Doc's Framework for 2017

[DocBauer]

Right up front, let me say I'm not putting as much effort in to exact trade scenarios or dollar amounts spent for my 2017 plan. There are a few reasons why, but primarily because our new FO has been on the job for only a couple of days and there is just so much we don't know yet about their intentions for 2017, the market hasn't even started yet, (for trades or FA), and as someone stated, Leviathan I believe, there is just so much fluidity at this point to be toon exact at this time. But I think it's very possible to lay the groundwork for 2017.

 

The Twins have money to spend to augment the team, no question. But not only is the FA class this season down, especially where the Twins need it most in the area of SP, but to be real, unless someone has guaranteed playing time, any of the top FA on the market probably aren't going to be looking to join a 103 loss, rebuilding team. What the new FO has to be looking for is solid bargains on the rebound, guys who might later be flipped, but who don't block anyone while filling a need. And guys who can play and need a job but won't be the high demand FA a contending team will be looking to add...generally.

 

Additionally, I have a hard time seeing our brand new FO wanting to jump in to big and long term contracts while taking over a rebuilding and mostly young team without having the opportunity to really see and learn what they have.

 

TEAM TRADES:

 

I have no problem keeping E Santana if the market suddenly dissolves. But I believe he has real value to a team out there who is looking to contend. However, I believe his value is for a couple quality prospects, not anyone ready to open the season with the Twins. Nobody has a top young, ML ready SP that they are going to move for Santana. But a couple quality prospects isn't too much to ask or expect for a quality, veteran SP on a fair contract.

 

Dozier moving on is a solid move, though I hate to lose him, as I'm sure the new FO would as well. But it makes too much sense to not trade him away. Initially, some of the top team targets would appear to be the Mets, Pirates and Dodgers. These three teams may actually have a need for Dozier, also cost controlled, and enough pitching depth to be able to send back the Twins way. (I could also see a decent addition on the Twins side, AA or lower pitching prospect, for a better overall return in the package)

 

POSITIONS:

 

Catcher: I'd love to sign Castro for catcher. My feeling is the market for him won't be cheap, and again, he may not be comfortable signing with 103 loss team. I could see signing Avila. He's experienced, bats LH, and could probably be had on a decent 1 year deal, 2 at most. I have a very good feeling about Garver overall. Based on draft position, decent milb performance and a solid job with the Yankees, I don't believe he's as bad as what he showed last season. I also don't mind Centeno back on a milb deal.

 

Answer: Avila and Garver, unless Murphy breaks with the team to give Garver a little more AAA time.

 

Infield:

 

1B: A healthy Mauer is at 1B, but can't play daily. I'm going with Vargas as a 1B/DH over Park. Vargas is young, has talent and potential, is out of options, and needs to play. Park has options and is coming off injury and disappointment. (It's also possible Park gets his chance anyway with Mauer getting injured again).

 

2B: Polanco

 

SS/Utility: A healthy Escobar is in play here. But with Dozier gone, there is a hole here. I like the idea of an inexpensive Cozart trade, even for 1 year. It would buy the Twins time, provide a high quality defensive player, and could possibly be re-signed. But I'm far more in favor of signing the 33yo Drew. He can hit a little, is a solid fielder at both 3B and 2B, and he and Polanco and Escobar provide a solid 3-some for the keystone as well as back up 3B.

 

3B: Sano. He could stand to be in better shape, but mostly, he needs time and opportunity. He's the man at 3B.

 

OUTFIELD:

 

This is pretty simple, initially. Rosario is young, talented and dangerous, if undisciplined. He still has less than 800 ML AB. Let the guy play! Buxton is a defensive stud, has tremendous potential, is only scratching the surface, and may have been starting to come in to his own somewhat at the end of 2016. Again, let him play! Kepler surprised me with how quickly he came up, and how well he performed, and I'm a fan/believer. He has all the talent in the world to hit, get OB, provide power with decent speed and quality defense. But also, he needs to play.

 

But I'm not crazy about Grossman as the 4th OF. I want some who can hit from the RH side to offset the LH bats of Rosario and Kepler, and who brings enough to the table to be solid playing for stretches if anyone is hurt, or needs any AAA time. I've heard Gomez mentioned a great deal, but I think he's not only looking for a starting position, but also a big pay day and multiple years, reportedly. He may not be a good fit.

