My take on the Twins GM search

[biggentleben]

So, I posted over on Call To The Pen about the GM search for the Twins, and while I don't "pimp" my Twins-related articles often, I've heard good comments about this one, so I thought I'd share.

 

Linkage

[Otto von Ballpark]

You know Beane has an ownership stake in Oakland? I am not even sure he counts as implausibly plausible.

 

I would be surprised if we interviewed a lot of big names. I think what will be most interesting to see are the more anonymous front office guys coming from other organizations.

[biggentleben]

 

You know Beane has an ownership stake in Oakland? I am not even sure he counts as implausibly plausible.

I would be surprised if we interviewed a lot of big names. I think what will be most interesting to see are the more anonymous front office guys coming from other organizations.

 

Yes, but he's also made it very clear that was an attempt to get control on the facility, hence why I mentioned the move to Target Field being a pull for him. Stakes in teams have been sold to make jobs work in pro sports before. It was a "way out there" idea regardless.

[Mr. Brooks]

It's going to be Antony.

They hired the search firm to cover their butts from criticism.

 

And, I hope to be wrong.

[Doomtints]

 

It's going to be Antony.
They hired the search firm to cover their butts from criticism.

And, I hope to be wrong.

I did not even consider that they hired the search firm just to make things look good, but you may be right.  Even if it turns out to be Antony, I hope they truly consider the alternatives.

[Vanimal46]

 

It's going to be Antony.
They hired the search firm to cover their butts from criticism.

And, I hope to be wrong.

 

I would think the Pohlad's get more criticism from fans because they did not listen to the search firm's recommendations. 

[alarp33]

 

It's going to be Antony.
They hired the search firm to cover their butts from criticism.

And, I hope to be wrong.

 

It is not going to be Antony. I really think its less than a 1% chance. They did not fire Terry Ryan who they all loved to keep the status quo 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It is not going to be Antony. I really think its less than a 1% chance. They did not fire Terry Ryan who they all loved to keep the status quo 

I think there is probably a greater than 1% chance that whatever their intentions when they fired TR, Pohlad and DSP somehow screw it up.

[alarp33]

 

I think there is probably a greater than 1% chance that whatever their intentions when they fired TR, Pohlad and DSP somehow screw it up.

 

Glen Taylor didn't screw it up, Glen Taylor didn't screw it up, Glen Taylor didn't screw it up.  

 

I just keep repeating that to myself.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's going to be Antony.
They hired the search firm to cover their butts from criticism.

And, I hope to be wrong.

I don't buy this at all. In general, I believe people are far less devious and far more straight-forward than some believe.

 

I think the likelihood of the Pohlads crafting some elaborate machination just to fool the public is very low. If they wanted to hire Antony, I suspect they'd just go hire Antony.

 

Because why not? The end result is going to be the same either way. Why create a plan with sixteen steps when one will do?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Glen Taylor didn't screw it up, Glen Taylor didn't screw it up, Glen Taylor didn't screw it up.  

 

I just keep repeating that to myself.  

Before his most recent hire, Taylor did screw up about 10 years worth of hirings, no?

 

I agree Antony is an unlikely hire, but at this point, I can't put his chances at near zero.

[Doomtints]

 

I don't buy this at all. In general, I believe people are far less devious and far more straight-forward than some believe.

 

I think the likelihood of the Pohlads crafting some elaborate machination just to fool the public is very low. If they wanted to hire Antony, I suspect they'd just go hire Antony.

 

Because why not? The end result is going to be the same either way. Why create a plan with sixteen steps when one will do?

Well ... some people are devious.  Is the young Pohlad devious?  I really doubt it.  He all but admitted he wasn't paying attention to the club until the bottom fell out.  Someone "devious" would probably have his hands all over the club.  And as you said, it seems unlikely that someone in Pohlad's position would care about public relations at least as far as this is concerned.

If Antony stays it could be more about the Pohlads not wanting to lay off an entire staff than it is about Antony -- that much is true.  They are a big-hearted organization when it comes to their employees which has contributed to the problem.  

[alarp33]

 

Before his most recent hire, Taylor did screw up about 10 years worth of hirings, no?

 

I agree Antony is an unlikely hire, but at this point, I can't put his chances at near zero.

 

Well the parallel is this time, Taylor used the search firm, same one Pohlad is using. 

 

I think we can all agree its likely the Search Firm is going to come up with 10+ names of candidates interested in the job, whose qualifications dwarf Antony's.. I just don't see anyway Pohlad and DSP look at that list and decide on Antony. 

