Shohei Otani

[Pardon My Dinger]

Sorry to keep drooling, but by now, I've seen the whole video. Goodness. He's an 8-tool prospect. He's like Ichiro with muscle, and he's like Chapman with junk. If the twins don't get him, I hope the dodgers do, so I can see him in person a bunch.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Sorry to keep drooling, but by now, I've seen the whole video. Goodness. He's an 8-tool prospect. He's like Ichiro with muscle, and he's like Chapman with junk. If the twins don't get him, I hope the dodgers do, so I can see him in person a bunch.

I probably watched the same video as you did. Very Ichiro like as far as his batting style goes. Ichiro did have some good power years before he came to the states, so I am not sure how well his power will translate to MLB. I just wanted to note that.

 

But one thing is for sure. When Otani becomes a MLBer, he will be a Super Star starting pitcher. He has some nasty ass **** and throws F'in HARD! He's still a kid for Christ sakes!

 

Oh yeah, mop up the floor when you are done PMD. (;

[Mike Sixel]

Eric
12:10 Is there anything in the CBA that would prevent a team from signing Shohei Otani to the restricted IFA bonus pool, and tear up the contract 6 months later with a new $150+ MM deal?

 

Dave Cameron
12:10 Yes. The CBA explicitly says you can't enter into an agreement to circumvent the international signing bonus rules.
12:11 But no one really knows how long is long enough to make it clear that it wasn't a pre-existing agreement. I wrote about that here. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlbs-other-shohei-otani-problem/

[Vanimal46]

 

Eric
12:10 Is there anything in the CBA that would prevent a team from signing Shohei Otani to the restricted IFA bonus pool, and tear up the contract 6 months later with a new $150+ MM deal?

 

Dave Cameron
12:10 Yes. The CBA explicitly says you can't enter into an agreement to circumvent the international signing bonus rules.
12:11 But no one really knows how long is long enough to make it clear that it wasn't a pre-existing agreement. I wrote about that here. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlbs-other-shohei-otani-problem/

 

We're both following the chat at the same time! Glad he answered my question on that one to clear the air here. 

[Willihammer]

Fangraphs commenter had a good idea for the Twins- get Otani, then use the DH spot for Center Field.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Fangraphs commenter had a good idea for the Twins- get Otani, then use the DH spot for Center Field.

 

I cringe laughed...

[Steve Lein]

That fangraphs article is making the exact points I have been:

 

"But it brings up an interesting question; for how long must Otani and the MLB team that signed him stick with the standard pre-arb contract? At what point could the league no longer argue that a long-term extension was a pre-arranged deal designed to circumvent the rules? Because it is no longer unusual for players to sign long-term extensions very early in their careers."

 

...

 

"we actually saw something not too different from that when Stephen Strasburg made his MLB debut on June 8th, 2010; he went 7 IP, allowed just 4 hits, didn’t walk anyone, and struck out 14. If the Nationals had started negotiating a new long-term deal with Strasburg immediately after that start, the league wouldn’t have had any leg to stand on to say “nope, you can’t do that.” 

 

So if Otani has some kind of spectacular debut, could the league really say that the team couldn’t have altered their risk assessment, and thought their best move was to give him a long-term deal before his price for an extension went up even more? Would owners really go for the league telling them just how long Otani has to play in the big leagues before a long-term extension would no longer be considered a circumvention of the bonus pools, when that restriction wouldn’t apply to any other player? If the Astros can sign Jon Singleton to an extension before he’s ever played in an MLB game, how could the league forbid whoever signed Otani from giving him a new long-term deal after he’s shown what he can do against MLB talent?"

 

...

 

"And I just don’t know how the league would police something like this. No one is going to be dumb enough to write any of this down, but it seems pretty easy for the team executives and Otani’s representatives to just talk in hypotheticals about what kind of value they might see in a long-term extension after Otani has proven what he can do in MLB. The league will do whatever they can to make sure there’s no actual guarantee in place, but as long as there’s nothing actually promised, I don’t know what the league could really do."

 

...

