is practically in the dirt.  There's no bite.

 

The fast ball is fine, such as it is, but it won't get hitters out and they don't swing and miss.

 

So, that leaves his sinker and his change-up.  Serviceable sure.  But, guess what?  The hitters will be looking for them and lay off the ones out of the zone.

 

Add it all up and Gibson does not have a route to a decent start.  Teams will dink and dong him, depending on the pitches he throws, but there isn't swing and miss capability to make anything work or to get out of trouble.

 

Sad, but time to cut bait on a 5 year experiment.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

What's wrong with replacing him with Berrios? Sure, it leaves you a little thin. Nick Tepesch has been doing okay. He's got some MLB experience. He certainly isn't a prospect, but he gives you options in case of injury. Twins could send Gibson to AAA for insurance, if they wanted to. I fail to see the need, but at this point he wouldn't be standing in anyone's way. A team can probably acquire any number of # 5 starters for peanuts at any time.

i see the need for depth. Option Gibby and keep him starting in AAA.

[Willihammer]

 

True, but Perkins, Nathan, and Hawkins, for example, had good fastballs, that became even better when they went to the pen.  They lacked the consistent command and secondary pitches to be effective starters, but could effectively pitch short stints with one secondary pitch and an uptick in velocity.

 

Gibson doesn't have the FB to form the basis of effective short relief, IMO.  It might work, but he's starting out behind most of the guys you listed.

Could very well be the case. I just don't think that means we automatically cut the guy.