 

Ignoring the public perception, and plummeting attendance numbers.  Which also is largely in favor of a major shakeup

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't buy this at all. In general, I believe people are far less devious and far more straight-forward than some believe.

 

I think the likelihood of the Pohlads crafting some elaborate machination just to fool the public is very low. If they wanted to hire Antony, I suspect they'd just go hire Antony.

 

Because why not? The end result is going to be the same either way. Why create a plan with sixteen steps when one will do?

Yeah, the literal reading of that theory is wrong.  I doubt that Antony was the preferred choice when they fired TR.

 

But, it wouldn't be a surprise if that happens.  They knew they HAD to look outside, but it's not clear at this point whether they really understand what going outside will actually entail (i.e. how much turnover/rebuilding might be involved).  It's still quite possible they get scared about committing to the vision of an outside candidate, over-value a strong finish to the 2016 season, etc., and put Antony in the chair permanently.  Maybe even just on a short-term deal, kicking the can down the road a bit.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't buy this at all. In general, I believe people are far less devious and far more straight-forward than some believe.

 

I think the likelihood of the Pohlads crafting some elaborate machination just to fool the public is very low. If they wanted to hire Antony, I suspect they'd just go hire Antony.

 

Because why not? The end result is going to be the same either way. Why create a plan with sixteen steps when one will do?

 

I'm not sure about the Pohlad's level of deviousness, but the common narrative with the family is that they are cheap as hell. That narrative and blowing a boatload of money on a search firm they have no intention of using don't fit together very well.

 

Though I do fear a hot streak by the team will sway ownership to keep the status quo. That would be foolish and it would be pretty hard to convince fans it wasn't a giant shell game from the start.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with Brock, life isn't some giant conspiracy*

 

*posted to avoid the spies, PM me, and I'll send you the truth!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah, the literal reading of that theory is wrong.  I doubt that Antony was the preferred choice when they fired TR.

 

But, it wouldn't be a surprise if that happens.  They knew they HAD to look outside, but it's not clear at this point whether they really understand what going outside will actually entail (i.e. how much turnover/rebuilding might be involved).  It's still quite possible they get scared about committing to the vision of an outside candidate, over-value a strong finish to the 2016 season, etc., and put Antony in the chair permanently.  Maybe even just on a short-term deal, kicking the can down the road a bit.

I think this is a pretty good example of Hanlon's Razor.

 

If the Pohlads hire Antony, I think they'll do it because they think it's the right decision. It wasn't the end point of a complex, devious plan to trick people. They'll hire Antony because they want to hire Antony. End of story.

 

I may lose my mind if that happens, though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well the parallel is this time, Taylor used the search firm, same one Pohlad is using. 

 

I think we can all agree its likely the Search Firm is going to come up with 10+ names of candidates interested in the job, whose qualifications dwarf Antony's.. I just don't see anyway Pohlad and DSP look at that list and decide on Antony. 

 

Ignoring the public perception, and plummeting attendance numbers.  Which also is largely in favor of a major shakeup

It's possible Pohlad is using the search firm only because Taylor recently used it, without a clear idea of WHY they are using the search firm.

 

The new GM will quite likely be a no-name either way, I think how the young players finish the 2016 season might be a bigger driver of public perception than whatever name they bring in.

[mazeville]

 

It's going to be Antony.
They hired the search firm to cover their butts from criticism.

And, I hope to be wrong.

 

Totally disagree. 

 

Remember: This is an organization that recently said that TR had a job for life. Most of us thought there was no way he'd get fired.

 

And then he got fired.

 

What's the point of firing him -- after saying they'd keep him "for life" -- if they're just going to hire the next guy even while hiring a search firm? 

 

The Twins aren't stupid. They see what's happening with attendance. They have to bring in someone from the outside to make changes. 

 

And I say this as a person who was a general fan of what Rob Antony just did at the deadline. Yet I think there is no way on Earth he gets the job. He might keep his own. But he doesn't get the GM job.

[alarp33]

 

It's possible Pohlad is using the search firm only because Taylor recently used it, without a clear idea of WHY they are using the search firm.

 

The new GM will quite likely be a no-name either way, I think how the young players finish the 2016 season might be a bigger driver of public perception than whatever name they bring in.

 

It likely will be a no-name, but one they'll be able to sell as different, new plan, etc.  

 

I agree and disagree on finish to 2016.. I think the casual fan is already lost, I think they stopped paying attention in June.  The hardcore fan may be encouraged by the August/September strong finish, but at the same time is probably more likely to already have a negative perception of Antony (Twins Daily frequenters, etc)

[mazeville]

 

I think this is a pretty good example of Hanlon's Razor.

