Article: Early 2017 Draft Prospects

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Yeah I can't see the Twins cleaning house completely. If anything wouldn't they just want to be adding/doubling the amount of staff they have, and then let chips fall where they may? New GM, new Scouting Director, new director of minor league development, double the amount of scouts (for example) and then let the people in the current roles stay on if they choose with different titles. Then, over the next 2-3 years, work it all out at that point?

 

You put new leaders in charge and then you let them evaluate what they have over the course of a year. If scouts leave, I anticipate it being because they have other opportunities rather than being forced to go. 

[bird]

 

If anything, I expect Falvey to add positions to the scouting department early on.  I'm not expecting a whole lot of blowing it up that far down... at least right off the bat.  Some guys will eventually be let go, but that won't likely happen before June. 

 

As for this, yes, I think you have to get the ace.  But keep in mind that this was the same reason that we took Stewart a few years back, and that hasn't developed the way we'd have hoped.  There's risk there. Green may have the most upside, but he's going to need to spend more time in the minors than say those Vandy pitchers. I'm not against that, but what this tream really needs is for one of those Vandy pitchers (or another college pitcher) to take a big leap forward leaving us with a sure fire college ace.

 

 

Didn't most experts view Kohl Stewart's upside as more likely a #2? I recall that a majority of them thought there was a dropoff after the first three picks. And still, consensus was he was the best pitcher to select as the fourth pick and that it was a very solid pick by the Twins. Clint Frazier was selected next. But imagine the uproar had the Twins passed on a stud pitcher with Stewart's pedigree in favor of another toolsy outfielder.

[Willihammer]

There is no need to overthink it IMO. Just go with the Golden Spikes winner.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Willihammer

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Didn't most experts view Kohl Stewart's upside as more likely a #2? I recall that a majority of them thought there was a dropoff after the first three picks. And still, consensus was he was the best pitcher to select as the fourth pick and that it was a very solid pick by the Twins. Clint Frazier was selected next. But imagine the uproar had the Twins passed on a stud pitcher with Stewart's pedigree in favor of another toolsy outfielder.

 

I'm not saying Stewart was a bad pick.  That's the guy I wanted them to take at 4, and for much the same reasons you cited. The upside though was a #1, as the talk was that he could have 4 pitches rated + or better.  He obviously hasn't lived up to that at this point, though it was clear he was very raw (and again, this was hardly news).  I haven't given up on him, but I do admit at this point the luster is off of him.

 

that said, the real issue with a guy like Green has more to do with the idea that he's going to need time in the minors. I don't have a problem taking him based on that ceiling if they are comfortable that he will be an ace, but I would say that it would be unreasonable for us to expect him to be in the majors in two years.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I'm not saying Stewart was a bad pick.  That's the guy I wanted them to take at 4, and for much the same reasons you cited. The upside though was a #1, as the talk was that he could have 4 pitches rated + or better.  He obviously hasn't lived up to that at this point, though it was clear he was very raw (and again, this was hardly news).  I haven't given up on him, but I do admit at this point the luster is off of him.

 

that said, the real issue with a guy like Green has more to do with the idea that he's going to need time in the minors. I don't have a problem taking him based on that ceiling if they are comfortable that he will be an ace, but I would say that it would be unreasonable for us to expect him to be in the majors in two years.

 

I remember talking to a scout about Stewart very early in the process and the word "risk" came up a ton. He was a prep right-handed thrower who was still learning how to pitch. The ceiling was incredibly high and the floor was pretty low. Greene is different. He's been working his whole life to be a major league baseball player. He could be a Greinke-like pitcher. There's also a chance he could be a Correa-like shortstop. Like Stewart, his ceiling is super high... but his floor is much higher than Stewart's.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Jeremy, none of us say it enough, but thank you for the work that you do on here. It is always good discussion, and reading about the potential players is exciting. I appreciate it.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Jeremy, none of us say it enough, but thank you for the work that you do on here. It is always good discussion, and reading about the potential players is exciting. I appreciate it.

Thanks. I appreciate it. And I hear it enough to know it's worth continuing.

 

(On a completely different note, I am going back to school for another degree... so my time is being spread thinner. I'll still be around - but likely less active - on Twitter and here. I'll still try to bring #KnowledgeBombs from time to time.)

