Article: Hard Truths

[Willihammer]

Except for the part where Ryan said that he was targeting low ball, higher ceiling prospects during the deadline.

See prior comments. He said the opposite as well, and traded thusly. Its clear his intention was to get a replacement level AAA type pitcher with few hours on the arb. clock.

[PopRiveter]

What's disappointing to me isn't the trade or the returns. It's the fact that a player with that kind of talent accomplished so little when given so many chances. Of course no one would trade high-end prospects for him. He's a coin flip with every outing. That makes for a fun and intriguing player, but not a really successful one.

[DaveW]

I watched Hernandez's 7/18 start in Fenway. His "slider" is a glorified cutter with no depth. He struggles to get his changeup over for strikes, and his fastball at 88-91 (4 seam) is meatball for righthanders. Why the FO would trade for a fly ball lefthander when TF favors righthanders already, is curious to me. At least Liriano had a reasonable HR/FB rate and was lights out against lefthanders. Hernandez gave up a bushel of hits to lefthanders with his "slider" and was destroyed several times by righthanders including a gigantic Cody Ross HR that left Fenway.

 

Top it off, he kept his first pitch of the game, not first strikeout or out (ended up giving up a double to Ellsbury), suggesting a superstitious/crazy head.

Perhaps the Twins like most teams viewed more than one freaking game when deciding to take a chance on Hernandez.

 

Also FWIW: by your logic White Sox fans could say the exact same thing about Liriano when he gave up 3 HR and 7 ER in his last start against them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

See prior comments. He said the opposite as well, and traded thusly. Its clear his intention was to get a replacement level AAA type pitcher with few hours on the arb. clock.

So you're relying on a third-hand account of Ryan's wants versus what Ryan has said directly in interviews.

[Willihammer]

Perhaps the Twins like most teams viewed more than one freaking game when deciding to take a chance on Hernandez.

 

Also FWIW: by your logic White Sox fans could say the exact same thing about Liriano when he gave up 3 HR and 7 ER in his last start against them.

His line that game is not what I tried explaining. I shared my observations of his "stuff" since that 1 appearance is the only thing freely available at this (if you have mlb.tv). If you have a milb.tv account then by all means tell us what we saw on 7/18 was slower, flatter, and more hittable than what is typical.

 

Everyone knows Liriano will have days like Hernandez had, but he will have days where he is unhittable due to his raw stuff being better. Also the White Sox are purported to believe they can 'fix' Liriano. Based on a comparison of velocity and action, Hernandez will have days where he is shelled and no days where he is lights out, and can't be fixed due to far less talent.

 

Hernandez is cheaper and walks fewer hitters, that's it.

[Willihammer]

So you're relying on a third-hand account of Ryan's wants versus what Ryan has said directly in interviews.

Do you think TR considers 2 players currently on a MLB roster to be low ball, high ceiling prospects? What he has done is in direct contradiction to what you claim he said he was after.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Do you think TR considers 2 players currently on a MLB roster to be low ball, high ceiling prospects? What he has done is in direct contradiction to what you claim he said he was after.

It all depends on what else he was offered for Liriano. We simply don't know what was on the table... that could have been all he was offered.

[Nick Nelson]

So you're relying on a third-hand account of Ryan's wants versus what Ryan has said directly in interviews.

Right. I don't know who Stark was quoting in that ESPN article because it's not attributed, but Ryan was quoted directly (and extensively) as saying that focusing on guys who could help next year would be a "terrible mistake." Here's the money quote:

 

"You can go get a marginal Triple-A guy who might be here next year," he said. "Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy? I wouldn't be, but everybody has their own philosophy on that."

[Thrylos]

Right. I don't know who Stark was quoting in that ESPN article because it's not attributed, but Ryan was quoted directly (and extensively) as saying that focusing on guys who could help next year would be a "terrible mistake." Here's the money quote:

 

"You can go get a marginal Triple-A guy who might be here next year," he said. "Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy? I wouldn't be, but everybody has their own philosophy on that."

 

On the other hand, this is exactly what the interim did... I guess he has to admit that he made a mistake now...

 

Actions speak louder than words. He can say a whole bunch of stuff. What he does is what matters, not what he says he's going to do. He said that he was going to fix the Twins medical stuff and waiting for Godot before they put people on the DL. Plouffe/Capps/Pavano happened.

 

For some reason I do not believe a word that guy is saying.