 

If the Pohlads hire Antony, I think they'll do it because they think it's the right decision. It wasn't the end point of a complex, devious plan to trick people. They'll hire Antony because they want to hire Antony. End of story.

 

I may lose my mind if that happens, though.

 

Ain't gonna happen. I'd lose my mind if it happened, too. But Rob Antony won't get the top job.

[Loosey]

 

It's going to be Antony.
They hired the search firm to cover their butts from criticism.

And, I hope to be wrong.

They aren't creative enough to think of that.  Unless the first secret search firm hired this search firm to be cover. . . .

[Doomtints]

 

They aren't creative enough to think of that.  Unless the first secret search firm hired this search firm to be cover. . . .

 

You're right.  Most likely they hired this firm one of two ways:

 

1)  The asked some other GMs how they did their job searches,

2)  This firm reached out to the Twins.
 

Nothing creative, nothing sinister.  

[HitInAPinch]

The son of a banker, and banker himself, spending money on a high-priced, very well thought of search firm AND it all being a ruse to hire Rob Anthony. 

 

I've contemplated very very long.

 

NO.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, not buying the conspiracy theory here.  Pohlads are too cheap. If they wanted Antony, they'd have skipped the firm alltogether

[Vanimal46]

 

yeah, not buying the conspiracy theory here.  Pohlads are too cheap. If they wanted Antony, they'd have skipped the firm alltogether

Yep. Considering they most likely paid money up front to retain Korn and Ferry to help them with the search. If it was as easy as making an internal hire, they wouldn't have paid the money. 

[Rosterman]

You do, ultimately, have to do a certain "search for a candidate" function for general manager and manager of an organization. Thus, the search firm, who can guage those looking for a job elsewhere (anonymously) and make sure you have the proper quota of candidates set to review and interview.

 

But Terry Ryan, who was going to be let go at season's end, fell on his sword to give his protege a minor heads-up and an opportunity to be the Twins general manager, if only for a few months. Talking about a BIG opportunity. Unlike sometimes where a nearly ready-to-retire guy is slipped into the job just to keep things going, you have a viable candidate who has everything to gain, and probably nothing to lose if he just wishes to stay a company man. But even if he doesn't get the job, his own value outside the organization may increase and if what he does is good, he could leave this turbulent outfit for better grounds.

 

I won't be the least surprised if the Twins start reviewing and interviewing candidates as soon as early September, so they can announce a hire before the World Series, if not the playoffs.

 

I doubt if the Twin could entice Billy Beane away, when the Red Sox failed. 

[biggentleben]

 

Yep. Considering they most likely paid money up front to retain Korn and Ferry to help them with the search. If it was as easy as making an internal hire, they wouldn't have paid the money. 

 

I wouldn't rule out an internal hire, though. In fact, Antony is the only guy that the Twins haven't denied an interview for a job elsewhere recently, only because he didn't take it when asked if he would like the interview. Deron is the guy that I'm very, very intrigued by, in a sort of role where they hire someone more "big name" to be the Exec/VP and then hire Deron to the actual title of General Manager.

[Doomtints]

 

But Terry Ryan, who was going to be let go at season's end, fell on his sword to give his protege a minor heads-up and an opportunity to be the Twins general manager, if only for a few months. Talking about a BIG opportunity. 

 

 

Good point.  Without Ryan leaving, Antony's chance of being the next full-time GM is even smaller.  

 

But the point is ... Which of these scenarios is the real one:  is this Antony's job to lose, is he already a shoo-in, or is he facing very long odds?  Your suggestion is that it's Antony's job to lose.  And that might be true.  In fact, I would hope that is true.  If this team continues on this .600 winning clip why not keep him around a bit longer?  There is no rule about shedding an interim title after just a couple of months.  Give him an extended look next year.  Unfortunately keeping Antony on for a full year as an interim GM would be unconventional and the Twins are not unconventional types.

But I digress.  I think your suggestion is closer to the mark than the other theories -- that either Antony has zero chance or he is guaranteed the job and this is all for show.  Those are both pretty black and white options and Pohlad doesn't seem like a black and white thinker.  

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't buy this at all. In general, I believe people are far less devious and far more straight-forward than some believe.

 

I think the likelihood of the Pohlads crafting some elaborate machination just to fool the public is very low. If they wanted to hire Antony, I suspect they'd just go hire Antony.

 

Because why not? The end result is going to be the same either way. Why create a plan with sixteen steps when one will do?

For the record, my post was one part tongue in cheek, one part bracing myself against hope until I actually see a new GM landing at MSP.

It hurts less if you anticipate the punch before it lame lands.