Should the Twins consider signing Jeremy Hellickson?

[Ernestfickle22]

With the world series going into its final game (if the cubs win) tonight free agency will be fast approaching if Jeremy Hellickson doesn't resign I feel this could be a great move for a team desperate for pitching. Now what kind of deal could bring a decent middle of the rotation guy here, this is where I feel it gets tricky I personally wouldn't sign him for more than two years and over 13 mil. the ideal deal for me would be 2 years 9 mil each year with a club option. If everything works out  He could make a great addition to the back of the Twins rotation.

 

I will leave links to his baseball reference page and please tell me what you think! have a great day.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hellije01.shtml

 

 

P.S. this being my first post here I just wanted to say i'm excited to be part of this great community and thank the creators of the website for helping to bring all of us together here! 

 

[TheLeviathan]

Welcome aboard.  I might take a flyer on Hellickson, see if he can salvage his career.

[beckmt]

No, No, No.  Way overpay, with a couple of good years here and there.

[Thrylos]

No.  Hellickson is a good number 4 in a competing team and the Twins have plenty of those.  I'd rather keep Gibson at this point.  The first 3 years of his career Hellickson's ERA was about a point lower than his FIP and then it caught up to it.  Hellickson's career FIP is 4.30, Gibson's 4.21.  They are the same age.  K/9 is pretty close, 6.8 to 6.1.

 

Which actually makes me think that if Hellickson is the best FA pitcher out there, and Gibson (with 3 years of team control) looks very comparable, the Twins should be selling Gibson pretty aggressively, because there will be takers.

[jimmer]

No

[clutterheart]

Uhg.  Why not just make a trade for Ricky Nolasco?  He could be a good back end guy too

[HitInAPinch]

 

Uhg.  Why not just make a trade for Ricky Nolasco?  He could be a good back end guy too

Upon further review:  No.  Just, just no....

[HitInAPinch]

First of all:  WELCOME!  Twins Daily has been a great community for me to follow.   I've learned more about Advanced Statistics than I ever thought I would.

 

If this were anytime other than a rebuilding year,  I would consider signing Hellickson.  But there are contracts to be considered on the current staff, a real need to get Berrios off to a good start next year and a need to see if any other MiLB starter is near ready.  

 

Basically, try not to slow down the rebuild.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Welcome to the board! I hope you enjoy the discussions!

 

I wouldn't sign Hellickson. I don't think he is a true upgrade over what the Twins already have, and signing him would cost us our 2nd round pick, which will be a VERY high pick in the 2017 draft. I'd be more afraid of losing the draft pick even over the money that would be going towards a pitcher without top of the rotation upside.

[Mike Sixel]

Welcome to the board. It is tempting, but I'm not sure he has the UPSIDE that I'd want to take a risk on. If signing him does cost him a pick, I am 100% opposed.

[Vanimal46]

 

Welcome to the board! I hope you enjoy the discussions!

 

I wouldn't sign Hellickson. I don't think he is a true upgrade over what the Twins already have, and signing him would cost us our 2nd round pick, which will be a VERY high pick in the 2017 draft. I'd be more afraid of losing the draft pick even over the money that would be going towards a pitcher without top of the rotation upside.

Hmm, initially I was on board with giving Hellickson a chance. If a 2nd round pick is involved, now I'm leaning towards passing on him. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Hmm, initially I was on board with giving Hellickson a chance. If a 2nd round pick is involved, now I'm leaning towards passing on him. 

 

Well it's a given he will get a QO from Philadelphia, right? If he doesn't, then he probably gets an even larger contract.

Course, the CBA may change this rule. If that is the case, who knows what the offseason holds.

[Vanimal46]

 

Well it's a given he will get a QO from Philadelphia, right? If he doesn't, then he probably gets an even larger contract.

Course, the CBA may change this rule. If that is the case, who knows what the offseason holds.

You're probably right that they'll give him a QO. And if I were Hellickson, I'd accept the QO without question. No one else is going to come close to offering $16-17 million, whatever the value the QO is this season. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

You're probably right that they'll give him a QO. And if I were Hellickson, I'd accept the QO without question. No one else is going to come close to offering $16-17 million, whatever the value the QO is this season. 

 

I think a lot of teams would offer 3-4 years at 15-17 million per. He is arguably the best free agent starter on the market (Rich Hill and Ivan Nova as well) and all teams really need pitching. He may not get the 18 million dollar QO over the course of 5 years, but I can see why he would want to sign a longer term deal at 16 per. He wouldn't necessarily help a team like the Twins who need to go young and try to acquire top of the rotation arms. But for a team that needs a #4 to eat innings, I could definitely see the appeal, especially with youth on his side.

[alarp33]

In most years of free agency with many starting pitching options, where a guy like Hellickson may be the 8th or 10th best option, I would be in favor of trying to sign him to a 1 year prove it deal, maybe $10 million.  