[ashbury]

"Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy?

I view Ryan as a man of integrity, therefore lacking evidence to the contrary I assume no such offer was in hand.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I view Ryan as a man of integrity, therefore lacking evidence to the contrary I assume no such offer was in hand.

More importantly, he has no reason to not tell the fans the truth of the situation. Why on earth would he lie about wanting high ceiling guys and then go for the exact opposite unless he received no other offers?

 

Occam has a razor he'd like to tell you about...

[Rube]

[h=3]Below is from Ken Rosenthal of Fox sports on July 9, 2012:

 

GAMBLING ON LIRIANO[/h]Twins left-hander Francisco Liriano is 3-2 with a 2.74 ERA in eight starts since returning to the team’s rotation, but most clubs still are wary of trading for him.

 

Liriano, even during this period of relative prosperity, is averaging 4.4 walks per nine innings. The Braves have been linked to him, but why would they want a potential free agent, who is no more trustworthy than their young starters?

 

 

Better the Braves should trade for Greinke — or better still, Rays right-hander James Shields, who is earning $7 million this season, with club options of $9 million next season and $12 million in 2014.

 

Some clubs like Liriano better as a reliever. And it’s doubtful that any will part with significant prospects when under the new collective bargaining agreement, there is no possibility of draft-pick compensation if he leaves as a free agent.

 

The Twins, by the way, will listen not just on Liriano. Closer Matt Capps, recovering from right shoulder inflammation, also will be available once he comes off the disabled list, sources say.

[Nick Nelson]

On the other hand, this is exactly what the interim did... I guess he has to admit that he made a mistake now...

 

He said it would be a mistake to pass up a high-ceiling guy. There is no evidence that we was offered any such prospects; in fact, I'd say the fact that he had to settle on Hernandez and Escobar is a strong indication that he wasn't.

 

Opposing teams just didn't value Liriano the way we hoped they would. You can sit there and cast blame on Ryan or you can come to terms with the truth of the situation.

[Willihammer]

There is of course the option to float rumors of extending Liriano so as to bait potential buyers, rather than desperately shopping him to anyone who will listen.

[IdahoPilgrim]

For the record, i object to the term "nobody."

Duly noted - I should have said "almost nobody" or even better, "very few".

[Mike Sixel]

Again, the real hard lesson is that to get quality, you have to give up quality.

[jokin]

There is of course the option to float rumors of extending Liriano so as to bait potential buyers, rather than desperately shopping him to anyone who will listen.

This.

 

A club virtually bereft of quality SPs, let alone a quality "power" SP, basically gives away their only option- of any kind- at "P"SP. It is constantly preached that quality starting pitchers don't come cheaply and to wit, the Twins made curious-to-ridiculous long-term deals to the likes of utter mediocrities in Pavano and Blackburn. The play here obviously should have either been in bluffing on their intentions on Liriano long-term to drive up his value or playing chicken on the one-year @ $12Mil for the Pick or one more year of service- with the chance to deal him during 2013. The defenders of Ryan and ownership are mind-boggling. It's well-past obvious that new-blood and agressive, forward-thinking is needed desperately in this organization.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If there was no plan to offer him 12.5M, then they had to trade him. Here's the question, would Liriano accept 12.5M for a one year offer? That right there is half of the FA budget for pitchers, several of whom could be had cheaper and were far more likely to succeed. The Twins' FO pretty clearly thought that playing chicken with Liriano on a 1 year deal was flushing 12M down the toilet, so trading was all they could do. And extending him... exactly when? He clearly didn't want to do it now, and you cannot blame him. Do you do it after the 2010 season? 2011? There's risk there, and it's clearly risk the front office wanted nothing to do with. I do agree they need to be abit less risk averse, but I'm not sure that Liriano is the poster child example for this.

 

I highly doubt that there were better offers on the table for Liriano, and if 12.5M wasn't an option, you take what Chicago offered...

[MrHockey]

The White Sox say they can make him better? May be he will chew even more gum--wasn't that the key to his most recent success? I hope the Twins light him up on Tuesday. Be patient, don't swing at the slider unless it is up in the zone then swing away.

[DPJ]

I actually kind of believe Don Cooper could fixed Liriano's machanics and I hope he does so it puts even more light onto the fact that Rick Anderson isn't a good pitching coach.