 

"But if Otani doesn’t want to wait two more years, and is confident that he’ll play well and stay healthy enough to make at least a few good starts in the big leagues, I don’t know how MLB can tell him or the team he signs with that they can’t do a long-term extension after he’s shown that he’s going to live up to the hype. Otani can’t be the only player in MLB not allowed to sign a long-term extension. The “circumvention of the rules” clause has to have an expiration date, and it’s not clear to me how that date would be able to carry past his first MLB start, or at least past his first few starts."

 

...

 

"I don’t know how MLB is going to prevent a sign-and-extend-in-a-few-months situation. They can definitely stop it from being a legally binding agreement in the actual contract, but given how prevalent early-career extensions have become, Otani might just be able to arrive in MLB in 2018 and still get a pretty large guaranteed contract not that long after. And while it might look like whoever got him circumvented the signing bonus rules with the extension, I don’t know you that the league could really stop a team from signing a player to a long-term deal once they’re already performing in the big leagues."

 

This is why I don't see this as a big of problem as it's being made out for Otani.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

"we actually saw something not too different from that when Stephen Strasburg made his MLB debut on June 8th, 2010; he went 7 IP, allowed just 4 hits, didn’t walk anyone, and struck out 14. If the Nationals had started negotiating a new long-term deal with Strasburg immediately after that start, the league wouldn’t have had any leg to stand on to say “nope, you can’t do that.” 

Well, at the time, there were no restrictions on draft spending, so there was nothing the Nationals would have been circumventing by signing Strasburg to an extension there.

 

Keep in mind, if Otani signs under age 25, he's locked into the whole system -- not just the bonus limit, but 2-3 years of MLB service until arbitration, 6 years until FA.  If a team signed him to an "extension" during those early seasons that seemed to ignore the incredible leverage that teams hold, it would be exceedingly obvious.

 

There would really be no way to get Otani a mega-deal for at least 2-3 seasons.

[Mike Sixel]

It just shows how bad:

 

these rules are for MLB teams to navigate

these rules are for human beings to get their value in compensation w/o arbitrary limits

[ashbury]

Fangraphs commenter had a good idea for the Twins- get Otani, then use the DH spot for Center Field.

 

But in case you or the commenter are: the DH rule is written specifically for the pitcher only.

[Steve Lein]

 

Well, at the time, there were no restrictions on draft spending, so there was nothing the Nationals would have been circumventing by signing Strasburg to an extension there.

 

Keep in mind, if Otani signs under age 25, he's locked into the whole system -- not just the bonus limit, but 2-3 years of MLB service until arbitration, 6 years until FA.  If a team signed him to an "extension" during those early seasons that seemed to ignore the incredible leverage that teams hold, it would be exceedingly obvious.

 

There would really be no way to get Otani a mega-deal for at least 2-3 seasons.

 

That articles spends its entirety telling you that this way of thinking about it is wrong.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That articles spends its entirety telling you that this way of thinking about it is wrong.

MLB and the commissioner have pretty wide-ranging power in this regard. I highly doubt they would let Otani sign a FA-like contract "extension" within a year or two of his initial contract. Or if they did allow it, it would come with some hefty punishments for the team.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think we know much of anything, other than his first contract won't be for more than 1 year, and it will be between $5 and $8MM. 

 

How long that contract is his only contract, how much that second contract will be for? We know nothing. We do know that if teams follow the spirit of the rules, he'll get around $5MM, and then tiny salaries for 2-3 years.....but we all know that won't happen.

[drjim]

 

I don't think we know much of anything, other than his first contract won't be for more than 1 year, and it will be between $5 and $8MM. 

 

How long that contract is his only contract, how much that second contract will be for? We know nothing. We do know that if teams follow the spirit of the rules, he'll get around $5MM, and then tiny salaries for 2-3 years.....but we all know that won't happen.

 

His first contract will be a minor league contract with a (limited) bonus. Will keep him controllable for 6 years, 3 pre-arb and 3 arb years.

 

An attempted workaround would be obvious, if he is extended for dollar amounts that would far exceed the value of those years for a similar player.

[ashbury]

An attempted workaround would be obvious, if he is extended for dollar amounts that would far exceed the value of those years for a similar player.

One of Bill James's early observations was that, the more outstanding the player, the fewer the comparables there are for him. This guy, perhaps DHing on his off-days from pitching, could be close to unique.