 

With this free agency class, where he's likely to get WAY more than that, and possibly have a draft pick attached to him? No way

[jimmer]

I think a lot of teams would offer 3-4 years at 15-17 million per. He is arguably the best free agent starter on the market (Rich Hill and Ivan Nova as well) and all teams really need pitching. He may not get the 18 million dollar QO over the course of 5 years, but I can see why he would want to sign a longer term deal at 16 per. He wouldn't necessarily help a team like the Twins who need to go young and try to acquire top of the rotation arms. But for a team that needs a #4 to eat innings, I could definitely see the appeal, especially with youth on his side.

is the market for a #4 starter set at around 15-17M for 3-4 years? Seem pricey

[gunnarthor]

Hellickson isn't a guy I think the Twins should go after.  He's never pitched 190 innings and left his last start of the year with a (mild) knee injury.  Doesn't seem like a safe bet.  The fact that either he or Ivan Nova are probably the best FA starters means we shouldn't really expect much help from free agency. And some team will over pay for those guys anyway.  

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

is the market for a #4 starter set at around 15-17M for 3-4 years? Seem pricey

 I don't know if the typical market is set like that. But, he is a top 3 free agent starter available, and with demand where it is, I can absolutely see that being where he is set to receive. Can't you? I mean, if only 1 team wants him then he probably wouldn't make that much. But if 7 teams want him, and the qualifying offer is just over 18 million now, I can absolutely see that amount (or more) going to Hellickson.

 

Just not from the Twins.

[jimmer]

I don't know if the typical market is set like that. But, he is a top 3 free agent starter available, and with demand where it is, I can absolutely see that being where he is set to receive. Can't you? I mean, if only 1 team wants him then he probably wouldn't make that much. But if 7 teams want him, and the qualifying offer is just over 18 million now, I can absolutely see that amount (or more) going to Hellickson.

 

Just not from the Twins.

i would be incredibly shocked if he got a contract like that, or even close,but I suppose it could happen. Contracts have gotten way past out of hand.

[gunnarthor]

 

 I don't know if the typical market is set like that. But, he is a top 3 free agent starter available, and with demand where it is, I can absolutely see that being where he is set to receive. Can't you? I mean, if only 1 team wants him then he probably wouldn't make that much. But if 7 teams want him, and the qualifying offer is just over 18 million now, I can absolutely see that amount (or more) going to Hellickson.

 

Just not from the Twins.

I think his AAV will be less than that but I do think some team would give him four or five years.  He might get something in the the Garza/Nolasco/Santana/Jiminez/McCarthy 4yr/50mish type deal.

[Ernestfickle22]

 

I think his AAV will be less than that but I do think some team would give him four or five years.  He might get something in the the Garza/Nolasco/Santana/Jiminez/McCarthy 4yr/50mish type deal.

That is very true yeah if that's what he's after I don't think he's worth that if that's what he would want then I would say no lets just call up Jason Wheeler. But if he doesn't get many offers chances are he could sign a team friendly deal.  

[Doomtints]

Hellickson would be the type of player Ryan would target.  I'm not saying targeting him is wrong.  If the Twins feel they don't have enough internal options to start games and he'll take a 1-year deal during the Twins rebuild then go for it.  

[laloesch]

 

Hellickson would be the type of player Ryan would target.  I'm not saying targeting him is wrong.  If the Twins feel they don't have enough internal options to start games and he'll take a 1-year deal during the Twins rebuild then go for it.  

 

I would have made a move like this 4 or 5 years ago when we needed additional starters to supplement what we already had.  These kinds of moves do not make sense for a rebuilding team that is early in the process.  Just doesn't.

[Ernestfickle22]

 

No, No, No.  Way overpay, with a couple of good years here and there.

that's w

 

No.  Hellickson is a good number 4 in a competing team and the Twins have plenty of those.  I'd rather keep Gibson at this point.  The first 3 years of his career Hellickson's ERA was about a point lower than his FIP and then it caught up to it.  Hellickson's career FIP is 4.30, Gibson's 4.21.  They are the same age.  K/9 is pretty close, 6.8 to 6.1.

 

Which actually makes me think that if Hellickson is the best FA pitcher out there, and Gibson (with 3 years of team control) looks very comparable, the Twins should be selling Gibson pretty aggressively, because there will be takers.

that is a good idea I wouldn't be opposed to the twins trading Gibson but I think they should hang on to him until the deadline see what kind of year its going to be.   

[Ernestfickle22]

 

Hellickson isn't a guy I think the Twins should go after.  He's never pitched 190 innings and left his last start of the year with a (mild) knee injury.  Doesn't seem like a safe bet.  The fact that either he or Ivan Nova are probably the best FA starters means we shouldn't really expect much help from free agency. And some team will over pay for those guys anyway.  

you make a very valid point 

[Linus]

No. The twins have too many back of the rotation types as is. They need to target quality.

[laloesch]

 

No. The twins have too many back of the rotation types as is. They need to target quality.

 

Agreed no reason to target more #4 types and pay big bucks for them at this point.  Just doesn't make sense to me anyways.

[iTwins]

He does seem like a guy the old regime would go after. 

 

I'd say the Twins have enough pitchers of his caliber. I'd say pass and focus on addressing the top of the rotation.