Passan: Dodgers Nearing Deal for Forsythe

[DaveW]

People can disagree, but I bet if you polled 100 front office people 95+ of them would tell you Dozier is the better player.

[Riverbrian]

 

Alvarez and Buehler are the scheduled replacements for McCarthy and Kazmir.  Deleon is blocked unless they want to at the contracts of McCarthy($20 million left) and Kazmir($32 million left).  Considering they're eating Carl Crawford's remaining $20 million this year, I can't see them doing that. I think they would sell Kazmir at 50 cents on the dollar and McCarthy at 70 cents on the dollar.  Stewart and Wood are insurance until Buehler and Alvarez are ready.  It's not an indictment on JDL.  My biggest concern with Deleon is that he's HR prone.  

 

You could be right but JDL is not blocked as long as he has 3 options left. If the Dodgers believe that DeLeon was as good as others say. It would have been very smart to simply stash him in AAA to replace whoever gets hurt and somebody always get hurt every year in every rotation.This leads me to think it's quite possible that if no trade happened... JDL may not have been the first guy they called up. 

 

Consider... JDL was the only name consistently mentioned in a Dozier trade... JDL was the guy that was actually traded to the Rays.

 

Here's the way that should look to us outsiders: JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL

 

I have no idea what happened but the one thing that seems very clear... JDL was the guy the Dodgers targeted for trade bait and I can't help but ask why him? As long as he has options... he is not blocked... He's incredible insurance in that case.  

 

JDL was the one they chose to trade. They... the Dodgers... Chose... to trade. All those arms and the only name consistently mentioned... JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL. 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

It doesn't change your point, but Buehler was actually chosen 24th overall. (Don't think the Dodgers have chose as high as 8th recently!)

 

Good point. Not sure who I was thinking about... maybe Carson Fulmer. I think I lumped those two together. I don't know. Either way, yes, the point remains the same. 

[jimmer]

 

People can disagree, but I bet if you polled 100 front office people 95+ of them would tell you Dozier is the better player.

The question would be, how much better.

[Kwak]

Somebody should keep track of what JDL does in 2017 and keep us posted.

[bluechipper]

 

The general consensus on the Dodger forums is, and I'm quoting a couple of people "eat it Twins!" (The FO, not the fans). IMO, the Twins are taking a HUGE gamble and I see a lot more downside than upside for the FO. Good luck, Twins fans.

Either way would be a gamble, especially if the Dodgers were only offering Deleon and lesser prospects.

 

The Twins are keeping their 42 HR second basemen. That's not that bad of an outcome.

[Riverbrian]

 

The general consensus on the Dodger forums is, and I'm quoting a couple of people "eat it Twins!" (The FO, not the fans). IMO, the Twins are taking a HUGE gamble and I see a lot more downside than upside for the FO. Good luck, Twins fans.

 

LOL     

[Otto von Ballpark]

When a pitcher at AAA with a k/9 > 10 is valued lower than a player coming off TJ surgery and a total of 5IP that sets off alarm bells in my head.

I don't think Buehler is necessarily valued higher by the Dodgers right now, in a strict literal sense. He is actually valued lower by everyone else because of his inexperience. If Buehler had been the top player offered for Dozier or Forsythe, there would have been even more calls for a significant second piece.

 

Because of that, it made more sense for the Dodgers to keep Buehler and hope some experience can bump his value/usefulness up to De Leon's level. Trading Buehler or Alvarez now would have been selling low, like the Padres did with Trea Turner a few years ago.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Somebody should keep track of what JDL does in 2017 and keep us posted.

 

Does the go-to labrum surgery doctor have a twitter account?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Steamer and ZiPS both like Dozier for almost 2 WAR more than Forsythe in 2017. They aren't even in the same category in terms of value.

The difference in Steamer projections is less than 1 WAR if you prorate them to the same number of PA's. They still "project" Forsythe in part based on his backup status from 3 years ago.

[markos]

 

You could be right but JDL is not blocked as long as he has 3 options left. If the Dodgers believe that DeLeon was as good as others say. It would have been very smart to simply stash him in AAA to replace whoever gets hurt and somebody always get hurt every year in every rotation.This leads me to think it's quite possible that if no trade happened... JDL may not have been the first guy they called up. 

