Can the Twins Afford to Release Mauer?

[Kwak]

 

Just a hypothetical then: You're the GM and the manager flat out tells you that Joe Mauer is going to bat 3rd and will be his full-time 1B in 2017 come rain or shine and you can't stop him from setting his lineup. You can make any player moves you wish but you cannot make a managerial move.

The use of "leaked information". "Whisper campaigns" indicating discontent in the clubhouse, organization. Falvey could set Molitor up as a fall guy by having others complain about his losing decisions, policies, management style. Therefore, when the team starts losing (again), Molitor is blamed and Falvey must replace him "for the good of the team". This strategy has been used elsewhere most effectively--it would work here also.

[nicksaviking]

 

I quit my job and go back to Cleveland. And yes, I'm serious about that.

 

If the manager is dead-set against your strategy, you're his boss, and he dictates policy to you, that's not a place I continue to work, particularly if my skills are in-demand and I have plenty of other opportunities.

 

It just kind of feels like this is the case. Not that Molitor is or would be insubordinate, just that he has that option available to him should he so choose.

 

Pohlad should have never made that decree. If he absolutely wanted to mandate that his GM keep Molitor, it should have been a private matter which would allow the new GM to look like it was his decision. Now with any GM/manager disputes, public or private, the manager has all the leverage.

[Major League Ready]

Mauer is not part of the solution.  Hopefully, the new regime will act accordingly, including Molitor.  Falvey may not be able to fire Molitor next year but he is not the right man for the job if he cant persuade Pohlad to act like an organization that is rebuilding.  This includes all of the appropriate parties being on the same page in terms of building the next contender.  In other words, Falvey should be able to influence the direction of the club and these decisions regardless of his ability to terminate Mauer.

[DrNeau]

 

Sigh.  Never gonna happen.  Threads like this become tiring after a while.

 

Automatically inserting the following stats into the 3-hole, as a rule, is tiring:

 

Joe Mauer's Ranks - 2016 MLB 1B (of 23 with qualifying ABs):
* OPS: 19th
* Hard-Hit Balls %: 23rd (LAST)
* Home Runs: 22nd (next to LAST)
* RBIs: 23rd (LAST)
* Isolated Power: 22nd (next to LAST)
* SLG: 22nd (next to LAST)
* Extra-Base Hits: LAST (ESPN)

[Willihammer]

"Mauer is not part of the solution" is a bad excuse for rebuilding. The Nats and Jays reached the Championship series with Justin Smoak and Ryan Zimmerman as primary 1Bs. Adrian Gonzalez was more or less the same player as Mauer last year. A .750 batting 1B isn't an automatic dealbreaker in today's game. Sure as heck don't punt two seasons because of that guy. Find a way to make it work, other teams did.

[Mike Sixel]

"Mauer is not part of the solution" is a bad excuse for rebuilding. The Nats and Jays reached the Championship series with Justin Smoak and Ryan Zimmerman as primary 1Bs. Adrian Gonzalez was more or less the same player as Mauer last year. A .750 batting 1B isn't an automatic dealbreaker in today's game. Sure as heck don't punt two seasons because of that guy. Find a way to make it work, other teams did.

 

Not a fan of this logic. I mean, just because every team has a weak link doesn't mean you should settle for one. This team is not in the playoffs next year, you could lose a potential long term piece in Vargas, or not play Park to trade him.... Or you can cut Mauer.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Not a fan of this logic. I mean, just because every team has a weak link doesn't mean you should settle for one. This team is not in the playoffs next year, you could lose a potential long term piece in Vargas, or not play Park to trade him.... Or you can cut Mauer.

 

Or just recognize he isn't a lineup fixture any more and make him more of a bench player than a starter.

[Mike Sixel]

Or just recognize he isn't a lineup fixture any more and make him more of a bench player than a starter.

And carry Park, Vargas, Sano, and a backup third baseman? Tough to fit all that inn, imo.

[TheLeviathan]

 

And carry Park, Vargas, Sano, and a backup third baseman? Tough to fit all that inn, imo.

 

I assume, in that scenario, Park is in AAA or traded and that Escobar is the utility infielder.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm open to cutting Mauer.  I just don't think they will.  I think there is some glimmer of hope that he'll become a situational player and not an entrenched guy.

[EddieMatthews]

The Twins need to have the same approach as in 2009.  When Mauer comes to Spring Training out of shape again, they need to DL him and assign a personal trainer to him for the month of April.  Keep him in Florida and get him in shape, strength, endurance, flexibility.  Mauer came north in May and produced MVP numbers.

 

If that happens, Park, Vargas, Sano, etc will sort out the DH, 1B, 3B situation. 

