Shohei Otani

[drjim]

The Rangers have unsigned players too. More than the Twins, by that list.

 

I made a mistake. The guys with no money are signed, but for small amounts.

 

The Twins are tied to Aguiar and Bonifacio, who have not signed yet because they have late August birthdays. They are ranked 30 and 34 by BA, so I assume they'll make a significant dent into the 3ish million left for the Twins.

 

I don't know if the Rangers have unused money and signings lined up. If they are making a play for Otani I doubt it.

[Mike Sixel]

No chance. Why is he signing here, and not one of the super wealthy teams that can pay if they want? 

[Vanimal46]

Well, it's official. Otani is heading to the US to play in the MLB next season. Because of the new CBA, the max contract he can receive is $10.1 million. Which means money isn't going to be the factor for which team he chooses. 

This smells like a Yankees or Dodgers signing. 

[Vanimal46]

Fangraphs also just posted a new blog....

"How to Sign Shohei Otani"

[Mike Sixel]

He has also asked for his name to be:

 

Ohtani in English.....

 

I give the Twins a 2% chance, maybe 1.

[Vanimal46]

 

He has also asked for his name to be:

 

Ohtani in English.....

 

I give the Twins a 2% chance, maybe 1.

 

That's about right. It's not 0! But it's very, very small. 

I'd say: 

Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Astros (15-20% chance)

Any other team not on the coast: 1-2% chance. 

 

Since the contract terms aren't going to be drastically different from all 30 teams, he's going to make his money via marketing.... And frankly, the large markets offer way better opportunity than in fly-over country. 

 

[Vanimal46]

Dave Cameron was bringing up some good points in his chat today. It'd be tough for an AL team to promise 2-way playing time. Especially if the bat can't play in a DH role. In the NL, he could at least PH for the pitcher on his days-off, or throw him in the OF.

 

Since he's forgoing hundreds of millions of dollars to be an MLB player now, I've got to imagine a team has to promise he'll be a 2-way player in order to make it to the negotiation table.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Dave Cameron was bringing up some good points in his chat today. It'd be tough for an AL team to promise 2-way playing time. Especially if the bat can't play in a DH role. In the NL, he could at least PH for the pitcher on his days-off, or throw him in the OF.

 

Since he's forgoing hundreds of millions of dollars to be an MLB player now, I've got to imagine a team has to promise he'll be a 2-way player in order to make it to the negotiation table.  

 

How badly does he want to play here? So badly he'll give up hundreds of millions of dollars.....

[Vanimal46]

Here's Klaw's perspective from his chat today. 

 

Adam: It has been speculated that Otani’s free agency will be a situation “where money almost literally isn’t a factor,” due to the new signing rules. But the difference between $300k and $10mil is still a lot of money, even for Otani, right?

 

Keith Law: Of course it is. Two thoughts on Otani: One, I saw absolutely nothing this week to indicate that he’s any more likely to be posted next month than he was a few days ago. There was one completely unsourced report out of Japan … and that’s it. He may very well come over, but this was a non-story. Two, a team can sign Otani to a short-term deal with a forced non-tender clause, which most NPB free agents had in their contracts, so they’d become MLB free agents after just three or four years here. Hell, if I were GM of a contender with the cap room, I’d offer Otani one year at the maximum allowed salary and agree to nontender him at the end of the year.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/

[Pardon My Dinger]

I predict it will be the Marlins. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I predict it will be the Marlins. 

 

can't. tell. if. serious.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

can't. tell. if. serious.

I'm serious. Why not? 

[old nurse]

 

This is incorrect.  They usually sign them (have been signing them) to minor league contracts, but there is not a place that says that you cannot sign him to a major league contact.

To be able to sign an urestricted free agent contract the player has to have 6 years of service time in, MLB adjusted the IFA rules so that an IFA can sign one after they turn 25.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm serious. Why not? 

 

I'm guessing, since he isn't getting money right away, he cares about winning. The Marlins have new owners, and not a good team. I'm not sure it is a good fit for winning. And the culture would be totally unknown, since it will be new. I just don't see it.

 

West Coast, NY, Cubs, TX. Boston.

[jimbo92107]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/shohei-ohtani-babe-ruth-of-japan-60-minutes/

 

maybe?

[jimbo92107]

Good reason for Sano to stick at 3B. Then Otani can DH when he's not pitching...and maybe when he IS pitching. The American League makes more sense for this kid than the National. The DH would allow him to rest his arm between starts, except for batting. If he were to play corner OF, he could wear himself out during a long season, or crash into a wall running for a ball. 

[kab21]

 

Dave Cameron was bringing up some good points in his chat today. It'd be tough for an AL team to promise 2-way playing time. Especially if the bat can't play in a DH role. In the NL, he could at least PH for the pitcher on his days-off, or throw him in the OF.

 

Since he's forgoing hundreds of millions of dollars to be an MLB player now, I've got to imagine a team has to promise he'll be a 2-way player in order to make it to the negotiation table.  

Enter the Twins according to this logic. The Twins will unlikely sign a full time DH because they will continue to play Sano there for 50 games and Grossman/O(h)tani could be part of the revolving DH position. DH'ing Otani 50+ games is better than a PH role and that is a commitment that I would be willing to make to bring his pitching here.