 

My primary target is Raja Davis. I'd look hard at Austin Jackson as perhaps a better option and fit. Someone mentioned Angel Pagan, 35yo, but solid.

 

PITCHING:

 

Rotation:

 

Gibson

Traded For (Dozier trade)

Santiago (solid, LH, worth keeping to begin the year)

Berrios (needs to pitch, is a top prospect for a reason)

May (he fits better here, has ability and potential)

 

Possibles include Hughes if and when healthy, Wheeler finally getting a shot, and Duffey. Various reports during the season had Duffey actually throwing a serviceable change, but losing fastball command. He's should still be a rotation option.

 

Bullpen:

 

I'm targeting Storen or Neftali Perez for a closer spot. Both are under 30, both good bounce back candidates that could be flipped, and possible re-sign candidates. I'm going with Feliz because he's a year younger than Storen and the previous Texas connection between him and our new GM. I like the idea of a veteran addition to help stabilize the bullpen while all the younger guys settle in, gain experience, and aren't necessarily pressured in to the closers role.

 

Feliz

Chargois (very possibly the closer by the second half)

Pressly (he's shown me enough to like him)

Duffey (still a SP candidate, but provides talent and real depth here)

Audition Candidate (Baxendale, Hildenberger, Reed, Jones, etc. Tonkin?)

Rogers

Boshers (best option for now, until Melotakis or unless another LHFA signing)

 

In a nutshell, I'm playing our young OF but signing an experienced 4th OF who I feel can play, and who I can count on. I've got a 4 man infield I like and can even rotate, with Mauer at 1B with Vargas backing up and playing DH,and Park on hold. Catcher is Garver and the veteran Avila with Murphy insurance if Garver isn't ready. As of right now, Grossman is my last guy on the bench. He is a 5th OF who can DH/PH.

 

I know it's not a complete plan with all the names and numbers, but it's a workable framework that blocks nobody, provides additional developmental time for a few guys, fleshes out the roster, provides depth and even a couple flip possibilities.

[Vanimal46]

Thanks for putting this together Doc. Though we have different ideas on how to handle the overhaul of the pitching staff, I'm on board with getting a new C, SS, and 4th OF. Rajai Davis or Angel Pagan are guys I'd also like to target if Carlos Gomez is indeed looking for multiple years. 

A slick fielding SS would certainly help as Sano takes his lumps at 3B full-time too. 

[Mike Sixel]

This is a good, general, outline, imo.

 

C and 4th OF need to be defensive players.....please. 

 

SS is tricky for me, as I think Gordon is a yearish away, so I don't want to block him.

[DocBauer]

Absolutely agree on defensive SS to help Sano at 3B, the pitching staff, and overall defense. Hard to really gauge, at this time, how far away Gordon still is. And I don't want to block him, of course. But is Escobar the answer for the next year or two? Could be. But even if we or the Twins believe so, with Polanco graduating to the ML level and Dozier gone, we need depth at least. Drew wasn't my original choice, but I've really come around on him as a perfect fit. I might even consider a 2 year deal.

[DocBauer]

EDIT: in my original post, under catcher, I mentioned liking Garver a lot, then referenced Murphy as not being as bad as he showed last season. I omitted his name accidentally. Sorry for any confusion.

[zenser]

I tend to agree with most of this.  One area that I have seen in most of these blueprints rarely involves Tonkin and is hoping on one of the young guys to really step up in spring training.  If no one does, I would not hesitate to give Tonkin a month or two and let one of those younger guys really try to separate themselves in AAA.  If one of them does, I have no beef cutting ties with Tonkin.  We know what he is and I don't think he will be anything different.

[Brandon Warne]

If you want someone to offset the bats of Kepler and Rosario from the left side, Grossman is probably a good fit.

 

There's a reason Molitor hit him third against lefties. Grossman hit .344/.418/.576 against them this season.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If you want someone to offset the bats of Kepler and Rosario from the left side, Grossman is probably a good fit.

 

There's a reason Molitor hit him third against lefties. Grossman hit .344/.418/.576 against them this season.

 

The problem is that my three year old could play LF almost as well.  His diving attempts will be cuter, but about the same level of efficiency as a fielder.

