My top 30 prospects

[diehardtwinsfan]

I updated my prospect list. Feel free to flame away.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/84/entry-8433-2016-top-30-minnesota-prospects/

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

It's a good list. Obviously we could go back and forth on a few guys. Maybe I'd have Kirilloff and Romero higher, Palka lower. Arraez lower, and so on... but I enjoyed reading your thoughts on the players and how you came about your rankings. It's also always interesting to see who has graduated and also who has moved up the most from year to year in your mind... or, for whatever reason, fallen back on your list.

[ashbury]

I paid attention to Palka in the field when I watched a game in Pawtucket a couple weeks ago, and he's not a butcher but still will be limited defensively. Half a step up from plodding, good arm but missed a cutoff man, that kind of thing.

 

He has to continue with the big bat in order to make it in the majors, and that is always a risky proposition even with a good minor league resume, because he has nothing else to fall back upon. Coming up as a DH only type, if his manager decided his was Arcia level defense, would probably be beyond his capability at the plate.

 

Still, he is someone to invest time and resources in. Could have a major league career.

 

BTW, Thomas Field at age 29 is on no one's prospect list, but I'm here to say that, in the same game, watching him fail to even go after a ball up the third base line because he apparently thought it was foul (it was not), and making an unnecessary out as a baserunner, has me thoroughly on the find-someone-else bandwagon for third base emergency-callup-dude.

[SarasotaBill]

This is how I would rank them which is mostly based on potential and who I would least like to be traded.

1. Gonsalves

2. Kirilloff

3. Jay

4. Gordon

5. Stewart

6. Romero

7. Javier

8. Blankenhorn

9. Chargois

10. Mejia

11. Burdi

12. Palka

13. Diaz

14. Jorge

15. Tie: R.Rosario, Ynoa, Thorpe, Rortvedt

[dgwills]

Nice write up. I hadn't even heard of Victor Tadeno before. Sounds like a interesting prospect. If I were nit pick I'd say that K rate for hitters in the upper miners should have more weight in the rankings. It's such a red flag and there isn't any history of guys figuring that out late and having success in the majors. Walker and Palka are pretty close to non-prospects at this point.

I'd agree that DFAing Nolasco and keeping Meyer would be preferable and that it's pretty much impossible to rate Lewis Thorpe at this point. Thorpe was starting to look really good, but who knows what 2 years off will have done to him.

[70charger]

 

Feel free to flame away.

 

What a terrible list! You ranked AJ Murray 27th!? Unbelievable. He's clearly 26th!

 

 

Seriously though, looks like a lot of work went into this, and I can't say I disagree with much of anything. Well done.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I like potential, but I think to an extent that it has to be earned. Don't have a problem with high ranking certain high ceiling guys in the lower minors, but I have to think that production matters at some point.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What a terrible list! You ranked AJ Murray 27th!? Unbelievable. He's clearly 26th!

 

 

Seriously though, looks like a lot of work went into this, and I can't say I disagree with much of anything. Well done.

 

Yeah, I've been working on this since early July.  I had a great plan for using the strikethrough font as I expected nothing on the trade market... then I had to improvise as Meyer's had already been written up. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

biggest take away I'd note is that there are still quite a bit in terms of high ceiling guys in the system.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It's a good list. Obviously we could go back and forth on a few guys. Maybe I'd have Kirilloff and Romero higher, Palka lower. Arraez lower, and so on... but I enjoyed reading your thoughts on the players and how you came about your rankings. It's also always interesting to see who has graduated and also who has moved up the most from year to year in your mind... or, for whatever reason, fallen back on your list.

 

I actually had Arraez quiet a bit higher in my first iteration and ended up dropping him out of the top 10. Don't know why, but I really like the kid.  Doing what he's doing as a 19 year old in low A is pretty impressive. 

[blairpaul715]

My quick list of top 10 goes like this:

1. Fernando Romero

2. Nick Gordon

3.Stephen Gonsalves

4, Alex Kirilloff

5. Tyler Jay

6. Adalberto Mejia

7. Kohl Stewart

8. JT Chargois

9. Felix Jorge

10 Nick Burdi

 

I left Polanco and Berrios off my list, as I expect them to soon not be rookie eligible.

[Dr. Evil]

Cool topic, nice read.

[darin617]

What about Pat Light? I feel he must be in the top 20 at least and not even in the honorable mentioned. But who are we to judge, we would never try to make a list on our own. Your list is good and some players just get forgotten. I guess you could remove the crossed out Alex Meyer and place Pat Light there and it would fit.