 

Consider... JDL was the only name consistently mentioned in a Dozier trade... JDL was the guy that was actually traded to the Rays.

 

Here's the way that should look to us outsiders: JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL

 

I have no idea what happened but the one thing that seems very clear... JDL was the guy the Dodgers targeted for trade bait and I can't help but ask why him? As long as he has options... he is not blocked... He's incredible insurance in that case.  

 

JDL was the one they chose to trade. They... the Dodgers... Chose... to trade. All those arms and the only name consistently mentioned... JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL JDL. 

Or alternatively, JDL was the guy that every other team wanted due to his proximity to the majors and minor league success. 

[DaveW]

The question would be, how much better.

2-3 WAR per season is my guess.

[Twinfan603]

My emotions are conflcited right now. I don't love JDL and his specific red flags scare me, but barring some unexpected developments it's hard to point to a clear team to discuss Dozier with even in July; first, you need him to keep producing big numbers (not totally unreasonable but some decline from 2016 is likely), second, you need a team to suffer an injury or a serious underachiever, and third, you need that team to have the prospects, preferably pitching, that are good enough to pull the trigger on a deal.

 

 

However, I don't for a minute believe JDL+Alvarez was offered. If it was and the Twins tried to bargain for more for weeks on end, I highly doubt LA wouldn't have leaked that in an effort to show how crazy Minnesota was being. While the baseball world's view wasn't overly negative, a number of people did say anonymously that the Dodgers were being "stingy" with prospects, and the offer was described as "JDl+junk". I can imagine LA wanting to course correct industry view if they were really willing to deal their (arguably) 2 best pitching prospects in the same deal. I hope we know more details eventually, I'm just dubious anything better than JDL+Calhoun was ever seriously offered--and that's not a deal I'd take.

 

Here's hoping the 2017 draft goes well!

[jimmer]

 

2-3 WAR per season is my guess.

Doubtful, but hope so.

[Riverbrian]

 

Or alternatively, JDL was the guy that every other team wanted due to his proximity to the majors and minor league success. 

 

I won't dismiss that... but... to me... it still looks like: JDL JDL JDL JDL

 

He looks awfully hand selected to me. 

 

Disclaimer: My opinion is just as out of the loop as everybody else here. FWIW

 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

My thoughts:

 

1. I'm surprised that the Rays dealt Forsythe. 

 

2. Smart Move by the Dodgers... Dozier is clearly better in my opinion but Forsythe can't be sneezed at.

 

3. I still would rather eat Dozier than get less value out of desperation.

 

4. The Dodgers found another way to improve... The Twins can do the same.... it's just harder to see and it might take longer. 

 

5. The Sun will Rise Tomorrow... GO TWINS!!!  

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

It really doesn't suggest anything. The Dodgers I'm sure would have given the Twins a couple C prospects in addition to De Leon. That tweet says nothing about what quantity or quality was offered beyond De Leon, i.e. it doesn't help to evaluate the non-trade at all.

It's obviously not talking about C prospects. Deals aren't held back over two C prospects within reason. This clearly suggests the Twins were asking for 2 additional decent prospects.

 

That suggests to me -- maybe they were asking for too much? Maybe the Dodgers resisted including Stewart not because they valued him too highly to be the second piece in the trade, but because it wouldn't have satisfied the Twins demands anyway? Why offer Stewart or Calhoun if it's not even going to get the deal done? They already stuck their neck out quite a bit by offering De Leon.

 

Obviously it is hard to tell from here, but I can't help but wonder if the Twins didn't listen to this opportunity as much as they could have.

[PseudoSABR]

 

3. I still would rather eat Dozier than get less value out of desperation.

This. This would be the new regime's first 'big' move and such a desperate act would cast an outsized shadow over their future dealings.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another point: the Rays are pretty well-regarded in the pitching department. Does this one-for-one swap suggest that maybe we've been too pessimistic in our analysis of De Leon so far? The 2017 Rays have earned more benefit of the doubt on that front than, say, the 2012 Twins deading Span for Meyer straight-up.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Another point: the Rays are pretty well-regarded in the pitching department. Does this one-for-one swap suggest that maybe we've been too pessimistic in our analysis of De Leon so far? The 2017 Rays have earned more benefit of the doubt on that front than, say, the 2012 Twins deading Span for Meyer straight-up.