[drjim]

 

One of Bill James's early observations was that, the more outstanding the player, the fewer the comparables there are for him. This guy, perhaps DHing on his off-days from pitching, could be close to unique.

 

That's fair. If he is that unique and good, he might get a different type of extension. Though he's probably going to be a pitcher only.

 

It would be obvious manipulation if he played 1 year, then had a 5 year, $100mil extension, for instance.

[Bark's Lounge]

Otani will not pitch or hit in MLB until he is 25+. He is a exuberant young man who wants to be part of the big game, he might say something, but it certainly does not have to be true. There is way too much money to be left on the table. If it does happen, some agents need to be slapped in the face or worse. They will cost him over 100M+ dollars.

 

I do not see how it happens. Never.

[Willihammer]

 

That's fair. If he is that unique and good, he might get a different type of extension. Though he's probably going to be a pitcher only.

Why wouldn't he hit? He has all the leverage to make teams agree to something like that. 

[kab21]

 

Otani will not pitch or hit in MLB until he is 25+. He is a exuberant young man who wants to be part of the big game, he might say something, but it certainly does not have to be true. There is way too much money to be left on the table. If it does happen, some agents need to be slapped in the face or worse. They will cost him over 100M+ dollars.

 

I do not see how it happens. Never.

I see it happening and worthwhile. He gets his controllable years (and below market value anyway) out of the way earlier and then he can hit on the BIG CONTRACT as a 28 year old. And there is also the possibility that he can get the same clause that IFA have used to reach FA quicker (like Cespedes and several others).

That 100+M that he loses will be made up (AND THEN SOME) by gaining service time earlier.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

I see it happening and worthwhile. He gets his controllable years (and below market value anyway) out of the way earlier and then he can hit on the BIG CONTRACT as a 28 year old. And there is also the possibility that he can get the same clause that IFA have used to reach FA quicker (like Cespedes and several others).

That 100+M that he loses will be made up (AND THEN SOME) by gaining service time earlier.

You blew my ears out with that quote. You don't need to be so loud. When I see it, I will believe it. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Monkeypaws]

Well, here's an opportunity for the Twins to change the game from the current super specialization(left handed relief specialist) to best athletes(Babe Ruth).

 

I played baseball through high school, and the best pitcher was usually the best position player as well. Draft Hunter Greene to pitch ands play SS, sign Otani to pitch and DH. 

 

Fun thought.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

One of Bill James's early observations was that, the more outstanding the player, the fewer the comparables there are for him. This guy, perhaps DHing on his off-days from pitching, could be close to unique.

Unique is interesting. Certainly I see his ultimate upside as a starting pitcher, but Otani can probably hit in MLB. I'd like to see it as a baseball fan!

[kab21]

 

You blew my ears out with that quote. You don't need to be so loud. When I see it, I will believe it. Nothing more, nothing less.

Do you think he cares if he loses 100+ million at the beginning of his MLB career if he can get a possible 200-300M contract years earlier?

The faster he gets the cost controlled years out of the way the better for his earning power.

[Steve Lein]

 

MLB and the commissioner have pretty wide-ranging power in this regard. I highly doubt they would let Otani sign a FA-like contract "extension" within a year or two of his initial contract. Or if they did allow it, it would come with some hefty punishments for the team.

 

Again, that article spends all of its time pointing out that this is an extremely weird line for the MLB to try and draw in the sand, and that in reality they wouldn't have a case to stand on if everything went right for the player.

 

That's fine all you guys think the MLB has all the power here, but I don't think they actually do. Just my opinion.

[Mike Sixel]

My current guess is that he'll got to LAD or NYY, and they'll sign him to huge dollars pretty quickly, and the commissioner will throw up his hands and say the rules aren't clear, so he can't punish them. 

 

Otani gets fair money, MLB gets a huge international star in a huge media market, everyone* gets what they want.

 

*yes, even the smaller teams, who see more viewers in Japan and more value to all the teams over time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Again, that article spends all of its time pointing out that this is an extremely weird line for the MLB to try and draw in the sand, and that in reality they wouldn't have a case to stand on if everything went right for the player.