[Dman]

Nice job. Really enjoyed your explanations. I'm higher on Gonsalves but you can place a lot of these guys in a slightly different order.

[glunn]

Great list. Great thread.

[old nurse]

Is Arraez one of the quantity signings or quality signing I hear about on IFA.

[Pitz]

I like that you included Victor Tademo. Of course its never easy to assess guys so young and playing the DSL, but he's a guy that caught my attention early as he got off to a hot start and I've been paying attention to his box scores ever since. He's put together a very impressive season at a young age.

 

Thru 41 games:

.312/.380/.440

16 strikeouts / 14 walks

17/18 in stole base attempts

 

I asked Seth back in June if he had any info on the youngster and this was his response:

"I'm told that Tademo has a strong feel for hitting and there is a thought that he could develop power over time. His best position is 3B though he could also play SS and 2B."

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I like that you included Victor Tademo. Of course its never easy to assess guys so young and playing the DSL, but he's a guy that caught my attention early as he got off to a hot start and I've been paying attention to his box scores ever since. He's put together a very impressive season at a young age.

 

Thru 41 games:

.312/.380/.440

16 strikeouts / 14 walks

17/18 in stole base attempts

 

I asked Seth back in June if he had any info on the youngster and this was his response:

"I'm told that Tademo has a strong feel for hitting and there is a thought that he could develop power over time. His best position is 3B though he could also play SS and 2B."

 

Yeah, I've started keeping an eye on the occasional box score and he caught my eye.  The fact that he's doing as well as he is against guys much older is probably my biggest criterion for eval. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Is Arraez one of the quantity signings or quality signing I hear about on IFA.

quantity I believe.  I want to say the bonus was in the low 6 figure range.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What about Pat Light? I feel he must be in the top 20 at least and not even in the honorable mentioned. But who are we to judge, we would never try to make a list on our own. Your list is good and some players just get forgotten. I guess you could remove the crossed out Alex Meyer and place Pat Light there and it would fit.

 

The late add didn't help, but honestly, walking 4 guys per nine innings was the big issue. In retrospect, I probably should have slotted him somewhere in the 20-30 range.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Nice job. Really enjoyed your explanations. I'm higher on Gonsalves but you can place a lot of these guys in a slightly different order.

 

I'm actually pretty high on him. I still think he can be a 1/2 type guy at most, probably more likely a 2/3 guy, but that's still pretty good.  He's gotten the Ks at ever stop while being young for the league. Of course, Liam Hendricks did too, so that has to be taken with a grain of salt.

[Rosterman]

Some new names. Didn't the Twins just cut Gibbons? What we are starting to see is too many prospects, perhaps, with promise. And do the Twins bring them up too soon (and blow options and also get mixed results) or let them squander time in the minors, which means people like Adam Walker might get bypassed (by Palka). SUddenly, even a top prospect like Buxton needs to produce or he might be replaced by...Granite?!?

 

I'm not sure what the secret is and cringe when I look at a Red Wings roster full of guys who will never play in the majors, or only get a cup-of-coffee because no one from Chattanooga is being promoted fast enough. And then I look at the Lookouts and see a number of guys who will probably restart their seasons at the AA level yet again.

 

I'm having a hardtime trying to put together the Twins roster for 2017, let alone 2018 or even looking into the Baseball America future 0f 2019 (if the prospects would pan out and no trades are made). There are so many names on the cusp, on the bubble.

 

If nothing else, if the Twins play their cards right, they have an abundance of guys they can trade for a top flight pitcher or hitter in a year or two and still not hurt their on-field future.

 

Especially is some of the more prominent names from this year's draft pan out.

 

[AZTwin]

Fernando Romero and Felix Jorge were both low six figure signings in 2011 as well

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Some new names. Didn't the Twins just cut Gibbons? What we are starting to see is too many prospects, perhaps, with promise. And do the Twins bring them up too soon (and blow options and also get mixed results) or let them squander time in the minors, which means people like Adam Walker might get bypassed (by Palka). SUddenly, even a top prospect like Buxton needs to produce or he might be replaced by...Granite?!?

 

I'm not sure what the secret is and cringe when I look at a Red Wings roster full of guys who will never play in the majors, or only get a cup-of-coffee because no one from Chattanooga is being promoted fast enough. And then I look at the Lookouts and see a number of guys who will probably restart their seasons at the AA level yet again.