And what level of commitment to an alright bat at DH makes it still worthwhile to add him to the starting rotation. Would you 'endure' 80 games of a DH that hits .725 OPS to sign him to what will almost certainly be a very undervalued contract?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Good reason for Sano to stick at 3B. Then Otani can DH when he's not pitching...and maybe when he IS pitching. The American League makes more sense for this kid than the National. The DH would allow him to rest his arm between starts, except for batting. If he were to play corner OF, he could wear himself out during a long season, or crash into a wall running for a ball. 

 

NL makes more sense. He gets to hit every 5 days, and he can PH for the other pitchers every game. He gets rest to be ready to pitch, but he still gets around 150-200 ABs in a year.

[Vanimal46]

 

Enter the Twins according to this logic. The Twins will unlikely sign a full time DH because they will continue to play Sano there for 50 games and Grossman/O(h)tani could be part of the revolving DH position. DH'ing Otani 50+ games is better than a PH role and that is a commitment that I would be willing to make to bring his pitching here.

And what level of commitment to an alright bat at DH makes it still worthwhile to add him to the starting rotation. Would you 'endure' 80 games of a DH that hits .725 OPS to sign him to what will almost certainly be a very undervalued contract?

 

Well, considering this year people like Escobar, Adrianza, Gimenez, and others were getting DH at-bats along with Grossman and Sano, I can see the logic. For the upside of that arm being in the rotation every 5 days, I would certainly be open to him getting 250+ PAs as a DH too. 

 

All of that said, I still think it's a very small chance the Twins are able to sign him. There's going to be other factors that cities can provide where Minneapolis falls short. Endorsements, a vibrant Asian community, other entertainment, etc. 

[bird]

 

How badly does he want to play here? So badly he'll give up hundreds of millions of dollars.....

 

 

 The 60 Minute piece on him included various interviews of teammates and others that led me to think he just might be one of those rare characters that thinks he can get by happily on ten million or so. He was living at the time in a very sparse dormitory room despite already having amassed plenty of wealth. Teammates said all he focused on was baseball. From the dorm to the fields and back, no partaaays. People also said he was dead serious about playing both ways. So who knows, maybe a squared-away organization that demonstrates a genuine commitment and rational plan to him gets his attention?

[kab21]

 

Well, considering this year people like Escobar, Adrianza, Gimenez, and others were getting DH at-bats along with Grossman and Sano, I can see the logic. For the upside of that arm being in the rotation every 5 days, I would certainly be open to him getting 250+ PAs as a DH too. 

 

All of that said, I still think it's a very small chance the Twins are able to sign him. There's going to be other factors that cities can provide where Minneapolis falls short. Endorsements, a vibrant Asian community, other entertainment, etc. 

I would definitely consider signing him unlikely but the Twins are actually in a position to use him as part of a rotating DH since they are unlikely to bring in a full time DH. But nobody really knows what motivates him.

[Vanimal46]

Otani is on the way! They agreed to a posting system with Nippon Professional Baseball and the MLB. 

 

 

The posting system will require any team that signs Otani to pay $20 million to his current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, at which point Otani will be free to sign with any MLB team he wants.

 

https://deadspin.com/hell-yeah-here-comes-otani-1820675691

[terrydactyls]

We already gave them Tonkin. Isn't that enough?

[laloesch]

 

Certainly sounds like it. "Hey Shohei, sign this reasonable contract now.... and, wink wink, we'll tear it up 6 months from now and pay you $200 MM" 

There would be a big uproar from the league if that happened. 

 

So they wait one year instead of six months.  Big issues with this.

[kab21]

This was a very entertaining thread to read all the way from the beginning.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

The CBA and the IFA cap is fairly irrelevant in this case.  The cap has to do with the bonus $ and not the contract $.   Most teams sign high level prospects to high bonuses but give them MiLB contracts, because they are not MLB-ready.

 

Otani is MLB-ready and could be signed to an MLB contract with zero or $1 bonus, so he will not affect a team's IFA cap.  This will be about the contract in years and $ and not about the signing bonus.

 

Looking at his numbers as a pitcher he looks a lot like Darvish and Tanaka did at a similar age, and slightly better than Dice-K.  The novelty is that he also hits and runs the bases.  I suspect that there are a lot of teams that will see this as an unnecessary risk, and Nishioka is a prime example that hitting in Japan does not always translate.

 

He might want to do both, but he might have to settle for a team that would sell novelty, instead of a competitive team

http://www.thecubreporter.com/international-signing-bonus-pool

 

Ahem...

 

"A player subject to ISBP restrictions cannot be signed to a Major League contract"

[Seth Stohs]

Per several sources on Twitter, Ohtani's group has told the Yankees that he will NOT sign with them...

[Twins33]

Per several sources on Twitter, Ohtani's group has told the Yankees that he will NOT sign with them...

Nice to have one down

[Twins33]

Heyman seems to be the only one saying it's not official, but also mentions the "small market" rumor which now may not be a rumor.

 

[Squirrel]

 

Per several sources on Twitter, Ohtani's group has told the Yankees that he will NOT sign with them...

 

Nice to have one down

 

Not only one down, but a big one down. I got my wish ... that even if he doesn't sign with the Twins I had hoped that at least it wasn't the Yankees.

 

I hope not the Dogers, Cubs and Red Sox as well ... but this is good and I'll take it, if true.