Steven Gonsalves & Keith Law: Good but No Good

[caninatl04]

So, do we concur that Stewart and Gonsalves are two more # 4 starters of which we have an over abundance?

[Taildragger8791]

Potential plus or flashes plush. No one debated that Stewart needed to develop.

The scouting report I found said his slider was a 60 with potential to be a 70. That's plus and potential for plus-plus. It states it had good tilt and late diving action and was a definite out pitch at the next level.

 

That doesn't sound at all like the pitch we hear about now, which is now described as single-plane and weak contact-inducing instead of being strikeout caliber.

[ashbury]

So, do we concur that Stewart and Gonsalves are two more # 4 starters of which we have an over abundance?

This embraces a view of scouting that is a lot more accurate in its ability to forecast than I believe in.

 

That aside, if we do ever reach a glut of #4s, that will be a better situation we have now.

[Thrylos]

 

Well, if Gordon's the only Twins in the 41-60 range I would imagine that Klaw doesn't have Jay in his top 100. So that's five Twins, if I counted right (Kiriloff, Gonsalves, Stewart, Gordon and Romero). Aside from Jay, is there someone else that could sneak into a top 40 in the low minors?

 

Dias, Javier

[Thrylos]

 

It's very rare for a low-strikeout minor league pitcher to pan out at all. I did some looking at one point and wasn't able to come up with a SP comp that would show a path for Stewart. Maybe as a reliever.

 

Got to look at former Twins

 

career MiLB K/9:

 

Carlos Silva: 5.1

Nic_ Blac_burn: 5.4

Kohl Stewart: 5.9

Rick Reed: 6.0

(btw: Brad Radke: 7 and Joe Mays: 7.5)

[gil4]

 

Plus, if I had insider, I'd get even less work done.  

No kidding.  Can we make TD a pay site?

[sthpstm]

 

It's very rare for a low-strikeout minor league pitcher to pan out at all. I did some looking at one point and wasn't able to come up with a SP comp that would show a path for Stewart. Maybe as a reliever.

I've looked at this before. There were a few others, but the main one I recall is Dallas Keuchel.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Got to look at former Twins

 

career MiLB K/9:

 

Carlos Silva: 5.1

Nic_ Blac_burn: 5.4

Kohl Stewart: 5.9

Rick Reed: 6.0

(btw: Brad Radke: 7 and Joe Mays: 7.5)

 

At first glance those other pitchers kinda separated themselves with much lower walk rates than Kohl. Kohl usually hovers in the low 3's and ballooned to 4.3 per 9 in AA this year. The guys on that list were was closer to 2 per 9 most of their time and maxed out around 3 per 9 in a couple brief stints. So now we're looking for success cases with low strikeout numbers without impeccable control. The list just shrunk. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

He had Stewart, Gonsalves and Kiriloff in his 81-100 range. Gordon and Jay will probably be higher.

 

OP says Law sees no role for Stewart, yet names him to his top 100. A little confusing?

[Brandon Warne]

 

Well, I suspect that Klaw isn't scouting the stat lines and sees something - either directly or from scouts he trusts - that suggests a possible positive outcome.

 

There's no question about it. It's probably finding a feel for his slider moving forward in addition to a good fastball. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Dias, Javier

I like both of those guys but I'd be stunned if Klaw had them in a top 100 at this point.  Both are really good prospects who could break out. But they are still in short season ball.  

[King]

Law isn't very smart. I don't put much stock into what he says, or his rankings.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Law isn't very smart. I don't put much stock into what he says, or his rankings.

 

Very mature post. wow.

[King]

 

Very mature post. wow.

It's not immature. It could have been stated way worse than what I said. It's just my opinion of him. He's very stubborn in his ways and refuses to adapt, which is rather important.

[Doomtints]

 

I hate this idea for a few reasons - HS kids can't compete with college players, 

 

They already compete. The minors are full of both college and high school draftees performing at similar levels. Whether you get a good player out of HS our out of college, you can bank on him spending ~3 years in the minors.

[nytwinsfan]

 

It's not immature. It could have been stated way worse than what I said. It's just my opinion of him. He's very stubborn in his ways and refuses to adapt, which is rather important.