[gunnarthor]

 

Thanks. I appreciate it. And I hear it enough to know it's worth continuing.

 

(On a completely different note, I am going back to school for another degree... so my time is being spread thinner. I'll still be around - but likely less active - on Twitter and here. I'll still try to bring #KnowledgeBombs from time to time.)

Another degree?  You know the Librarian isn't a real job, right?

[Monkeypaws]

Grrene certainly looks the part - he also looks like the kind of player a team like the Twins are only going to get through the draft.

[T_J]

There is no way the the Falvey. Is going to come in an blow the entire thing up in his first season. I have been in the military and also worked for major fortune 500 companies and when new leadership come in the direction take shape over time. New leadership has to use the existing infrastructure for the initial push into a new direction for a smooth transition. Most people get it, it's business, but they are still people. On top of that, there is severance to prepare budgets to plan more people to hire departments close and departments open. He is going to have to review performances. He is going to have so much to do plus his current team is working on a World Series and if they get far, he is going to have even less time to a house cleaning. The team turnaround is not going to be all that long, they should be in a position to play October baseball in three years. Let's let it all play out over the next full season and see the direction this guy goes. A major business transaction is not easy, I have been working for a major company that has done it successfully so far and when you are working through it, you just have to buy into it, and trust that the person they hired is capable to pull it off. End of rant.

[wagwan]

the stewart pick is not a good comp. if you lòk back on the draft there was no one else to pick at #4. it just was t a good draft0

[Loosey]

 

He could be a Greinke-like pitcher. There's also a chance he could be a Correa-like shortstop. 

If his natural ability is as great as he shows, would any team be willing to let him actually pitch and play Shortstop?  

His ceiling would end up being lower at both due to not be able to specialize, but imagine the roster flexibility if you have a very good starting Shortstop and a #2 type starter in the same person.

 

OR would you rather have an ACE pitcher Cy Young type candidate or All-Star Shortstop? But only one or the other.

[ALessKosherScott]

My gut feeling is I really like Faedo's delivery and stuff. Ditto Greene.

 

I'd like Kendall if he could put up a junior year where he walks more than he strikes out. But right now I'd prefer Schwarz or Harrison as a college hitter. 

 

Wright seems like a safe bet. But a safe bet to be what is my question? Kyle Gibson?

 

[Mike Sixel]

Pinstripe Wizard: Is a guy like Hunter Greene more valuable because of his versatility, or would it behoove him to focus on one area? Which position to you prefer him at? Is your opinion the consensus across baseball?

 

2:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Mound. I think some like him more at SS than I do but I haven’t spoken with anyone who prefers him there rather than on the mound.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The reason why you don't see two way players is due to development. They need time in the field, time on the mound, and time in the cage. Kind of hard to do that when plenty of other guys are spending said time focusing on the mound or the field/cage.  The other problem is that after a long start, I don't see an option for anything other than pinch hitting for a couple of days. His arm certainly wouldn't be ready for SS action after throwing 100 pitches 2 days prior. That's not how it works. I think with a guy like Greene, they have to go with the skills that are most likely going to make Greene a star. 

[Thrylos]

If the draft was done today, I'd take Alex Scherff.  Two plus pitches (one borderline plus plus) and an above average third pitch at 18 years old, is hard to pass.

 

Might change my mind by June, but Scherff's up for me... 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

If the draft was done today, I'd take Alex Scherff.  Two plus pitches (one borderline plus plus) and an above average third pitch at 18 years old, is hard to pass.

 

Might change my mind by June, but Scherff's up for me... 

 

Scherff's a guy for sure. I ran this group by a number of scouts and most agreed on the four... one said they had a few more preps up high and Scherff and Adell are likely two of the prep pitchers.

[nicksaviking]

 

The reason why you don't see two way players is due to development. They need time in the field, time on the mound, and time in the cage. Kind of hard to do that when plenty of other guys are spending said time focusing on the mound or the field/cage.  The other problem is that after a long start, I don't see an option for anything other than pinch hitting for a couple of days. His arm certainly wouldn't be ready for SS action after throwing 100 pitches 2 days prior. That's not how it works. I think with a guy like Greene, they have to go with the skills that are most likely going to make Greene a star. 

 

Yeah, look at Roy Hobbs. He was a stud two way player but didn't make it to the majors until he was like 35, and it seemed like he must have had to give up pitching anyway! Also, he looked waaaaaaay older than that, closer to 50, that much development time must really take it's toll.

