Alex Meyer called up to LAA

[Thrylos]

 

If I'm running the Twins, I care a lot about the Cardinals, because my organization will study best practices in the industry and emulate them. One of the things the Cardinals will probably NOT be able to shed light on is how to draft elite starters with my first-round selection because they've stunk at it like most teams have. And if we don't have a formula for drafting an elite pitcher in the first round on occasion other than by the luck of the draft order, then we have to figure out another way to skin the cat. That's my point, jimmer. Got any good ideas about what the Cardinals or any other team are doing to develop rotations? I mean, besides having the good fortune of a great order in the draft when the Verlanders and Kershaws are available?

 

Here is the composition of the current Cardinal Starters:

 

Jaime Garcia - Drafted 2005, 22nd Round
Michael Wacha - Drafted 2012, 1st Round (in the majors 2013)
Luke Weaver - Drafted 2014, 1st Round (in he majors 2016)
Lance Lynn (60 day DL) - Drafted 2008, 1st Round
Mike Leake - Free Agent 2015 (5Y/$80M - Cinci's 1st Round pick)
Carlos Martinez - Minor League FA 2010
Adam Wainwright - Traded for JD Drew in his prime - Atlanta's 1st Round pick

 

So.  They have 3 recent 1st round draft picks,  they got good scouting to get younger pitchers like Martinez as FAs and are not afraid to sign long term contracts or to trade their stars in their decline to get young rising pitching starts

 

I'd love it if the Twins do the same... 

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

You keep talking about Aces.....how about doing better than Gibson being the only decent drafted SP on the roster for how long now? 

[old nurse]

Before draft slots signability was an issue with the Twins. That is why they drafted Mauer over Pryor. The second issue is the risk/reward.  Pohlad made his money off it.   The sad truth is that many of the signable for cheaper money safe picks in the first round that Radcliff took went bust anyways.

[bird]

 

Here is the composition of the current Cardinal Starters:

 

Jaime Garcia - Drafted 2005, 22nd Round
Michael Wacha - Drafted 2012, 1st Round (in the majors 2013)
Luke Weaver - Drafted 2014, 1st Round (in he majors 2016)
Lance Lynn (60 day DL) - Drafted 2008, 1st Round
Mike Leake - Free Agent 2015 (5Y/$80M - Cinci's 1st Round pick)
Carlos Martinez - Minor League FA 2010
Adam Wainwright - Traded for JD Drew in his prime - Atlanta's 1st Round pick

 

So.  They have 3 recent 1st round draft picks,  they got good scouting to get younger pitchers like Martinez as FAs and are not afraid to sign long term contracts or to trade their stars in their decline to get young rising pitching starts

 

I'd love it if the Twins do the same... 

 

 

You're making a bogus case here. Unless you're attempting to fortify what I've been arguing.

 

Wainwright and Leake were not available for the Twins to draft, nor was Drew. And are you going to tell us you would have advised the Twins to select Wacha over Buxton in 2012? Preposterous on every level. After the Twins took Gordon in 2014, a selection largely applauded by the experts, a dozen other pitchers were taken before Luke Weaver was selected by the Cards with the 27th pick. The jury's out, but it's conceivable that Gordon is the better pick over every one of them, we don't know, so suggesting Weaver is an example of superior scouting is baseless. Lynn? Every single team in baseball passed over him in that draft, including the Cardinals. A third of the teams rejected him twice. And you want to contend that the Cards passed him by because they were so sure no other team had good enough scouting to nab him before they did with the 39th pick. Right. 

 

The Cards passed on Garcia 21 times. Every team passed on Garcia 21 times. Do you want to argue that selecting Garcia was a product of superior scouting? Nonsense.

 

Which pitching prospect would you have chosen instead of Gibson in the first round of the 2009 draft? How about Wimmers in 2010? Or even Michael in 2011?

 

 

Remember, my only argument has been that the reasons the Twins have fielded a crappy rotation has absolutely nothing do do with lousy talent evaluation or even bad development capabilities, at least any time in the last 8-10 years.

 

 

[bird]

 

You keep talking about Aces.....how about doing better than Gibson being the only decent drafted SP on the roster for how long now? 

 

You keep talking about the roster. Make the connection specifically to drafting and developing for me please. Which pitcher would you have taken instead of whom the Twins selected in any draft dating back to 2007? I recall you were in favor of Gausman over Buxton, and maybe you were right about that.

