Sickels: Byron Buxton Crystal Ball

[Seth Stohs]

John Sickels at Minor League Ball posted a crystal ball, attempting to predict the career of Byron Buxton.

 

Take a look at it and discuss what you think? There are some really strong years with teh Twins and another team...

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/11/12/13511462/crystal-ball-byron-buxton-of-minnesota-twins

 

[terrydactyls]

John Sickels at Minor League Ball posted a crystal ball, attempting to predict the career of Byron Buxton.

 

Take a look at it and discuss what you think? There are some really strong years with teh Twins and another team...

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/11/12/13511462/crystal-ball-byron-buxton-of-minnesota-twins

Based on this projection, why the heck did the Twins draft him? I think he will outperform this prediction significantly.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Based on this projection, why the heck did the Twins draft him? I think he will outperform this prediction significantly.

Couple that offensive production with gold-glove defense in center field, and it doesn't seem too bad.

 

I do think Buxton will steal a lot more bases, and hit more home runs.

[Mike Sixel]

Those Twins' years, with GG defense? All Star type numbers.....

[HitInAPinch]

Weird.  But fun read. 

 

Buxton progressed a good amount in the latter part of the season.  I think it at least 1 season too soon to look into a Crystal Ball.

[beehles]

Where are the triples!!?? I think he'll average 10 or more...I think these projected numbers are probably a safe floor which wouldn't be terrible. I expect he'll be better

 

 

[nicksaviking]

I'd have to think the SB are low particularly considering the projected uptick in OBP.

 

I like the quickly declining K rate.

 

I wonder what he's getting at with him going to Atlanta? At this point Buxton would become a free agent in 2022, this has the Twins losing him in 2023. So do they trade him, or do they only buy out one free agent year? He has a projected (guessed) OPS of .788 next year and over .800 in 2018 and 2019, if the Twins don't look to lock him up long-term after that I would be disappointed.

 

Ha, but no criticisms as it isn't like Sickels sits around thinking about the Twins all day. Twins fans are probably more likely to read between the lines more than they are supposed to here. 

[Steve Lein]

I think he's selling him well short of the amount of triples he'll be able to rack up in Target Field, but other than that I'd be happy.

 

I've said this before, but think he'll be the next 20/20/20/20 guy, which only four guys have ever done, and one is named Willie Mays.

[mikelink45]

I do not see reality in this.  The projections are based on what?  Let Buxton continue to grow, give him next year to figure out the system and move forward, then project.  For now I would give a gut reaction that the BA is too low, that the CB has not really figured out how to project a player like this.

[Taildragger8791]

I don't know that the SB numbers are all that low. Even if Buxton brought his average and on-base numbers up to say .270/.340 levels and continued to attempt (~20%) and succeed (~80%) to steal at his career rate he'd still only fall in around 25 steals a year. He'd have to see big uptick in attempt rate or OBP while keeping his success rate near 80%, which seems tough to do. It'll depend on how much better he gets at reading pitchers and situations, which is learnable to a point, but in my opinion the great base-stealers just seem to have that instinct innately on when and how to run.

[Loosey]

 

I wonder what he's getting at with him going to Atlanta? A

I think it's him being from Georgia, so crystal ball says he goes "home".  That's how I read it anyways.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think it's him being from Georgia, so crystal ball says he goes "home".  That's how I read it anyways.

 

Me also

[Riverbrian]

With his speed... I'd hope for at least one or multiple years with 50 swipes providing he stays reasonably healthy for the year. 

 

If he can't reach the 50 SB level during a healthy season with projected increased OB. It would signify a lacking of the ability to learn and progress or... our coaching staff isn't very good at helping the process along or strategically stifling him. 

 

Nunez stole 40 this year... Buxton should be able to out-swipe Nunez. 

[ScrapTheNickname]

It's fun, but like reading a person's tombstone with date of death already chiseled in.

[Tomj14]

So BJ/Melvin Upton with a longer career? I am hoping for better than those numbers.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think it's him being from Georgia, so crystal ball says he goes "home".  That's how I read it anyways.

 

Yeah, I get that part, I'm just not sure about the timing. He's set to be a free agent in 2022 not 2023.

 

As far as I can tell.

[diehardtwinsfan]

These are just fun, but pure speculation.  Go look up his crystal ball on Phil Hughes. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

that said, quite a few seasons with 800+ OPS.  Those aren't bad projections... not Trout like that some of us thought he'd be, but hardly bad.

[Thrylos]

.788 OPS, 1175 R in 18 seasons, and 256 SB in 18 seasons, by the guy who is supposed to be the fastest in the game and a(n almost) consensus #1 prospect for baseball

 

That sounds like a Mike Cameron career: 17 seasons, .782 OPS, 1064 R, 297 SB

 

Mike Cameron was an one time AS and 3 time GG winner.  And not a cornerstone that you build your team around...

 

Would I be disappointed if Buxton has this kinda career?  Depends on whether the Twins trade him for someone(s) with better careers, sooner rather than later

[drivlikejehu]

Cameron had 4 seasons above 5 WAR and 7 above 4. He was underrated during his career because the value of his defense wasn't recognized to the extent it would be today. Very, very few players achieve that kind of success. No, it's not superstar-level, but there's a reason superstars are rare - even among the players who are hyped as such prior to reaching MLB.

 

Sickel's projection is actually optimistic, in the sense that Buxton's struggles at the plate revealed his potential downside and we really have no idea how it will play out.

[Loosey]

I still see Andrew McCutcheon like production from him at some point but slightly less power and OBP, better fielding and more Stolen Bases.

 

I think most would accept that type of career sans 2016.  

 

So far McCutcheon is a:

5 time All-Star

1 MVP

1 Gold Glove

 

 

 

[King]

He has a chance to be a special player right now due to his defense and baserunning. In all likelyhood he will never be the player people thought he would be when he was a top MLB prospect. Not many are. But they key to that will be improving his plate discipline. His contact rates right now suck, to be frank, and his swinging strike % is absurdly high. He might improve a little bit, but the chances are against him that his plate discipline will never be that good.

 

If he can even be a league average hitter (100 wRC+ or better) with his speed and baserunning. That would be a great outcome, and a great baseball player. Here's hoping!

 

 

 

[King]

 

Cameron had 4 seasons above 5 WAR and 7 above 4. He was underrated during his career because the value of his defense wasn't recognized to the extent it would be today. Very, very few players achieve that kind of success. No, it's not superstar-level, but there's a reason superstars are rare - even among the players who are hyped as such prior to reaching MLB.

 

Sickel's projection is actually optimistic, in the sense that Buxton's struggles at the plate revealed his potential downside and we really have no idea how it will play out.

Good post, sir. I agree.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Based on this projection, why the heck did the Twins draft him? I think he will outperform this prediction significantly.

 

What? This is a stud in the making based on what Sickels posted.