[Vanimal46]

 

If you want someone to offset the bats of Kepler and Rosario from the left side, Grossman is probably a good fit.

 

There's a reason Molitor hit him third against lefties. Grossman hit .344/.418/.576 against them this season.

I'd prefer someone who's better defensively than an inflatable tube person out in the OF though...

[Brandon Warne]

He's never been a good defensive outfielder, but it seems as though 2016 was at least somewhat of an outlier. 

 

I mean, I get it. But all I'm saying is that if Grossman isn't a fit as a bat to help manage the amount lefties eat up Rosario and even more specifically, Kepler, then no one is. 

[ashbury]

The problem is that my three year old could play LF almost as well.  His diving attempts will be cuter, but about the same level of efficiency as a fielder.

I'd prefer someone who's better defensively than an inflatable tube person out in the OF though...

I tell ya, ladies and gentlemen, this left fielder gets no respect. No respect at all.

 

http://www.drcirceo.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/image.jpg

 

_{^{(For the record, I don't like Robbie's defense either.)}}

[Loosey]

I am working on my blueprint as we speak and Cozart is one of my trades I am making.  I am still trying to determine who would be given up.  The Mariners almost got him at the deadline for an A - ball prospect, who put up pretty darn good numbers last year as a 19 year old.  

[Mr. Brooks]

He's never been a good defensive outfielder, but it seems as though 2016 was at least somewhat of an outlier.

 

I mean, I get it. But all I'm saying is that if Grossman isn't a fit as a bat to help manage the amount lefties eat up Rosario and even more specifically, Kepler, then no one is.

I have to agree with the previous 2 posters.

It's unfortunate, because you are right- his bat does profile pretty well for what we need there, but his defense is below the line of what is acceptable under any circumstances.

 

I'm not sure I can buy it being an outlier. Unless he was playing injured, I don't see how defense could slump. I get that the metrics can vary from year to year, but I think that has more to do with the inexact way those are measured than it does anything else.

[DocBauer]

Agreed on Grossman as a fielder, overall, though I admit to not actually viewing that many games in which he started. But, of course, that is why I have him on your team as the 5th OF. He won't play the field that often...but he can.

 

But I like him as a bench bat. If I KNEW Plouffe would be used as a role player by Molitor, I could get behind bringing him back, at least initially. But I just don't think he's a good fit at this point, or that Molitor would see him that way.

[DocBauer]

I am working on my blueprint as we speak and Cozart is one of my trades I am making. I am still trying to determine who would be given up. The Mariners almost got him at the deadline for an A - ball prospect, who put up pretty darn good numbers last year as a 19 year old.

I'm sticking with Drew because he costs money but not a prospect. Drew can work with Polanco and Escobar to make a nice keystone combo, and at least 2 of the 3 can play an OK 3B as well. But I wouldn't bash to Cozart move at all. Great defense, some offense, Escobar would be an excellent utility guy playing quite a bit, and you could always look to maybe re-sign Cozart, so I don't know that he's ONLY a 1 year player for us.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Am I the only one who expected a much longer post?

[HitInAPinch]

 

The problem is that my three year old could play LF almost as well.  His diving attempts will be cuter, but about the same level of efficiency as a fielder.

 

Can he hit a curve?

[DocBauer]

Am I the only one who expected a much longer post?

HILARIOUS!

 

Love it! Guess I gotta save something for later.

[HitInAPinch]

Good Stuff, Doc!

 

I'm leaning more into the 'trade Dozier' crowd.  A couple 'soon to be ready' pitching prospects for Dozier.  Maybe a couple AA-type prospects for E ? 

 

If prioritizing defense at SS is the plan, I would contemplate trading Escobar.  Not sure what his market value would be, but a SS with some pop in his bat and does decent work at the position should have some value.

 

 

[DocBauer]

Good Stuff, Doc!

 

I'm leaning more into the 'trade Dozier' crowd.  A couple 'soon to be ready' pitching prospects for Dozier.  Maybe a couple AA-type prospects for E ? 

 

If prioritizing defense at SS is the plan, I would contemplate trading Escobar.  Not sure what his market value would be, but a SS with some pop in his bat and does decent work at the position should have some value.