 

I think we agree that solving the rotation problem via the draft alone is ill-advised, right? All I'm suggesting is that the draft isn't the problem. In fact, it's produced far better results than is commonly thought here on TD. 

 

Of course, now watch, someone will construe that statement as a boast of superior scouting capability and as blind praise of Ryan. 

[Guest]

Here is the composition of the current Cardinal Starters:

 

Jaime Garcia - Drafted 2005, 22nd Round

Michael Wacha - Drafted 2012, 1st Round (in the majors 2013)

Luke Weaver - Drafted 2014, 1st Round (in he majors 2016)

Lance Lynn (60 day DL) - Drafted 2008, 1st Round

Mike Leake - Free Agent 2015 (5Y/$80M - Cinci's 1st Round pick)

Carlos Martinez - Minor League FA 2010

Adam Wainwright - Traded for JD Drew in his prime - Atlanta's 1st Round pick

 

So.  They have 3 recent 1st round draft picks,  they got good scouting to get younger pitchers like Martinez as FAs and are not afraid to sign long term contracts or to trade their stars in their decline to get young rising pitching starts

 

I'd love it if the Twins do the same...

 

Plus Shelby Miller was a Cards first round pick.

[bird]

 

Plus Shelby Miller was a Cards first round pick.

 

 

See? The Cards are crummy drafters. They passed on Gibson and Trout.

[Guest]

See? The Cards are crummy drafters. They passed on Gibson and Trout.

Yes, just terrible. I mean, all they did in later rounds that year, after drafting Miller in round one, was Joe Kelly, Matt Carpenter, Trevor Rosenthal and Matt Adams, as well as three other guys who've had a cup of coffee. Pshaw.

[Taildragger8791]

I'm curious why people hold Gibson up as a draft success, unless they're just talking about guys who reached the majors and aren't considering their impacts. We're looking at a career 4.63 ERA & 1.40 WHIP with one good season. He's going to be 29 next year and is trending the wrong way. If we've seen the best he'll ever be then he'll be just another fizzled-out short-lived starter like the Blackburns and Sloweys that we've gone through over the years.

[jimmer]

 

I'm curious why people hold Gibson up as a draft success, unless they're just talking about guys who reached the majors and aren't considering their impacts. We're looking at a career 4.63 ERA & 1.40 WHIP with one good season. He's going to be 29 next year and is trending the wrong way. If we've seen the best he'll ever be then he'll be just another fizzled-out short-lived starter like the Blackburns and Sloweys that we've gone through over the years.

this

[Otto von Ballpark]

Back to Meyer, he starts again tonight (Tuesday Sep. 13), this time against a contender (Seattle), at 9 PM CST.  "Still building his pitch count" according to MLB.com, so you probably won't have to stay up too late watching him.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm curious why people hold Gibson up as a draft success, unless they're just talking about guys who reached the majors and aren't considering their impacts. We're looking at a career 4.63 ERA & 1.40 WHIP with one good season. He's going to be 29 next year and is trending the wrong way. If we've seen the best he'll ever be then he'll be just another fizzled-out short-lived starter like the Blackburns and Sloweys that we've gone through over the years.

1) Because, as stated, that's actually not a bad return for that pick.

2) He hasn't been dominating but after a 10 start rookie season, he be had a 2 WAR season followed by a 3 WAR season and was reasonably durable in both 2014 and 2015 (63 combined starts).

 

Obviously, this year has been a disaster for him (and many) but before the season, people were expecting him to make a big jump - fangraphs had a nice little article on him as a potential break out guy.  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-unusually-compelling-kyle-gibson-just-a-tweak-away/

 

Personally, I don't think he's as bad as he has shown this year and we could reasonably expect a better season next year.  

[Seth Stohs]

 

I just find it odd that he was so "injured" he couldn't throw at all in MN, and now just a few weeks later he's in the majors? That's one heck of an odd coincidence. 

He'd been on a program with the Twins from early May til July 31st. He was going to start throwing for the Twins in early August. He's on the same timeline. He went through the rehab steps. It's all good.

[Taildragger8791]

 

1) Because, as stated, that's actually not a bad return for that pick.

2) He hasn't been dominating but after a 10 start rookie season, he be had a 2 WAR season followed by a 3 WAR season and was reasonably durable in both 2014 and 2015 (63 combined starts).