 

That's fine all you guys think the MLB has all the power here, but I don't think they actually do. Just my opinion.

Otani isn't a new phenomenon -- he's been around for a few years, and they just changed the rules in the latest CBA.

 

There has been zero precedent of a player signing a mega-contract within a year of his initial drafting/signing.  A few players have signed relatively cheap arb buyout extensions in the first year of MLB service, but that is a very different thing.  If Otani wants to sign an Evan Longoria deal early in his career, that's fine.  But he probably can't get a Tanaka deal next year.

 

There's no weird line in the sand here, a mega-contract for Otani within a year of his initial signing would be an obvious attempt to circumvent the rules they just set up with full knowledge of Otani's situation.

[Steve Lein]

 

My current guess is that he'll got to LAD or NYY, and they'll sign him to huge dollars pretty quickly, and the commissioner will throw up his hands and say the rules aren't clear, so he can't punish them. 

 

Otani gets fair money, MLB gets a huge international star in a huge media market, everyone* gets what they want.

 

*yes, even the smaller teams, who see more viewers in Japan and more value to all the teams over time.

 

Exactly. They're not going to stop something that benefits everyone involved (This has also been said in several articles I've read on the topic).

[Steve Lein]

 

Otani isn't a new phenomenon -- he's been around for a few years, and they just changed the rules in the latest CBA.

 

There has been zero precedent of a player signing a mega-contract within a year of his initial drafting/signing.  A few players have signed relatively cheap arb buyout extensions in the first year of MLB service, but that is a very different thing.  If Otani wants to sign an Evan Longoria deal early in his career, that's fine.  But he probably can't get a Tanaka deal next year.

 

There's no weird line in the sand here, a mega-contract for Otani within a year of his initial signing would be an obvious attempt to circumvent the rules they just set up with full knowledge of Otani's situation.

 

You're contradicting yourself here.

 

Yes he is a known quantity, but that's the crux...He is NOT a prospect who will have to work his way up through the minors first.The line in the sand I'm talking about is MLB is literally trying to say that Otani has to be treated differently. I don't think that can hold up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I see it happening and worthwhile. He gets his controllable years (and below market value anyway) out of the way earlier and then he can hit on the BIG CONTRACT as a 28 year old. And there is also the possibility that he can get the same clause that IFA have used to reach FA quicker (like Cespedes and several others).

That 100+M that he loses will be made up (AND THEN SOME) by gaining service time earlier.

 

As an under 25 player, Otani would not be negotiating a FA deal like Cespedes and others did.  He will be negotiating a bonus on the standard amateur player contract.

 

But if Otani waits just 1.5 years from this upcoming winter (he turns 25 in July 2019), he will be a complete FA and not subject to arb or pre-arb years of control (or at least, he can negotiate those things away in his FA contract).

 

It would be exceedingly odd for him to sign next winter and lock himself into 6 years of team control at pre-arb and arb prices for a very low capped bonus.  He would lose a ton of bargaining power, not just with the capped bonus, but also no chance of hitting the open market for 6-7 years.  Otani wouldn't hit FA until almost age 30 if he signed next winter, or almost age 31 if a team gave him the Kris Bryant treatment for an extra year of control.  And even if he got a big extension in that time, its value will be depressed because he won't be negotiating on the open market, but just with the one team that owns his rights.

 

I am sure there will be a lot of talk, but I would be surprised if Otani gave away all that leverage just to come stateside ~18 months earlier.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You're contradicting yourself here.

 

Yes he is a known quantity, but that's the crux...He is NOT a prospect who will have to work his way up through the minors first.The line in the sand I'm talking about is MLB is literally trying to say that Otani has to be treated differently. I don't think that can hold up.

 

What I meant was, MLB just changed the rule (increasing the age requirement to 25) knowing full well of Otani and his situation.

 

I don't think they are going to let Otani poke a loophole through their brand-new rule.

 

And changing the rule might be difficult, considering they just adopted it and the CBA won't be up for re-negotiation for a few more years.  (And of course, Otani isn't a surprise to them -- everybody knew about Otani when this new rule was put in place -- so it's not clear they'd even want to change it. Keeping Otani out until he is 25 seems to be exactly what they were trying to do, for whatever reason.)