 

Let's face it.  2017 will be another losing year, but the Twins should be setting the table for 2018 as the young players improve.  By August 2017 the infield, outfield and rotation will be more settled.  Mauer should make a contribution as a 75% 1B/DH.  His successor should have made a mark by that time.

 

If Mauer cannot get into baseball shape, then consider releasing him.  

[old nurse]

Mauer does not play well when less than 100%. He needs to plunk down some money for a trainer in the off season. All of the endless stats being posted point to the lingering leg out of spring and the quad in the late season when he continued to play wiped out the decent middle part of the season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Mauer had an OPS of just shy of .800 against RHP this season with an isoD of .111.

 

If you can't fit that guy into your lineup a few times a week, you're a 100 win team.

 

The Twins are not a 100 win team.

 

Park is irrelevant to this conversation until he proves he can hit MLB pitching.

[Mr. Brooks]

Mauer had an OPS of just shy of .800 against RHP this season with an isoD of .111.

 

If you can't fit that guy into your lineup a few times a week, you're a 100 win team.

 

The Twins are not a 100 win team.

 

Park is irrelevant to this conversation until he proves he can hit MLB pitching.

That only helps if you have a manager willing to platoon him.

If not, his assets against RHP are washed out by his liability against LHP.

Maybe you have more faith in Mollie than I.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That only helps if you have a manager willing to platoon him.
If not, his assets against RHP are washed out by his liability against LHP.
Maybe you have more faith in Mollie than I.

If you have a manager who is unable to see the benefits of a platoon, it won't be an isolated incident and the team will suffer for it. Mauer should probably be platooned but he's not the only guy. The catcher might need a platoon, the shortstop, the left fielder.

 

If we're worried about what Molitor will or will not do based on the numbers, he shouldn't be manager. One doesn't discard useful assets because the mananger refuses to use them correctly, one discards the manager instead.

[DrNeau]

 

Mauer does not play well when less than 100%. He needs to plunk down some money for a trainer in the off season. All of the endless stats being posted point to the lingering leg out of spring and the quad in the late season when he continued to play wiped out the decent middle part of the season.

 

Do you feel his poor production in recent years has a direct relation to his lack of training? You realize, that despite many comments Mauer has made (stated once that he didn't pick up a bat until February 21st, stated once that he put off training until spring, etc.), there are many who will say you must prove that Mauer does not train. They will negate comments that Mauer has made, and will disregard his stats, which are replacement-level. They will argue that since you do not spend every waking moment with Joe, that you do not really know his scope of effort. 

[Mr. Brooks]

If you have a manager who is unable to see the benefits of a platoon, it won't be an isolated incident and the team will suffer for it. Mauer should probably be platooned but he's not the only guy. The catcher might need a platoon, the shortstop, the left fielder.

 

If we're worried about what Molitor will or will not do based on the numbers, he shouldn't be manager. One doesn't discard useful assets because the mananger refuses to use them correctly, one discards the manager instead.

But the rub there is that Falvey is not allowed to discard the manager.

Of course, I'd be shocked if he's allowed to release Joe either, so it's all kinda moot.

[DrNeau]

 

Mauer should probably be platooned but he's not the only guy. 

Agree. 200 plate appearances - maximum. 

[wsnydes]

 

Automatically inserting the following stats into the 3-hole, as a rule, is tiring:

 

Joe Mauer's Ranks - 2016 MLB 1B (of 23 with qualifying ABs):
* OPS: 19th
* Hard-Hit Balls %: 23rd (LAST)
* Home Runs: 22nd (next to LAST)
* RBIs: 23rd (LAST)
* Isolated Power: 22nd (next to LAST)
* SLG: 22nd (next to LAST)
* Extra-Base Hits: LAST (ESPN)

Why does it matter how Joe's stats stack up against other 1B?  Not all 1B hit in the 3 hole.  I don't think Joe is a 3 hitter anymore, nor an everyday player, but this comparison is meaningless.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agree. 200 plate appearances - maximum. 

His split is to the dominant side of the plate and he's competent defensively. Limiting him to 200 PAs is bad use of platooning unless Vargas and/or Park play at a much higher level than they have to this point.

 

Something between 350-450 PAs is the target area for a guy who posted a .272 / .383 / .793 line against RHP last season.

 

And then there's the defensive value Mauer brings over either one of those guys. Mauer had a +6 DRS and 1.3 UZR last season.

 

Lefty split guys get 200 PAs, not righty split guys. They get somewhere in the neighborhood of 400 PAs.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Why does it matter how Joe's stats stack up against other 1B?  Not all 1B hit in the 3 hole.  I don't think Joe is a 3 hitter anymore, nor an everyday player, but this comparison is meaningless.  