 

Obviously, this year has been a disaster for him (and many) but before the season, people were expecting him to make a big jump - fangraphs had a nice little article on him as a potential break out guy.  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-unusually-compelling-kyle-gibson-just-a-tweak-away/

 

Personally, I don't think he's as bad as he has shown this year and we could reasonably expect a better season next year.  

 

So...pretty much the same thing as Blackburn and Slowey then. Partial rookie season with not much to show, followed by a couple of 2-3 WAR seasons, then falling off a cliff and never really recovering.

 

Fangraphs WARs:

Slowey:

2008: 2.7

2009: 1.4 (short season)

2010: 2.3

[insert cliff]

Remainder of career: 1.2

 

Blackburn:

2008: 2.0

2009: 2.4

[insert cliff]

Remainder of career: -0.4

 

Gibson:

2014: 2.3

2015: 2.5

2016: 0.6

[nervously putting on parachute while looking out for cliff]

 

I think you can see why pointing to Gibson's first few years isn't all that inspiring.
 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Speaking of Kyle Gibson underachieving, here is a Fangraphs article about Tyler Duffey with some interesting comparisons:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tyler-duffey-the-shockingly-interesting-twin/

 

True, not every team can be the Cubs when it comes to exploiting a player's strength, but the Twins are clearly doing something or many things wrong with these guys. Meyer is just one example. 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

So...pretty much the same thing as Blackburn and Slowey then. Partial rookie season with not much to show, followed by a couple of 2-3 WAR seasons, then falling off a cliff and never really recovering.

 

Fangraphs WARs:

Slowey:

2008: 2.7

2009: 1.4 (short season)

2010: 2.3

[insert cliff]

Remainder of career: 1.2

 

Blackburn:

2008: 2.0

2009: 2.4

[insert cliff]

Remainder of career: -0.4

 

Gibson:

2014: 2.3

2015: 2.5

2016: 0.6

[nervously putting on parachute while looking out for cliff]

 

I think you can see why pointing to Gibson's first few years isn't all that inspiring.
 

True, that can certainly happen but Gibson has better stuff and both Blackburn and Slowey got hurt.  Slowey's was the more serious as his wrist never quite got right again.  But baseball is full of players that had a few good years and then a bad year or even inconsistent years.  Some of those had good years again and others didn't.  (Former Twins Francisco Liriano, Eric Milton and Kyle Lohse would qualify).  Since Gibson doesn't have the injury issue and has a bit better pedigree, I would expect that he's better but he might be cooked.  

[jimmer]

 

 

 

I think you can see why pointing to Gibson's first few years isn't all that inspiring.
 

yeah, and that mild increase in WAR from 2014 to 2015 ( and .2 is barely worth even pointing out as an improvement) had a lot to do with just the innings pitched and the higher than normal LOB% he was fortunate enough to post.  While his K% went up a bit (still pedestrian), his BB rate went up too, as did his HR rate and FIP.  

 

I pointed out lasy year around this time (and into the offseason) that I thought he took a step back in 2015 and argued we should trade Gibson before this year (hoping that GMs would just look at the ERA and innings and over-spend).  I had him as my main Twins bust candidate for 2016

 

And now it's too late to trade him.

 

And I'm sorry, a first round pitcher who does what Gibson has done is, IMO, a disappointment.

[Brandon Warne]

So, tonight wasn't great

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe the Angels are just getting him into a 5-6 day big league routine and not expecting much for results yet.

[big dog]

Tuesday 9/13  4 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3K, 2 HR.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe the Angels are just getting him into a 5-6 day big league routine and not expecting much for results yet.

He is actually still on a 70-something pitch count.

 

Still wasn't efficient Tuesday, but note all the runs came in the first two innings. He settled down a bit for the 3rd and 4th. It will be interesting to see him without the pitch count although that may realistically be spring 2017 at this point.

[bird]

 

Yes, just terrible. I mean, all they did in later rounds that year, after drafting Miller in round one, was Joe Kelly, Matt Carpenter, Trevor Rosenthal and Matt Adams, as well as three other guys who've had a cup of coffee. Pshaw.

 

 

And it's why I suggest studying what the Cards are doing to learn if they have a track record of distinction over many drafts, and if so, as we suspect, is there formula we can emulate. Or do those picks simply represent a string of luck? You know, like getting players like Dozier, Duffey, Rosario, Rogers, Tonkin, and others in middle and late rounds.

