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DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

DaveW

By DaveW
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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DaveW All-Star

DaveW

Old-Timey Member
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Hey guys, Fiance is coming home after being out of town all week, so I will prob be out of commission for the rest of the evening if you catch my drift......

Of course I mean:

/frantically cleans apartment top to bottom

//restocks bar

///lights 50 candles to get that whole "beef jerky" smell out of the house
/////passing out from cleaning fumes.



Will update this thread if I hear anything major though.

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jimmer Wichita Wind Surge

jimmer

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Bellinger is indeed looking less and less likely. I personally think you are over valuing both Stewart and Alvarez though..no offense.

Dozier absolutely MASHED last year, and would have hit damn near 50 bombs in any park IMO.
I think his power is very sustainable as well. 

Alvarez, on Fangraphs, is the Dodgers #1 prospect with Bellinger #2.  Stewart is their #7.  Lux is like 12th.

 

De Leon and Alvarez by without anyone else added to those two is a huge haul for 2 years of Dozier.

DaveW All-Star

DaveW

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Great job I must say.

Let's just hope the Emperor actually has some clothes though.

Again I would be shocked if this trade doesn't happen, this source doesn't let me down. But in the extremely rare chance it does happen, it's important to keep in mind these things sometimes do happen and things fall apart last second. It's never official til it's signed as they say.

I know this sounds like I am hedging things, but I'm not, just pointing it out.

I don't mind taking the ribbing if it doesn't happen though.

But it will. 

Book it.

DaveW All-Star

DaveW

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Alvarez, on Fangraphs, is the Dodgers #1 prospect with Bellinger #2.  Stewart is their #7.  Lux is like #12

But Alvarez IMO isn't a top 25 prospect in all of baseball or anything, I think he is closer to a 40-60 range guy.

Lonestar Draft Eligible

Lonestar

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Posted
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I'd be happy with De Leon, Alvarez, and Kirby P. Jr., and filler.

It depends on who you mean by Kirby Puckett Jr. because Sr. had/has a son named Kirby Jr.

 

If you mean Willie Calhoun, he is not a throw-in. According to MLB Pipeline, he's ranked #87 in the minors, ahead of Alvarez #91. MLB Pipeline ranks Calhoun 4th amonth Dodger prospects and Alvarez 5th.

 

I get the sense that the Dodgers don't want to add Buehler #7, Sheffield #8, Lux #9, Barnes #10, or Steward #14. DaveW, is there anyone else off limits.

 

I can sorta understand going for one of those off-limit types. But I would settle for Kelbert Ruiz #25 and Mitchell White #29.

 

Unnecessary but http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=la

HawkeyeDodger College Ball

HawkeyeDodger

Provisional Member
Posted
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But Alvarez IMO isn't a top 25 prospect in all of baseball or anything, I think he is closer to a 40-60 range guy.

Yet.  The Dodgers blew up their entire international signing pool for Alvarez and passed on Moncada so they could go after him.  He is a very young guy who hits 100 mph with a plus slider. Dozier had a great year but the Dodgers would take Kinsler first if they could.   

 

One thing about DeLeon.  He would have been up before Urias and Stewart if he hadn't sprained an ankle.  Once he finally returned he had a sore arm after a very dominant first outing at AAA.  The Dodgers shut him down to be careful.  He has a girlfriend that is a pro tennis player and the Dodgers had asked him to work on his body and they felt he actually lost too much weight while doing so.   So, it was kind of strange season for Deleon.

Lonestar Draft Eligible

Lonestar

Verified Member
Posted
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Bellinger is indeed looking less and less likely. I personally think you are over valuing both Stewart and Alvarez ...

So Stewart might be in play. Cool.
jimmer Wichita Wind Surge

jimmer

Verified Member
Posted
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It depends on who you mean by Kirby Puckett Jr. because Sr. had/has a son named Kirby Jr.

If you mean Willie Calhoun, he is not a throw-in. According to MLB Pipeline, he's ranked #87 in the minors, ahead of Alvarez #91. MLB Pipeline ranks Calhoun 4th amonth Dodger prospects and Alvarez 5th.

I get the sense that the Dodgers don't want to add Buehler #7, Sheffield #8, Lux #9, Barnes #10, or Steward #14. DaveW, is there anyone else off limits.

I can sorta understand going for one of those off-limit types. But I would settle for Kelbert Ruiz #25 and Mitchell White #29.