 

I'm having a hardtime trying to put together the Twins roster for 2017, let alone 2018 or even looking into the Baseball America future 0f 2019 (if the prospects would pan out and no trades are made). There are so many names on the cusp, on the bubble.

 

If nothing else, if the Twins play their cards right, they have an abundance of guys they can trade for a top flight pitcher or hitter in a year or two and still not hurt their on-field future.

 

Especially is some of the more prominent names from this year's draft pan out.

 

If they cut him, it was only a couple days ago as Gibbons last played on the 2nd.  The Twins handling of said prospects is definitely case by case. I do take issue though with bad management of options. You only get 3, and while you hope a guy like Buxton or Berrios really takes off in option year 1 or 2, you cannot count on it, so if you make them an early add, they better stay on the 25. That irked me about Buxton last year and Berrios this year as both were early additions to the 40 man and were optioned in the same year. The worst part is that Buxton has been optioned twice now and really has not spent a lot of time in the high minors. That time is very beneficial to them. We tend to gloss over it, but there's a pretty significant talent gap between AAA and MLB, and the win now nature of MLB doesn't always encourage good behaviors or allow that continued development. Yeah, a guy can put up sexy numbers in a short stint at AAA. It doesn't mean they've mastered all they can learn there or that a guy like Buxton still couldn't be working on off speed pitch recognition in an environment where he is actually contributing and isn't pressing b/c he's afraid he might get cut/sent down.

[drivlikejehu]

There is no such thing as "too many" prospects. Most minor leaguers aren't actual prospects. If anything the Twins are starting to get a little short on prospects, with graduations and what not.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

There is no such thing as "too many" prospects. Most minor leaguers aren't actual prospects. If anything the Twins are starting to get a little short on prospects, with graduations and what not.

 

They are short on the 'sure thing high ceiling type' aka grade A/A- type guys, but they have plenty of high ceiling players and certainly some guys who could hit that A/A- grade at some point. That was probably the one thing that impressed me as I looked through that list. A lot of guys in it have the chance to be well above average at their positions (in particular starting pitching).  Yeah, there's definitely some weakness (catching in particular) and they are missing that 'sure thing star' type guy (though they just graduated 3 such guys), but I'm not sure I'd call them short on prospects. They have plenty of guys in the pipeline that should be able to step in and contribute at a high level. As well, they will probably be able to add a pretty top shelf guy come next June.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I'm actually pretty high on him. I still think he can be a 1/2 type guy at most, probably more likely a 2/3 guy, but that's still pretty good. He's gotten the Ks at ever stop while being young for the league. Of course, Liam Hendricks did too, so that has to be taken with a grain of salt.

If I remember right even in the minors Hendricks averaged around 6.5 k/per 9, plus Gonsalves careers ERA is very low for any minor league pitcher at 2.17, so there has to be something more than him being left handed or just a good minor league pitcher. Plus Gonsalves career k rate is as good as Berrios' k rate.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If I remember right even in the minors Hendricks averaged around 6.5 k/per 9, plus Gonsalves careers ERA is very low for any minor league pitcher at 2.17, so there has to be something more than him being left handed or just a good minor league pitcher. Plus Gonsalves career k rate is as good as Berrios' k rate.

 

You're right.  I'm confusing him with someone else, but I forget who now.  We had some 23 year old striking out 9 per 9 in Rochester a few years ago that flamed out...  

 

But yeah, Gonsalves hasn't gotten love due to the ceiling, but that kid has gotten results most of his stops.  He may be in MN at some point next year if he keeps this up.

[blairpaul715]

I compiled my own list of Top 30 over the last couple days, I previously gave a quick top 10.

 1 F Romero

 2 N Gordon

 3 S Gonsalves

 4 A Kirilloff

 5 T Jay

 6 A Mejia

 7 K Stewart

 8 JT Chargois

 9 F Jorge

10 N Burdi

11 H Ynoa

12 L Thorpe

13 W Javier

14 J Reed

15 E Vielma

16 T Blankenhorn

17 P Light

18 D Palka

19 A Walker

20 B Rortvedt

21 M Melotakis

22 T Hildenberger

23 M Garver

24 Z Granite

25 L Wade

26 L Arraez

27 L Diaz

28 R Rosario

29 L Wells

30 T Cabbage

 

I left off Berrios as i feel he will soon be graduated from prospect status.

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Berrios was in the minors when I wrote this up. I don't expect him to be on the list next season.