What I don't know yet, and none of does yet, is just how much trade power Dozier has. Is he worth that top young SP who is ML ready, preferably with at least a cup of coffee already? Or that guy and maybe another quality AA or A+? Or is the team better off sweetening the pot with a solid milb arm SP or RP to bring back said ML SP and stud A+ caliber also in the deal?

 

I wouldn't trade Escobar. He's still relatively young and has skills. I'm not on board with the "trade everyone over such and such an age" when some guys could have 2,3,4,5 good years in them. He could be a solid starting SS for us, or a heck of a nice utility guy who plays a lot. We're already going to be down one infielder with a Dozier trade.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What I don't know yet, and none of does yet, is just how much trade power Dozier has. Is he worth that top young SP who is ML ready, preferably with at least a cup of coffee already? Or that guy and maybe another quality AA or A+? Or is the team better off sweetening the pot with a solid milb arm SP or RP to bring back said ML SP and stud A+ caliber also in the deal?

I wouldn't trade Escobar. He's still relatively young and has skills. I'm not on board with the "trade everyone over such and such an age" when some guys could have 2,3,4,5 good years in them. He could be a solid starting SS for us, or a heck of a nice utility guy who plays a lot. We're already going to be down one infielder with a Dozier trade.

 

If you want ceiling, the further down you go, the more you can get. It's about risk/reward and there's a ton at the A/A+ level. As Ryan said, once they hit AA, it's much harder to get them. Dozier could probably get a guy like Glasnow (much less risk at this point), because as ceiling goes, Dozier is  established it and shown he can reach it, all while being under contract at an affordable rate. He can get several Justus Sheffields, because those guys, while not a dime a dozen, carry quite a bit more risk, time, and quite simply there are more of them. 

 

Dozier has value, just as AJ did when Ryan traded him. The difference was that Ryan hit on all of the guys that he traded for AJ and AJ failed in SanFran.  That is why that trade was lopsided. There was still risk there for Brian Sabeen, but he rolled a snake eyes.

 

Odds and positional value determine trade value. Dozier has that at this point.  Santana does as well.

[HitInAPinch]

 

What I don't know yet, and none of does yet, is just how much trade power Dozier has. Is he worth that top young SP who is ML ready, preferably with at least a cup of coffee already? Or that guy and maybe another quality AA or A+? Or is the team better off sweetening the pot with a solid milb arm SP or RP to bring back said ML SP and stud A+ caliber also in the deal?

I wouldn't trade Escobar. He's still relatively young and has skills. I'm not on board with the "trade everyone over such and such an age" when some guys could have 2,3,4,5 good years in them. He could be a solid starting SS for us, or a heck of a nice utility guy who plays a lot. We're already going to be down one infielder with a Dozier trade.

 

Yeah, how much MLB prizes pitching over position players is kinda hard to figure out.  For Dozier, and if we're talking about MiLB player in return, I would want at least 3 player in return?  1 short-term MLB ready pitcher plus 2 AA pitching prospects or  1 AAA pitching prospect + 2 AA pitching or catching prospect.

 

I was just throwing out Escobar as a possible trade because the Twins should be bringing up a few more MiLB players and there's gonna be some backfilling needed.  I like Escobar.

[DocBauer]

Yeah, how much MLB prizes pitching over position players is kinda hard to figure out.  For Dozier, and if we're talking about MiLB player in return, I would want at least 3 player in return?  1 short-term MLB ready pitcher plus 2 AA pitching prospects or  1 AAA pitching prospect + 2 AA pitching or catching prospect.

 

I was just throwing out Escobar as a possible trade because the Twins should be bringing up a few more MiLB players and there's gonna be some backfilling needed.  I like Escobar.

I like your idea for a return, but I wonder if it's a little steep? I say this not because I don't believe in Dozier's value, plus a cheap 2 year contract to whoever would get him, but after reading Seth's article on the top performing 2B for last season, I wonder if the sheer number of quality 2B out there doesn't lower his value a bit. Of course, that's not to say all of these other guys are available!

 

I would be very content with that top, young SP who is ready, or has had hisome initial cup of coffee even, and is projectable, plus a top pitching prospect in A ball. A throw in from the Twins, maybe one of various relief prospects perhaps, might improve or solidify said lower level prospect.

[blindeke]

Best plan I've seen yet!