 

Do you have any ideas? What we usually get is some fluff about how this proves the Twins are bad at drafting. Which teams have a clearer pattern of success, or less failure, when it comes to the draft?

[Guest]

You're right: study the Cards.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Maybe the Angels are just getting him into a 5-6 day big league routine and not expecting much for results yet.

 

There's no question he's not up to speed, and they're terrible so I agree. But still....I think some of the previous hand-wringing was a bit hasty. I want him to do well, as he's a great dude. But there's enough other stuff to get after the Twins on as opposed to this -- at least for now.

[Taildragger8791]

 

And it's why I suggest studying what the Cards are doing to learn if they have a track record of distinction over many drafts, and if so, as we suspect, is there formula we can emulate. Or do those picks simply represent a string of luck? You know, like getting players like Dozier, Duffey, Rosario, Rogers, Tonkin, and others in middle and late rounds.

 

Do you have any ideas? What we usually get is some fluff about how this proves the Twins are bad at drafting. Which teams have a clearer pattern of success, or less failure, when it comes to the draft?

 

I don't think that the list of players you gave is comparable other than Dozier who is a blind luck steal if the power keeps up. The rest of those players, and their 1st rounder Gibson, could easily be on their way out of baseball in 2 years. They'll get a bunch of opportunities since they have some talent and this team is non-competitive, but that doesn't put the class at the same level as Rosenthal, Carpenter, Miller, & Adams. I don't care about cup of coffee guys or non-impact players when evaluating the draft/development results. Those guys don't build playoff teams and that should be the standard we're looking to achieve.

[Han Joelo]

 

I don't think that the list of players you gave is comparable other than Dozier who is a blind luck steal if the power keeps up. 

As the great Jack Handey said: "If a child gets an answer right on a test, I think you should tell them it was a lucky guess.  That way, they develop a good, "lucky" feeling about themselves."

[Taildragger8791]

 

As the great Jack Handey said: "If a child gets an answer right on a test, I think you should tell them it was a lucky guess.  That way, they develop a good, "lucky" feeling about themselves."

 

I'm not sure what your point is. The Twins certainly deserve credit for drafting Dozier, but even after a few years in the majors, and even up until 3 months ago, nobody thought he was a 40+ HR hitter. That aspect was blind luck.

[Han Joelo]

Credit for drafting him and credit for signing him to an extension. I'm not sure 'nobody' thought he was a 40+ HR hitter, though. I don't have that information. I can imagine the scout who signed him might have thought, "this kid has the intangibles to be a successful Major League ballplayer." When pressed, and asked if the scout thought Dozier might ever hit 40 home runs in a season, the scout might have said, "Not a snowball's chance in hell."

 

That, then would indicate blind luck.

 

If, on the other hand, the scout said, "sure. He's got a 1 in a million chance. Unlikely, but he could do it." That would indicate good luck.

 

If the 15th pick in the draft develops into a mediocre starter, that would indicate average luck.

 

If the 2nd pick in the draft is a bust, that would indicate bad luck.

 

Luckily, no one has hired me to be their statistician.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Credit for drafting him and credit for signing him to an extension. I'm not sure 'nobody' thought he was a 40+ HR hitter, though. I don't have that information. I can imagine the scout who signed him might have thought, "this kid has the intangibles to be a successful Major League ballplayer." When pressed, and asked if the scout thought Dozier might ever hit 40 home runs in a season, the scout might have said, "Not a snowball's chance in hell." That, then would indicate blind luck. If, on the other hand, the scout said, "sure. He's got a 1 in a million chance. Unlikely, but he could do it." That would indicate good luck. If the 15th pick in the draft develops into a mediocre starter, that would indicate average luck. If the 2nd pick in the draft is a bust, that would indicate bad luck. Luckily, no one has hired me to be their statistician.

 

That's a lot of hair splitting to try and differentiate between grades of luck. I don't even have to see Dozier's scouting report to know that the scout didn't project him to have an all-time great power-hitting season for a middle infielder. He was 165lbs when drafted, at shortstop mind you, and he hit 14 HRs in his entire minor league career. He was likely projected to have gap power with enough pop to sneak a few out. Anyone who sniffed hope for 20+ HR power this would have drafted him far sooner due to the positional bonus.

[Loosey]

 

Tuesday 9/13  4 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3K, 2 HR.

Still better than any appearance he had with the Twins.