Shelby Miller

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Right, so why trade Gibson for Gibson? 

No, no, no... It's Gibson and Nunez for Gibson.

[DaveW]

 

 

two years ago he had a .3 WAR......replacement/ terrible, which is what I said in teh earlier one, but left off that one, my bad.

Uh what on earth are you talking about, he had a 1.6 WAR 2 years ago (2014) surrounded by two seasons in which he had a 3.4 and 3.6 WAR.

Oh yeah, he was only 23 years old when he posted that "terrible" 1.6 WAR.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, no, no... It's Gibson and Nunez for Gibson.

 

I place very little value on Nunez, but I get your point....

[Vanimal46]

 

We have more data, should we ignore that data?

No, we can use the data. If his perceived value was our organization's #2 prospect 7 months ago, and now it's not perceived that way, wouldn't that be a good time to buy?

[d-mac]

 

I'd take Miller if it's a steal of a deal and knowing Dave Stewart and the Diamondbacks, it probably will be.

 

I'd like to hang on to Gibson for another year though. I think he's getting bad advice based on old philosophy. He has a sinker and it always seems to me the Twins think if a guy has a sinker he should use it to get ground balls as frequently as possible. However Gibson's slider and change are better pitches and I'm of the opinion he should be using those to miss bats with two strikes instead. He still has good velocity, I'd like to see if a new GM overhauls some of the approaches and fixes Gibson.

 

I'm glad I'm not the only one with this opinion. Poor pitch selection/strategy and subpar pitch framing I think have really held Gibson back, IMO. He has the stuff to be a much better pitcher.

[Vanimal46]

 

No, no, no... It's Gibson and Nunez for Gibson.

And Nunez alone equals what for a return? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Uh what on earth are you talking about, he had a 1.6 WAR 2 years ago (2014) surrounded by two seasons in which he had a 3.4 and 3.6 WAR.

Oh yeah, he was only 23 years old when he posted that "terrible" 1.6 WAR.

 

On fangraphs he has a .5 WAR in 2014.....my bad, I thought it was .3......like that delta matters. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, we can use the data. If his perceived value was our organization's #2 prospect 7 months ago, and now it's not perceived that way, wouldn't that be a good time to buy?

 

Maybe, but not for Gibson....

[DaveW]

 

Right, so why trade Gibson for Gibson? 

Give me a freaking break, if that is what you are going to respond to, then just don't even do it.

I clearly laid out that:
Miller is  3 years younger, more reliable (injury wise) and has more upside. If you don't want to respond to those parts, then feel free not to, but don't devolve it to that trolling garbage.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd also be reluctant to call Gibson an injury risk because he went on the 15 day DL. His velocity hasn't moved a bit this season while Miller has dipped over 1mph from previous seasons.

 

I'm more concerned about a guy who has lost velocity at age 25 than I am a 15 day stint on the DL.

[bluechipper]

 

Funny how in the offseason this topic also came up, and the proposals back then were Kepler for Miller... 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20785-shelby-miller-trade/?hl=%2Bshelby+%2Bmiller

I called him a mediocre pitcher back then and thought giving up a top 50 prospect was ridiculous. Score.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And Nunez alone equals what for a return? 

Any one stuffed animal from the second shelf.

[DaveW]

 

On fangraphs he has a .5 WAR in 2014.....my bad, I thought it was .3......like that delta matters. 

You just proved an excellent point, Fangraphs has him at .5, Baseball reference had him at 1.6

 

Maybe using (one) instance of WAR for a player (especially a pitcher) on it's on is a terrible use of the stat?

[jimmer]

 

You just proved an excellent point, Fangraphs has him at .5, Baseball reference had him at 1.6

 

Maybe using (one) instance of WAR for a player (especially a pitcher) on it's on is a terrible use of the stat?

Fangraphs and BR use different things for their pitcher WAR.  For example, Fangraphs heavily favors FIP.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

[Willihammer]

Looks like Miller served a 15 day DL stint last month for a "lingering" finger injury. Not sure how much that affected his season, or why that would be enough to bail on the guy 8 months after selling the farm to get him. Something doesn't quite smell right.

 

But, definitely worth a call.

[Vanimal46]

 

Any one stuffed animal from the second shelf.

Exactly. So why the emphasis in your previous post I responded to "Gibson AND Nunez for Miller" when you agree Nunez is worth very little? 

[HitInAPinch]

 

Unfortunately my agent negotiated a full no-trade clause just like Mauer. I'm here for life!  

You never know, there may be another job opening at the end of this season.....

[DaveW]

 

I'm glad I'm not the only one with this opinion. Poor pitch selection/strategy and subpar pitch framing I think have really held Gibson back, IMO. He has the stuff to be a much better pitcher.

I hear ya, but I dunno, I think you are letting Gibson way too far off the hook on this one.

 

A lot of the pitch selection/strategy is coming from him FWIW, he has been around long enough when he can pick his own pitches or shake off whatever he doesn't want to throw.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Exactly. So why the emphasis in your previous post I responded to "Gibson AND Nunez for Miller" when you agree Nunez is worth very little? 

Even if Nunez is a marginal asset, he's still an asset.

[Everyday Eddy]

Ervin and Nolasco for him straight up.    Rotation spot and money opens up and get a guy who could potentially be good if he figures it out.    Worst case you lost Santana for nothing, but at least you went for it.