[operation mindcrime]

the stewart pick is not a good comp. if you lòk back on the draft there was no one else to pick at #4. it just was t a good draft0

Too bad Kris Bryant didn't fall to us!

[gunnarthor]

 

Too bad Kris Bryant didn't fall to us!

Yeah, but we knew he wouldn't.  IIRC, the consensus was the Twins would nab the pitcher that was left - Appel, Gray or Stewart.  There was some discussion of the two Georgia OFers but they were secondary to pitching.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

Keith Law answered my question in his chat today.

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Cory

 

Why should my Twins take Hunter Greene #1 in the draft, over Wright/Faedo or a position player

 

I'm not sure they should do that, as good as Greene is. There's certainly risk there, HS pitcher risk as well as questions about how good the breaking ball is going to be down the road.

      17:35

[Cory Engelhardt]

Related question in Law's chat today...

 

Any other names moving up your list for '17 that could unseat Kendall or Greene? Seems like those guys are almost sure bets to go top 2 or 3.

 

Those are the clear top 2 for me. Wright is right up there. Adell has the tool set to make a big run up the board, but he's not going to face great competition in the spring and I think some teams will consider him too risky for a pick that high.

[Bob Sacamento]

Starting next week I will be in Jupiter for the Perfect Game WWBA World Championship.  Last year saw the likes of first rounders: Matt Manning, Ben Rortvedt, Alex Kirilloff, Jason Groome, Josh Lowe, Delvin Perez, Carter Kieboom, Cole Ragans.

 

Of the Top 50 HS players (rated by PG), the majority will be playing in the tourney:

 

2 Jordon "Jo" Adell OF
4 DL Hall LHP
6 Hans Crouse RHP
7 Alejandro Toral 1B
10 Conner Uselton OF
14 Calvin Mitchell OF
16 Tanner Burns RHP
17 Nick Allen SS
18 Brady McConnell SS
21 Cole Brannen OF
22 Adam Hall SS
23 Jeremiah Estrada RHP
25 Mitchell Stone LHP
26 Garrett "Hunter" Ruth RHP
27 Kyle Jacobsen OF
28 Mervyl "MJ" Melendez C
30 Mark Vientos SS
31 Drew Waters OF
32 Jayson Gonzalez MIF
34 Caleb Sloan RHP
36 Oraj Anu OF
37 Jordan Anderson OF
38 Jacob Pearson OF
40 Terriez Fuller OF
42 Ricardo De La Torre SS
43 Luis Campusano C
45 Jacob Gonzalez 3B
46 Logan Allen LHP
47 Tim Elko 3B
48 Philip Clarke C
49 Johnathan Rodriguez OF
50 Heliot Ramos OF

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Beer was the best player in America... but he struggled with USA Baseball. You're right though, he's the next big thing.

Beer has a great stroke and bat, saw him play last year in the WWBA and he was very impressive.  If he didn't graduate early and attend Clemson he would have been a first rounder last year.

 

Video I took of him hitting in the cage a year ago:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aqgX-l4o-w

[Oldgoat_MN]

In 2006 the Dodgers drafted a kid out of High School named Clayton Kershaw. He spent 220 innings in the minors before throwing 107 innings in MLB for the Dodgers in 2008. 

 

Strasburg was drafted in 2009. In 2012 he threw 159 innings in MLB.

 

They are not all Kershaws or Strasburgs, of course. But neither are they all Kohl Stewarts. 

 

If Green has the right work ethic and talent, draft the kid.

[gunnarthor]

 

In 2006 the Dodgers drafted a kid out of High School named Clayton Kershaw. He spent 220 innings in the minors before throwing 107 innings in MLB for the Dodgers in 2008. 

 

Strasburg was drafted in 2009. In 2012 he threw 159 innings in MLB.

 

They are not all Kershaws or Strasburgs, of course. But neither are they all Kohl Stewarts. 

 

If Green has the right work ethic and talent, draft the kid.

In the first round of that 06 draft, 8 HS pitchers were taken.  Two have amassed more than 1 WAR in the majors.  Nine of the 16 college arms taken in the first round have amassed more than 1 WAR in the majors.  Drafting HS pitchers is risky.  I'm good with drafting HS arms but it's important to remember that they don't always work out and it's not necessarily because the team can't develop pitchers.  There's a lot that can go wrong and a lot worse possibilities than what Kohl Stewart has shown so far.