 

It's not so much immature as it is conclusory.

 

Law isn't very smart. I don't put much stock into what he says, or his rankings.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

he'll come around though.  Look at Gonsalves and Berrios. He had very little nice to say about either early in their careers.

[gunnarthor]

 

They already compete. The minors are full of both college and high school draftees performing at similar levels. Whether you get a good player out of HS our out of college, you can bank on him spending ~3 years in the minors.

They aren't performing at similar levels. That's why you see 8th round college pitchers put up video game numbers - in every org - when they pitch in the low minors. In the long run, the talent wins out but in the short run, it's not particularly close.

[markos]

FWIW, Law had Jay listed in his "Just missed" article. He said that his stuff has backed up a little bit compared to where he was in college, but he should be given another year as a starter before switching him back to relief.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6327

[Mike Sixel]

 

FWIW, Law had Jay listed in his "Just missed" article. He said that his stuff has backed up a little bit compared to where he was in college, but he should be given another year as a starter before switching him back to relief.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6327

 

thanks! for some reason, my insider isn't working today! 

 

So, still top 100ish....not great for that pick, but not a total loss either.

[Loosey]

 

I've looked at this before. There were a few others, but the main one I recall is Dallas Keuchel.

Corey Kluber similar.  But was much older than Stewart in the Minors.  Low K/9 rates, seems to be an OK Major Leaguer.  Kluber didn't make it until 25 years old.

[Thrylos]

 

I like both of those guys but I'd be stunned if Klaw had them in a top 100 at this point.  Both are really good prospects who could break out. But they are still in short season ball.  

 

Any idea where Buxton was ranked after short season ball?

[drivlikejehu]

 

Corey Kluber similar.  But was much older than Stewart in the Minors.  Low K/9 rates, seems to be an OK Major Leaguer.  Kluber didn't make it until 25 years old.

 

Huh? Kluber averaged more than a strikeout per inning in the minors.

 

Keuchel is a lefty, which makes a difference, plus his K rate per inning in advanced A was 7.21 compared to 5.72 for Stewart. In AA, 5.57 for Keuchel vs. 4.60 for Stewart. Keuchel was slightly older because he was drafted out of college, but also had less professional experience before reaching those levels as a result. 

[bluechipper]

Klaw put up his Twins report today: http://insider.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6475

 

He has Hildenberger all the way up at 12. Another interesting one is Juan Miranda at 16, saying he could have a 50 bat with 60 power.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Klaw put up his Twins report today: http://insider.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6475

 

He has Hildenberger all the way up at 12. Another interesting one is Juan Miranda at 16, saying he could have a 50 bat with 60 power.

 

wish I could figure out my issues with insider....heck, having issues getting ESPN to send me email correctly...

 

edit: and today it works!

 

He thinks Chargois, Melotakis, Reed, Light, and Meija will/might pitch for the Twins this year, but sees little in terms of position players because of how young they are. Garver not in his top 20....unless I missed it.

[gunnarthor]

 

Klaw put up his Twins report today: http://insider.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6475

 

He has Hildenberger all the way up at 12. Another interesting one is Juan Miranda at 16, saying he could have a 50 bat with 60 power.

Thanks for that.  Is Juan Miranda actually Jose Miranda, the shortstop we took last year in round 2?

[Thrylos]

Lewis Thorpe at number 8 after missing 2 seasons in a row is very perplexing

[bluechipper]

 

Thanks for that.  Is Juan Miranda actually Jose Miranda, the shortstop we took last year in round 2?

Oh yeah nice catch. I didn't notice the mistake when reading it or writing my comment. I now somewhat remember Juan Miranda from his brief time with the Yankees.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Thanks for that.  Is Juan Miranda actually Jose Miranda, the shortstop we took last year in round 2?

 

Indeed.  The same Jose Miranda who had a .600 OPS and 1HR in 213 PAs in the GCL last season.  And Law is talking about 60 power and 50 contact.  Not sure what he is smoking

[bluechipper]

 

Lewis Thorpe at number 8 after missing 2 seasons in a row is very perplexing

That is surprising. Klaw noted that he has shown the potential to have 3 plus pitches though. His numbers for a guy so young were very good and is still just 21 years old.