Unnecessary but http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=la

MLB.com prospect people traditionally rate players closer to the majors higher.  I don't have too much faith in their prospect lists, myself.  Just my opinion.

darin617 FCL Twins

darin617

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Dodgers just removed Charlie Culberson from their 40 man roster. Most likely meaning a free agent signings is about to happen soon. Hope it's Justin Turner and they feel like beefing up the offense by adding a power hitting 2nd basemen. By the way, Charlie Culberson was at the top of the Dodgers depth chart at 2nd base... I guess I am not a speedy typer.

twins_89 First Round Pick

twins_89

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Posted
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I think the fangraphs analysis basically confirms that Alvarez is a huge upside prospect who is a long ways from the majors. One of the key things to me is the roughly 70% chance that he doesn't even reach 1 WAR of production. Trading for a guy that far away is the ultimate high-risk high-reward type of deal and the risk needs to be considered. To me De Leon and Alvarez is a fair return (with some lesser 3rd prospect).

 

The difficulty in turning low A pitchers into major league starters has burned the Twins a few times in recent years. Based on fangraphs, Alex Meyer was at one point a better prospect than Alvarez is right now and we know how that turned out. Another example is Kohl Stewart who when drafted was the same level of prospect to Alvarez but has since dropped quite a bit as he moved through the system.

 

The point is that while Alvarez might be considered a better prospect than De Leon or Bellinger his trade value is lower due to the extremely high bust rate for young pitching.

jimmer Wichita Wind Surge

jimmer

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

I think the fangraphs analysis basically confirms that Alvarez is a huge upside prospect who is a long ways from the majors. One of the key things to me is the roughly 70% chance that he doesn't even reach 1 WAR of production. Trading for a guy that far away is the ultimate high-risk high-reward type of deal and the risk needs to be considered. To me De Leon and Alvarez is a fair return (with some lesser 3rd prospect).

 

The difficulty in turning low A pitchers into major league starters has burned the Twins a few times in recent years. Based on fangraphs, Alex Meyer was at one point a better prospect than Alvarez is right now and we know how that turned out. Another example is Kohl Stewart who when drafted was the same level of prospect to Alvarez but has since dropped quite a bit as he moved through the system.

 

The point is that while Alvarez might be considered a better prospect than De Leon or Bellinger his trade value is lower due to the extremely high bust rate for young pitching.

Perhaps.

darin617 FCL Twins

darin617

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Most likely either Justin Turner or Kenley Jansen resigning with the Dodgers. But why dump a player who was #1 on the depth chart for 2nd base if they are not looking to improve at that position.

gil4 FCL Twins

gil4

Verified Member
Posted
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It has been almost 27 hours now.  I think the trade was held up for four hours to punish Dave for spilling the beans.  Expect the announcement at 7:19 pm  CST.  (I guess that makes the next delay my fault.)

HawkeyeDodger College Ball

HawkeyeDodger

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

 

Most likely either Justin Turner or Kenley Jansen resigning with the Dodgers. But why dump a player who was #1 on the depth chart for 2nd base if they are not looking to improve at that position.

Culberson has a guranteed contract if he accepts his demotion to AAA.   He knows darn well that he isn't going to be the starting 2B for the Dodgers next year.  If he's a good boy and accepts the outright to AAA , he will get every opportunity to make the team next year in ST.  He spent most of the year at AAA but was on the NLDS roster.  So his demotion doesn't mean that it has to be for someone who plays 2B.

DJSim22 College Ball

DJSim22

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

They need pitching MLB ready or close to MLB ready.  It would be a mistake to have one of the main players coming back in this trade 4 years out.  Someone smarter than I am told me decades ago that a prospect is not really a prospect until they reach AA.  They need to get this trade right, this is not the trade to go for :upside".

Hosken Bombo Disco All-Star

Hosken Bombo Disco

Community Moderator
Posted
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Again I would be shocked if this trade doesn't happen, this source doesn't let me down. But in the extremely rare chance it does happen, it's important to keep in mind these things sometimes do happen and things fall apart last second. It's never official til it's signed as they say.

I know this sounds like I am hedging things, but I'm not, just pointing it out.

I don't mind taking the ribbing if it doesn't happen though.

But it will. 

Book it.

Seems similar to the Gardy situation last year. 

 

No reason to believe Gardy's deal to manage Detroit wasn't 99% completed, but having an unknown blogger break the news too soon (even though other reputable outlets later confirmed the deal) was probably a little embarrassing. Might have led to Avila nixing the offer.

DaveW All-Star

DaveW

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Dozier for anyone like De Leon (or, I can dream, Urias), on the 40-man, should be a non-event for their roster management. This must be something else?

Likely will be for Turner.

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