[DaveW]

 

I'd also be reluctant to call Gibson an injury risk because he went on the 15 day DL. His velocity hasn't moved a bit this season while Miller has dipped over 1mph from previous seasons.

 

I'm more concerned about a guy who has lost velocity at age 25 than I am a 15 day stint on the DL.

His career velocity (FB) is 93.5, this year he is 92.7, while a 0.8 MPH dip is less than ideal, it certainly is correctable. It's not a big warning sign like a 3-4 MPH dip.

 

Last year his velocity was up to 94.1 (a career high), so it's not like this is a part of a bigger trend or anything. Perhaps a guy who has had 3 pretty good years to start a career is having a bad year in a terrible org with terrible coaches?

 

I'm more concerned about a guy who has a history of injuries, versus the pitcher who doesn't (and has only lost 0.8 MPH in 2/3rds of a single season)

[DaveW]

 

Ervin and Nolasco for him straight up.    Rotation spot and money opens up and get a guy who could potentially be good if he figures it out.    Worst case you lost Santana for nothing, but at least you went for it.

Dave Stewart is bad, but he isn't that incompetent to take that deal.
Santana for Miller straight up would already be the heist of the decade.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Give me a freaking break, if that is what you are going to respond to, then just don't even do it.

I clearly laid out that:
Miller is  3 years younger, more reliable (injury wise) and has more upside. If you don't want to respond to those parts, then feel free not to, but don't devolve it to that trolling garbage.

 

You keep typing more upside....what does that mean?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

His career velocity (FB) is 93.5, this year he is 92.7, while a 0.8 MPH dip is less than ideal, it certainly is correctable. It's not a big warning sign like a 3-4 MPH dip.

 

Last year his velocity was up to 94.1 (a career high), so it's not like this is a part of a bigger trend or anything. Perhaps a guy who has had 3 pretty good years to start a career is having a bad year in a terrible org with terrible coaches?

The bolded is why I'd be interested in taking a flyer on the guy... I only want to keep Gibson.

 

The Twins need starters. I have no faith in Duffey. May should be back in the rotation but he's far from a sure thing. Santana is a steady hand but it's possible he gets traded.

 

If Berrios was up and dealing, May was in the rotation and thriving, and Santana was going to stick around... Sure, maybe it's easier to trade Gibson.

 

But as it stands now, I wouldn't deal Gibson for Miller because it could turn out disastrously for the Twins. If Miller regains his form, you look like a genius. If Miller implodes and Gibson stabilizes, you deserve to be fired.

 

And I wouldn't hinge my career on what looks to be a coin flip.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd take a shot at Miller.  Just not for anything anyone has listed here.

[DaveW]

 

You keep typing more upside....what does that mean?

He is only 25, he hasn't reached his peak yet (age wise etc)

Last season he posted very good numbers across the board as a 24 year old (if he duplicated those numbers this year his value would be sky high) and 3 years ago he was a top ten prospect in all of baseball.

[bluechipper]

 

His career velocity (FB) is 93.5, this year he is 92.7, while a 0.8 MPH dip is less than ideal, it certainly is correctable. It's not a big warning sign like a 3-4 MPH dip.

 

Last year his velocity was up to 94.1 (a career high), so it's not like this is a part of a bigger trend or anything. Perhaps a guy who has had 3 pretty good years to start a career is having a bad year in a terrible org with terrible coaches?

 

I'm more concerned about a guy who has a history of injuries, versus the pitcher who doesn't (and has only lost 0.8 MPH in 2/3rds of a single season)

We're making a huge deal out of Phil Hughes 1.6 MPH dip from 92 in 2014 to 90.4 this year. So 0.8 for Miller seems pretty significant.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We're making a huge deal out of Phil Hughes 1.3 MPH dip from 92 in 2014 to 90.4 this year. So 0.8 for Miller seems pretty significant.

It's absolutely significant.

 

What remains to be seen is whether it's permanent.

 

As we saw with Hughes, even a slight dip in fastball velo can have disastrous effects on performance.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

Dave Stewart is bad, but he isn't that incompetent to take that deal.
Santana for Miller straight up would already be the heist of the decade.

Well we're due to be on the right side of a heist in MN!    And heist of the decade might have already occurred today for the yanks!

[DaveW]

 

 

The bolded is why I'd be interested in taking a flyer on the guy... I only want to keep Gibson.

 

The Twins need starters. I have no faith in Duffey. May should be back in the rotation but he's far from a sure thing. Santana is a steady hand but it's possible he gets traded.

 

If Berrios was up and dealing, May was in the rotation and thriving, and Santana was going to stick around... Sure, maybe it's easier to trade Gibson.

 

But as it stands now, I wouldn't deal Gibson for Miller because it could turn out disastrously for the Twins. If Miller regains his form, you look like a genius. If Miller implodes and Gibson stabilizes, you deserve to be fired.

Can things really get that much worse?

It's not like Gibson is some Liriano clone just waiting to be unleashed, even if he "stabilizes" we know what that looks like

At some point you have to give up something of similar value for a player in a trade, I'd much rather give up Gibson at this point then any of the legitimate prospects the Twins have coming through the pipes.

I mean if you can convince them to take a top mid teen's prospects for him, then do it! I just don't see it happening since the Diamondbacks clearly think they can compete soon.