 

(And Strasburg was considered a nearly perfect college pitcher who could step into a ML rotation from day one.  Not really fair to compare him to a HS pitcher who was working mostly on his football game).

Edited October 14, 2016 by gunnarthor

[Kepler Verge]

I'd take Greene, based on this vid.  Looks erratic, but great stuff.  This kid is in high school?!

[Vanimal46]

 

I'd take Greene, based on this vid.  Looks erratic, but great stuff.  This kid is in high school?!

Quoted you to say I love your user name! 

[Bob Sacamento]

Didn't know where else to put this but the Orlando Scorpions, a perennial traveling baseball powerhouse, will be teaming up with the Minnesota Twins for the WWBA World Championship in Jupiter next week.  It doesn't mean the team holds any rights to the players, or anything like that, but the players will all be in Twins uniforms which ain't too bad but in theory it gives them a leg up on knowing some of the players.   Historically, the Scorpions had teamed up with NY Mets.  In the past only a few MLB teams have Scout teams at the WWBA.  This year is a different story as the Twins, Padres, Mets, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, Reds, Rays, Marlins and Blue Jays all have Scout teams in the WWBA.  While the Padres are the only team that is managing the club.

 

The roster for the Twins/Scorpions will be 2017 HS prospects:

 

Rk  Name   Position

47 Tim Elko 3B
58 Jack Leftwich RHP
71 Reese Albert OF
77 Christopher Seise SS
92 Calvin Greenfield C
102 Tyler Ahearn RHP
104 Mason Doolittle C
111 Dalton Wingo OF
113 Justin Farmer OF
120 Raymond Gil 3B
138 Jake Molle C
139 Brady Smith C
201 Anthony Servideo SS
226 Donovan Benoit 1B
227 Micheal Pelaez 1B
237 Cameron Robinson RHP
248 Clemente Inclan 3B
300 Michael Spears OF
324 Griffin Bernardo 3B
415 David Vazquez SS

[Bob Sacamento]

I know there is always Minnesota-centric fans here so I'll say congrats the Minnesota Blizzard Blue for making it to the WWBA Championship.  There are

 

[table]Name Pos. Ht Wt B/T Yr. School Hometown Commitment
Cole Albers SS RHP 6'1' 175 R/R 2017 Champlin Park Brooklyn Park, MN
Brock Anderson LHP OF 5'11' 180 L/L 2018 Alexandria Area Alexandria, MN
Dylan Criquet-Danielson SS 2B, 3B 6'2' 175 R/R 2017 Marshall Marshall, MN Oklahoma
Seth Halvorsen SS OF, RHP 6'1' 180 R/R 2018 Heritage Christian Acadamy Plymouth, MN Missouri
Erik Holloman RHP SS 5'8' 170 R/R 2017 Mounds View Shoreview, MN
Michael Jensen RHP 1B, 3B 6'5' 205 R/R 2017 Holy Family Cath Eden Prairie, MN Oklahoma
Nicholas Juaire C 2B 5'8' 175 S/R 2018 Lakeville North Farmington, MN
Cam Kline OF 3B, OF, RHP 5'9' 150 R/R 2017 Forest Lake Stacy, MN
Nick Onomiya C 1B 6'1' 190 R/R 2017 Cretin Derham Hall St. Paul, MN
Gabriel Pilla RHP 6'1' 220 R/R 2017 Academy Of Holy Angels Bloomington, MN North Dakota State
Will Rog 1B 3B, OF 5'11' 185 R/R 2017 Totino-Grace Shoreview, MN
Jordan Schramel RHP 3B, OF 6'1' 175 R/R 2017 Delano Delano, MN
Zachary Smith C OF, RHP 5'10' 180 R/R 2017 John Marshall Rochester, MN North Dakota State
Tommy Springer OF RHP 6'3' 190 R/R 2018 Eastview Apple Valley, MN Missouri
Jack Zigan RHP 6'1' 190 R/R 2017 Eden Prairie Eden Prairie, MN
[/table]

 

The top two prospects (2017  MLB draft) are #283 ranked Michael Jensen RHP and #450 Dylan Criquet-Danielson SS leading the club