[rickyhawaii]

it's the same as last year pretty much. was hoping the Twins would have traded for rebuilding instead of letting guys go. The Twins are either overvaluing their players or bluffing on asking prices right now.

[jokin]

If there was no plan to offer him 12.5M, then they had to trade him. And extending him... exactly when? He clearly didn't want to do it now, and you cannot blame him. Do you do it after the 2010 season? 2011? There's risk there, and it's clearly risk the front office wanted nothing to do with. I do agree they need to be abit less risk averse, but I'm not sure that Liriano is the poster child example for this.

 

I highly doubt that there were better offers on the table for Liriano, and if 12.5M wasn't an option, you take what Chicago offered...

They didn't necessarily NEED to extend him, just get the "message" out that they were trying everything possible in an attempt to extend him. And you are right, there weren't better offers on the table for Liriano, partly because of the Twins inability to play poker.

[jokin]

The White Sox say they can make him better? May be he will chew even more gum--wasn't that the key to his most recent success? I hope the Twins light him up on Tuesday. Be patient, don't swing at the slider unless it is up in the zone then swing away.

Easy for you to say...

[dwintheiser]

Going to agree with you on this one, Nick. Anybody who thought Liriano was in a class with the other pitchers acquired at the deadline this year was sadly delusional. Here's the evidence:

 

A) 5-7, 3.94 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, age 28

9-3, 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, age 28

C) 7-9, 3.82 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, age 33

D) 3-10, 5.31 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, age 28

 

A = Anibal Sanchez, B = Zack Greinke, C = Wandy Rodriguez, D = Francisco Liriano

All stats are this season prior to being traded.

 

And if you want to go back to last year, it doesn't look any better:

 

A) 8-9, 3.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.3 K/9

16-6, 3.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.5 K/9

C) 11-11, 3.49 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.8 K/9

D) 9-10, 5.09 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 7.5 K/9

 

Liriano was clearly not in the same class as the other pitchers on the block, and thus clearly did not warrant the same kind of consideration from other clubs.

[Oxtung]

They didn't necessarily NEED to extend him, just get the "message" out that they were trying everything possible in an attempt to extend him. And you are right, there weren't better offers on the table for Liriano, partly because of the Twins inability to play poker.

This doesn't make any sense. The Twins talking about resigning Liriano doesn't drive demand. What drives demand is a product that is valued by several buyers. If other teams don't think Liriano is valuable no amount of posturing by the Twins is going to change that. Liriano's inconsistencies, better pitchers available and buyers only getting ~12 starts is what drove the asking price.

[jokin]

This doesn't make any sense. The Twins talking about resigning Liriano doesn't drive demand. What drives demand is a product that is valued by several buyers. If other teams don't think Liriano is valuable no amount of posturing by the Twins is going to change that. Liriano's inconsistencies, better pitchers available and buyers only getting ~12 starts is what drove the asking price.

You obviously play craps.

[nicksaviking]

More importantly, he has no reason to not tell the fans the truth of the situation. Why on earth would he lie about wanting high ceiling guys and then go for the exact opposite unless he received no other offers?

 

Occam has a razor he'd like to tell you about...

He would change tunes if after saying he wanted high upsided guys, Dave St. Peter told him he wasn't going to have much payroll to work with next year and might want to think about getting MLB ready arms instead to fill out the rotation.

[jokin]

Going to agree with you on this one, Nick. Anybody who thought Liriano was in a class with the other pitchers acquired at the deadline this year was sadly delusional. Here's the evidence:

 

 

 

Liriano was clearly not in the same class as the other pitchers on the block, and thus clearly did not warrant the same kind of consideration from other clubs.

I don't recall anybody claiming that Liriano was in the same class with the other deadline pitchers. What he did have on his resume were two dominant seasons over his 6+ year career. "Selling the dream" and giving hope at recapturing that magic was part of what Twins' management needed to put at the forefront of their marketing scheme.

[snepp]

I don't recall anybody claiming that Liriano was in the same class with the other deadline pitchers.

Someone put Liriano and Anibal Sanchez into the same class just yesterday.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He would change tunes if after saying he wanted high upsided guys, Dave St. Peter told him he wasn't going to have much payroll to work with next year and might want to think about getting MLB ready arms instead to fill out the rotation.

Wild speculation and given Ryan's statements, doesn't change the fact that he'd still probably go for higher upside guys in the low minors for the long-term health of the franchise.

 

We all know that Ryan is not averse to signing budget starters (gag).