 

Uh, it matters because you have to have a 1B, and you win or lose more games by having better or worse players at POSITIONS (not batting order) than other teams. 

 

100%, you win or lose if your players are better or worse by position.

 

Like, your best SP vs the other team, or your SS vs the other team's SS.....comparing him to other 1B is EXACTLY what you do to see if your team is better or worse.

 

Where a player bats? Not relevant to the analysis.....because that is in context to the other players on YOUR team...

[wsnydes]

 

Uh, it matters because you have to have a 1B, and you win or lose more games by having better or worse players at POSITIONS (not batting order) than other teams. 

 

100%, you win or lose if your players are better or worse by position.

 

Like, your best SP vs the other team, or your SS vs the other team's SS.....comparing him to other 1B is EXACTLY what you do to see if your team is better or worse.

 

Where a player bats? Not relevant to the analysis.....because that is in context to the other players on YOUR team...

My interpretation of the post I was replying to was that it was a comp to 3 hitters, which was then put into a context using a statistical comp to other 1B.  Compare one or the other, not both.  All 3 hitters are not 1B, not all 1B are 3 hitters, so comparing Joe as a 3 hitter against other 1B doesn't make sense.  Unless the post was comparing 3 hitter 1B types, which is not what was stated.  That's my point.  Just because Joe's numbers aren't favorable as compared to other 1B, that means nothing when comparing them to 3 hitters.  That's what I was trying to get at.  I think your last statement agrees with part of what I was trying to get at.

 

I don't subscribe to the batting performance by position argument since each facet of the game has no correlation to the other.  As long as the production comes from somewhere and the pieces of the lineup fit together, I couldn't care less where they play defensively.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

My interpretation of the post I was replying to was that it was a comp to 3 hitters, which was then put into a context using a statistical comp to other 1B.  Compare one or the other, not both.  All 3 hitters are not 1B, not all 1B are 3 hitters, so comparing Joe as a 3 hitter against other 1B doesn't make sense.  Unless the post was comparing 3 hitter 1B types, which is not what was stated.  That's my point.  Just because Joe's numbers aren't favorable as compared to other 1B, that means nothing when comparing them to 3 hitters.  That's what I was trying to get at.

 

I don't subscribe to the batting performance by position argument since each facet of the game has no correlation to the other.  As long as the production comes from somewhere and the pieces of the lineup fit together, I couldn't care less where they play defensively.  

 

so, we agree....don't compare him to 3 hitters, but to 1B...

[wsnydes]

 

so, we agree....don't compare him to 3 hitters, but to 1B...

Correct.  Or compare him to 3 hitters using a comparison to other 3 hitters.  I still don't really care how he compares to other 1B in the grand scheme of things as long as that production is coming from somewhere.  We may not agree there, but that's a different argument.  In micro-analyzing cases, I don't have an issue with comparing against position.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But the rub there is that Falvey is not allowed to discard the manager.
Of course, I'd be shocked if he's allowed to release Joe either, so it's all kinda moot.

Either way, you don't discard useful players because the manager won't use them correctly. You either find a way to get the manager to see things your way or you find a way to get rid of the manager.

[Willihammer]

The Pohlad's are not meddlesome owners and that culture has been ingrained in the Twins FO for years. I highly doubt Falvey will be involved to the level of platooning players or bullpen management, bunting etc. Falvey's title will be VP which on its face seems even further removed from the dugout than GM. And he's a young guy, an outsider, being put in charge of an operation the size of a major league baseball team. He's going to be heavily relying on the usual suspects for at least 1-2 years I'm afraid, including Molitor, just to keep his head above water. I hope eventually we can have a FO and dugout working in sync but I really doubt that will happen before Molitor's contract expires and possibly not at all as long as a Pohlad is owner.

[Mr. Brooks]

My interpretation of the post I was replying to was that it was a comp to 3 hitters, which was then put into a context using a statistical comp to other 1B. Compare one or the other, not both. All 3 hitters are not 1B, not all 1B are 3 hitters, so comparing Joe as a 3 hitter against other 1B doesn't make sense. Unless the post was comparing 3 hitter 1B types, which is not what was stated. That's my point. Just because Joe's numbers aren't favorable as compared to other 1B, that means nothing when comparing them to 3 hitters. That's what I was trying to get at. I think your last statement agrees with part of what I was trying to get at.

 

I don't subscribe to the batting performance by position argument since each facet of the game has no correlation to the other. As long as the production comes from somewhere and the pieces of the lineup fit together, I couldn't care less where they play defensively.

I think the point of that post was that Mollie is coming back next year, which means Joe will be the 3 hitter most of the time, regardless of whether he's good enough or not.