 

I think it says more about how valuable they think a 30-year old Forsythe is.

[Kwak]

 

My thoughts:

 

1. I'm surprised that the Rays dealt Forsythe. 

 

2. Smart Move by the Dodgers... Dozier is clearly better in my opinion but Forsythe can't be sneezed at.

 

3. I still would rather eat Dozier than get less value out of desperation.

 

4. The Dodgers found another way to improve... The Twins can do the same.... it's just harder to see and it might take longer. 

 

5. The Sun will Rise Tomorrow... GO TWINS!!!  

Nunez fetched an actual ML SP, I expect that a trade of Dozier would have a better return.

[TheLeviathan]

Well, let's hope Pumpkin Dozier doesn't come back.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Well, let's hope Pumpkin Dozier doesn't come back.

 

I'll take 1 month of Pumpkin Dozier in exchange for 3 months of Babe Dozier.

[jimmer]

 

Nunez fetched an actual ML SP, I expect that a trade of Dozier would have a better return.

Um, did Mejia ever pitch in the majors before the Twins gave him 2 innings? Nope.

 

De Leon had 4 ML starts , though two were horrible.  De Leon is more of a ML SP than Mejia is.

 

Going into 2016, Meija wasn't a ranked prospect. De Leon was a top 30 prospect.

 

So De Leon by himself IS a better return.(though, again, still not suggesting the Twins should have accepted JUST De Leon for Dozier).

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'll take 1 month of Pumpkin Dozier in exchange for 3 months of Babe Dozier.

 

Prior to those three months we had 2 months of Pumpkin and the second half of the previous year as well.

 

If dealing him is dead (and I believe it is for this offseason) than I'm rooting for Babe Dozier.  We now have to hope to get really lucky to make a deal happen that might approach this kind of value.  The past few years are not friendly for dealing hitters for packages centered on Top 30 prospects.  

 

So, here's to bucking the odds I guess.

[Kwak]

 

Um, did Mejia ever pitch in the majors before the Twins gave him 2 innings? Nope.

 

De Leon had 4 ML starts , though two were horrible.  De Leon is more of a ML SP than Mejia is.

 

Going into 2016, Meija wasn't a ranked prospect. De Leon was a top 30 prospect.

 

So De Leon by himself IS a better return.(though, again, still not suggesting the Twins should have accepted JUST De Leon for Dozier)

 

A better return than the Nunez trade.

[gunnarthor]

 

Another point: the Rays are pretty well-regarded in the pitching department. Does this one-for-one swap suggest that maybe we've been too pessimistic in our analysis of De Leon so far? The 2017 Rays have earned more benefit of the doubt on that front than, say, the 2012 Twins deading Span for Meyer straight-up.

I wouldn't think so. I don't think anyone says De Leon doesn't have the stuff to be a ML quality pitcher - some think ace, others a #3 or 4 but all say he has the stuff. The issue is durability and health and I don't think the Rays have any magic bullet for that. They are betting on him being healthy.

[jimmer]

 

A better return than the Nunez trade.

We got Meija for Nunez?  Are you talking about a different trade? I must be missing something. Certainly wouldn't be the first time.

[AZTwin]

I'm guessing the trade ends up being pretty meh on both sides here. Glad we didn't sell Dozier for pennies on the dollar. Let them try out forseth. I thought even he would pull del Leon and Stewart though

[Champuckett]

To all those that recognize we were wise not to trade Dozier 1:1 for DeLeon, many props.

 

Dozier is more valuable than one pitching prospect no matter what anyone says or what other team makes a yawn worthy trade. Dozier can still be traded mid season or next offseason. We need pitching, but not at the cost of our best player for one measly prospect. We will get pitching, it will happen, please be patient.

 

If Dozier starts out hot, we can Frank Viola him midseason, if not, then that's baseball.